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LECTURESLIDESFORWEEK3.pptxPPMP 20014 Tools for Complex Projects Lecture 3 for Week 3
Ziyad Abunada
Lecturer in Project Management,
School of Engineering & Technology
Higher Education Division, CQUniversity
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Tools for Problem Solving & Decision Making “If the only tool you have is a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail” Abraham Maslow.
“We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.”
Albert Einstein, Physicist, 1879-1955
Week 3 Readings
(J. Bakhshi et al., 2016): Clarifying the project complexity construct: Past, present and future!
(Julien Pollack) Complex Projects: What are they and how can we manage them more effectively?
Aspects of Complexity: Tools for complex projects
By: Kaye Remington and Julien Pollack
YouTube Video:
1st Quiz
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Reflections So Far
If managing complexity is an art. Then for there to be tools there must be methods. Surely those will be ambiguous without a scientific foundation?
Are the tools universal across project domains?
Can the tools be applied to particular phases of the life cycle?
…or be integrated into the project, program, portfolio hierarchy?
…or be aligned with knowledge areas, such as risk management?
…or be incorporated into existing tools and techniques, such as EVM reporting?
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Week 3: Reflection
If managing complexity is an art. Then for there to be tools there must be methods. Surely those will be ambiguous without a scientific foundation?
Are the tools universal across project domains?
Can the tools be applied to particular phases of the life cycle?
…or be integrated into the project, program, portfolio hierarchy?
…or be aligned with knowledge areas, such as risk management?
…or be incorporated into existing tools and techniques, such as EVM reporting?
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Chapter Overview
Defines the differences between a tool or technique, a methodology, and a theory.
Describes the results of some of the research carried out by the author and her colleagues by focusing on the tools, techniques, or approaches developed by senior project managers specifically to address highly complex projects.
Selected tools are discussed in more detail.
Concludes with a discussion of tools in application.
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Chapter 3: Tools for Complex Projects by Kaye Remington and Julien Pollack
A Case for Thinking Outside the Tool Box
One Size Does Not Fit All: Traditional Approaches versus “Systemic Pluralism”
Defining Tools, Methodology, and Theory
The Relationship Between Tools, Methodology, and Theory
Finding Tools that Suit the Nature of the Project Complexity
Whole of Project Tools and Approaches
Tool for Mapping the Complexity
System Anatomy Tool
Time-Linked Semi-Structures
Tools to Address Specific Aspects of Complexity
Earned Value
Problem Structuring and Soft Systems Thinking Tools
Complexity in Combination and Tools
Conclusion: Tools Are Just Tools
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Why we are concerned??
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Development of complex projects since 1990 (J. Bakhshi et al., 2016)
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Chapter 3: Tools for Complex Projects by Kaye Remington and Julien Pollack
Warning:
Tools in themselves are useless without the appropriate level of capability.
Most important is the capability of the governance team in:
identifying the nature of the complexity associated with a project,
ability to identify the tools or approaches needed,
ability to identify the skills and competences to apply the tools, and the willingness to ensure that the right people are engaged to deliver the project.
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Experience Project Managers (PMS) agree that the key success to successfully manage complex projects
1- Think outside the box
2-Flexible approach to management
3- Not being constraint by rules
4- Think creatively
Case of thinking outside the box
There are various Tools, Techniques & Approaches to manage complex projects with high risks
PMs use the most suitable one match the project
Otherwise, engaging others with high experience could help.
Move with the Moment!!
How does it work?
Complex Projects are different! Therefore, different methodologies are needed for each.
Authors revealed that complex PMs should vary their methodologies from one complex project to another
The best productive method is the Systemic Pluralism
Identify the system nature of the project
Adopt the pluralist approach to the tools & methods (Apply many different tools)
Be flexible to change the tools and methods.
We will explain system thinking in Ch.11
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One Size Does Not fit All!
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Traditional Vs Complex Projects
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Why is it hard to define a complex project?
Define tools, methodology and theory
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Methodology:
Is a structure of guidelines to process improve the project effectiveness.
It is both the result of, and the process of inquiry where neither theory nor practice take precedence (Checkland, 1985).
It answers How & What
If these guidelines turned to be much like following a recipe in a recipe book( formulas), then becomes a Method!
Tool:
is the most practical part in the hierarchy and uses amethodology as a reference (guideline)
Tools involve clear delineated series of steps (diagram, graphic..)
Tools choice of tool and when to use that tool are dependent on the problem to be solved.
Although, tools and technique can be used interchangeably, Tools can be described as a way to complete a technique
Technique
Is concerned with both the skill and ability of doing or achieving something and the manner of its execution,
In many situations, several tools should be used to ensure that the best possible solution has been achieved in a complex project
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Define tools, methodology and theory
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Figure 3-1: A hierarchical relationship between the theoretical and practical
Why
What
How
Methodology
Tools
Method
Figure 3-2: The derivation and design of methods
Enables the design of a process to select, combine, and use particular
To create a situation specific and contextually relevant
Define tools, methodology and theory
Conceptual basis and intellectual context
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Complex Projects are influenced by perception, consequence, context and extent
Perception is a function of:
past experience,
PM personal capacities,
Stakeholders,
political agenda,
cultural needs,
Technical risks
Project Scope and design
Technology, and the list goes as much as you can
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Finding the best tools
Why is it hard to define a complex project?
