Project Performance Measurement & Closure
TW7809
Larson8e_CH13_PowerPoint_Accessible.pptxChapter Thirteen
Progress and Performance Measurement and Evaluation
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Where We Are Now
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Learning Objectives
13-1 Identify the four steps for controlling a project.
13-2 Utilize a tracking Gantt to monitor time performance.
13-3 Understand and appreciate the significance of earned value management.
13-4 Calculate and interpret cost and schedule variance.
13-5 Calculate and interpret performance and percent indexes.
13-6 Forecast final project cost.
13-7 Identify and manage scope creep.
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Chapter Outline
13.1 Structure of a Project Monitoring Information System
13.2 The Project Control Process
13.3 Monitoring Time Performance
13.4 Earned Value Management (EVM)
13.5 Developing a Status Report: A Hypothetical Example
13.6 Indexes to Monitor Progress
13.7 Forecasting Final Project Cost
13.8 Other Control Issues
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13.1 Structure of a Project Monitoring Information System
A project monitoring system involves
Determining what data to collect
Determining how, when, and who will collect the data
Analysis of the data
Reporting current progress
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What Data Are Collected?
The data need to answer questions such as
What is the current status of the project in terms of schedule and cost?
How much will it cost to complete the project?
When will the project be completed?
Are there potential problems that need to be addressed now?
What, who, and where are the causes for cost or schedule overruns?
If there is a cost overrun midway in the project, can we forecast the overrun at completion?
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Collecting Data and Analysis
Will the data be collected by the project team, contractor, independent cost engineers, project manager?
Will the data be derived electronically from some form of surrogate data?
Should the reporting period be one hour, one day, one week, or what?
Is there a central repository for the data collected and is someone responsible for its dissemination?
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Reports and Reporting
Who gets the progress reports?
How will the reports be transmitted?
When will the reports be distributed?
A common topic format for progress reports
Progress since last report
Current status of project: 1) schedule, 2) cost, 3) scope
Cumulative trends
Problems and issues since last report:
Actions and resolutions of earlier problems
New variances and problems identified
Corrective action planned
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13.2 The Project Control Process
Control
Is the process of comparing actual performance against plan to identify deviations, evaluate possible alternative courses of actions, and take appropriate corrective action.
Project control steps for measuring and evaluating project performance
Setting a baseline plan
Measuring progress and performance
Comparing plan against actual
Taking action
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13.3 Monitoring Time Performance
Typical tools used for communicating project schedule status
Gantt chart (bar chart) is the most favored, used, and understandable. It is commonly referred to as a tracking Gantt chart.
Control chart is used to plot the difference between the scheduled and actual times on the critical path at a given point on the project.
Milestone schedules are often used to keep more distal stakeholders informed on the progress of a project.
Milestones are significant project events that mark major accomplishments.
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Baseline and Tracking Gantt Charts
FIGURE 13.1
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Project Schedule Control Chart
FIGURE 13.2
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13.4 Earned Value Management (EVM)
Earned Value Management
Is a methodology that combines scope, schedule, and resource measurement to assess project performance and progress.
Was pioneered by the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) in the 1960s.
Uses several acronyms and equations for analysis.
Uses data developed from the work breakdown structure, project network, and schedule.
Starts with the time-phased costs that provide the project budget baseline, which is called the planned budgeted value of the work scheduled (PV). Then comparisons can be made with actual and planned schedule and costs.
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Glossary of Terms
| EV | Earned value for a task is the budgeted value of the work accomplished. Work accomplished is often measured in terms of percentages (for example, 25% complete) in which case, EV is simply percent complete times its original budget. [The older acronym for this value was BCWP— budgeted cost of the work performed.] |
| PV | The planned time-phased baseline of the value of the work scheduled. An approved cost estimate of the resources scheduled in a time-phased cumulative baseline [BCWS—budgeted cost of the work scheduled]. |
| AC | Actual cost of the work completed. The sum of the costs incurred in accomplishing work [ACWP—actual cost of the work performed]. |
| CV | Cost variance is the difference between the earned value and the actual costs for the work completed to date where CV = EV − AC. |
| SV | Schedule variance is the difference between the earned value and the baseline line to date where SV = EV − PV. |
| BAC | Budgeted cost at completion. The total budgeted cost of the baseline or project cost accounts. |
| EAC | Estimated cost at completion |
| ETC | Estimated cost to complete remaining work |
| VAC | Cost variance at completion. VAC indicates expected actual over- or underrun cost at completion. |
TABLE 13.1
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Developing an Integrated Cost/Schedule System
Define the work using a WBS.
