Religious-pilgrimage system

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Lecture Notes 2.1 Introduction to Vulnerability HRV KFSC, Fall 2020

I. Introduction a. The purpose of this lecture is to introduce you to the concept of

vulnerability. b. We are going to first discussion the basic concept of vulnerability. c. Then we are going to discuss two fundamental aspects of vulnerability d. We will then turn to the issue of why vulnerabilities to hazards are

tolerated in society.

II. Basic Concept of Vulnerability a. We have already studied how the losses an asset endures from a

hazard is directly related to the magnitude of the hazard. b. But the same magnitude can impose vastly different losses on similar

types of assets. c. Example I: Temperature

i. High temperatures of 120 degree Fahrenheit in Riyadh will generate some discomfort, but few people are going to die of heat stroke.

ii. By contrast, 120 degrees in Western Europe will kill tens of thousands of people and send hundreds of thousand into hospitals.

iii. Why? d. Example II: Earthquakes

i. If a magnitude Richter-Scale 6 earthquake hit California, you may have some damaged buildings, roads, and bridges, and a few dozen people dying.

ii. If a magnitude 6 earthquake struck Riyadh, you would have hundreds of thousands of collapsed buildings and fatalities, as well as devastated roads and bridges.

iii. Why? e. The answer has to do with the vast differences in vulnerability these

different societies have to the same hazard. f. Vulnerability represents the qualities a society has that determines

the losses it will suffer from an exposure to a hazard. g. These qualities can also be viewed within the categories of

i. Physical or technological ii. Social or cultural iii. Financial or economic iv. Environmental or natural

h. The characteristics of vulnerability can also be divided into categories of external defense or protection, and internal resistance or resilience

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III. Vulnerability as Weak Exterior Defenses (Protection) a. Let’s examine the concept of vulnerability in terms of external

defenses. b. When a valued asset gets exposed to a hazard, the damage it will

endure depends directly on its ability to shield or block the impact on the exterior of the asset to keep it from damaging its interior components of the asset.

c. Examples include i. the walls of old city ii. body armor, blast shields, helmets iii. national border-security stations iv. gates, fences and entrance guards protection facilities v. verification checks in private Internet sites vi. dams, dikes, and levees to protect cities from flooding vii. anti-aircraft missiles protecting cities viii. bumpers on cars and trucks ix. military units stationed in border regions to deter enemy

invasions d. These protection systems seek to limit, block, defeat or deter the

hazard so that its impact never reaches the asset in question.

IV. Vulnerability as Weak Interior Resistance (Mitigation) a. Let’s now examine the concept of vulnerability in terms of interior

resistance to a hazards impact. b. Should the hazard succeed in penetrating the asset systems external

security, how much resistance can it put up against it? c. Question I:

i. Will the system collapse immediately with catastrophic results (like the World Trade Centers after the airplane impacts)?

ii. Or will the system absorb or withstand the impact with little resulting damage (like a building with a sprinkler system that quickly extinguishes fires that get accidentally started)?

d. Question II: i. Will a few components of the asset system fail, while the overall system remains stable.

1. For example: when a commanding general of an army gets killed, buts quickly gets replaced leading to few disruptions in the chain of command.

ii. Or will the initially damaged components set of a chain reaction that causes more and more undamaged components to fail until the entire system collapses

1. For example: when a bomb strikes an aircraft carrier, (after the external defenses have failed), it causes a fire to ignite in the airplane hanger, which causes the aviation fuel tanks to explode, which causes the fire to

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spread to the ammunition magazine or arsenal, which causes a catastrophic explosion that sinks the ship.

V. Vulnerability and Profitability a. The question is, why are both external and internal vulnerabilities

allowed to persist in so many systems?