summary one page for each article ( there are 4 articles )

P O L I T I C A L D E M O G R A P H Y

Tadeusz Kugler

Introduction General Overview Data Global Political Concerns and Security Historical Political Change and Economic Development Population, Development, and the Demographic Transition Eugenics Shadow of Eugenics Neo-Malthus and the Population Bomb Chinese Demographic Structures Women’s Rights Aging Populations Demographic Dividends Youth Bulge Recovery after War Migration Considerations Immigration to Europe and the U.S. Religious Change

I n t r o d u c t i o n

Political Demography is the study of the interconnection between economics, policy, and population. Unlike the general discipline of Demography the field is not focused on the creation of demographic measurements or the refining of estimation, Political Demography concerns itself with the broad consequences upon attitudes and structure, both individual and political, from the policy choice to attempt to manipulate demography, the aftereffects of its change, and the determinist characteristic of population itself. Weiner 1971 explains that ‘political demography is the study of the size, composition, and distribution of population in relation to both government and politics. It is concerned with the political consequences of population change, especially the effects of population change on the demands made upon governments, on the performance of governments, and on the distribution of political power.’ It is then a transdiciplinary field. From Demography, it draws upon the dynamic changes in the basic foundations of human societies, that being existence itself, the future scale of population, and the location of life. Politics, though it does not always acknowledge it, is intrinsically interconnected with the demographic mix of its topics of study. Combined into this mix is a strong emphasis on economics and sociology in general. Such is the field of Political Demography, and this bibliography will focus on a selection of major topics starting with a general overview along with a discussion of literature on global political and security considerations. From there, it gives a history of the field’s development including the formation of its scholarship on economic development, modern development with the demographic transition, the basis of eugenics arguments, the substantial aftereffects (both policy and disciplinary) of those arguments, and the rise and fall of neo-Malthusian theory. Having established the roots of much of the current work, it moves to key concerns in the present and for the future of the field: a specialized section on the scale and complexity of the Chinese demographical case, the conditions shaping as well as the effects of women’s rights, the consequences of aging populations, the potential of the demographic

dividend (economic growth from a young population) and potentially dynamic changes connected to youth bulges (political consequences of a young population), issues of demographic recovery after war, migration, immigration, religious change, and lastly, a overview of the possibilities and future of available data.

G e n e r a l O v e r v i e w

A common criticism within the field of Political Demography is the lack of a standardized methodological structure or shared literature canon. Its transdisciplinary nature creates the possibility of isolation within predominantly social science disciplines, which in turn limits cross-discipline publication or shared research projects. The modern link between policy and demography in the twentieth century was established in large part by Carr-Saunders 1936 evaluating demographical shifts and the possibilities of war in the interwar period. Organski et al 1984 is an early attempt to create empirical tests between measurements of politics and demographic change. Teitelbaum and Winter 1998 use a series of case studies as a means to connect policy choice to migration to national futures. Weiner 1971 serves as the definition of the field with Weiner and Teitelbaum 2001 offering a synopsis of the modern complexities and moving to considerations of migration, nationalism, and the interconnections between demography as destiny or as dynamic variable malleable by politics. Sauvy 1969 serves as a predecessor focusing on the economic and sociological outcomes of demography. See Sellon 2004 for the evaluations of change from a central bank and policy implementation perspective. Goldstone et al 2012 exemplifies an attempt to an introduction to the field as a whole by creating a basic understanding of shared research topics with a broad selection of major works.

Carr-Saunders, Alexander Morris. World Population: Past Growth and Present Trends. Oxford, UK: Clarendon Press, 1936.

A defining book investigating statistics of declining birth rates, death rates, migration statistics, and the interaction with family size and likely governmental policy implications used to forecast possible political futures of nations, global population, and international implications of possible of ‘over population’ creating an incentive for imperial ambitions. Weighted towards European statistics with attempts to measure other large population centers such as China, United States, Japan and India.

Goldstone, Jack A, Eric P Kaufmann, and Monica Duffy Toft, eds. Political Demography: How Population Changes are Reshaping International Security and National Politics. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2012.

An edited volume designed for an advanced undergraduate or introduction within graduate school the essays within are written by leading expects in the field all of which have had extensive research agendas within their topics of specialty. The comprehensive but approachable connection to complex research is a useful characteristic.

Organski, A.F. Kenneth, Jacek Kugler, J. Timothy Johnson, and Youssef Cohen. Births, Deaths, and Taxes: The Demographic and Political Transitions. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 1984.

The volume attempts to empirically measure government’s political capacity to implement policy as a means to evaluate the possible causal relationship between policy choice and

demographical outcomes (specifically the demographical transition). The long-term security and global influences of these policies are discussed.

Sauvy, Alfred. General Theory of Population. New York, NY: Basic Books, 1969.

The culmination of an extensive career this volume argues that choice and innovation are necessities to have the possibility of social and economic gain from population growth be it via births or migrations. That the political choice to move beyond protectionism or malthusianism is a necessity and that additional population is dynamic change.

Sellon, Gordon H, ed. Global Demographic Change: Economic Impacts and Policy Challenges; A Symposium Sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 26-28, 2004. Kansas City, MO: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 2004.

Principally interested in the financial aspects of demographical change. The volume focuses on rising dependency ratios and resulting pressure on pension plans with international factor mobility. Uniquely also included is a discussion session dealing directly with political demography with the participants being major decision makers from various nations central banks.

Teitelbaum, Michael S, and Jay Winter. A Question of Numbers: High Migration, Low Fertility and the Politics of National Identity. New York, NY: Hill and Wang, 1998.

Written for a popular audience this volume moves beyond a general overview to the policy choices within countries related to citizenship, immigration, and the nuances of social acceptance of migrants (similar topics will be expanded upon in the following sections). The influence of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Yugoslavian experience are discussed from this combination of law, choice, and migration.

Weiner, Myron. “Political Demography: An Inquiry into the Consequences of Population Change.” In Rapid Population Growth: Consequences and Policy Implications. Prepared by a Study Committee of the Office of the Foreign Secretary: National Academy of the Sciences. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1971.

Widely considered the origin of the definition of political demography as a field, this essay gives an overview of its theoretical framework with future connections evaluated.

Weiner, Myron, and Michael S. Teitelbaum. Political Demography, Demographic Engineering. New York, NY: Berghahn Books, 2001.

This volume discuses key questions of the field such as the effects of diaspora or migrations to security, changing competition within countries with divergent rates of growth, global security trends, and the future of research in the field. The interactions of each are well considered.

D a t a

Political demography data is not unique to the field but that which the majority of economics, sociology, political science, and of course demography would expect. The following examples offer overviews of

current data, sources, and useful introductions. Both Lee 2011 and Gerland et al 2014 are interested in the future of the UN Population Divisions forecasts and investigate the diverging possibilities using alternative statistical methods. The primary source of global demographic data is the United Nations with one example being the World Population Prospects. See Maddison 2009 for cross national historical statistics and Lutz et al 2007 for a differing version of modem measurements, with Myrskylä et al 2013 using a differing system of fertility estimations with alternative forecasts. Livi-Bacci 2012 serves as a general guide to historical and modern measurements with Jackson et al 2013 an composite evaluation of nations ability to deal with aging populations.

Gerland, Patrick, Adrian E. Raftery, Hana Ševčíková, Nan Li, Danan Gu, Thomas Spoorenberg, Leontine Alkema, Bailey K. Fosdick, Jennifer Chunn, Nevena Lalic, Guiomar Bay, Thomas Buettner, Gerhard K. Heilig, and John Wilmoth. “World population stabilization unlikely this century.” Science 346. 6206 (October 2014): 234-237.

Although the world is aging it is still growing. This article investigates the new UN Population Divisions world population projections looking specifically at the Bayesian probabilistic methodology which estimate that at the end of the century the world will be greater than 12 billion.

Jackson, Richard, Tobias Peter, and Neil Howe. The Global Aging Preparedness Index, Second Edition. CSIS/Jackson National Life Insurance Company/Rowman & Littlefield, 2013.

Cross national (with rankings) of nations ability to deal with aging populations under estimations of social service expansions and population growth. A combination of costs, incomes, retirement policies, and other public policy choices are considered as a overall system.