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The FOUR types of complexity
• The tool of classifying complexity:
Structural complexity – found in large projects with many interconnecting parts
• Technical complexity – where there are unknown technical or design challenges
• Directional complexity – where goals and goal-paths are unshared or unknown
• Temporal complexity – where there are significant environmental changes over time
Is this the ONLY classification? NO, will see nesxt!
1) Structural Complexity
The complexity stems from the difficulty in managing the huge number of different interconnected tasks and activities (WBS)
Commonly associated with large construction, engineering and defence projects.
To manage, outcomes are decomposed into many small deliverables which can be managed as discreet units.
The underlying assumption is that the individual units, when delivered, will come together to make the required whole
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2) Technical complexity
First Time Projects, technical or design problems
associated with products that have never been produced before.
Complexity stems from interconnection between multiple interdependent solution options
Challenge in managing the critical design phases,
Challenge in managing contracts to deliver solutions to ill-defined design and technical problems and
Challenge in managing the expectations of key stakeholders.
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3) Directional complexity
Characterized by unshared goals and goal
paths, unclear meanings and hidden agendas
Complexity stems from ambiguity related to ambiguity of goals and objectives
Challenges associated with the allocation of adequate time during project definition
Managing relationships and organisational politics often become the keys to success
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4) Temporal complexity
Complexity stems from uncertainty regarding future constraints, the expectation of change and possibly even the future existence of the system
Unanticipated environmental impacts significant enough to seriously destabilise the project
Unexpected legislative changes, civil unrest and catastrophes, or the development of new technologies, changes of government..
Usually in long duration projects where delays due to external factors
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Relationship Between Time and Complexity Type
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(Remington, 2006)
How can one understand this knowing the complexity type?
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Allocation of role descriptions in complex projects
Finding the best tools
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Tools for managing complexity
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Technical tools
Schedule tools
Cost tools
Finance tools
Context tools
Radar diagram to estimate complexity level!
See tutorial week 3
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Process for Selection the tool!
(recall from PPMP20007!) EV measures the project cost and schedule performance by analysing the cost and the schedule variance along the cost and schedule efficiency
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How does complexity vary form a project to another?
(Recall from PPMP20007!) EV measures the project cost and schedule performance by analysing the cost and the schedule variance along the cost and schedule efficiency
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Earned Value as a Tool for managing complexity
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Decision-making framework
Root cause analysis
Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA)
Decision trees (bottom up approach)
Optimization
Theory of Constraints (TOC)
Force field analysis
Problem Solving and Decision Making Tools
Decision-Making Framework
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Framing
Identifying and framing the issue or problem
Gathering intelligence
Generating or determining possible courses of action and evaluating those alternatives
Coming to conclusions
Choosing and implementing the best solution or alternative
Learning from feedback
Reviewing and reflecting on the above steps and outcomes
Process Mapping Steps
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Assemble and train the team.
Determine process boundaries and desired level of detail.
Determine and order major process tasks.
Draw a formal flowchart.
Check the accuracy of the formal flowchart.
Collect more data and information as needed.
Root Cause Analysis
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Structured, step-by-step techniques for problem solving
Aimed at determining and correcting the ultimate causes of a problem
What happened?
Why did it happen?
What can be done to prevent it from happening again?
Ask why the condition occurred.
Ask why for each answer (five times is a good rule of thumb).
Cause Effect Diagram
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Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
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Failure mode: What could go wrong?
Failure causes: Why would the failure happen?
Failure effects: What would be the consequences of failure?
Table for FMEA: Step analysis
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Optimization (Multi Criteria Analysis)
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A technique used to determine the optimal allocation of limited resources, given a desired goal
Objective
Maximize profit or revenue
Minimize cost
Better alternative based on the available conditions
Generate alternatives and form the criteria
Assign weights for each factor within the alternative
and given weights (+/-)
Standardized the process and rank the alternatives accordingly
See tutorial 2 for more details.
Example: Optimization
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Complexity estimate
The use of the tools is highly dependent on the complexity type, scale and extent
Tools can not be used unless the degree of complexity is identified
Many tools are used to estimate project’s complexity
The following slides will be discussed in tutorials
Existing project complexity measures: Aassessing the management complexity of projects
There are 3 kinds of project complexity measures in LR.
1- Computational complexity of some project management issues like scheduling.
