TERM PAPER OUTLINE

Adolescent Psychosocial Development: A Review of Longitudinal Models and Research

Wim Meeus Utrecht University and Tilburg University

This review used 4 types of longitudinal models (descriptive models, prediction models, developmental sequence models and longitudinal mediation models) to identify regular patterns of psychosocial development in adolescence. Eight patterns of adolescent development were observed across countries: (1) adolescent maturation in multiple developmental domains; (2) heterogeneous continuity of personal relationships; (3) good goes together with good, and bad with bad, across time in adolescence; (4) parents transmit values and behaviors to their adolescent children over time; (5) adolescent psychopathology leads to erosion of personal relationships with parents and peers; (6) adolescent psychopathology prevents adolescent independence from parents; (7) parental interference in personal issues of adoles- cents has counterproductive effects over time; (8) mood variability and (social and personal) uncertainty are mechanisms that maintain psychopathology in adolescence. Principles of life span developmental psychology are used to discuss adolescent maturation, and a developmental contextual perspective is used to discuss links between the various developmental patterns. Strengths and limitations of the various longitudinal models, and links between longitudinal and experimental research are discussed.

Keywords: adolescent development, longitudinal models, longitudinal research

Adolescence has been coined as a critical period of psychosocial development. During the second decade of life, individuals are assumed to acquire a stable personality, to find their identity, to learn the mechanisms of adult personal relationships, and to learn to cope with various problem behaviors. Do young people achieve all these psychosocial developmental goals? And if so, can we identity developmental patterns that capture the gist of these pro- cesses?

The aim of the present overview is to identify regular patterns of adolescent psychosocial development. A regular pattern is a set of results that pertains to one developmental domain (for instance the self), and has been found in multiple studies, across multiple countries, using similar or distinct but conceptually comparable measures (for instance on identity, personality and self-concept clarity). Results of multiple studies using the same or different data sets are both included. My approach was inspired by a recent call for replication in developmental research (Duncan, Engel, Claes-

sens, & Dowsett, 2014). To identify regular developmental pat- terns, I use four types of longitudinal models: (1) descriptive models, or models that describe single developmental processes; (2) prediction models, which estimate the extent to which a later developmental Process B can be predicted by the earlier Process A (prediction models mainly serve to identify earlier markers of related developmental phenomena later in time— only under cer- tain conditions can they inform us on the real developmental interplay of various processes); (3) developmental sequence mod- els, which examine the extent to which developmental Process A precedes developmental Process B (in other words, they identify the situation where Process A drives Process B, whereas Process B does not drive Process A. Developmental sequence models require that both Processes A and B lare measured at all the various time points of a longitudinal study); (4) longitudinal mediation models, which aim to identify the mechanisms that underlie developmental sequence. As can be seen from this description, the first group of models addresses development of single processes, whereas the Models 2, 3, and 4 address covariation of several developmental processes over time. The covariation models are developmental contextual models (Lerner, 1991, 1996) and assume person– context interactions or transactions to be drivers of development over time. On the other hand, the descriptive models focus on single developmental units of analysis. This single-unit approach is needed to study normative development, as well as multidirection- ality and relative plasticity of development (Baltes, 1987). The descriptive models include findings from variable and person- centered studies, whereas the prediction models, the developmen- tal sequence models, and the longitudinal mediation models use variable-centered studies only. This is due to the fact that covari- ation models using a person-centered approach are very scarce in the literature. The review covers three domains of psychosocial

Wim Meeus, Research Centre Adolescent Development, Utrecht Uni- versity, and Department of Developmental Psychology, Tilburg Univer- sity.

This study was supported by grants to Wim Meeus and the Consortium Individual Development (Grant 024.001.003) from the Netherlands Orga- nization for Scientific Research. I thank Loes Keijsers for assistance in data-analysis.

Portions of this article were presented at invited addresses at the 15th Biennial Meeting of the Society for Research on Adolescence, Austin Texas, 2014 and the 14th Biennial Meeting of the European Association for Research on Adolescence, Izmir/Çeşme, Turkey, 2014.

Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Wim Meeus, Research Centre Adolescent Development, Utrecht University, PO Box 80.140, 3508 TC Utrecht, the Netherlands. E-mail: [email protected]

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Developmental Psychology © 2016 American Psychological Association 2016, Vol. 52, No. 12, 1969 –1993 0012-1649/16/$12.00 http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/dev0000243

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development: personality and identity, personal relationships and empathy, and problem behavior.

I use a two-step approach in my review of longitudinal research. First, I present findings from our own, Dutch, longitudinal com- munity sample studies: Utrecht Study of Adolescent Development, 1991–1997 (USAD), CONflict And Management Of RElationships (CONAMORE), Research on Adolescent Development and Relation- ships (RADAR)-young, and RADAR-old (in earlier publications labeled as CONAMORE family sample; see Van Doorn, Branje, & Meeus, 2007). USAD is a three-wave longitudinal study, with waves conducted in 1991, 1994, and 1997. The longitudinal sam- ple consisted of 1,302 participants (42% boys), divided into 25% early adolescents aged 12 to 14, 26% middle adolescents aged 15 to 17, 20% late adolescents aged 18 to 20, and 29% post adoles- cents aged 21 to 24 at baseline. The respondents’ educational level was 16% low-level, 41% middle-level, 25% high-level, and 18% highest level. CONAMORE (2001–2010) is a six-wave longitudi- nal study; the first five waves were conducted annually between 2001 and 2005, and an additional sixth wave was completed in 2010. The longitudinal sample consisted of 1,313 participants (48.5% boys), divided into an early to-middle adolescent cohort (n � 923; 70.3%), who were 12.4 years of age on average at baseline, and a middle-to-late adolescent cohort (n � 390; 29.7%) with an average age of 16.7 years at baseline. The sample was relatively highly educated: about 20% of the respondents was lower educated, whereas 80% completed middle-level or high- level education. RADAR-young (2005–present) is an ongoing longitudinal study. The study started in 2005, and until now eight waves have been conducted. The sample consisted of 497 adoles- cents (56.9% boys), their fathers and mothers, one sibling and the adolescent’s best friend. At first measurement, the adolescents were 13.03 years of age and in their first year of junior high school. Most adolescents were native Dutch (95%), and came from fam- ilies classified as having medium or high socioeconomic status (89%). RADAR-old (2002–present) is an ongoing longitudinal study, and until now 11 waves have been conducted. The sample consisted of 323 adolescents (48.9% boys), and their fathers and mothers. At first measurement, the adolescents were 13.2 years of age and in their first year of junior high school. Most adolescents came from families classified as having medium or high socioeconomic status (70%). More information about USAD, CONAMORE, and both RADAR studies can be found in Appendix A.

Second, I present findings of longitudinal community sample studies conducted in various countries across the world. If present, I also add findings from other Dutch studies. This second step aims to clarify whether the results found in our studies are comparable to those of other Dutch studies, generalize to findings in other countries, and can be qualified as developmental patterns. To achieve a good coverage of the field, I used two complimentary approaches to search for available longitudinal studies. I began by conducting a systematic literature review in PsycINFO, Web of Science, and Scopus to identify empirical articles published through March 2016. I used various search terms; a list of them can be found in Appendix B. These searches yielded 6,828 documents. Finally, I scanned reference lists of relevant articles included in the searches. I included documents that addressed one of the topics of the present review, studied adolescence (ages 12 to 20) and post adolescence (ages 21 to 24), and presented longitudinal findings.

To reduce the number of references in the present article, I use findings of meta-analyses or systematic reviews when available. The present review covers results from seven meta-analyses and systematic reviews and 157 longitudinal studies. The longitudinal studies yielded 178 research reports, with 21 studies including findings for multiple developmental patterns.