Lee, Ronald. “The Outlook for Population Growth.” Science 333.6042 (July 2011): 569 -573. DOI: 10.1126/science.1208859

Methodological overview and explanations of United Nations population projections with evaluation of scales and structure.

Livi-Bacci, Massimo. A Concise History of World Population. Fifth Edition. Malden, MA: Wiley-Blackwell, 2012.

Suitable for use as a textbook in an undergraduate history or demography class. This volume focuses on a series of selected modern and historical case concerning nations and regions. The statistical profiles, modern and historical, are evaluated in terms of major questions within the field allowing for the statistics to be analyzed from a comprehensive whole.

Lutz, Wolfgang, Anne Goujon, Samir K.C., and Warren Sanderson. “Reconstruction of population by age, sex and level of educational attainment for 120 Countries 1970–2000.” Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA, 2007.

Measurements of human capital by gender, and age, cross nationally as a means to connect to morality and expectations of life.

Maddison, Angus. Historical Statistics of the World Economy: 1– 2008 AD. Available *online[http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/]* (2009)

Cross national historical dataset measuring both economics and population. Useful to increase the longitudinal nature of historical study and created both from compilation of national censuses and estimated date.

Myrskylä, Mikko, Joshua R.Goldstein, and Yen-hsin Alice Cheng. (2013), “New Cohort Fertility Forecasts for the Developed World: Rises, Falls, and Reversals.” Population and Development Review 39 (2013): 31–56. doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00572.x

The paper uses a cohort system of fertility estimation that estimates the decline in population is not as constituent as shown in other sources. The possibility of some developed nations being at or near a stable state or even with increases creates new possibilities not often seen in much of the literature.

United Nations. “Methods of Appraisal of Quality of Basic Data for Population Estimates.” Population Studies 23. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. New York, NY: United Nations Publication, 1955.

A guiding volume, available online, on the definitions of demography, its collection, and the still highly relevant problems with both data and estimation.

United Nations (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. Sales No. 11.XIII.8. CD-ROM.

The largest compressive source of demographical data cross-nationally. Constantly reviewed and revised.

G l o b a l P o l i t i c a l C o n c e r n s a n d S e c u r i t y

Global power dynamics created by population size, but also change, are of critical importance when evaluating the stability and creation of the international system (see the Oxford Bibliographies article on *Power Transition Theory[obo-9780199743292-0038]*). Organski and Kugler 1980 create the empirical framework to test these relationships at the global level with the outcome of policy being connected to both conflict and stable peace. Reconstruction and the consequences of war are also considered as countries reemerge to again influence the international system. War is in effect the policy choice to damage population and thereby needs to be studied from a demographic framework. Work such as Cederman et al 2013 considers the causal relationship between groups within civil wars with demography not central but related. Brunborg et al 2006 considers demography as both cause and consequence of conflict with case studies and measurements of causalities, and the outcome of conflict, highlighted. Weiner and Russell 2001 also consider the consequences but also the population capacity of states to engage in conflict, possible causes, and the resulting migrations or refugee movements after. Yoshihara and Sylva 2012 consider great power politics from a changing standpoint on security evaluating aging populations, labor force, and the practical needed for people to implement power see also Sciubba 2011 for additional policy recommendations. Cincotta et al 2003 attempts to access the locations of future conflict using environmental stress and demographical pressure as causes of concern.

Brunborg, Helge, Ewa Tabeau, and Henrik Urdal, eds. The Demography of Armed Conflict. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer, 2006.

A comprehensive edited volume, it first evaluates the demographical causes of conflict but is primarily concerned with the aftereffects. Measurements of causalities, also genocide, forced migrations, and the rebuilding process are also heavily and empirically investigated (see more in the section on recovery after war).

Cincotta, Richard P, Robert Engelman, and Daniele Anastasion. The Security Demographic: Population and Civil Conflict After the Cold War. Washington, DC: Population Action International, 2003.

Using demography as its basis and designed for policy makers, this work attempts to estimate the likelihood of where future conflict will originate geographically. Complex and well-constructed maps help illustrate the potential (available online free).

Cederman, Lars-Erik, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, and Halvard Buhaug. Inequality, Grievances, and Civil War. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2013.

An empirical study on civil war, it examines the complexity of ethnic divisions, duration of war, measurements of inequality, but most importantly grievances are heavily evaluated from a quantitative standpoint evaluating importance and weight of the influences.

Organski, A.F. Kenneth, and Jacek Kugler. The War Ledger. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 1980.

Empirical testing of the ability to recover after war, difficulties in nuclear deterrence, and most influential the likelihood of conflict between a challenger nation who increasingly nears power parity with a dominant or defending nation. In effect, it uses a combination of economic, political, and demographical change to increase power (or development) in relation to competition and the resulting possibility of conflict.

Sciubba, Jennifer Dabbs. The Future Faces of War: Population and National Security. Santa Barbara, CA: Praeger Security International/ABC – CLIO, 2011.

Designed for defense professionals, the volume considers the security effects of age, urbanization, and the importance of change within demography on long-term considerations.

Weiner, Myron, and Sharon Stanton Russell, eds. Demographical and National Security. Oxford, UK: Berghahn Books, 2001.

Dealing with global influences of change are evaluated via both cross-national and case study, this edited volume deals with policy’s influence on or importance in issues of conflict and migrations. It also examines the interconnections between choice, power, and national security. Particular attention is paid to Stalinist policy, forced movements within China, and the complex case of Southeastern Asia.

Yoshihara, Susan, and Douglas A Sylva, eds. Population Decline and the Remaking of Great Power Politics. Washington, D.C.: Potomac Books, 2012.

Written for a policy and security audience, the volume offers an overview and guide to the possibility of how aging populations will effect both global politics but the individual nations that make up the bulk of ‘great powers.’ Specific concern on the ability to mobilize military force and the more practical aspects of implementation are key topics of consideration.

H i s t o r i c a l P o l i t i c a l C h a n g e a n d E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t

Development (political and economic) has been a key research agenda within the field and one that necessitates longitudinal historical work. Demography is dynamic but the results are generational and hence historical work is required to assess issues such as changing attitudes towards marriage, industrialization with its resulting demands on urban labor, interactions between births with human capital acumination, and how these phenomena are both created by political and influence in turn are exciting questions of current and historical era works. Examples topics seen in Goldstone 2008 or Wrigley 1989, 2004 are evaluations of the existence and rise of the industrial revolution within England as a move from an organic industry (with limitations due to biology) to an urban heavy industry. The vast increase in population starting in the long 18th century connects economic growth with rapid declines in infant morality rates, which in turn create the necessary population by the late 19th century to be an expanded political and economic power, as well as creating the necessary density for modern urban capitalism (also seen in Tilly’s 1978 edited volume). Kertzer and Laslett 1995 focus on aging with Porter 1995 evaluating the limitations of the medical industry and policy with Graunt 1665 the first example of data to public policy implementation. See Lee 2003 for a more empirical discussion of the complex development relationship with demography.

Goldstone, Jack A. Why Europe? The Rise of the West in World History 1500-1850. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill, 2008.

An introduction undergraduate textbook designed to bring a clear overview of economic development, political change and demographical influences to the greater question of why the rise of Europe happened (and in some areas of this topic, if it happened at all or is simply temporary), and its resulting influences on global political structures.

Graunt, John. Natural and Political Observations Mentioned in a Following Index, and Made Upon the Bills of Mortality . . . The Fourth Impression. Oxford, UK: Printed by William Hall for John Martyn and James Allestry, printers to the Royal Society, 1665.

On originating longitudinal demographic data primarily a compilation of mortality data. This allows for differences in humanity to be scaled and more importantly tracked. Graunt made the claim that these measurements helped trade expand, government operate, could create the means to eliminating losses by disease. Originally published in 1665, digitized editions are available online through the subscription-database Early English Books Online and the open-access archive European Cultural Heritage Online (ECHO).

Kertzer, David I, and Peter Laslett, eds. Aging in the Past: Demography, Society, and Old Age. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1995.

The first two regions to have high percentages of elderly population are in Europe and in North America. The living arraignments (with children’s household, independent, or state supported), political policies of support (such as support for widows), influences on marriage, and geographic

isolation are exanimated with the supported claim that age as a historical phenomena is understudied and should be expanded upon (the section on aging also expands upon this topic).

