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JAMES KADEGHE WARUI

D53/OL/CTY/26217/15

A RESEARCH PROJECT SUBMITTED TO THE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF DEGREE OF MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION (PROJECT MANAGEMENT) OF KENYATTA UNIVERSITY Comment by user: Proposal

MAY, 2019

I declare that, this proposal is my own original work and has not been presented for award of any degree in any university. No part of this proposal should be reproduced without the authority of the author and/or Kenyatta University.

Signature Date .

James Kadeghe Warui,

D53/OL/CTY/26217/15.

This research proposal has been submitted for the course examination with my approval as the University supervisor.

Signature . Date .

Dr. Lucy Ngugi,

Department of Management Science,

Kenyatta University.

This work is dedicated to my family for giving me a chance to pursue an education. I also wish to dedicate this proposal to my colleagues for the encouragement and support they gave me towards the completion of this work

I am thankful to God for the good health and strength He installed upon me to pursue this project. I wish to most sincerely thank my entire family for their overwhelming support throughout this process, they have always been a source of inspiration from whom I get my strength. I also appreciate my friends and colleagues who shared this journey with me and encouraged me in this journey. Comment by user: Need to acknowledge supervisor

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Projects Performance: Completion of the project within estimated budget, time frame, technical requirements fulfilment and objective achievement.

Risk Acceptance: Retention of an identified risk and not taking any other action in order to reduce the risk because its impact and possible consequences can be accepted.

Risk Avoidance: Elimination of hazards, activities and exposures that can negatively affect a project outcome

Risk Mitigation: steps and actions taken to reduce adverse effects of a risk on a project.

Risk Monitoring: Process which tracks and evaluates the levels of risk in a project.

Risk Response Strategy: Action plan to deal with a risk

Risk Response: The process of developing strategic options, and determining actions, to enhance opportunities and reduce threats to the project's objectives.

Risk Transfer: Risk management and control strategy that involves the contractual shifting of a pure risk from one party to another.

Risk: Possibility of unfavourable events occurring and if they do they are likely to adversely affect the performance of the project.

CR: Cloud Risks

EC: European Community

ERM: Enterprise Risk Management

ETRs: Effective Tax Rates

FE: Fixed Effects

ICT: Information Communication Technology

NACOSTI: National Commission for Science, Technology and Innovation

NGO: Non-Governmental Organisations

NHIF: National Hospital Insurance Fund

OLS: Ordinary Least Squares

RM: Risk Management

SMEs: Small and Medium Enterprises

SPSS: Statistical Package for Social Science

UTAUT: Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology

Existence of risk in projects adversely affect their performance. Such risks include compliance risks, financial risks, management risks, organizational risks and technical risks and arise from internal processes, firm factors such as capacity, economic conditions as well as legal and political factors. Consequently, in spite of the overwhelming attention given to projects and the factors that contribute to project success, business organizations and governments have continued to experience failed projects which are not completed on time, have budget overruns, or changed in scope. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of risk response strategies on performance of projects in Kirinyaga County. In particular, the study will seek to establish the effect of risk avoidance, risk acceptance, risk monitoring, risk mitigation and risk transfer on performance of projects in Kirinyaga County. The study will be anchored on the enterprise risk management model, expectancy theory and network theory. The research design used in this study will be descriptive research design while the study targets a population of 135 respondents drawn from project managers, project supervisors, contractors, project officers and finance officers. A census will be conducted in this study. Primary data will be used in this study collected through a semi structured questionnaire. The study will conduct a pilot test to test the validity and reliability of the research instrument. Face and content validity will be tested while reliability will be established via cronbach’s alpha where a coefficient of 0.7 or more will be accepted. Quantitative data will be analysed using descriptive statistics such as frequencies,percentages, means and standard deviation. Include also inferential statistics and the results thereof presented in tables and charts. Qualitative data will be analysed using conceptual content analysis and results presented in prose form. In addition inferential analysis will also be conducted using multiple regression model. Finally ethical considerations will be factored in this study. Comment by user: The research problem is based on project performance not risks. Therefore put it properly in the abstract

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CHAPTER ONE

All projects small and big are exposed to some form of risk. These risks are inherent in the environment in which the project is implemented and may be internal or external. A risk is defined by Giannakis and Papadopoulos (2016) as an event which may or may not occur but if it does it will have some impact on the project. Mentis (2015) noted that sources of such risks include firms, internal processes, firm factors such as capacity, economic conditions as well as legal and political factors. Other risks associated with projects include compliance risks, financial risks, management risks, organizational risks and technical risks. Consequently, in project management risks identification become a primary part of risk management. As such, the project manager must scan the environment within which the firm operates with the aim of identifying possible risk factors and managing those risk factors (Kliem & Ludin, 2019).

Existence of risk in projects adversely affect their performance. Mentis (2015) showed that risks affect the scope, cost, quality, and schedule of projects when they occurs. It is thus paramount for the manager to manage the project risk. The risk management process in project management according to Reason (2016) starts with identifying possible risks, assessing their probability of occurrence, their impact on the project, planning on risk response for each risk, and finally monitoring the project(s). Risk identification may take a creative or prescriptive and creative approach. However, whichever approach is adopted Bromiley, McShane, Nair and Rustambekov (2015) stated that risk identification process must be economical. To identify risks the authors suggested that the management may utilise item checklists or brainstorming.

After risk identification is completed, the management should assess the impact of the risks on the projects. To do this the management may use qualitative measures to quantify the risks. Based on the impact of the risk factors on the project, the management derives a risk response plan (Reason, 2016). In view of Zhang (2016), risk response involves development of strategic options, and determining actions, to enhance opportunities and reduce threats to the project. The process, ensures that each risk element has been identified and factored in the plan.

