Religious-pilgrimage system

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Lecture 1.2, Week 1: Human-Caused Hazards (Intentional and Accidental) HRV KFSC, Fall 2020

I. Introduction a. Topic of today’s discussion: Human-Caused Hazards b. This refers to hazards or destructive actions that are occur by human

actors. c. Our purpose today is to

i. Review the basic features of human-caused hazards. ii. Discuss two important distinctions: intentional and accidental

hazards. iii. Discuss the defining characteristics: magnitude and frequency

or probability. iv. Create hazard matrices for both intentional and accidental

hazards for a particular asset. v. Review the homework assignment.

II. Basic Features of Human-Casued Hazards a. Both are caused by human “hazard actors.” b. Two key categories of human-caused hazards

i. Intentional hazards are those deliberately caused by humans to inflict loss, pain and suffering.

1. Private sector: terrorism, rioting, organized crime, and individual crime.

2. Public sector: military attacks, government corruption ii. Accidental hazards are those caused unintentionally through

beneficial activities that seek to promote convenience, time, money, or pleasure.

1. Industrial or business level accidents. 2. Individual or family-level accidents. 3. Yet, accidental hazards are invariable the result of

human choices c. What do both categories have in common?

i. Both occur due to choices the hazard actors make. ii. Both occur due to decisions the hazard actors make to

maximize their expected utility. iii. Expected Utility = total benefits hazard actor hopes to gain –

total costs hazard actors expects to pay. d. How do both categories differ?

i. Intentional hazard actors deliberate want to destroy to maximize their expected utility.

ii. Accidental hazard actors don’t intentionally want to destroy, but operate on false believe that their attempts to maximize their expected utility is safe because the probability and

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magnitude of the accident hazard is negligible and therefore tolerable.

e. The point is, these are socially determined hazards, not naturally occurring.

i. These hazards depend on the political, economic, social, technological and cultural orientation of the hazard actors.

ii. But they also depend on entire governments, industries, and nations.

III. Probability of Occurrence

a. Frequency: how often a particular event will occur in a given period of time.

i. Number of cadets graduating each year from KFSC (cadets graduating/year)

ii. The number of classes taught at KFSC each day (class taught/day)

iii. The number of cadets forced to remain on campus over the weekend each week (cadets detained/week).

b. The frequency data of an event is necessary in order to determine probability: the chances or odds a particular event will occur in a given period of time.

IV. Frequency of Human-Caused Hazards

a. What do artificial and nature disasters have in common? i. Both can be measured by their frequency of occurrence using historical data.

ii. Both the frequency of traffic fatalities and drowning in floods can be measured for a particular nation.

iii. Both the frequency of murders due to terrorism and crime can be measured for a particular nation.

iv. Both the frequency of industrial injuries and injuries due to earthquakes can be measured for a particular city.

v. With such frequency data, probability determinations can be made for particular time periods, as we covered last week.

V. Magnitude of Human-Caused Hazards a. Magnitude refers to the physical features of a hazard that can be

measured quantitatively. b. As we discussed last week, intentional hazard magnitudes are directly

related to the destruction potential is represents to a valued asset. c. Examples

i. Terrorist bombing: energy release, TNT equivalent ii. Armed terror attack: number of armed assailants deployed iii. Burglary: value of property stolen.

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iv. Military missile attack: speed of impact and TNT equivalent of warhead.

v. Fire: size of flames, measured by the number of fire stations deemed needed to respond (one, two or five “alarms”)

vi. Traffic accident: size of automobile deformation. vii. Riots: size of crowd. But riots also have qualitative differences:

(1) Celebratory spontaneous), (2) Spontaneous due to controversy, (3)Organized riots in continuation of spontaneous riot, (4) Riots in organized protests

VI. Independence of Natural Hazard and Asset

a. Key point about natural hazard: their frequency and magnitude is independent of the asset.

b. By contrast, the human-caused hazard highly depends on the threatened asset.

c. The frequency and magnitude of terrorist attacks against particular assets highly depends on the symbolic value of the target, as well as the level of protection it has.

d. Likewise, the frequency and magnitude of robberies in a particular neighborhood depends on the value of possessions contained in that area, as well as the ease with which they can be stolen, as well as the chances of getting caught.

e. Likewise, the frequency and magnitude of traffic accidents depends directly on the safety attitudes of the community, like the willingness to wear seat belts, obey traffic laws, and drive safe cars.

f. Also, the frequency and magnitude of industrial accidents depends directly on how the production facility is managed in terms of enforcing safety regulations.

g. In other words, the frequency and magnitude of the artificial hazard depends on the characteristic of the asset being threatened.

VII. The Human-Caused Hazard Matrix a. The human-caused hazard matrix is a way to organize and display the

magnitude and frequency or probability of the hazards confronting a particular asset

b. Example: Washington, DC.

Low Magnitude Medium Magnitude

High Magnitude

High Probability Crime: Burglary Traffic Accidents Political Corruption

Medium Probability

Building fires Political Assassination

Blackout

Low Probability Industrial explosion

Terror Truck Bombing Attack

Terror Aircraft Attack