Lee, Ronald. “The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 17.4 (2003): 167–190.

Clear empirically based overview of the components, structure, and outcomes of the demographic transition (see following section). This paper uses a combination of cases and cross-national longitudinal (1750-2150) forecasts as investigative technique.

Porter, Roy. Disease, medicine, and society in England, 1550-1860. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1993.

Organization of medicine, creation of early hospitals, disorganization, and the rise of professionalism are evaluated. Focus on the limited ability to link technological advances to specific causation in mortality decline. The profession itself was not of great social standing and had limited ability to deal with the diseases at the time. Causation likely due to civil planning and increased nutrition not from medical services. First edition published in 1987.

Tilly, Charles, ed. Historical Studies of Changing Fertility. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1978.

Extensive collection of essays that create an attempt to evaluate a deterministic relationship between changing labor finances. Simply that in periods of limited resources society has high birth rates and mortality creating low population growth, with economic development morality rates plummet growth can in turn be high, yet as income increases so to does investments in education (and increasing property) that in turn cause birth rates to be checked.

Wrigley Edward A, and Roger S Schofield. The Population History of England 1541-1871: A Reconstruction. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1989.

A detailed guide to the influences of demography on economic growth in England originally published in 1981. The book uses registration data originally tabulated by local parish churches (mortality, marriages, births) and complex back computation from existing vital statistics to recreate past events and help illustrate their importance. One example is the dynamic nature of the family system (when to marry or if) when interacted with changing fortunes and employment within newly urbanized and industrial England.

Wrigley Edward A. Poverty, Progress, and Population. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2004.

Fifteen interlocked essays on a wide range of interconnected topics such as the industrial revolution, types of agricultural employment, important of labor sectors, marriage changes, infant mortality, urban growth, and the complexity of migration.

P o p u l a t i o n , D e v e l o p m e n t , a n d t h e D e m o g r a p h i c T r a n s i t i o n

The causal relationships between demographical structures and economic growth are complex. The intricacies of why couples choose to have children, resulting effects on total labor market, the interactions

between children with education, and the possibility that all of these effects can be manipulated by policy are prime avenues for research. First evaluated by Carr-Saunders 1936 (see *General Overview* section), a consistent finding is that as economic growth increases mortality rates fall precipitously followed by a lagged decline in birth rates. This results in an unexpected ‘budge’ in youthful population that due to the latter generations being proportionally smaller causes the overall societies average age to increase. This phenomenon became called the ‘Demographic Transition’ or simply the movement from a principally young growing population to old declining (the theoretic framework from Kirk 1996). Within the transition is the possibility of rapid economic growth due to a disproportionately high labor force and this attracts policy makers interested in creating a subsequently smaller dependency ratio via policies of birth control and limitation (discussed in the demographical dividends section with connections to both the greater *Eugenics* movement and *Neo-Malthus*). This connection between declines in birth rates and what becomes called ‘modernity’ has been a great influence on resulting policy choices and will be evaluated at length throughout the following works. See Teitlelbaum 1975 for evaluations of the limitations of demographic transition as a theory and the suggestion that its use as a basis of policy was problematic. See Becker 1992 for economic incentives within the family with Easterlin and Crimmins 1985. See Demeny and McNicoll 2006 for cross national comparisons and Gould 2009 for a concise introduction volume as a textbook and Dyson 2010 for an introduction reading. See Bhrolcháin and Dyson 2006 for foundational framework for future casual empirical studies and Feng et al 2000 for an empirical modeling linking measurements of political capacity to fertility changes and economic development.

Becker, Gary S. “Fertility and the Economy.” Journal of Population Economics 5.3 (1992): 185-201.

The paper links fertility decisions with both adult and child mortality rates helping to evaluate the risk assessment, and uncertainty, within the choice to have children. Special attention is given to how societies move from an early development of high births/deaths to a modern economic system of low fertility, high rates of human capital, and increasingly high rates of women’s participation in the work place. This paper was the basis his Nobel Jubilee Symposium.

Bhrolcháin, Máire Ní, and Tim Dyson. “On Causation in Demography: Issues and Illustrations.” Population and Development Review 33.1 (2007): 1-36.

An important foundational paper creating the framework for causal inference in demographical work helping to link data with theory. The theoretical framework on how to create a research agenda to establish causation is particularly helpful.

Dyson, Tim. Population and Development: The Demographic Transition. New York, NY: Zed Books, 2010.

This volume is designed to give an introduction to the complexities and outcomes of the demographical transition. The support is primarily case studies and descriptive data and is useful for a popular audience or undergraduate class.

Easterlin, Richard A, and Eileen M. Crimmins. The Fertility Revolution: A Supply-Demand Analysis. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 1985.

Empirical evaluation of the direct methods families use to reduce fertility. The complex interaction between interests in procreation, costs of contraception, and the production of children are evaluated.

Feng, Yi, Jacek Kugler, and Paul Zak. 2000. “The Politics of Fertility and Economic Development.” International Studies Quarterly 42(2): 667–694.

A cross-national study the article uses measurements of political capacity (RPC), to fertility change (working from previous research that suggested that fertility policy is more influential then simply economic development) with classic economic growth theory to attempt unified model and forecast (demography, economics, and politics).

Gould, William T.S. Population and Development. New York, NY: Routledge, 2009.

A textbook designed for an advanced undergraduate class it comprehensively links development issues, international actors (such as the UN and World Bank), to outcomes on population structures, and their Interactions with development. Special attention is given to the larger cases such as China’s transition, AIDS, migrations, and attempts to decrease population via policy.

Kirk, Dudley. “Demographic Transition Theory.” Population Studies 50.3 (1996): 361-387

An extensive comprehensive guide to nearly a century of transdisciplinary research attempting to link causality, policy, with the demographic transition. Special attention is given to individual countries attempts to reduce birth rates by policy, the role of development, and the difficulties of a creating theory with a limited understanding of the causal determinants.

Teitlelbaum, Michael S. “Relevance of Demographic Transition Theory for Developing Countries.” Science 188.4187 (May 1975): 420-425.

Discussion of the limited causal empirics (at the time) of the theory connected with the increased political pressure, via international organizations, to export it, as policy, to the developing world while ignoring the actual differences between the two. The interconnections between science and policy are an interesting consideration.

E u g e n i c s

Eugenics was created from the conception that the ‘fitness’ of humanity can be expanded upon by selective breeding or more specifically breeding restrictions. Built both from agricultural practices but also from the theory of evolution, this policy became popular but its use was highly controversial. The implications became increasingly morally problematic as aggressive attempts to modify human population became linked to societal preferences, prejudices, and racial classification. These arguments turned to propaganda then policies of state sponsored sterilization, ethnic cleansing, and later were used as arguments for the holocaust. This created the ‘shadow of eugenics’ (seen in the next section) for most of the second half of the 20th century. See Bashford and Levine 2010 for a comprehensive collection of essays on the history of eugenics with Barrett and Kurzman 2004 evaluating the methods by which the policy become popular also seen in Glenna et al 2007 linking the policy to land grant institutions within the U.S. Please see Field 1911 for a period specific evaluation and Galton 1883 for an early origin and proponent. Also see Huxely, Haddon, and Morris Carr-Saunders 1935 for a counter argument to its validity.

Bashford, Alison, and Philippa Levine, eds. The Oxford Handbook of the History of Eugenics. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2010.

An expansive collection of essays this edited volume is particularly interesting in the historical creation, use, and decline in global eugenics.

Barrett, Deborah, and Charles Kurzman. “Globalizing social movement theory: The case of eugenics.” Theory and Society 33 (2004): 487–527

A guide to the evangelization of the eugenics movement in the interwar years principally through the then-new international non-government organizations and charities. The global popularity is highlighted, as is the consistent adoption of a series of select policies (including highly problematic ones, such as forced sterilization).

Field, James A. “The Progress of Eugenics.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 26.1 (1911): 1-67.

Written just as eugenics gained the popular consensus. This massive comprehensive overview of the last (at that time in 1911) fifty years of research on the topic of biological differences within humanity was created as a means to popularize this research in the academic and later political world.

Galton, Francis. Inquiries into the Human Faculty. London, UK: Macmillan, 1883.