Scope
Work package
Deliverables
Organization units
Resources
Budgets for each work package
Develop work and resource schedule.
Schedule resources to activities
Time-phase work packages into a network
Develop a time-phased budget using work packages included in an activity called the planned budgeted cost of the work scheduled (PV).
At the work package level, collect the actual costs for the work performed called the actual cost of the work completed (AC). Multiple percent complete with the original budget amount to be earned value (EV).
Compute the schedule variance (SV = EV − PV) and cost variance (CV = EV − AC).
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Project Management Information System Overview
FIGURE 13.3
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Development of Project Baseline
Purposes of a Baseline (PV)
To measure and report progress
To estimate cash flow
Rules in Assigning Costs to the Baseline
Costs are placed (time-phased) in the baseline exactly as managers expected them to be “earned.”
Percent complete is the workhorse most commonly used. Someone familiar with each task estimates what percent of the task has been completed or how much of the task remains.
What Costs Are Included in Baselines?
Baseline is the sum of the cost accounts and each cost account is the sum of the work packages in the cost account.
Three direct costs are typically included in baselines—labor, equipment, and materials.
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Methods of Variance Analysis
Comparing earned value with
The expected schedule value
The actual costs
Assessing current status of a project requires three data elements
Planned cost of the work scheduled (PV)
Budgeted cost of the work completed (EV)
Actual cost of the work completed (AC)
Computing schedule variance (SV) and cost variance (CV)
A positive variance indicates a desirable condition, while a negative variance suggests problems or changes that have taken place.
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Variances
Cost variance (CV) = EV − AC
Tells us if the work accomplished costs more or less than was planned at any point over the life of the project.
Schedule variance (SV) = EV − PV
Presents an overall assessment of all work packages in the project scheduled to date.
Contains no critical path information.
Measures progress in dollars rather than time units.
Variance at completion (VAC) = BAC − EAC
Suggests whether the costs at completion of the project will differ from what was planned.
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Cost/Schedule Graph
FIGURE 13.4
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Earned Value Review Exercise
FIGURE 13.5
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13.5 Developing a Status Report: A Hypothetical Example
Assumptions
Each cost account has only one work package, and each cost account will be represented as an activity on the network.
The project network early start times will serve as the basis for assigning the baseline values.
From the moment work on an activity task begins, some actual costs will be incurred each period until the activity is completed.
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Work Breakdown Structure with Cost Accounts
FIGURE 13.6
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Digital Camera Prototype Project Baseline Gantt Chart
FIGURE 13.7
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Digital Camera Prototype Project Baseline Budget ($000)
FIGURE 13.8
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Digital Camera Prototype Status Reports: Periods 1–3
| Cost Variance | CV = EV − AC | |||||
| Schedule Variance | SV = EV − PV | |||||
| Status Report: Ending Period 1 | ||||||
| Task | %Complete | EV | AC | PV | CV | SV |
| A | 50% | 10 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Cumulative Totals | 10 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | |
| Status Report: Ending Period 2 | ||||||
| Task | %Complete | EV | AC | PV | CV | SV |
| A | Finished | 20 | 30 | 20 | −10 | 0 |
| Cumulative Totals | 20 | 30 | 20 | −10 | 0 | |