Project managers are therefore charged with the responsibility of working thoroughly to eliminate the threats before they actually occur. Similarly, the project managers should work to ensure that opportunities occur and decrease the probability and impact of threats and increase the probability and impact of opportunities. For the threats that cannot be mitigated, the project manager needs to have a robust contingency plan and also a response plan if contingencies do not work. Cagliano, Grimaldi and Rafele (2015) outlined five risk response strategies that are commonly adopted by project managers as risk avoidance, risk acceptance, risk monitoring, risk mitigation and risk transference. This study will adopt this classification to operationalize risk response strategies.

Long-term projects are often marred with and failure to identify and manage such uncertainties appropriately may lead to project failure. These failures are usually associated with cost overruns and time overruns which occurs due to lack of appropriate measurement system for assessing and controlling risk and lack of attention to individual project risks. Additionally, Giannakis and Papadopoulos (2016) showed that lack of adequate preparation significantly contributes to project failure. Popaitoon and Siengthai (2014) postulated that when projects are managed effectively, they contribute to the overall wellbeing of the firm and community at large. The long run advantages of project management include attaining specified targeted profits, competitive advantages, increased market share, enhancement of the organization status quo.

Often, projects are considered successful when they are completed within time, budget and achieve the intended objectives. Besides, Muller (2016) found that there are a number of project performance measures including factors such as time limit achievement, working within the budget, approved scope and quality and value of the project. On their part, Kliem and Ludin (2019) concluded that a project is deemed successful if it is beneficial and brings about change to the intended recipients. Further, in view of Kerzner (2017) project performance relates to accomplishment of objectives and goals in fulfilling customer satisfaction and fulfilling technical requirements.

Moreover, Mir and Pinnington (2014) earlier opined that a project should only be considered successful if it is finished within its estimated budget, scheduled time and performs as intended. Cheung (2014) project performance is appraised and quantified using several performance indicators that include cost, safety and health, quality, firm performance, time, endorsement of client and changes. In this study project performance will be measured through completion of the project within estimated budget, time frame, technical requirements fulfilment and objective achievement.

Once a project risks have been identified and assessed, the manager must form a decision on the risk response strategies to be adopted. Claeys and Cauberghe (2014) indicated that risk response strategies refers to the actions taken towards the identified risks and threats. The response strategy and approach taken usually depend on the kind of risks identified. In this sense planning for risk response become a core aspect of risk management as it helps the project management team to develop beforehand the appropriate strategies to reduce the effect of risk exposure facing the project. In developing risk response strategies, Carvalho and Rabechini (2015) stated that it is important to adopt a strategic approach in order to focus attention on the specific risk being addressed.

Hopkinson (2017) observed that there are a number of risk response strategies that include risk avoidance, risk acceptance, risk monitoring and preparation, risk mitigation or reduction and risk transference. Risk avoidance is viewed as the easiest way of removing risk from a project by removing tasks that contain the risk from the project. At times it involves removal of a section of a project which carries the highest risk factor. In this case, proactive risk management planning is a very worthwhile endeavour (Hajmohammad & Vachon, 2016). However, it should be noted that changing a project plan to remove a risk may involve changes in the project scope, resources, and time which may in turn lead to cost overruns. According to Reason, (2016) avoiding a risk means reducing the probability of it happening to zero, usually, by making some adjustments to the original project plan. Thus, activities that are risk bearing will not be approved for execution with a possibility of replacing them with others that are less risky or not risky at all but will lead to the achievement of the set objectives. However, while determining the activities to be eliminated, the manager should consider the opportunity cost of sanctioning the execution of such an activity.

Risk acceptance according to Modarres (2016) involves adopting the risk into the project usually if no other better response strategy is viable. That is a risk cannot be transferred or avoided and the best solution is to accept. Managers mainly adopt this strategy if accepting the risk might be sufficient to proceed with the project and deal with any of its consequences. When this is done, the management might find it prudent to allow for a contingency for time, cost, and resources. This strategy is also adopted when the response to the risk is not warranted by the importance of the risk. Similarly, when the project manager decide to accept a risk, they are agreeing to address the risk if and when it occurs. A contingency plan or reserve may be developed for that eventuality in relation to time, money and resources.

Risk monitoring is similar to accepting the risk and is used for major risks that carry a high probability and severity, but must be accepted by the project.  However the risks must be continuously monitored to establish its effects on the project. The strategy involves creating plans for monitoring the triggers that activate the risk and building action plans that can be immediately mobilized upon occurrence of such risks. Cite source of information.

Risk mitigation on the other hand implies reduction of the impact of the risk event on the project. In effect risk mitigation aim at reducing exposure of the project to the risk by decreasing the probability of its occurrence. Thus this strategy involves managing the risk in a controlled way, through the elaboration of an intervention plan with actual measures for mitigation, most of the times after it has occurred. One way to reduce risks in a project is to add expenditures that can provide benefits in the long term. The risk may also be mitigated by hiring experts to manage high-risk activities. Those experts may find solutions that the project team has not considered (Hillson, 2015).

Another response strategy that may be adopted by project managers is by transferring risks to another party often who has capability and capacity to handle the risk. The process involves identifying another actor such as contractor, subcontractor, client or designer who is willing to take responsibility for risk management, and who will bear the liability of the risk should it occur. The aim is usually to ensure that the risk is owned and managed by the party best able to deal with it effectively. The response strategy often usually involves payment of a premium associated with the additional work. In this study, Hopkinson (2017) operationalization of risk response strategies into risk avoidance, risk acceptance, risk monitoring and preparation, risk mitigation or reduction and risk transference will be adopted.

Kirinyaga County is one of the Counties in the Central Kenya region headquartered at Kerugoya with four Sub-Counties including Gichugu Sub-County, Mwea Sub-County Kirinyaga Central Sub-County and Ndia Sub-County. The county government of Kirinyaga has undertaken a number of development projects including a Sh 60 million water project in March 2019 intended to benefit over 6,000 households in Mwea sub-county. The project, includes a chlorine treatment plant with the capacity of 22,500 litres.