Considered to be the creator of the eugenics (and coiner of the term) movement Francis Galton (also cousin to Charles Darwin) popularized the concept with this book his principle means to market the policy (available online with the 2nd edition from 1911).

Glenna, Leland L, Margaret A. Gollnick, and Stephen S. Jones. “Eugenic Opportunity Structures: Teaching Genetic Engineering at US Land-Grant Universities since 1911.” Social Studies of Science 37.2 (2007): 281-296.

Connecting eugenics to social movements this paper shows the popularity of the field in major US land grand institutions as a means to evaluate the spread of this philosophy via principally biological and agricultural departments. Additionally, interesting is the popularity of specifically eugenics classes almost twenty-five years after WWII into the early 1970’s.

Huxely, Julian, Alfred Cort Haddon, Alexander Morris Carr-Saunders. We Europeans: A Survey of 'Racial' Problems. London, UK: J. Cape, 1935.

Written as an argument against increasingly aggressive racially motivated policies within Europe, at the time, the principle argument is that the very concept of race is flawed. That humanity is simply to mobile, to interactive, and to inter-mingled for such deterministic arguments based upon racial isolation to be viable (available online, revised in 1937, and with a popular edition from Penguin in 1939).

Kevles, Daniel J. In the Name of Eugenics: Genetics and the Uses of Human Heredity. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1995.

A historiography analyzing the people and structures behind the eugenics movement, but also evaluating its future potentials and pitfalls.

Rosen, Christine. Preaching Eugenics: Religious Leaders and the American Eugenics Movement Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2004.

An interesting look at the role various religious organizations had with and against the eugenics movement and how those rolls changed over time (also available online via Oxford Scholarship Online 2005).

S h a d o w o f E u g e n i c s

The trauma in the post-WWII era caused even the phrase ‘political demography’ to be linked to policies of racial classification but this trauma is shared with eugenics being a popular policy with public health fields, early organizations lobbying for birth control, development, and similar, if hidden, arguments remain popular in the anti-immigration movement and development literature. Although no clear biological difference (let along advantage) is found between populations of humanity the belief in superiority is popular as is the belief that success (political or economic) is created via worth and that is the result of biology. Eugenics as a word is no longer acceptable but its arguments remain. See Broberg and Roll- Hansen 2005 as investigation to policy implementation (including forced sterilization) within Scandinavia with Hansen and King 2013 for an insightful evaluation of forced sterilization policies within North America supported by both Eugenics and Neo-Malthusian movements, McLaren 1990 for policy implementation within Canada, and Adams 1990 on cross national comparisons. See Ramsden 2009 for further implications with the word eugenics as a social stigma. Also see Caplan et al 1999 as a pro genetic modification argument compared with Duster 1990 who evaluates the future ethical issues associated with modifications to human biology. Lombardo 2008 looks at one major US Supreme Court case in the greater context of the eugenics movement.

Adams, Mark B. ed. The Well-Born Science: Eugenics in Germany, France, Brazil, and Russia New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 1990.

A comparative historical edited volume it allows for greater detail on the nuances of a series of country specific eugenics policies and their popularity.

Broberg, Gunnar, and Nils Roll-Hansen, eds. Eugenics and the Welfare State: Norway, Sweden, Denmark, and Finland. East Lansing, MI: Michigan State University Press, 2005.

A collection of essays primarily created from primary archival research evaluating the scope, scale, and influence of the eugenics movements within Scandinavian states. This is the 2nd edition with the original from 1996.

Caplan Arthur L, McGee Glenn, and Magnus David. “What is Immoral About Eugenics?” British Medical Journal 319 (1999): 1284.

The authors make the claim that so far as individual choice is protected and access to technology not restricted then the new field of genetics should achieve the original goals of the eugenics movement, which is to select human attributes. Even ones not directly connected to medical

conditions but those that are subjective such as appearance. In effect a pro eugenics (genetics) argument.

Duster, Troy. Backdoor to Eugenics. New York, NY: Routledge, 1990.

Written for a popular and practitioner audience. The book advocates aggressively for excessive caution in the new field of genetics and its use. With new measurements of biological difference the step to selection is simple but that step is towards the concept and then practice of eugenics.

Hansen, Randall, and Desmond King. Sterilized by the State: Eugenics, Race, and the Population Scare in the Twentieth-Century North America. Cambridge UK, Cambridge University Press, 2013.

Focusing principally on US state policies influence by the eugenics and neo-Malthusian movement. This is an in-depth guide with a series of individual interviews, case studies, and qualitative support to its historical overview.

Lombardo, Paul. Three Generations, No Imbeciles: Eugenics, the Supreme Court, and Buck v. Bell. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2008.

The book consists of a well-written detailed narrative on the story of the Buck v. Bell court case that had the U.S. Supreme Court upheld the legality that the state of Virginia may forcibly sterilize Carrie Buck and included in the course ruling was the famous (highly-charged) line “three generations of imbeciles are enough.”

McLaren, Angus. Our Own Master Race: Eugenics in Canada, 1885-1945. Toronto, Canada: McClelland & Stewart, 1990.

The selling of eugenics as a social good policy within Canada is extensively evaluated with additional specificity on provincial differences and details.

Ramsden, Edmund. “Confronting the Stigma of Eugenics: Genetics, Demography and the Problems of Population.” Social Studies of Science 39.6 (2009): 853-884.

The stigma of the word ‘eugenics’ and the phrases associated with it hides implications of its policies and undermines future evaluation. The article focuses on methods to move around or beyond these problems of language.

N e o - M a l t h u s a n d t h e P o p u l a t i o n B o m b

Within the early stages of the demographical transition is the possibility in the early stages of rapid population growth. Caused by a combination of economic development, public health expenditure, or stable governments (see *Demographical Transition* section) this period of growth is created not simply by increasing birth rates but rapid declines in morality. The resulting population growth can be extreme. In the late 50’s early 60’s this was a common cross-national characteristics and led to a rise in neo Malthusian thought. Building from the 18th-century thinker, simply, that population growth will outpace economic growth, technological growth, and will lead unavoidably to societal collapse as we simply run out of the necessary resources to sustain population. Following the Second World War, this forecast

gained popularity, becoming a rallying cry for domestic and international polices to reduce population, especially in less economically prosperous countries outside of Europe and North America. This was a fundamental policy that as for the next fifty years linked international aid to reducing of births as necessity for economic growth. See in the highly influence work of Ehrlich 1968, Hardin 1968, and Meadows et al 1972. This Population Bomb, as Ehrlich coined the term, never commenced, with the transition from high births/high growth, to low and aging the outcome of demographical change (well evaluated in Lam 2011). This represents a surviving tie to earlier work that openly aligned itself with eugenics policies. The importance of Ehrlich and this school of thought cannot be understated: the basic premise that population is itself as a problem remains a key factor in the distribution modern international aid while remaining high influential and remarkably controversial (see Bashford 2014 for a historical look). See Connelly 2008 for a guide to international organizations and policy implementation. Lam 2011 is of key importance with its investigation of why the bomb never came to be, see Boserup 1965 a primary voice evaluated the ability of agriculture under differing forms of sophistication to provide for population, and Peterson 1979 for a biography of Malthus the person.

Bashford, Alison. Global Population: History, Geopolitics, and Life on Earth. New York, NY: Columbia University Press, 2014.

An impressive and illustrative historical volume on the changing marketing and lobbying of population related policies (within nations and international). The move from eugenics, to neo- Malthusian, from forced sterilization to the rise of women’s rights, the story is profoundly interesting and the connections between people and organizations are a particularly important aspect of the book.

Boserup, Ester. The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change under Population Pressure. Chicago, IL: Aldine Publishing Company, 1965.

Considering the incentives of societies to innovate agricultural methods. This economic history expands upon the process by which civilizations create the frameworks to feed expanding populations. Expanding upon the concept that demand creates innovation this volume explains the sustained ability via development of food cultivation.

Connelly, Matthew. Fatal Misconception: The Struggle to Control World Population. Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 2008.

Created as a call to action (and specific policy point) against population control the volume connects history with international organizations investigating implementation of policy within development (and developed) nations.

Ehrlich, Paul R.. The Population Bomb. New York, NY: Ballantine Books, 1968.

The origin of neo-Malthusian thought. Simply, that the limited environmental resources of the planet will not be able to sustain extensive population growths seen in the early 60s. Written as a highly alarmist, almost apocalyptic, call to action.