| Status Report: Ending Period 3 | ||||||
| Task | %Complete | EV | AC | PV | CV | SV |
| A | Finished | 20 | 30 | 20 | −10 | 0 |
| B | 33% | 5 | 10 | 5 | −5 | 0 |
| C | 20% | 20 | 30 | 20 | −10 | 0 |
| D | 60% | 21 | 20 | 15 | +1 | +6 |
| Cumulative Totals | 66 | 90 | 60 | −24 | +6 |
TABLE 13.2
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Digital Camera Prototype Status Reports: Periods 4–5
| Status Report: Ending Period 4 | ||||||
| Task | %Complete | EV | AC | PV | CV | SV |
| A | Finished | 20 | 30 | 20 | −10 | 0 |
| B | Finished | 15 | 20 | 15 | −5 | 0 |
| C | 50% | 50 | 70 | 50 | −20 | 0 |
| D | 80% | 28 | 30 | 25 | −2 | +3 |
| Cumulative Totals | 113 | 150 | 110 | −37 | +3 | |
| Status Report: Ending Period 5 | ||||||
| Task | %Complete | EV | AC | PV | CV | SV |
| A | Finished | 20 | 30 | 20 | −10 | 0 |
| B | Finished | 15 | 20 | 15 | −5 | 0 |
| C | 60% | 60 | 100 | 80 | −40 | −20 |
| D | 80% | 28 | 50 | 35 | −22 | −7 |
| Cumulative Totals | 123 | 200 | 150 | −77 | −27 |
TABLE 13.2 (Continued)
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Digital Camera Prototype Status Reports: Periods 6–7
| Status Report: Ending Period 6 | ||||||
| Task | %Complete | EV | AC | PV | CV | SV |
| A | Finished | 20 | 30 | 20 | −10 | 0 |
| B | Finished | 15 | 20 | 15 | −5 | 0 |
| C | 80% | 80 | 110 | 100 | −30 | −20 |
| D | Finished | 35 | 60 | 35 | −25 | 0 |
| Cumulative Totals | 150 | 220 | 170 | −70 | −20 | |
| Status Report: Ending Period 7 | ||||||
| Task | %Complete | EV | AC | PV | CV | SV |
| A | Finished | 20 | 30 | 20 | −10 | 0 |
| B | Finished | 15 | 20 | 15 | −5 | 0 |
| C | 90% | 90 | 120 | 100 | −30 | −10 |
| D | Finished | 35 | 60 | 35 | −25 | 0 |
| E | 0% | 0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | −30 |
| F | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cumulative Totals | 160 | 230 | 200 | −70 | −40 |
TABLE 13.2 (Continued)
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Digital Camera Prototype Summary Graph ($000)
FIGURE 13.9
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Digital Camera Project-Tracking Gantt Chart Showing Status—through Period 7
FIGURE 13.10
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Project Rollup End Period 7 ($000)
FIGURE 13.11
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13.6 Indexes to Monitor Progress
Performance Indexes
Cost performance index (CPI) = EV/AC
Measures cost efficiency of the work accomplished to date
Scheduling performance index (SPI) = EV/PV
Measures scheduling efficiency to date
Project Percent Complete Indexes
Percent complete index budgeted costs (PCIB) = EV/BAC
Percent complete index actual costs (PCIC) = AC/EAC
Management reserve index (MRI) = CV/MR
Is popular in the construction industry
Reflects the amount of management reserves that has been absorbed by cost overruns.
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Interpretation of Indexes
| Index | Cost (CPI) | Schedule (SPI) |
| >1.00 | Under cost | Ahead of schedule |
| =1.00 | On cost | On schedule |
| <1.00 | Over cost | Behind schedule |
TABLE 13.3
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Indexes Periods 1–7
FIGURE 13.12
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Additional Earned Value Rules
Rules applied to short-duration activities and/or small-cost activities
0/100 rule
Assumes 100% of the budget is earned when the work package is completed.
50/50 rule
Allows 50% of the value of the work package budget to be earned when it is started and 50% to be earned when the package is completed.
Rule used gates before the total budgeted value of an activity can be claimed
Percent complete with weighted monitoring gates
Uses subjective estimated percent complete in combination with hard, tangible monitoring points.
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13.7 Forecasting Final Project Cost
Two methods used to revise estimates of future project costs
Revised estimated cost at completion (EACre)
Allows experts in the field to change original baseline durations and costs because new information tells them the original estimates are not accurate.