Other projects in the county include tarmacking of over 173 kilometres of roads at a cost of over Sh1.3 Billion launched in 2018. In addition, the county has installed medical equipment at the Kerugoya County Referral Hospital costing over Sh 800 Million. A further, Sh250 Million was invested by the national government for electricity connection. The county has also launched a modern milk cooling system at Podago dairy cooperative. Other projects include classroom construction projects, youth projects, fish farming and health sector projects. Explain how these projects are performing. Is there any problem?

Project management has over the year received considerable attention by both scholars and practitioners owing to the many problems associated with such projects (Kliem & Ludin, 2019). However, in spite of the overwhelming attention given to projects and the factors that contribute to project success, business organizations and governments have continued to experience failed projects which are not completed on time, have budget overruns, or changed in scope over time. Other projects have failed in terms of quality or customer satisfaction. In Kirinyaga county projects such as the Dhiba water project which was meant to be completed in 2018 has not been completed yet. Further the medical equipment project launched by the National government did not achieve the intended goals even as the county government continue to spend money on them (Macharia & Ngugi, 2019).

Several studies have been conducted on the effect of risk response strategies. For instance,

Wabomba (2015) sought to investigate the influence of risk management strategies on performance of projects and revealed that the organization adopt change of work plans to avoid risks. Weingarten, Humphreys, Gimenez, and McIvor (2016) conducted a study to investigate the influence of risk prevention on performance supply chain firms and found that supply chain firms adopted risk prevention strategies such as detailed planning, alternative approaches and contingency as a way of risk prevention. Adeleke, Nasidi and Bamgbade (2016) assessed the influence of risk management practices of construction projects in Lagos and found that risk management practices have a positive correlation with project success while Macharia (2017) investigated risk management strategies and performance of public school construction projects in Murang’a County and concluded that risk avoidance strategy has the strongest influence on performance of construction projects.

However, based the literature review, the study noted that while a number of studies have been conducted on risk management strategies few studies have delved on the risk response strategies. Additionally the conducted studies have concentrated on specific projects in the private sector as opposed to projects in the public sector. Additionally, the bulk of the studies were conducted in developed countries and the findings may not be generalised in the current context. This study therefore finds that gaps exist in literature and will seek to fill them by answering the question: what is the effect of risk response strategies on performance of projects in Kirinyaga County, Kenya?

The study seek to determine the effect of risk response strategies on performance of projects in Kirinyaga County, Kenya.

Specifically, the study will seek to achieve the following objectives:

i. To establish the effect of risk avoidance on performance of projects in Kirinyaga County, Kenya;

ii. To assess the effect of risk acceptance on performance of projects in Kirinyaga County, Kenya;

iii. To analyse the effect of risk monitoring on performance of projects in Kirinyaga County, Kenya;

iv. To determine the effect of risk mitigation on performance of projects in Kirinyaga County, Kenya;

v. To evaluate the effect of risk transfer on performance of projects in Kirinyaga County, Kenya

To achieve the objectives, the study will seek answers to the following research questions.

i. What is the effect of risk avoidance on performance of projects in Kirinyaga County, Kenya;

ii. To what extent does risk acceptance affect performance of projects in Kirinyaga County, Kenya;

iii. In what ways does risk monitoring affect performance of projects in Kirinyaga County, Kenya;

iv. How does risk mitigation affect performance of projects in Kirinyaga County, Kenya;

v. To what extent does risk transfer affect performance of projects in Kirinyaga County, Kenya

The findings of this study will be of great relevance to the government and its agencies both at national and county level, risk management and project management consultants, project managers as well as scholars and academicians. The National and county governments and their agencies will find the findings of this study relevant as it highlights the effect risk response strategies on performance of projects. Consequently, they will develop policies related to risk response in projects that will ensure that projects are successful.

The study findings will also be of great relevance to potential investors and their managers as they will find relevant link between risk response strategies and performance of projects. To this end they will come up with relevant strategies to avert the potential risks that are likely to adversely affect their projects. Project managers will benefit from the findings of this study because they will gain a clear understanding on which risks are likely to affect their projects and the appropriate response strategies that may be adopted to ensure success of projects.

The study will be of relevance to project management and risk management consultants who will find a clear link between risks, their response strategies and performance of projects. They will therefore be in a position to enlighten and advise their clients on the most appropriate strategies to deal with risk given the circumstances. Finally, the study findings will be of great relevance to academicians, scholars and researchers. The study findings will provide relevant literature that they will find useful in identifying research gaps and thus advance their research in risk management and project performance.

This purpose of the study is to determine the effect of risk response strategies on performance of projects in Kirinyaga County Kenya. The study will focus on risk avoidance, risk acceptance, risk monitoring, risk mitigation and risk transfer as determinants of performance of projects in Kirinyaga County. The target respondents in the study will be officials in the contracted firms as well as government officials. Particularly, the study will target project managers, project supervisors, contractors, project officers and finance officers. The respondents were selected because they are directly involved in project planning execution and management and they are therefore well versed with projects in the county. The study will be based on data collected for a period of ten years from 2009 to 2018. This period was selected because a number of development projects were undertaken in Kirinyaga County within the period.