Lam, David. "How the World Survived the Population Bomb: Lessons From 50 Years of Extraordinary Demographic History." Demography 48.4 (2011): 1231-1262.

An empirical guide to family planning, resource cost reductions, environmental impacts, technological innovations, and economic development characteristics connected with rapidly declining population growth that undermined the empirical support of neo-Malthusians. The paper investigates why the bomb did not ‘explode.’

Hardin, Garrett. “The Tragedy of the Commons.“ Science 162. 38591968 (1968): 1243-1248. DOI: 10.1126/science.162.3859.1243

Highly influential in academic and governmental circles at the time, this policy recommendation that the ‘freedom to breed’ should be restricted as it would inevitably, due to overpopulation, succumb other more ‘more precious freedoms.’

Meadows, Donella H, Dennis L. Meadows, Jørgen Randers, and William W. Behrens. The Limits to Growth: A report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind. New York, NY: Universe Books, 1972.

A highly influential book attempted to uses forecasting techniques to assess the potentially devastating consequences of rapid population growth and economic development. It calls for a global consensus on the creation of a stable state via international policy. As with Ehrlich 1968 the unexpected (and vast) technological advances with rapid population growth decline have undermined much of its veracity (see Lam 2011).

Petersen, William. Malthus. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1979.

A pro-Malthus biography, the volume helps illuminate the man, his theories, life, intellectual world, connections to early economics, morality, and the rewriting or reworking, of who and what he thought into what becomes first the eugenics (or Social Darwinian movement) then later the neo- Malthus movements.

Pritchett Lant H. “Desired Fertility and the Impact of Population Policies.” Population and Development Review 20.1 (1994): 1–55.

Empirical evaluation of fertility choices with policy recommendations to increase women’s rights, role in society, education, and economic opportunities, as these are influential characteristics to fertility choices. See the following section on Women’s Rights for extensions.

C h i n e s e D e m o g r a p h i c S t r u c t u r e s

No country institutionalized the ideas of the neo-Malthusians more then China. Starting in 1979 and in effect currently the implications and implementation of the ‘one child policy (called jihua shengyu in China which translates as government family planning),’ role of international institutions such as the United Nations Population Fund are investigated by Greenhalgh 2008 and during the process of creation by Banister 1987. See White 2006 and Wang 1999 for additional overview and investigation of the forced sterilization campaigns in the 80’s and both for the numerous complicated changes in the policy over time (such as two child per family or more depending on location, ethnicity, and other complex factors). See Zhu et al 2009 who discuss the resulting sex selective abortion and gender imbalances and Xiaorong

1996 for discussion of the legality (or lack) of coercion. See Hudson and den Boer 2005 for further investigations of the consequences of gender imbalance on conflict and democratization.

Banister, Judith. China's Changing Population. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1987.

Written as the family planning policy had entered it’s more aggressive phase this volume uses up to the date (1987) historical and modern Chinese data evaluating the effects of the policy and future implications. A useful snapshot of the era.

Ding QJ, and T Hesketh. “Family size, fertility preferences, and sex ratio in China in the era of the one child family policy: results from national family planning and reproductive health survey.” British Medical Journal 333.7564 (2006): 371-3.

Using a large survey of women as a supplement to census data it evaluates family choice at the individual level illustrating the dual effects of the planning policy but also economic development on reductions in fertility.

Greenhalgh, Susan Just One Child: Science and Policy in Deng’s China. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 2008.

A deep analysis of the decision to create the one child per family policy changes to the policy, and the role of international influence. The importance of the international system but also the domestic buy-in is particularly interesting.

Hudson, Valerie M, Andrea M. den Boer. Bare Branches: The Security Implications of Asia's Surplus Male Population. Boston, MA: The MIT Press, 2005.

Considering the outcomes of gender imbalance throughout much of Asia the book investigates this as a multi-generational security issue. The reasons, status of women, and influences on future conflict and democratization are also evaluated.

Wang, Gabe T. China's Population: Problems, Thoughts and Policies. Aldershot, UK: Ashgate Publishing Limited, 1999.

Giving an overview of the policy’s origins, the volume also considers the structural and societal reasons for its original acceptance and continuation (almost uniquely), by the population, while evaluating its lasting outcomes.

White, Tyrene. China’s Longest Campaign: Birth Planning in the People’s Republic, 1949-2005, Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2006.

Discussion and investigation, via interviews and quantitative analysis, of how, and why, the communist party during its period of economic liberalization created the family planning policy as a means to further economic development. Links the policy to a campaign like atmosphere of implementation.

Zhu, Wei Xing, Li Lu, and Therese Hesketh. “China’s Excess Males, Sex Selective Abortion and One Child Policy: Analysis of Data from 2005 National Inter-census Survey.” British Medical Journal 338 (2009): 1136-1141.

A geographic centered analysis of the influence of the policy and its provincial variance. The urban (one child only) to rural (two if the first is a female but providence dependent) are additionally evaluated with connections to the future gender balance regional issues (available online).

Xiaorong Li. “License To Coerce: Violence against Women, State Responsibility, And Legal Failures In China’s Family Planning Program.” Yale Journal of Law and Feminism 8.1 (1996): 145-191.

Considerations to the top-down process of implementation of the policy. The paper evaluates the authoritarian undermining of women’s rights at the local level as local bureaucrats attempt to aggressively achieve quotas assigned by the central government.

W o m e n ’ s R i g h t s

No individual event has a greater degree of influence on reduction of fertility rates then the rise of women’s rights. The ability to be educated, divorced, own property, and move into the labor markets all create a series of incentives to either delay birth or rapidly reduce expected amounts of children. This subject has been touched upon in the Development and Chinese demography sections but should be expanded upon here connected to economic and political development. Jejeebhoy 1995 is a comprehensive empirical evaluation of the reasons for a policy of declines connected to women’s rights. See Bloom et al 2009 for evaluation of declines in fertility, women’s labor participation, and economic growth along with Mammen and Paxson 2000. See Bailey 2006 considering the practicality of innovation in birth control to the labor market. Also Goldin 1995 and 2006 for a complex look at the US labor market, changing rights, with changing expectations. Halfon 2007 is a useful guide to changing concerns connected to a reconsideration of human rights in the international community, as the policy of forced family planning shifts to one designed to enhance women’s lives as new more effective method. Sen 2003 evaluates the new estimations of gender imbalance internationally from a human rights perspective.

Jejeebhoy, Shireen J. Women’s Education, Autonomy, and Reproductive Behaviour: Experience from Developing Countries. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press (Clarendown Press), 1995.

A wide empirical investigation of the amounts of education needed to see fertility changes, connections with infant morality rates, structures of family, rights in general, and importance of policy. Designed to give specific numerical evaluation to policy recommendations.

Bailey, Martha J. “More Power to the Pill: The Impact of Contraceptive Freedom on Women’s Lifecycle Labor Supply.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 121.1 (2006): 289–320.

Evaluation of the causal relationship between the legalization of birth control pill and additional labor force participation of women.

Bloom, David, David Canning, Günther Fink, and Jocelyn Finlay. "Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend." Journal of Economic Growth 14.2 (June 2009): 79-101.

Using a cross-national structure the paper empirically discusses the correlations and causal relationship between declines in fertility, increasing women’s employment, and positive economic gains. Additional evaluation of urbanization, education, and access to abortion is also evaluated.

Halfon, Saul E. The Cairo Consensus: Demographic Surveys, Women’s Empowerment, and Regime Change in Population Policy. New York, NY: Lexington Books, 2007.

Discussion of the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development held in Cairo the book examines the proposal at the conference for a doctoral change from ‘population control’ to ‘women’s empowerment’ as a human rights concept and policy change.

Goldin, Claudia. “The U-shaped female labor force function in economic development and economic history.” In Investment in women’s human capital and economic development. Edited by T. P. Schultz. 61–90. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 1995.

The U-shape is the movement from higher levels of women’s participation to lower, with development, to then higher again with further economic development. A complex story of social choice and its intersections with women’s rights.

Goldin, Claudia. “The Quiet Revolution That Transformed Women's Employment, Education, and Family.” The American Economic Review 96.2 (May 2006): 1-21.

