Religious-pilgrimage system

|

LECTURE 1.1: NATURAL HAZARDS 1 MAY 2020

HRV, FALL 2020

Introduction

•  Natural Hazards •  Definition and Characteristics •  Frequency & Probability

•  Magnitude •  Hazard Matrix

•  Homework Assignment

DD/MM/YYYY DOCUMENT TITLE 2

Basic Characteristics of Natural Hazards

How are they generated?

They are a natural process

Can humans control them?

No, they occur independently of human actions

Can humans predict them?

Yes, with sufficient scientific analysis, when and where they occur can be

forecasted with varying degrees of accuracy.

Can humans indirectly affect them?

Yes, important examples include deforestation, pandemics, and global warming.

DD/MM/YYYY LECTURE 1.1: NATURAL HAZARDS 3

Frequency

What does frequency mean?

It is a measure of how often an actions occurs over a given period of time.

Examples: prayer calls per day, royal decrees/month, vacations per year,

What are the units used to measure frequency?

Number of occurrences/time

Examples of frequency at KFSC?

Classes per day, cadets punished/week, cadets graduating/year

Examples of frequency for natural hazards?

rainfall/day, area burned/month, severe sandstorms/year

DD/MM/YYYY LECTURE 1.1: NATURAL HAZARDS 4

Frequency Question

Given: 20 car accidents occur each day.

Objective:

1.  Determine the frequency of accidents each month.

2. Determine the frequency of accidents each year.

DD/MM/YYYY LECTURE 1.1: NATURAL HAZARDS 5

Frequency Answer

Analysis: 20 car accidents/day x 30 days/month

= 600 car accidents/month

Analysis: 20 car accidents/day x 365 days/year

=7,300 car accidents/year

DD/MM/YYYY LECTURE 1.1: NATURAL HAZARDS 6

Probability

What does probability mean?

It is a measure of chance or uncertainty

A low probability of 0.1 means the event is unlikely to occur.

A high probability of 0.9 means the event is likely to occur.

Basic definition?

The ratio of actual number of outcomes/possible number of outcomes.

So, it cannot be less than 0, nor can it be greater than 1

Examples at KFSC

The chance you will get an A in this course, the chance a cadet will not graduate, the chance a cadet will

get sick today.

How is it related to frequency?

Frequency is used to determine probability of an occurrence measured in time

Example: what is the chance that the cadets will receive a student day this week?

DD/MM/YYYY LECTURE 1.1: NATURAL HAZARDS 7

Probability Question I

Given: the frequency of accidental fires in a country’s military facilities is 3 per month.

Object: Determine the probability that a fire will occur today?

DD/MM/YYYY LECTURE 1.1: NATURAL HAZARDS 8

Probability Answer I

Analysis: 3 days of fire/month x 1 month/30 days

= 3 days/30 days = 1/10

Solution: The probability is 0.1 or 10%

DD/MM/YYYY LECTURE 1.1: NATURAL HAZARDS 9

Probability Question II

Given: the frequency of major sandstorms in Riyadh is 4 per year.

Objective: Determine the probability that a sandstorm will occur this day

DD/MM/YYYY LECTURE 1.1: NATURAL HAZARDS 10

Probability Answer II

Analysis: 4 days of sandstorms/year x 1 year/365 days

= 4 days/365 days

Solution: Probability is 0.0109 = 1.09%

DD/MM/YYYY LECTURE 1.1: NATURAL HAZARDS 11

Magnitude

What does the magnitude of a natural hazard mean?

It is a physical measurement of quantity: length, size, energy, depth, speed

How is it related to the destruction caused?

Magnitude of a natural hazard is directly proportional to the potential destruction it can inflict on a

valued asset.

Examples of magnitudes of natural hazard examples?

Earthquakes: energy released by shifting tectonic plantes

Floods: depth of water rise

Tsunamis: height of wave

Droughts: decline in rainfall, dryness of soil

Sand storm: density and speed

Pandemic: lethality and transmission rate

DD/MM/YYYY LECTURE 1.1: NATURAL HAZARDS 12

Hazard Magnitude Scales

Hurricane: Saffir-Simpson Scale (1-5)

Earthquake: Richter Scale (3-9)

Tornado: Fujita-Pearson Scale (F0-F5)

Wind/Waves: Beaufort Wind Scale (1-12)

Brush Fire: Haines Index (2-6)

DD/MM/YYYY DOCUMENT TITLE 13

Key Characteristic of Natural Hazards

Relationship between natural hazard and valued asset?

Short term: Characteristic of hazard has effect on the magnitude and

frequency of natural hazards.

Long term: human actions can affect the magnitude and frequency of some

natural hazards.

Can the asset affect the magnitude and frequency of the natural hazard? Tsunami? No, they are usually generated by earthquakes.

Heavy Rainfall? Only when related to global warming

Dust storm? Only when related to deforestation or global warming

Brush fire? Yes, when forests are allowed to develop a lot of dry brush

Pandemic? Yes, when related to the eating of wild animals or technological transmission of viruses.

DD/MM/YYYY LECTURE 1.1: NATURAL HAZARDS 14

Hazard Matrix

Example: California Natural Hazards

Probability: Low (century), Medium (decade), High (year)

Magnitude: Low (minor), Medium (significant), High (catastrophic)

DD/MM/YYYY LECTURE 1.1: NATURAL HAZARDS 15

Homework 1.1

•  Read in Chapter 2 of International Disaster Management •  Create and justify natural hazard matrix for KSA •  Discuss results with section squad

•  Improve based on squad discussion •  Describe improvements/justify rejections

•  Submit before deadline.

DD/MM/YYYY LECTURE 1.1: NATURAL HAZARDS 16