The study objective is to determine the effect of risk response strategies on performance of projects in Kirinyaga County Kenya. The focus of the study will thus be limited to risk avoidance, risk acceptance, risk monitoring, risk mitigation and risk transfer. The study will therefore concentrate on these variables and may not tackle other variables that may have a significant effect on performance of projects. In addition, the study will utilize sensitive data relating to success of projects conducted by the government and other development partners in the county. For this reason, the respondents may provide skewed data since they may not want to draw a true picture on the success of such projects. Therefore, the accuracy of the results posted in this study will be limited to the extent that the respondents will be willing to provide accurate and objective responses to the research instrument. Comment by user: More of scope

The respondents in this study are senior managers and county officials who often have busy schedules and there they may not have time to respond to the research questionnaire. Consequently, the process of data collection may take longer than expected which may delay the study as the enumerator collect data from the respondents. The researcher will however seek appointment with the target respondents well in advance on the most appropriate time to fill in the questionnaire.

Moreover, the study will collect data relating to Kirinyaga county projects for a period of ten years. The conclusions reached in this study will therefore be applicable to projects in the county only and may n.t be generalised to other counties unless they have similar projects with similar characteristics. Additionally, the study findings will be based on data collected for a period of ten years only. Since some projects may take more than ten years, the study findings may not be used to make long-term inferences.

The proposal is organised in to three chapters. Chapter one is the introduction to the study and covers the background of the study, statement of the problem, study objectives, significance of the study, scope and limitations of the study and finally limitation of the study. Chapter two consists of the reviewed literature both theoretical and empirical, the summary of the literature gaps as well as the conceptual framework. The third chapter covers the research methodology to be adopted by the researcher, specifically, the chapter is outlined into the research design, study population, sample size and sampling procedure, data collection instrument, data collection procedure, validity and reliability of the research instrument data analysis techniques and the ethical considerations.

The chapter reviews literature relevant to the study constructs. The chapter specifically covers the theoretical literature review, empirical literature review on the study variables, summary of literature review and research gaps and finally the conceptual framework.

This section of the chapter reviews theories on which the study variables are anchored. The theories that form the basis of the study variables are operationalized. This study is anchored on the enterprise risk management model, expectancy theory and network theory.

Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) model is a risk management theory supporters for recommends for the measurement and management of notable risk facing a given entity whole than the management of each risk independently. Its main aim is to combine the risk management silos in an organization into one holistic and comprehensive framework (Nocco & Stulz 2006). According to Hallowell, Molenaar and Fortunato, (2013), the ERM model framework of emphasizes that senior company executives and employees should actively be involved in risk management process of analysing and answering to a wide range of company risks. For this reason, all members of the institution will be encouraged to engage themselves in risk management.

The ERM model also emphasizes that it is important for all organizations to have clear procedures and guidelines for managing resources. According to Olson and Wu (2010) the ERM model asserts that holding policies that define strategic goals, systematic processes, risks appetite and tolerance will go a long way in helping the organizations improve their risk management ability of identifying, analysing, and treating of risks. In addition, the Enterprise Risk Management model emphasizes on the development of risk management culture in which all the participants are empowered and accountable to manage risks (Brustbauer 2016). According to Cormican (2015), ERM practices involve increased competitive advantage, stakeholder confidence and long-term viability of organizations. The ERM has become popular in project management techniques despite the fact that it was developed for management of company risks. Drumll (2001) explains that adopting ERM philosophy in the construction industry is a wise decision as it applies to industries that have very high rates of failure like construction industry. These failures are as a result of failure to identify, mitigate and control risk across the entire business making this theory relevant to this research. This model will specifically be used to support the risk mitigation strategy as an aspect of risk response strategies.

The Expectancy Theory developed by Vroom (1964) proposes that an individual will behave or act in a certain way because they are motivated to select a specific behavior over others due to what they expect the result of that selected behaviour will be. The theorist believes that motivation of the individual is determined by perception of relationship between the actions and rewards. According to Porter (2015) expectancy theory attempts to explain why individuals choose to follow certain courses of action and prefer certain goals or outcomes over others in organizations, particularly in decision-making and leadership. The theory is categorized into three sections namely, valence, expectancy and instrumentality. Expectancy assumes that a certain level of effort will be followed with certain level of performance. Valence represents a value that a given outcome has for individual. Instrumentality relate to the connection between first level outcome like promotion and second level outcome such as raise.

Chen, Ellis and Suresh (2016) analysed Vroom expectancy theory in the context of construction industry, and found that the theory discusses variations of performance in terms of effort which the employee is willing to exert in order to finish a job. Thomas argued that the result performance could be observed based on effectiveness, efficiency, innovation, quality of work, Profitability and productivity. Managers should determine the outcome of each employee values and define adequate and good performance, in terms that are observable and measurable so that employees understand managers’ desires (Kiatkawsin & Han 2017). Project managers should ensure that intended level of performance is attainable by connecting the outcome required by the workers to specific performance. This theory will be used in this study to anchor performance of projects. The theory enhances the stakeholders such as projects managers to develop measurement guide that can give important feedback to workers therefore improving performance of projects.

Network theory is a hypothesis that is used to clarify the structure and working of social frameworks. According to Fang, Marle, Zio&Bocquet (2015) this hypothesis sees social frameworks, for example, organizations or projects as a network that includes nodes and links associating these nodes. For example, in a given projects, the nodes may incorporate members of the project team, the task administrator, suppliers, owner of the project and project financiers. These nodes are associated with different connections such as supplier-buyer relationship, financing, legal, and working connections. The hypothesis clarifies that adjustments or unsettling influences in any node or line inside the system cause a progressively outstretching influence on every single other line and nodes. The theory is frequently used as a part of risk management to clarify and educate the procedure of risk analysis.

Moreover, according to Borsboom (2017), this theory also put more emphasis on the need for organizations and project managers to adopt a systematic approach when analysing and understanding risk rather than dwelling on consequences as one component of the project. It urges project team to consider how different segments of the project are interrelated and how obstruction in one component will influence other components of the project. This point of view of investigating risk empowers managers of the project to think of a more reasonable and all-encompassing evaluation of the effect of specific risk. This theory recommends that in order to judge the success of project management strategies the researcher should establish the extent at which this strategy holistic and comprehensive making this theory relevant to this research.