Forecasted total cost at completion (EACf)
Uses the actual costs to date plus an efficiency index (CPI=EV/AC) applied to the remaining project work.
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Forecasting Models: EACre and EACf
Revised estimated cost at completion (EACre) = AC + ETCre
where AC = cumulative actual cost of work completed to date
ETCre = revised estimated cost to complete remaining work
Forecasted total cost at completion (EACf) = ETC + AC
where ETC = estimated cost to complete remaining work
AC = cumulative actual cost of work completed to date
CPI = cumulative cost index to date
BAC = total budget of the baseline
EV = cumulative budgeted cost of work completed to date
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Another Forecasting Index
To Complete Performance
Used as a supplement to the estimate at completion (EACf) computation.
Measures the amount of value each remaining dollar in the budget must earn to stay within the budget.
A ratio less than 1.00 indicates an ability to complete the project without using all of the remaining budget.
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Monthly Status Report
| Project: Red Octopus (#72) | Project manager: Xavier Hart |
| Project priority now: 4 | |
| Status as of: April 1 | |
| Earned value figures: |
| PV | EV | AC | SV | CV | BAC |
| 588,240 | 566,064 | 596,800 | −22,176 | −30,736 | 1,051,200 |
| EAC | VAC | EACf | CPI | PCIB | PCIC |
| 1,090,640 | −39,440 | 1,107,469 | .95 | .538 | .547 |
Project description: A computer-controlled conveyor belt that will move and position items on the belt with accuracy of less than one millimeter.
Status summary: The project is approximately 25 days behind schedule and $30,736 over budget.
Explanations: The schedule variance has moved from noncritical activities to those on the critical path. Integration first phase, scheduled to start 3/26, is now expected to start 4/19, which means it is approximately 25 days behind schedule. This delay is traced to the loss of the second design team, which made it impossible to start utilities documentation on 2/27 as planned. The cost variance to date is largely due to a design change that cost $21,000.
Major changes since last report: The major change was loss of one design team to the project.
Total cost of approved design changes: $21,000. Most of this amount is attributed to the improved design of the serial I/O drivers.
Projected cost at completion: EACf is estimated to be $1,107,469. This represents an overrun of $56,269, given a CPI of .95.
Forecasted completion date: October 23
Risk watch: Five team members were stricken with flu.
EXHIBIT 13.1
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13.8 Other Control Issues
Technical performance measurement is as important as measuring schedule and cost performance.
Scope creep causes problems because the “minor refinements” eventually build to be major scope changes.
Baseline changes should be allowed only if it is clear that the project will fail without the change, the project will be improved significantly with the change, or the customer wants it and will pay for it.
Data acquisition is time consuming and costly.
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Scope Changes to a Baseline
FIGURE 13.13
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Conference Center WiFi Project Communication Plan
| What Information? | When? | Mode? | Responsible? | Recipient? |
| Milestone report | Bimonthly | Project office | Senior management | |
| Time/cost report | Weekly | Project office | Staff and customer | |
| Risk report | Weekly | Project office | Staff and customer | |
| Issues | Weekly | Anyone | Staff and customer | |
| Team meeting times | Weekly | Meeting | Project manager | Staff and customer |
| Outsourcing performance | Bimonthly | Meeting | Project manager | Project office, staff, and customer |
| Change requests | Anytime | Document | Project manager, customer, design | Project office, staff, and customer |
| Stage gate decisions | Monthly | Meeting | Project office | Senior management |
FIGURE 13.14
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Key Terms
Control chart
Cost performance index (CPI)
Cost variance (CV)
Earned value (EV)
Earned value management (EVM)
Forecasted total cost at completion (EACf)
Management reserve index (MRI)
Percent complete index actual costs (PCIC)
Percent complete index budgeted costs (PCIB)
Revised estimated cost at completion (EACre)
Schedule variance (SV)
Scheduling performance index (SPI)
Scope creep
To complete performance index (TCPI)
Tracking Gantt
Variance at completion (VAC)
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End of Main Content
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Accessibility Content: Text Alternatives for Images
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Baseline and Tracking Gantt Charts - Text Alternative