A historiography of the dynamics of change within the US labor market. Consideration is given to phases of change and future potential.

Mammen, Kristin and Christina Paxson. “Women's Work and Economic Development.” The Journal of Economic Perspectives 14.4 (Autumn 2000): 141-164.

Empirical cross-national study on social prestige using a variety of measurements connected to labor participation and the interconnections with economic development.

Sen, Amartya. “Missing women—revisited.” British Medical Journal. 327.7427 (2003): 1297-1298.

Expansion of his original article in 1992. Increased morality rates in women linked to women’s rights (or the lack with early estimates of over 100 million missing women). This policy action paper looks at India’s (with some comparison to China) gender imbalances with a call for further research on the cultural and political choices that underlie sex selection (with overview of new estimations of losses).

A g i n g P o p u l a t i o n s

The world is aging. The complex economic consequences on the overall financial system, labor force, economic growth, and expectations of family are investigated in a special issue of Oxford Review of Economic Policy 2010 within a U.S. government funded Committee on the Long-Run Macroeconomic Effects of the Aging U.S. Population 2012 and Preston 1984 for a earlier version. See Bloom and Channing 2004 for empirics of economic growth to demographical change. See Balter 2006 for overviews of the cross-national characteristics of fertility decline. Hedge and Borman 2012 are a compressive

overview principally from the psychological standpoint and have little overlap of authors with the other compotation or committee volumes. See Teitelbaum and Winter 2013 for an evenhanded evaluation of fertility decline for a popular audience and Last 2013 for a more dramatic apocalyptic version. See Hedge and Borman 2012 for considerations from a labor market, public health, and policy standpoint. Also see Jackson and Howe 2008 for evaluations of international power under demographic change with Vanhuysse and Goerres 2012 concerned primarily on the domestic electoral changes.

Balter, Michael. “The Baby Deficit.” Science 312 (2006): 1894-1897. DOI: 10.1126/science.312.5782.1894

Discussion of the ’low fertility spiral’ and the possibility of government policies to increase birth rates. Written as an informational news overview.

Committee on the Long-Run Macroeconomic Effects of the Aging U.S. Population. Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population. Washington DC: National Academies Press, 2012.

United States focused and charged by the US Congress to evaluate but more importantly suggest future research goals and policy recommendations. These are expanded data, attempts to increase the age of retirement, create policies for successful aged employment, assess new technologies to allow disabled population into the labor force, expand upon considerations of savings (government and individual), and investigate future modeling potential as a means to increase quality.

Hedge Jerry W, and Walter C. Borman, eds. The Oxford Handbook of Work and Aging. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2012.

Although a compilation volume with a wide degree of interest the highlights are the evaluations of the structures of the labor market in relation to an aging workplace. Discusses the influences of restriction as well as the necessity of legal and societal change.

Jackson, Richard, and Neil Howe. The Graying of the Great Powers: Demography and Geopolitics in the 21st Century. Washington, DC: Center for Strategic & International Studies, 2008.

Written as a guide to public policy the volume evaluates the military and political consequences for first the developed world (the great powers) and developing considering current demographical trends towards age and youth bulges. Considerations such as to the risk propensity of nations with limited youth towards conflict, decreasing labor forces, and the possibility of increased civil conflict are of particular interest.

Last, Johnathan V. What to Expect When No One’s Expecting: America’s Coming Demographic Disaster. New York, NY: Encounter Books, 2013.

Written for a popular audience it’s a sometimes overly dramatic, occasionally apocalyptic, view of the future caused by fertility changes. It includes, sometimes problematic, views on the declines in religiosity as cause and also increasing women’s’ rights as a problem.

Myrskylä, Mikko, Hans-Peter Kohler, and Francesco C. Billari. “Advances in Development Reverse Fertility Declines.” Nature 460 (August 2009): 741-743 doi:10.1038/nature08230

Concise, intriguing empirical evaluation that at extreme levels of human development (using measurements of the Human Development Index) birth rates may start to increase. They argue these changes are seen only in highly developed countries.

Preston, Samuel H. “Children and the Elderly: Divergent Paths for America's Dependents.” Demography 21.4 (1984): 435-457.

Discussion of the societal factors (such as public education) that reduce birth rates and evaluates the scale of new transfers to increased elderly as a movement of funds from youth to elderly.

Teitelbaum, Michael S, and Jay Winter. The Global Spread of Fertility Decline: Population, Fear, and Uncertainty. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2013.

Written for a popular audience, this discussion attempts to create a counter argument to the more apocalyptic style of popular writing on fertility decline. It focuses on the scale of the change but also the time needed with interesting evaluations of future potential.

The Authors. “The Economics of Ageing.” Oxford Review of Economic Policy 26.4 (2010).

A special edition, this specific issue of the journal contains a series of papers from field experts dealing with aging on labor markets, economic growth potential, inequality across generations, health care, insurance, and interactions between each. Very useful as a whole for a broad overview of the issue from an economics perspective, while also offering detailed examples within individual articles.

Vanhuysse, Pieter, and Achim Goerres. Aging Populations in Post-Industrial Democracies. Abingdon, UK: Routledge/ECPR European Political Science Series, 2012.

Primarily interested in the costs and electoral effects of aging population. The work focuses on the voting possibilities, welfare, and the evaluation of medical costs in democratic developed nations under going the later states of the demographic transition.

D e m o g r a p h i c D i v i d e n d s

The term ‘demographic dividends’ was coined by Bloom et al 2003. It refers to the potential of a growing or youthful population on economic growth. Simply in traditional societies the youngest are also the largest proportion of the nation. Meaning that with increased education (human capital) and development that proportionally large labor force sees the potential for rapid economic growth. Growth that should, in turn, decreases with aging and the resulting higher dependency ratios (ratio in effect between labor force and dependents such as youths and retired elderly). This process is intriguingly linked to the demographic transition (Lee and Mason 2006). Of particular concern is the developing world, with Mason et al 2010 and Mason 2001 investigating the dividend in the Pacific Rim, which by Golley and Tyers 2012 also analyze. Africa is the focus of Drummond et al 2014 with Brander and Dowrick 1994 using a cross-

national study. See Galor 2000 for a broader attempt to create unified growth theory of which the dividend is just a single component.

Bloom, David E, David Canning, and Jaypee Sevilla. The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change. Santa Monica, California: RAND, 2003.

A small booklet written as a call for, and empirical support, for the age structure of the population is connected to economic growth. Also that the age structure itself is more important then population growth as an issue and has more potential effects on nations as a whole primarily economic growth.

Brander, James A, and Steve Dowrick. “The Role of Fertility and Population in Economic Growth Empirical Results From Aggregate Cross-National Data.” Journal of Population Economics 7.1 (1994): 1– 25. doi:10.1007/BF00160435.

Empirical investigation of the changes in movements of capital to investment and the medium to long-range characteristics of economic growth due to fertility declines.

Drummond, Paulo, Vimal Thakoor, and Shu Yu. “Africa Rising: Harnessing the Demographic Dividend.” International Monetary Fund Working Paper No. 14/143, 2014.

Discussion of the economic potential, and estimations of its size, of Africa should its very young (and reasonably high birth rates) be channeled via the demographic dividend to economic growth.

Galor, Oded, and David N. Weil. “Population, Technology and Growth: From the Malthusian Regime to the Demographic Transition.” American Economic Review 90.4 (2000): 806-828.

Attempting to create a ‘unified growth mode’ that encompasses population changes, societal change, innovation, economic development potential, and the move through the levels of the demographic transition.

Golley, Jane, and Rod Tyers. "Demographic Dividends, Dependencies, and Economic Growth in China and India." Asian Economic Papers 11.3 (2012): 1-26.

Comparisons between the demographic structure of India and China with an emphasis on Chinese aging population to the economic potential of the great proportion of youthful population in India.

Lee, Ronald, and Andrew Mason. “What Is the Demographic Dividend?” Finance and Development (a quarterly journal of the IMF) 43.3 (September 2006).

Small informative article on the dividend and its connections to demographic transition theory with additional connections to a possible ‘second demographic dividend’. A limited amount of descriptive statistics are used as support. Designed as an introduction article.

Mason, Andrew, Ronald Lee, and Sang-Hyop Lee. “The Demographic Transition and Economic Growth in the Pacific Rim.” In NBER book The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia,

NBER-EASE Volume 19. Edited by Takatoshi Ito and Andrew Rose, 19-55, Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 2010.