In this section the study reviews literature on the study variables aimed at identifying research gaps. The study reviewed literature on risk avoidance, risk acceptance, risk monitoring, risk mitigation and risk transfer.

Fiet (1995) the aim of this study is to compare risk avoidance strategies employed by business angels and venture capital firm investors. The study finds that differences in their approaches to evaluating risk lead them to hold predictably different views of the dangers of market and agency risk. The former tend to rely upon the entrepreneur to protect them from losses due to market risk. In as much as this study gives a clear insight on risk avoidance, the study failed to show the relationship between risk avoidance and performance. Comment by user: Very old. Use studies whish are 5 or less years old.

Bhatia (2016) aimed at providing empirical implications of the risk avoidance measure on various variables that are tested in financial literature. The study adopted the ordinarily least squares with clustered standard-errors at the firm level (OLS-CSE) and fixed-effects (FE) regressions. Data was obtained from data is obtained from Compustat, ISS and Thomson Reuters databases. The findings showed ambiguous correlations in relation to firm performance, corporate governance and behavioral finance with the risk avoidance measure.

Drake Lusch and Stekelberg (2019) examined how investors value tax avoidance (measured as the level of cash effective tax rates [ETRs]) and tax risk (measured as the volatility of cash ETRs), and how these constructs interact to influence firm value. The results suggested that investors positively value tax avoidance but negatively value tax risk and, most importantly, that greater tax risk moderates the positive valuation of tax avoidance. However, this study was conducted in America and therefore its findings may not be inferred to the study done in Kenya. Moreover, the study focused on tax avoidance and firm value but failed to show how tax avoidance affects the performance of the firm.

Loewen (2017) sought to find out whether exposure to a risk avoidance message versus a remedy message differentially influence intentions and willingness to engage in risky sexual behavior. The study population comprised of undergraduate students from University of California and Mechanical Turk users who were randomly assigned to a risk avoidance message condition. The study evaluated variations on risk avoidance messages and remedy messages for various outcomes and the results showed that determining if remedy messages induce individuals to participate in risky sexual behavior practices, as results from other remedy studies have shown this effect to be true, remain important.

Kiarie (2013) conducted a study with the aim of understanding both the positive and negative factors that can significantly explain Kenya government ICT officers’ acceptance intention and use behavior for cloud computing. The project empirically validated a modified unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT) model by adding a “Cloud Risk” construct in the Kenyan government ministries context to determine the effect of negative influences in the acceptance and use of the cloud computing paradigm. The study data was collected by use of questionnaires distributed to ICT officers in selected government ministries. The new construct of Cloud Risks (CR), was found to have a significant factor affecting ICT officers’ behavioral intention. However, this research studied risk acceptance on the behavioral intention of officers in Kenyan government ministries officers. The study seeks to identify the effects of risk acceptance on the performance of projects in Kirinyaga County.

Asking and Nilsson (2019) conducted a study with the aim of understanding how the risk acceptance is developed. During a field study in the subject area, observations and interviews were conducted to create a qualitative research based on the respondent’s perceptions about human values, risks, their risk reduction and their opportunities. Culture and traditions together with the possibilities of agriculture made the people willing to stay, despite the reoccurring floods and droughts. The natural hazards were forceful, and many people relied on the government or NGO’s to come up with sustainable solutions.

Benekos and Diamantidis (2017) sought to provide an overview and a brief discussion of risk-based of road tunnels in Greece. Qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative approaches exist for the risk assessment of road tunnels and uses representative traffic and accident data in Greece in a typical tunnel conforming to the minimum infrastructure requirements of the European Directive 2004/54/EC to compare and discuss the resulting risk for each of these methods. An integrated framework for the optimal selection of safety measures based on risk reduction and socio-economic considerations is proposed and its applicability in risk analysis of road tunnels is discussed. This study findings suffers generalizability since it was conducted in Greece.

Kinyua, Ogollah and Mburu (2015) sought to establish the effects of risk management strategies on the project performance of small and medium information communication technology (ICT) enterprises in Nairobi, Kenya. The study adopted a descriptive research design and targeted 48 ICT SMEs in Nairobi, Kenya. Primary data was collected using a questionnaire which was self-administered through drop and pick questionnaires to sampled members of the employees working in the ICT SMEs. The findings showed that there existed a positive relationship between risk management strategies affecting ICT project performance for SMEs in Kenya and were statistically significant at 0.05 level. The study targeted Information Communication Technology for SMEs in Nairobi County while the current study focuses on projects in Kirinyaga County.

Rahman (2018) sought to gain an insight into risk management literature in the field of complex projects, along with understanding of project complexity and the importance of measuring RM performance. In first part of this research, an in-depth review of literature concerning project complexity, project RM and measurement of RM performance is presented. This is then analyzed and validated using two case projects as examples. The empirical analysis and findings of this thesis focus on the importance of RM for complex projects. Through the analysis and discussion, major risks faced by complex construction project, management strategies to mitigate them, RM performance evaluation strategies and the impact of alliance contracting in RM can be understood thoroughly.

Kariu (2018) sought to establish the effect of information technology on performance of unsecured loans; examine the effect of risk analysis on the performance of unsecured loans; assess the effect of risk monitoring on the performance of unsecured loans and find out the effect of risk reporting on the performance of unsecured loans. The study used a descriptive cross sectional research design on Commercial banks in Nanyuki town. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect data. Descriptive statistics and Regression analysis was to carry out data analysis. The study found that that information technology was used in risk management to a large extent and participating banks conducted risk analysis to a large extent.