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The Baseline Gantt Chart gives the following baseline durations for several activities: Activity A: Periods 1-2 Activity B: Periods 3-5 Activity C: Periods 3-6 (plus slack for Period 7) Activity D: Periods 6-8 Activity E: Period 7 (plus slack for Period 8) Activity F: Periods 9-12 The Tracking Gantt Chart Showings Status—through Period 6 (Today) Activity A: Baseline duration—Periods 1-2; Actual completed—Periods 1-2 Activity B: Baseline duration—Periods 3-5; Actual completed—Periods 3-5 Activity C: Baseline duration—Periods 3-6 ; Actual completed—Periods 3-5; Slack—Period 7 Activity D: Baseline duration—Periods 6-8; Actual completed—Period 6; Remaining duration—Periods 7-9 Activity E: Actual completed—Period 6; Baseline duration—Period 7; Remaining duration—Period 7; Slack—Period 8 Activity F: Baseline duration—Periods 9-12; Remaining duration—Periods 10-13
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Project Schedule Control Chart - Text Alternative
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A graph plots Reporting period to Time periods. A line (labeled “Today”) extends up from Reporting period 6 on the horizontal axis, parallel to the vertical axis. A dashed line extends out from Time period 0 on the vertical axis, parallel to the horizontal axis. The area on the graph above this dashed line represents “Ahead of schedule”; the area below the dashed line represents “Behind schedule.”
A line on the graph connects data points (0,0), (1,-2), (2,-1), (3,-4), (4,0), (5,2), and (6,3).
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Project Management Information System Overview - Text Alternative
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The Database is derived from the Scope Deliverables WBS and Organization OBS. The Database consists of the following components:
Work packages
Time
Resources
Labor
Materials
Support effort
Budgets
Responsibilities
Performance standards
The next step is to plan and schedule a baseline, after which Control data (Time, cost, and specifications by Deliverables and Organization) can be generated.
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Cost/Schedule Graph - Text Alternative
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The graph plots Project duration to Cost/Percentages.
A “Today” label marks the report date (time period 25) of where the project has been and where it is going. Three lines are shown on the graph. The top line represents the actual costs (AC) incurred for the project work to date. The middle line is the baseline (PV) and ends at the scheduled project duration (45). The bottom line is the budgeted value of the work actually completed to date (EV) or the earned value. The dotted line extending the actual costs from the report date to the new estimated completion date represents revised estimates of expected actual costs.
At the end of period 25, 75 percent of the work was scheduled to be accomplished. At the end of period 25, the value of the work accomplished is 50 percent. The actual cost of the work completed to date is $340, or 85 percent of the total project budget.
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Earned Value Review Exercise - Text Alternative
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Four simple cost/schedule graphs plot Time to Cost. Each graph shows lines AC, PV, and EV; in each graph, the time period is at the mid-point of the project, represented by a straight line extending up from the Time axis and running parallel to the vertical axis.
Graph 1:
Top line is AC, curving up gently from (0,0) on the graph and running up rather high on the vertical axis; it stops at the mid-point on the horizontal axis.
Middle line is PV, which runs almost parallel to AC; by the end of the project, it extends to the very top of the vertical axis.
Bottom line is EV, a gentle convex curve extending from (0,0) on the graph to about one-third of the way up the vertical axis; it stops at the mid-point on the horizontal axis.
SV = negative
CV = negative
Graph 2:
Top line is EV, curving up from (0,0) on the graph and running a bit more than halfway up the vertical axis; it stops at the mid-point on the horizontal axis.
Middle line is AC, a gentle convex curve extending from (0,0) on the graph to a bit less than half of the way up the vertical axis; it stops at the mid-point on the horizontal axis.
Bottom line is PV, which has reached about one-quarter of the way up the vertical axis by the mid-point of the project, but which extends to the top of the vertical axis by the end of the project.
SV = positive
CV = positive
Graph 3:
Top line is AC, which makes a concave curve from (0,0) on the graph to about three-quarters of the way up the vertical axis; it stops at the mid-point on the horizontal axis.