2-Related to a model of the project structure as a graph as PERT, WBS
3- The third group gathers more holistic measures such as systems thinking oriented measures or informational measures
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| Stability of the overall project context | Project context is unstable, phase deliverables are poorly defined, scope changes are frequent |
| Number of distinct disciplines | Develop a new drug could include medical researchers, marketing staff, manufacturing experts, lawyers, and others |
| Magnitude of legal, social, or environmental implications | More stakeholders will be involved when constructing nuclear plant near urban center |
| Overall expected financial impact | How big the project compared to the organization so failure will be collective |
| Strategic importance of the project to the organisation | Not every project can be of equal importance to the organisation or organisations involved |
| Stakeholder cohesion regarding the characteristics of the product | How much the stakeholders agree on the project and satisfy as a whole (no interests) |
| Number and variety of interfaces between the project and other organisational entities | The large number of different disciplines on a project can create a management challenge |
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The Crawford-Ishikura 7 factor table (CIFTER)
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Project Complexity Assessment Scorecard
| Questions | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | sum |
| 1. How many years is the project? (1 ≤1 year to 5 ≥ 5 or more years) | ||||||
| 2. What is the project value? (1≤ $100,000 to 5 ≥ $10 million) | ||||||
| 3. Where will the project be implemented? (1 = 1 location to 5 ≥ 5 locations) | ||||||
| 4. How many objectives will be pursued? (1 = 1 objective to 5 ≥ 3 objectives) | ||||||
| 5. Are the objectives new to the organization? (1 = Not new to 5 = new |
| 6. Are the objectives of a sensitive nature or high profile? (1 = not sensitive to 5 = sensitive and high profile) |
| 7. How many stakeholders are involved? (1= 2 or fewer to 5 ≥ 6 or more) |
| 8. What are the donor obligations? (1 = no reporting to 5 = quarterly reporting or more with intense donor involvement) |
| 9. How large is the project team? (1 = 2 or fewer people to 5 = 6 or more people) |
| 10. How many similar projects have you implemented? (1 = 5 or more to 5 = zero |
Add up all scores and find:
Simple Projects: 9-18, Complex Projects: 19 – 30, Very Complex Projects: 31 or higher
Complexity Indicators
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| 1. Project Objectives: this indicator covers the complexity originating from vague, exacting, and mutually conflicting goals, objectives, requirements, and expectations. | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 2. Processes, methods, tools, and techniques this indicator covers the complexity related to the number of tasks, assumptions and constraints, and their interdependence; the processes and process quality requirements; the team and communication structure; and the availability of supporting methods, tools, and techniques. |
Each indicator should be estimated in a scale of 1 to 4
| 3. Resources including finance: this indicator covers complexities relating to acquiring and funding the necessary budgets & sources; the diversity or lack of availability of resources (both human and other); and the processes and activities needed to manage the financial and resource aspects, including procurement. |
| 4. Risk and opportunities (risk-related complexity): this indicator covers complexity related to the risk profile(s) and uncertainty levels of the project, program, or portfolio and dependent initiatives. |
Very low= 1, Low= 2, High =3, Very High=4
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| 5. Stakeholders : this indicator covers the influence of formal strategy from the sponsoring organization(s) and the standards, regulations, informal strategies, politics which may influence the project, program, or portfolio. Other factors include the measure of agreement among stakeholders; the informal power, interests, and resistance surrounding the project, program, or portfolio; and any legal or regulatory requirements. |
| 6. Relations with permanent organizations: this indicator covers the amount and interrelatedness of the interfaces of the project, program, or portfolio with the organization's systems, structures, reporting, and decision-making processes. |
| 7. Cultural and social context (socio-cultural complexity): this indicator covers complexity resulting from socio-cultural dynamics. These may include interfaces with participants, stakeholders, or organizations from different socio-cultural backgrounds or having to deal with distributed teams. |
| 8. Leadership, teamwork, and decisions : this indicator covers the management and leadership requirements from within the project, program, or portfolio. This indicator focuses on the complexity originating from the relationship with the team(s) and their maturity and hence the vision, guidance, and steering the team requires to deliver. |
Complexity Indicators
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| 9. Degree of innovation and general conditions :this indicator covers the complexity originating from the degree of technical innovation of the project, program, or portfolio. This indicator may focus on the learning and associated resourcefulness required to innovate and/or work with unfamiliar outcomes, approaches, processes, tools, or methods. |
| 10. Demand for coordination: this indicator covers the amount of autonomy and responsibility that the project, program, or portfolio manager/leader has been given or has taken/shown. This indicator focuses on coordinating, communicating, promoting, and defending the project, program, or portfolio interests with others. |
Very low= 1, Low= 2, High =3, Very High=4
Complexity Indicators Ranking Delphi Study
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Sharareh Kermanshachi et al.(2016)
Relative Complexity Index
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Complexity Indicator Weighting
Ranking results demonstrate the complexity indicators, BUT does not clarify the difference in magnitude of their impact.
The weight factor (Wi) of complexity indicators were calculated by: ratio of the score of each indicator over the sum of all the complexity indicators’ scores as follows
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relative complexity
Index
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