Wabomba (2015) conducted a study to investigate the influence of risk management strategies on performance of projects among International Development Organizations. The study adopted a correlational predictive research design and data was collected using both documentary study review analysis of concepts used by literature and primary methods. Questionnaires were then administered to project and programme managers involved in managing of International Development projects. Data collected was then analysed using Excel 2013 and findings of the study revealed that the organization adopted changing of work plans to avoid risks, contingency, regular inspections, operational reviews training and skill enhancements in order to prevent risks.

Weingarten, Humphreys, Gimenez, and McIvor (2016) conducted a study to investigate the influence of risk prevention on performance and success of supply chain integration study adopted a descriptive research design and a total of 12 firms dealing with supply of stationery were the study target population. Questionnaires were then successfully administered to the study respondents who consisted of managers, finance offices and procurement officers. Data collected was then statistically analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Findings of the study revealed that the supply chain firms adopted risk prevention strategies such as detailed planning, alternative approaches and contingency as a way of risk prevention. Study findings further implicated that risk prevention practice positively influences the performance of supply chain firms.

Aimable, Shukla and Oduor (2015) conducted a study in Rwanda to investigate the effects of risk management strategies on the performance of construction projects. The study adopted a descriptive research design and a total of 291 project team located in 4 districts were the study population. The study used simple random sampling and the sample size was 169.Study employed structured questionnaires, documentary review and In-depth interviews for data collection and for data analysis the study adopted qualitative analysis techniques. Findings of the study revealed that detailed work plan, safety inspection and having a safety system influence the performance of the construction projects. The study concluded that risk prevention strategy influenced the performance of the construction firms.

Singh, Deep, and Banerjee (2017) carried out a study in India to investigate the influence of risk management practices in India construction firms. The study adopted a descriptive research design and questionnaires were developed based on the existing literature. A total of 152 respondents consisting of project managers, project team, supervisors and general managers of 3 construction firms. Findings of the study revealed that the 3 construction firms used risk prevention strategies such as safety inspections, safety systems, and contingency and detailed work plan to influence the construction projects performance. The study findings further revealed that there are other alternative approaches for risk prevention.

Aduma and Kimutai (2018) conducted study to investigate risk management practices at the National Hospital Insurance Fund in Kenya. A descriptive research design was adopted in the study and a total of 651 management employees at NHIF were the study’ target population. A stratified proportionate random sampling technique was employed and the sample size was 241. Self-administered questionnaires were then administered to the study’ respondents who consisted of staff from finance, Health insurance and legal affairs, Public procurement and human resources departments. The data collected was then analyzed using both descriptive statistics and inferential statistics a test for multicollinearity. Findings of the study revealed that risk transfer influenced performance of NHIF in that use of outsourcing, high cost of risk premiums and insurance policy and contractual agreements to a third party greatly influenced performance of the Funds projects.

Nsiah and Bonnah (2014) conducted a study in Ghana to investigate the effect of risk management practices on Ghanaian banking industry. The study adopted a case study research design and a total of 5 banks located in the rural area consisted of the study target population. The employed questionnaires and face to face in-depth interviews to investigate how risk management practices influenced the performance of the banks. Questionnaires were then successful administered to bank managers, strategic and finance officers. For data analysis, the study employed descriptive and content analysis and findings of the study revealed that risk transfer strategies such as high-risk premiums, signing of contracts and insurance policy influenced the performance of the 5 banks.

Kolo (2015) investigated the influence of project risk management practices in construction projects in Abuja Nigeria. The study adopted a descriptive research design and a total of 12 construction firms in Yola were the study’ target population. Questionnaires were successfully administered to project managers, supervisors and general managers of the firms. Data collected was then analyzed using descriptive analysis and findings of the study revealed that the construction firm adopted risk transfer strategies such as insurance policy and risk premiums influenced performance of the projects in terms of cost time and quality.

Pimchangthong and Boonjing (2017) investigated the effect of risk management practices on performance of IT projects. The study adopted a descriptive research design and a total of 200 project managers, IT managers and IT analysts working in IT firms were interviewed. The researcher successfully administered questionnaires consisting of both open ended and closed ended questions to the study respondents. Data collected was then analysed using descriptive statistics. Findings of the study revealed that risk transfer strategies such as high-risk premiums, signing of legal agreements and outsourcing influenced the performance of the firms IT projects. This study was conducted in Thailand and therefore its findings may not be inferred to the study conducted in Kenya.

From the literature reviewed above, it is evident that a good number of studies have been done on Risk Response Strategies and performance. However none of the studies reviewed was done on Projects in Kirinyaga County. Additionally very few of the studies on Risk Responses have been done locally in Kenya necessitating the need for the current study. The summary of existing literature and research gaps are as shown in the Table 2.1

Indicate source of table

Risk Acceptance

· Addressing the risk

· Developing contingency plans

· Reallocating resources

· Extending project time

Risk Avoidance

· Eliminating project tasks

· Adjustments of project plan

· Replacing project activities

· Postponing project tasks

Project Performance

· Completing project within budget

· Completing project within time frame

· Achieving technical requirements

· Objective achievement

· Project safety and health

Risk Monitoring

· Continuously evaluating risk

· Observing active risk triggers

· Track identified risks

· Developing risk register

·

Independent Variables

Dependent Variable

Risk Mitigation

· Reducing risk exposure

· Controlling risk factors

· Partnering

· Hiring experts

Risk Transfer

· Engaging contactors

· Engaging consultants

· Insuring projects

· Outsourcing

Indicate source of the figure

This chapter outlines the methodology that the researcher will utilize in the study to make conclusions on the effect of risk response strategies on performance of projects in Kirinyaga County, Kenya. The chapter specifies the research design, the targeted population, data collection instruments, data collection procedures, validity and reliability of the research instrument, data analysis and presentation methods and finally the ethical consideration in the study.