Middle line is EV, a much flatter concave curve that extends to a bit less than half of the way up the vertical axis; it stops at the mid-point on the horizontal axis.
Bottom line is PV, which is far below the other two lines by the mid-point of the project, but which curves up in a gentle “S” shape to extend to the top of the vertical axis by the end of the project.
SV = positive
CV = negative
Graph 4:
Top line is PV, which slopes up gently from (0,0) on the graph to the top of the vertical axis by the end of the project.
Middle line is EV, which extends up from (0,0) on the graph at almost a 45-degree angle to about halfway up the vertical axis by the mid-point of the project.
Bottom line is AC, which is an almost straight line extending from (0,0) to about one-quarter up the vertical axis by the mid-point of the project.
SV = negative
CV = positive
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Work Breakdown Structure with Cost Accounts - Text Alternative
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| Digital Camera Prototype Design/Build Project $320 (000) | ||||||
| Design Specifications $20 | Shell & Power $15 | Memory/Software $100 | Zoom System $35 | Assemble $120 | Test $30 | |
| Design $20 | CA 1-1 $20 | |||||
| Shell $15 | CA 2-2 $15 | |||||
| Storage $100 | CA 3-3 $100 | |||||
| Zoom $35 | CA 4-4 $35 | |||||
| Assembly $150 | CA 5-5 $120 | CA 6-5 $30 | ||||
| OBS: $320 |
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Digital Camera Prototype Project Baseline Gantt Chart - Text Alternative
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The Baseline Gantt Chart gives the following baseline durations for several activities:
Activity A (Design Spec’s): Periods 1-2
Activity B (Shell & Power): Periods 3-4 (plus slack for Periods 5-6)
Activity C (Memory/Software): Periods 3-6
Activity D (Zoom System): Periods 3-5 (plus slack for Period 6)
Activity E (Assemble): Periods 7-9
Activity F (Test): Periods 10-11
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Digital Camera Prototype Project Baseline Budget ($000) - Text Alternative
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| Schedule information | Baseline budget needs | |||||||||||||||
| Time period 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 | ||||||||||||||||
| ACT/WP | DUR | ES | LF | SL | Total PV | |||||||||||
| A | 10 | 10 | ||||||||||||||
| B | 5 | 10 | ||||||||||||||
| C | 20 | 30 | 30 | 20 | ||||||||||||
| D | 15 | 10 | 10 | |||||||||||||
| E | 30 | 40 | 50 | |||||||||||||
| F | 10 | 20 | ||||||||||||||
| Total PV by period | 10 | 10 | 40 | 50 | 40 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 10 | 20 | |||||
| Cumulative PV by period | 10 | 20 | 60 | 110 | 150 | 170 | 200 | 240 | 290 | 300 | 320 |
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Digital Camera Prototype Summary Graph ($000) - Text Alternative
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The graph plots Time periods to Dollars. “Today” is time period 7. Three lines are shown on the graph: AC, PV, and EV.
As of today, data points for line AC are: (7,230)
As of today, data points for line PV are: (7,200). Additional data points for PV are (8,240), (9,290), (10,300), (11,320).
As of today, data points for line EV are: (7,160)
SV = -40 (the difference between today’s EV and PV)
CV = -70 (the difference between today’s EV and AC)
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Digital Camera Project-Tracking Gantt Chart Showing Status—through Period 7 - Text Alternative
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The Gantt chart gives the following durations for several activities:
Activity A (Design Spec’s): Baseline duration—Periods 1-2; Actual completed—Periods 1-2
Activity B (Shell & Power): Baseline duration—Periods 3-4; Actual completed—Periods 3-5; Slack—Periods 6-8
Activity C (Memory/Software): Baseline duration—Periods 3-6; Actual completed—Periods 3-7; Remaining duration—Period 8
Activity D (Zoom System): Baseline duration—Periods 3-5; Actual completed—Periods 3-6; Slack—Periods 7-8
Activity E (Assemble): Baseline duration—Periods 7-9; Remaining duration—Periods 8-10
Activity F (Test): Baseline duration—Periods 10-11; Remaining duration—Periods 12-13
“Today” is period 7.
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