Comprehensive empirical investigation of the economic dynamics of demographical change. Discussions on the changing expenditures (physical capital or education as examples) are put into context for changing dependency ratios and societal needs.

Mason, Andrew, ed. Population Change and Economic Development in East Asia: Challenges Met, Opportunities Seized. Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press, 2001.

A collection of essays on a set of six countries: Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand, and Indonesia. Provides highly specialized investigations on the second half of the twentieth century.

Y o u t h B u l g e

The term ‘youth bulge’ refers simply to the same disproportionately youthful (and often still growing population) as discussed in the demographical dividend section. More specifically it connected not to economic potential (but may in effect come from wasted potential) but to destabilization of political systems and increased likelihood for conflict. See Urdal 2006 for a clear cross national empirical evaluation (and support) with Winckler 2002 focused on the Middle East, Kahl 1998 discussing Kenya in context of elites uses environmental stress for political gains, with Urdal and Hoelscher 2009 creating a generalization of their first paper with a cross city analysis linking to urbanization and disaffected youth. Cincotta and Doces 2012 focuses not on the conflict itself but on the possibility of democratization from that strife, and Goldstone 2004 with a comprehensive look at the history of revolutions linked to the transition and youthful demographic characteristics.

Cincotta, R.P. and J. Doces. “The Age-Structural Maturity Thesis: The Impact of the Youth Bulge on Advent and Stability of Liberal Democracy.” In Political Demography: How Population Changes are Reshaping International Security and National Politics. Edited by Jack A Goldstone, Erick P Kaufmann, and Monica Duffy Toft, 98-116. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2012.

Using a model based upon the age structure of the nation this chapter attempts to assess the statistical likelihood of the acceptance of a liberal democratic regime. Written from with a more positive attitude towards change.

Goldstone, Jack A. Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1986. (2nd edition 1994, 3rd edition 2004)

A broad historical work linking demographical change (or the structure of population) in a multitude of regions (17th-19th century Europe, 19th Japan, China and the Ottoman Empires respectively) this book attempts to comprehensive discuss the matter of and reason behind the revolutions that have reshaped our world. The political choices, taxes, system of economics, and connections to trade are also evaluated from a demographical historical context.

Urdal, Hendrik. “A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence.” International Studies Quarterly 50.3 (2006): 607-629.

Showing strong empirical support, from a quantitative peace study standpoint and a broad cross national time series dataset, to the hypotheses of the youth bulge this paper is the genesis for much of the resulting research on this subject.

Urdal, Henrik and Kristian Hoelscher. Urban youth bulges and social disorder: An empirical study of Asian and sub-Saharan African cities. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5110. Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 2009.

A generalization of the Urdal 2006 paper this work uses a cross-city dataset as a means to increases the complexity and causal relationship between the youth bulge and conflict. It does not have the same degree of statistical support as the original paper but helps investigate the importance of and details in urbanization.

Kahl, Colin H. “Population growth, environmental degradation and state-sponsored violence: The case of Kenya, 1991–93.” International Security 23.2 (1998): 80–119.

Policy oriented this paper evaluates the choices of elites to stresses (environmental, resources, and demographical) to causes conflict (ethnic or otherwise) as means to continue in positions of power. The political choice to exploit stresses.

Winckler, Onn. “The demographic dilemma of the Arab World: The employment aspect.” Journal of Contemporary History 37.4 (2002): 617-636.

The article connects increasing population growth (and unemployment) in a region with high amounts of oil and the likelihood of resources. The policy decisions, oil crisis, and the interconnections between choice and development are discussed.

R e c o v e r y a f t e r W a r

The consequences of war are vast. Gender imbalances due to concentrated losses primary in males, forced migration (refugees), possibly increases in birth rates in the initial post war period, and the complexity of reconstruction are but a few of the topics connected to recovery. Both Urlanis 1971 and Frumkin 1951 consider the implications of WW2 on the demographical structures within Europe establishing the scale but also the lasting, sometimes unrecoverable, effects on the population. See Orkanski and Kugler 1977 for an empirical investigation of recovery after WW2 principally in the developed combatants. They show a ‘phoenix factor’ or a period of rapid growth (primarily birth but also economic) in the post war period. Similar results can be seen in Kugler et al 2013 using a larger cross national study and connecting to the capacity of governments to utilize their changed demographic foundations empirically investigating recovery (economic and demographical). A more concentrated study can be seen in Heuveline and Poch 2007 who show a similar phoenix recovery within Cambodia. See Hill 2004 for an overview of the current policy, recommendations, and estimations on war recovery and demographical consequences. See Seybolt et al 2013 for an empirical and methodological explanation of the estimations of casualties.

Urlanis, Boris. Wars and Population. Moscow: Progress Publishers, 1971.

Written as a reaction to the scale of the carnage in WW2 the book attempts to measure that scale, show the age distribution effects, and evaluate the lasting consequences. It calls for a future of peace (and is also a bit pro-soviet and suggests complete disarmament) but also investigates wars (imperial and world) prior for use as comparisons.

Hill, Kenneth. War, Humanitarian Crises, Population Displacement, and Fertility: A Review of the Evidence. Roundtable on the Demography of Forced Migration, Committee on Population, National Research Council and Program on Forced Migration and Health at the Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2004.

A small pamphlet this serves as a guide to the causal relationships between conflict (of all types) and changes in fertility. Attention is shown to the measurable evidence but also regional specific issues as well such as access to contraception in refugee camps or changes in infant mortality due to problematic environmental factors.

Organski, A. F. Kenneth, and Jacek Kugler. “The Costs of Major Wars: The Phoenix Factor.” American Political Science Review 71.4 (December 1977): 1347–1366.

Empirically discuss the rapid growth in countries in the post WW2, particularly, countries who had suffered high causalities rates and extensive amounts of material damage. Claim that stability and capacity of government allows for the ability to rebuild efficiently.

Kugler, Tadeusz, Kyungkook Kang, Jacek Kugler, Marina Arbetman, and John Thomas. “The Demographic & Economic Consequences of Conflict.” International Studies Quarterly 57.1 (2013): 1-12.

Investigating the most damaging wars in the 20th century, it illustrates the differing experiences of recovery by level of development. All countries demographically reach the level (with twenty years) that they would have been forecast to expect but that only the most developed utilize the temporary increased birth rates in the post war era to create a small demographic dividend that propels economic growth to a higher then expected level.

Heuveline, Patrick and Bunnak Poch. 2007. “The Phoenix Population: Demographic Crisis and Rebound in Cambodia.” Demography 44.2: 405-426.

A specialized case study on recovery this work finds demography can recover even after the most extreme events. Highly detailed and focused on the individual choices (such as increased marriage rates) and local resources.

Frumkin, Grzegorz. 1951. Population Changes in Europe since 1939. New York: Augustus M. Kelley.

An early work using estimated balance sheets of nations within Europe as a means to investigate the remarkable changes in population due both to causalities but also population transfers (forced and refugees).

Seybolt, Taylor B, Jay D Aronson, and Baruch Fischoff, eds.=. Counting Civilian Casualties: An Introduction to Recording and Estimating Non-Military deaths in Conflict. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2013.

An edited volume it deals in the details of estimation called for a more comprehensive and universal definition to help both measure and define the outcomes of conflict. The book has a series of chapters dealing with post conflict surveys, estimation methodologies, problems with government interference, and calls for an international community to gain agreement as law on the numbers within and around conflict.

M i g r a t i o n C o n s i d e r a t i o n s

Migration is the movement of population, be it within countries or between. This section will primarily focus on the modeling of that movement and its implications. The following on immigration will consider the issues of assimilation and restriction. Hatton and Williamson 1998 discussion the scale/scope and both reasons with outcomes of the levels of migration seen globally but primarily interested in the late 19th early 20th century flows (‘age of mass migration’). The modern implications are discussed in Massey and Taylor 2004 with Borjas and Crisp 2005 focusing on the implications of poverty and also the specifics of asylum. Brettell et al 2007 attempts to link the multitude of disciplines interested in this subject. See Mayda 2010 for an empirical investigation of global flows of population with Fan 2005 measuring the flows within China, and Abramitzky et al 2012 on the gains of migrants during the age of migration. See Borja 1989 for the basis of the economic theory or incentives tested in the previous three papers. Green 2010, uniquely, looks at the use of forced migration as a tactic to create pressure (and hence policy) within the international system.