A research design is viewed as a roadmap adopted by a researcher in data collection and analysis aimed reporting the findings derived in a detailed but economical manner (Bryman & Bell, 2015). The research design adopted in this study shall be descriptive research design. The design will be adopted because it helps the researcher to describe a particular phenomenon as it existed at the time of the research. Further the design helps the researcher to make inferences and predictions based on what exists. On his part, Sekaran and Bougie (2016) stated that descriptive research design is a systematic in nature and the researcher does not have a direct control of independent variable. Based on this argument the study finds the research design appropriate for this study.

A study population defined by Creswell (2014) as a set of members who belong to a group within which research is carried out and possess homogeneous observable characteristics. On the basis of this definition, the target population for the study will consist of 135 respondents comprising of 10 project managers, 20 project supervisors, 20 contractors, 60 project officers and 25 finance officers as shown in Table 3.1.

Due to the small number of target respondents the study will carry out a census of all project managers, project supervisors, contractors, project officers and finance officers. According to Taylor, Bogdan and DeVault (2015), Census is effective when the sample size is small. Additionally, Bryman and Bell (2015) observed that a census can be used to provide detailed information on all or most elements in the population.

Source: Kirinyaga County Government (2019)

It is important to sample

Primary data will be collected in this study using a semi-structured questionnaire. The questionnaire will have two parts. Part one will provide information relating to the demographic aspects of the respondents while the second part provides data on study variables. The questionnaire will be semi- structured to include both open ended and close ended questions. The structured questions will be designed in a Likert scale Format consisting of a 5-point opinion scale where 1 represents strongly disagree and 5 will represent Strongly Agree. The open ended questions will be used to encourage the respondent to give an in-depth and felt response without feeling held back in illuminating of any information (Bryman & Bell, 2015).

A pilot test will be conducted with aim of eliminating biasness in framing of research questions and data instruments. The test will enable the researcher to identify the limitation and errors of the data collection instrument that will limit the researcher from getting correct answers to the study research questions. The test will also enable the researcher to change the questionnaire in line with study objectives. The pilot test will be conducted on 10% of the study ‘respondent in order to ascertain the liability of the research questions (Yin, 2017). Respondents that will take part in the pilot test will be eliminated from the final sample size in order to avoid biasness. Comment by user: You pilot test in a similar population not the same population you will be using for your study

Validity refers to the extent in which an item measures what its established to measure. Hair and Lukas (2014) defines validity of a data collection instrument questionnaire as the extent to which it measures what it claims to measure. In order to eliminate biasness and unclear phrases the piloted questionnaire will be tested. Testing of the piloted questionnaire will ensure that the final questionnaire has a capability of eliciting information that answers the research question. Content and Construct validity will also be determined in this study. To confirm the validity of the structured questionnaires, questionnaires will be administered to managers and supervisors. Invalid questions will then be removed from the final questionnaires after the review process. Comment by user: Not clear how this will be done. Explain clearly Proposalr variables in a similar manner as this independent variable to the dependent variable establish this so dont lticolline

Reliability refers to the consistency of outcome when a test is carried out over and over. Cronbach's alpha (α) will be employed in the analysis of the pilot test data to determine the internal consistency or average correlation of items in a survey instrument to gauge its reliability. According to Yin (2017), the Cronbach's alpha (α) indicates the extent to which the set of research instruments are reliable making it appropriate for the study. A coefficient value of above 0.7 implies that the research instruments (questionnaire) is reliable thus appropriate for use in the study (Neuman, 2013).

The questionnaires will be administered through drop and pick method so as to allow the respondents adequate time to respond to the research questionnaire. Before the actual data collection visit the researcher will book appointment with the respondents to drop the questionnaire and make any necessary clarifications needed. Further the researcher will collect an introduction letter from the university to be presented to each respondent on demand. Moreover, the researcher will apply for a research permit from the National Commission for Science, Technology and Innovation (NACOSTI) before proceeding to carry out the research.

Both quantitative and qualitative data will be collected in this study.Data collected from the field will first be edited, cleaned and evaluated to establish accuracy, completeness, consistency and usefulness. The qualitative data from the open ended questions will be analysed using conceptual content analysis and results presented in prose form. This involves organising, sorting out, coding and thematically analysing, searching for meaning, interpreting and drawing of conclusions on the basis of concepts.

Once quantitative data is cleaned it will be coded and fed in to the analysis software. Data will be analysed statistically using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) version 23. Both quantitative and qualitative data will be collected in this study. The study will also employ descriptive statistics such as frequency distributions, percentages, mean and standard deviation to analyse the quantitative data. The qualitative data from the open ended questions will be analysed using conceptual content analysis and results presented in prose form. This involves organising, sorting out, coding and thematically analysing, searching for meaning, interpreting and drawing of conclusions on the basis of concepts.

In addition to descriptive statistics, inferential analysis will also be conducted using multiple regression model to establish the effect of risk response strategies performance of Projects in Kirinyaga County, Kenya. The regression model will be of the form:

Y = β0 + β1X1 + β2X2+ β3X3+ β4X4 + β5X5 + ε

Where: - Y = Project Performance

β0 = constant,

β1, β2…β5 = Beta coefficient of the study variables

X1 = Risk Avoidance

X2 =Risk Acceptance

X3 =Risk Monitoring

X4 =Risk Mitigation

X5 =Risk Transfer

ε = Error term.

The decision on the fitness of the model in predicting performance of projects in Kirinyaga County, Kenya. F-statistic will also be computed. at 95% confidence level to test whether there is any significant relationship between risk response strategies and performance of projects in Kirinyaga County. The decision on the fitness of the model will be reached using the significance level at 0.05. The study will use t-values and significance level for each of the study coefficient to establish if each risk response strategy is significant in determining projects performance. What about the other diagnostics tests for the multiple regression model e.r. linearity, normality, homoscedasticity and multicollinearity?

