Religious-pilgrimage system

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Lecture 4.1_Managing/Reducing the Risk of Natural Hazards HRV KFSC, Fall 2020

I. Introduction a. Overview of course so far

i. We have started by examining hazard’s probability and magnitude.

ii. Then we examine the vulnerability of an asset to a hazard’s impact.

iii. We have examined both hazards and vulnerability in order to understand risk the asset faces from the hazard.

iv. Now, we will take our knowledge of risk in order to understand the concept of risk management.

b. Today we will first examine the definition of risk management and explore the basic strategic options and specific tactical approaches.

c. Next week we will construct analytical models in order to study optimum strategic approaches that utilize these tactics.

d. Our goals for Module 4

i. Unit 1 (Week 9): Deriving basic NUG theory for natural hazards ii. Unit 2 (Week 10): Analyzing basic NUG theory for natural

hazards iii. Unit 3 (Week 11): Risk Management of accidental hazards iv. Unit 4 (Week 12): Risk Management of intentional hazards

II. Risk Management

a. Basic definition of risk management: actions taken in order to lower

the level of risk to society before the hazard strikes. i. Emergency response, for the record, is about lowering the risk after the hazard strikes.

b. So, risk management is a basic “strategic” response to risk analysis. c. But this raises some serious strategic questions:

i. How should one attempt to lower risk? ii. Is the goal to eliminate risk? iii. Is the goal to lower risk to miniscule levels? iv. Is the goal to lower risk to optimum levels to make it politically

acceptable?

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d. Basic management options based on risk equation for natural hazards. i. Risk = Hazard Probability (z) x Asset Vulnerability Probability(z) x Asset Loss (z) where z = hazard magnitude

ii. Risk Management 1 strategy: reduce hazard probability iii. Risk Management 2 strategy: reduce asset vulnerability

probability iv. Risk Management 3 strategy: reduce asset loss

e. Note: Consider terminology from Intro to Security Studies.

i. Strategy of lowering hazard probability (Mitigation 1) is called “Prevention”

ii. Strategy of lowering vulnerability probability (Mitigation 2) is called “Protection”

iii. Strategy of lowering asset loss (Mitigation 3) after the hazard impact is called “Emergency Response”

iv. Strategy of lowering asset loss (Mitigation 3) before the hazard’s impact is called “Mitigation”.

d. Note: i. The tactics that seek to increase the external protection of the asset seek to lower, dissipate, or eliminate the magnitude of the hazard when it strikes.

ii. But you cannot lower the probability of natural disasters with such protection tactics. Prevention tactics like eliminating green-house emissions is required for that.

iii. Increase the internal resistance “tactics” of the asset to

better resist the impact of the hazard in order to lower the losses it endures.

iv. Each one of these tactical options can be executive with

passive and/or active measures.

v. As we shall learn, passive measure involve investments only, while active measures involve both active and passive measures.

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e. Increasing External Protection Strategy

a. This is where risks gets mitigated by decreasing the probability of vulnerability of the asset

b. External protection strategy also involves decreasing the magnitude of the hazard.

c. Such external protection measures can involve both passive (investment only) and active measures (investment and direct or variable costs)

i. Passive investment by blocking or dissipating: 1. Levees or dikes to block flood waters 2. Sea walls such as a coral reefs or booms 3. Trees to block wind and heat, also to limit

landslide or avalanche volume 4. Wetlands to absorb flood water 5. Emergency shelters to block wind 6. Broad streets or fire walls to block fire 7. Shock aborbers in buildings to reduce

earthquake vibrations 8. Mask wearing during pandemic

ii. Active measures with space or distance:

1. Setting a camp with temporary housing for evacuees, and staffing it with support personnel who provide goods and services.

2. Weather forecasters and police patrols who can provide timely warning to set up protective measures.

3. Active training to teach people to avoid hazardous impacts (not driving during floods or sandstorms).

4. Social distancing during pandemic.

f. Increasing Internal Strength or Resistance Measures a. Internal resistance involves both the technical structure of

assets, as well as the health and well being of its human occupants.

b. Increasing the strength of structures and other technical

systems. i. Storm-proof windows, fire-resistant building material, interior possessions secured to walls to keep upright in earthquakes.

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ii. Building codes that specify structure design requirements, like extra brackets to hold down roofs during hurricanes, cyclones, or tornados.

iii. Energy dissipating devices: light roofs designed to release explosive pressure increases, pressure release values in boilers. Lightning rods to conduct electric discharge away from building.

c. Increasing the resilience of humans

i. Traditional Arabic clothing to protect against dust storms and heat waves.

ii. Emergency Fire equipment: fire extinguishers and fire resistant blankets to limit fire spread.

iii. Nutrition and vaccines to increase human body’s immune response to pandemic viruses.

iv. Emergency evacuation planning to enable people to evade from hazard impact.

v. Safety drills to teach people how to avoid harm during a hazard impact.

1. Lying down or crawling to avoid smoke during a fire.

2. Getting yourself underneath a door frame or table during an earthquake.

3. Getting inside a bathtub underneath a heavy blanket with your dogs during a tornado or hurricane.

g. Net-Utility Gain of Mitigation Investment

a. Mitigation Investment i. So, a mitigation investment is money spent on decreasing an asset system’s vulnerability from either an internal or external perspective.

ii. As an investment, it has to permanently change the asset’s security system.

iii. So, hiring guards for a day is not an investment. The capability involves a variable cost to operate a security system.

iv. Building a taller wall is an investment in enhancing the resistance or decrease the vulnerability of the asset.

b. Net Utility Gain of a Mitigation Investment.

i. Net Utility Gain of Investment = Utility After Investment – Utility Before Investment.

ii. Utility = -Risk – Variable Security Costs – Mitigation Investments

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1. Why? Because there are no benefits when a hazard strikes, only inflicts costs, losses or risks.

iii. Utility After Mitigation Investment = -R(M) – M, where

R(M) is risk with mitigation investment, M. iv. Utility Before Mitigation Investment = -R(0) – 0, where

R(0) is risk without any mitigation investment. v. Net Utility Gain = -R(M) – M – [-R(0)] vi. So, NUG(M) = R(0) – R(M) - M vii. What does this mean?

1. R(0) – R(M) = what the difference is between what gets lost without mitigation investment and what gets lost with mitigation investment.

2. If the mitigation investment is effective, then R(M) will be less than R(0) because vulnerability is reduced and less will get lost due to the hazard.

3. So, R(0) – R(M) is what the mitigation investment saves or stops from getting destroyed or damaged.

4. This is the total benefit, TB(M) function. 5. So, M then becomes the total cost, TC(M)

function. 6. Thus, NUG = TB(M) – TC(M)