Abramitzky, Ran, Leah Boustan and Katherine Eriksson. “Europe’s Tired, Poor, Huddled Masses: Self- Selection and Economic Outcomes in the Age of Mass Migration.” American Economic Review 102.5 (August 2012): 1832-1856.

Using a dataset of migration from Norway to the US the paper empirically evaluates the individual economic gains of the migrant during the heyday of the age of migration.

Greenhill, Kelly M. Weapons of Mass Migration. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University, 2010.

Evaluates, and measures, the use of forced emigration as a tactic to manipulate international policy. Although rare, its use is interesting and uniquely discussed in this book.

Borja, George J. “Economic Theory and International Migration.” International Migration Review 23.3 (1989): 457-85.

Evaluation of the economic incentives (increased income or opportunity) that are one foundation of the migrant’s decision on future location. This has become one of the fundamental ideas of modeling migrations.

Borjas, George J, and Jeff Crisp, eds. Poverty, International Migration and Asylum. Hampshire, UK: Palgrave Macmillan, 2005

An edited volume with a series of essays on the specifics of national asylum policies, empirical investigations of migrant’s choice, and the interconnections between policy, poverty, and migration.

Brettell Caroline B, and James F. Hollifield, eds. Migration Theory Talking across Disciplines, 3rd Edition. New York, NY: Routledge, 2015

Designed for an introduction to a cross discipline discussion of migration this text is also useful for an advanced undergraduate class. The physical copy is forthcoming 2015 the electronic version is currently available 2014 with the 2nd edition from 2007.

Hatton, Timothy J. and Jeffery G Williamson. The Age of Mass Migration: Causes and Economic Impact. New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 1998

A historical evaluation of the era of migration from Europe in the late 19th early 20th century. The changes in policy and economic impacts with scale are heavily and insightfully investigated.

Fan, Cindy C. “Modeling Interprovincial Migration in China, 1985-2000.” Eurasian Geography and Economics 46.3 (2005): 165-184.

Due to political restrictions on population movement within China much of the actual movement is hidden. The estimation of scale and the location of flows (primarily center to sea) are empirically discussed within this paper.

Massey, Douglas S, and J. Edward Taylor, eds. International Migration: Prospects and Policies in a Global Market. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2004.

A comprehensive edited volume with extensive evaluation of the policies of receiving nations, recruitment, return migration, controls, welfare, and societal acceptance. Consideration is both global but also with regional discussion and policy within individual nations.

Mayda, Anna Maria. International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows. Journal of Population Economics 23.4 (2010): 1249-1274.

Empirically investigating the flows to set of OECD countries the paper measures the scale of influences of such variables in economic potential, prior groups immigration, and shared historical or linguist heritage.

I m m i g r a t i o n t o E u r o p e a n d t h e U . S .

The ability to restrict population movement (migration) is an aspect of governmental power but also societal choice. The acceptance of foreign born, assimilation, and resulting effects on fertility rates, total population, and economic effectiveness are key topics of consideration. This section will primarily evaluate immigration to both the US and Europe as these two regions have been the primary venues of research if primarily due to quality of immigration data. See Borjas 1999 for the influences of immigration on the US economy with Koven and Götzke 2010 for a comprehensive overview of policy change, economic consequences of different immigrant populations, and assimilation within the US. See Abramitzky et al 2014 for an empirical testing of the U.S. age of migration and see Teitelbaum 2014 for call for greater access to international scientific talent. Dancygier 2010 evaluates increased conflict in Europe and connects it to rising anti-immigration movements with Kuhn and Ochsen 2009 including a

series of nation specific empirical evaluations of immigration and economics effects within European nations. See Lanzieri 2012 for a measurement of assimilation also within Europe.

Abramitzky, Ran, Leah Boustan, and Katherine Eriksson. “A Nation of Immigrants: Assimilation and Economic Outcomes in the Age of Mass Migration.” Journal of Political Economy 122.3 (June 2014): 467- 717.

Empirical test of the outcomes to the US of the brief ‘age of migration’ seen at the end of the 19th century and ending in the 1920s. Heavily evaluates the importance of assimilation on income but also the presence of societal bias on the initial and subsequent generations.

Borjas, George J., Heaven’s Door: Immigration Policy and the American Economy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1999.

Empirical evaluations the effects of increased immigration starting in the 1980s. He shows an overall gain to the US economy but increased competition based upon skillsets.

Dancygier, Rafaela M. Immigration and Conflict in Europe. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2010.

Considers both the move of population but also attempts to evaluate the rising right wing parties and their popularity. Although primarily cross European additional localized case studies (such as London) are included.

Koven, Steven G, and Frank Götzke. American Immigration Policy: Confronting the Nation’s Challenges. New York, NY: Springer, 2010.

Expansive and detailed guide to the changing US policies with empirical investigation of each major era and specific policy. Additional evaluations of immigrations influence on the nation as a whole are included.

Lanzieri, Giampaolo. “Merging Populations. A Look at Marriages with Foreign-Born Persons in European Countries.” Eurostat: Statistics in Focus 29 (2012): 1–4.

A small empirical note on measurements of out marring rates within European nations of foreign born population. An important measurement used as assimilation rates but not commonly collected cross-nationally.

Teitelbaum Michael S. Falling Behind? Boom, Bust, and the Global Race for Scientific Talent. Princeton University Press, 2014.

Written as a policy point the volume calls for increased ability of the highly skilled to have access to the US labor market. Evaluates the cause, consequences, of labor shortage in the scientific population.

R e l i g i o u s C h a n g e

Religious belief (or really societal pressure) remains one of the few influences on higher then norm fertility rates. This disparity between often the increasingly secular (hence lower fertility) and more religious (higher fertility) groups leads to considerations of the long-term political or economic influence. Much of this is considered through a cultural acceptance, assimilation, and reconsideration towards national identity and is an interesting extension of work on immigration. See Bramadat and Koening 2009 for a series of essays dealing with immigration via religious affiliation with Fos 2008, Grim and Finke 2006, and the Association of Religion Data Archives comprehensive datasets on religious demography and policies towards acceptance or government centralization. See both Kaufmann 2010 and Toft et al 2011 for two works focused on a popular and practitioner population on the domestic interconnections between the continued success of religious groups, growth, and the resulting influence on politics or society as a whole.

Bramadat, Paul, and Matthias Koening, eds. International Migration and the Governance of Religious Diversity. Montrael, Canada: McGill-Queen’s University Press, 2009.

The volume attempts to create a unified theoretical then structural analysis of the change in immigration policy, or acceptance, as both interact with a greater degree of religious diversity in migrant populations. A small degree of country specific policies are also investigated as a means to depth to the question.

Kaufmann, Eric P. Shall the Religious inherit the Earth? London, UK: Profile Books Ltd, 2010.

Classic secularization theory suggests that with development religion should see dramatic decreases in organization and even belief. This volume helps illustrate the limits of that theoretical structure evaluating the demographical foundations of rising fundamentalism or increased religiosity globally. The continued expansion of religion is heavily evaluated.

Fox, Jonathan. A World Survey of Religion and the State. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2008.

Initially written to quantify state support for religion this book been expanded upon by the Religion and State Project hosted by the Association of Religion Data Archives. Expansive data on the demography of religious groups, minority status, and government policy towards are available.

The Association of Religion Data Archives, Jaime Harris, Robert R. Martin, and Roger Finke. “Data from the ARDA National Profiles, 2011 Update: Religion Indexes, Adherents and Other Data.” Association of Religion Data Archives (Fall 2012).

Extensive amalgamation of demographical variables with a series of political/economic variables (Freedom House, Correlates Of War, World Value Survey, and others).

Toft, Monica Duffy, Daniel Philpott, and Timothy Samuel Shah. God’s Century: Resurgent Religion and Global Politics. New York: W.W. Norton, 2011.

Written for a popular or policy audience, the volume expands the use of religion in influencing politics with a particular focus on fertility declines of more secular states and subsets of the

population with the less expansive declines in more religious populations. The continued influences now and the future are investigated.