The study will be conducted in an ethical manner. Neuman (2013) opined that norms that governs human conduct and have a significant effect on welfare of human is referred to as ethics. The researcher will ensure that the study is undertaken in an ethical manner. By seeking permission before conducting the research in form of formal letter of request elaborating the study purpose. The researcher will also assure the respondents that any information submitted will be treated with utmost confidentiality. The researcher will also conduct the research in a professional manner.

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Kenyatta University

P.O. Box 43844-00100

Nairobi,

Kenya.

Tel: +254 20 870 Ext 4000/3000

Dear Sir/Madam,

REF: Invitation to Participate in a Research

I am a student at Kenyatta University currently conducting a research on RISK RESPONSE STRATEGIES AND PERFORMANCE OF PROJECTS IN KIRINYAGA COUNTY, KENYA. I humbly request that you spare a few minutes off your schedule to complete the attached questionnaire. The questions seek your opinions regarding your organization relationship marketing and customer satisfaction. Kindly respond with your most honest opinion. Your anonymity is assured and the information you provide will remain confidential.

Thank you for participating in this study. Your cooperation and contribution in this research is appreciated.

Yours faithfully,

XXXXXXXXX Comment by user: Indicate your name

This questionnaire is designed to collect data on risk response strategies and performance of projects in Kirinyaga County, Kenya. All information provided will be treated with confidentiality.

Answer all questions as indicated by either filling in the blank or ticking the option that applies.

Part one: Demographic Information

1) What is your gender? Male [ ] Female [ ]

2) What is your age?

18-25 years [ ] 26-35 years [ ]

36-45years [ ] 46 years and above [ ]

3) For how long have been on this project?

Below 1 years [ ] 2-3 years [ ]

4-5years [ ] 46 years and above [ ]

4) What is your role in this project?

Project Managers [ ]

Project Supervisor [ ]

Contractor [ ]

Project Officer [ ]

Finance Officer [ ]

5) What is your highest level of education?

Post graduate [ ] Undergraduate [ ]

Diploma [ ] Certificate [ ]

PART 2: Risk Response Strategies and Performance of projects in Kirinyaga County Comment by user: Review the questionnaire and measure variables independently i.e. don’t phrase a question in a manner that relates the independent variable to the dependent variable

Risk Avoidance

6) To what extent do you think risk avoidance affect the Performance of projects in Kirinyaga County? Comment by user: This is a leading question which will not add value to your study. The objective of the study is to establish this so don’t ask the respondents they will only tell you what they think since they have not established it.

Very great extent [5] Moderate extent [3] Very low extent [1]

Great extent [4] Low extent [2]

7) To what extent do the following aspects risk avoidance affect the Performance of projects in Kirinyaga County? Comment by user: Measure each variable separately avoid joiniong independent varable and the dependent variable. Comment by user: Rephrasd question to avoid performance

Use a scale of 1-5 where 1= Very great extent; 2 Great extent; 3= Moderate extent; 4= Low Extent and 5= Very Low Extent

8) In your opinion how do the aspects of risk avoidance affect the performance of projects in Kirinyaga County?

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Risk Acceptance Comment by user: See previous comments

9) To what extent does risk acceptance affect the performance of projects in Kirinyaga County?

Very great extent [5] Moderate extent [3] Very low extent [1]

Great extent [4] Low extent [2]

10) To what extent do the following aspects of risk acceptance affect the Performance of projects in Kirinyaga County? Comment by user: See previous comments

Use a scale of 1-5 where 1= Very great extent; 2 Great extent; 3= Moderate extent; 4= Low Extent and 5= Very Low Extent

11) In your opinion how do the aspects of risk acceptance affect the performance of projects in Kirinyaga County? Comment by user: See previous comments

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Risk Monitoring

12) To what extent does risk monitoring affect the Performance of projects in Kirinyaga County? Comment by user: See previous comments

Very great extent [5] Moderate extent [3] Very low extent [1]

Great extent [4] Low extent [2]

13) To what extent do the following aspects of risk monitoring affect the Performance of projects in Kirinyaga County? Comment by user: See previous comments

Use a scale of 1-5 where 1= Very great extent; 2 Great extent; 3= Moderate extent; 4= Low Extent and 5= Very Low Extent

14) In your opinion how do the aspects of risk monitoring affect the performance of projects in Kirinyaga County? Comment by user: See previous comments

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Risk Mitigation

15) To what extent does risk mitigation affect the operational performance of projects in Kirinyaga County? Comment by user: See previous comments

Very great extent [5] Moderate extent [3] Very low extent [1]

Great extent [4] Low extent [2]

16) To what extent do the following aspects of risk mitigation affect performance of projects in Kirinyaga County? Comment by user: See previous comments

17) In your opinion how do the aspects of risk mitigation affect the performance of projects in Kirinyaga County? Comment by user: See previous comments

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Risk Transfer

18) To what extent does risk transfer affect the Performance of projects in Kirinyaga County? Comment by user: See previous comments

Very great extent [5] Moderate extent [3] Very low extent [1]

Great extent [4] Low extent [2]

19) To what extent do the following aspects of risk transfer affect the Performance of projects in Kirinyaga County? Use a scale of 1-5 where 1= Very great extent; 2 Great extent; 3= Moderate extent; 4= Low Extent and 5= Very Low Extent Comment by user: See previous comments

20) In your opinion how do the aspects of risk transfer affect the performance of projects in Kirinyaga County? Comment by user: See previous comments

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Performance of Projects in Kirinyaga County Comment by user: Measure the other variables in a similar manner as this

21) What is your level of agreement with how projects in Kirinyaga County have met the outlined criteria?

Use a scale of 1-5 where 1= Very great extent; 2 Great extent; 3= Moderate extent; 4= Low Extent and 5= Very Low Extent

End of Questionnaire

Thank you for participating.