Third, I present gender differences in the various developmental patterns in a separate paragraph at the end of the article.

Descriptive Models

I use five approaches to describe development. Two approaches are variable-centered and assess mean-level change and rank-order stability at the group level. Mean-level change models index the extent to which a sample shows an increase or decrease of certain traits or characteristics over time. Rank-order stability models indicate the extent to which the relative position of individuals within a group becomes more or less stable over time. Three approaches are person-centered. The first indexes profile stability or the within-person stability of the rank-order of traits or charac- teristics. Profile stability is calculated with Q-correlations that range from �1 to 1. Higher positive Q-correlations indicate more stable ranking of traits within a person, and are an index of the formal organization of a personality profile. Two other approaches address heterogeneity of development. The first approach uses latent class growth analysis or general mixture modeling and identifies developmental trajectories over time, such as trajectories that vary in levels and increases/decreases of substance use. In this approach, each individual is assigned to one trajectory over time, such as a trajectory of high and increasing substance use. The second approach uses latent Markov chain models and estimates trajectory chains; that is, trajectories in which individuals can have different discrete positions at every time point of the trajectory (Kaplan, 2008). An example is latent transition analysis of sub- stance use, showing that an individual has the following positions in a five-wave study: high and increasing substance use (HISU), medium substance use (MSU), MSU, HISU, HISU.

Personality and Identity

Mean-Level Change

In a number of studies, we observed maturation of personality and identity in adolescence. Klimstra, Hale, Raaijmakers, Branje, and Meeus (2009) found systematic increases of the personality traits agreeableness and emotional stability between the ages 12 and 20, along with some evidence for increase of extraversion and openness. Similarly, Klimstra, Hale, Raaijmakers, Branje, and Meeus (2010) found that identity uncertainty, as indexed by re- consideration of commitment, decreased in early to-middle ado- lescence (ages 12 to 16). Additionally, exploration in depth, in- dexing active maintenance of present commitments, increased in middle-to-late adolescence (ages 16 to 20). Thus, adolescents seemed to switch from identity doubt to identity maintenance. These results were not replicated in a study by Crocetti, Klimstra, Hale, Koot, and Meeus (2013). The age range of this sample, however, was more restricted than that of the study by Klimstra et al. (2010).

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Roberts, Walton, and Viechtbauer (2006) conducted a meta- analysis on mean-level change in personality traits. Their analysis included results of studies into early, middle, late and post ado- lescents from Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and the United States. They found mean-level increases of emotional sta- bility and (facets of) extraversion in early to-middle adolescence, of openness in late adolescence, and of conscientiousness in post adolescence. Denissen, van Aken, Penke, and Wood (2013) con- ducted a meta-analysis on mean-level change in conscientiousness and openness in adolescence (ages 10 to 20), using studies from Germany, Estonia, Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and United States that were not included in the analysis by Roberts et al. They found a significant increase of both traits in middle-to-late adoles- cence. Two studies from Estonia (Pullmann, Raudsepp, & Allik, 2006) and Germany (Lüdtke, Trautwein, & Husemann, 2009) were not included in either meta-analysis. Pullmann et al. (2006) re- ported increases in emotional stability, extraversion, and openness in early to-middle adolescence, and Lüdtke et al. (2009) found increases in all Big Five traits in late adolescence. Taken together, these findings suggest that emotional stability increases from early adolescence onward, and that conscientiousness, openness, and extraversion increase after early to-middle adolescence. Across all studies, we systematically observe more mean-level increases of personality traits than decreases.

Meeus (2011) presented the first systematic review of mean- level change in identity dimensions (commitment, exploration, and reconsideration of commitments) and identity status scale studies, that is, longitudinal studies using separate scales for the identity statuses diffusion, moratorium, foreclosure, and achievement. The review included longitudinal studies from Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, and the United States published between 2000 and 2010 and covered the ages 12 to 21. For both the identity dimen- sions and identity scales, Meeus found evidence for systematic identity maturation: increases in commitment and exploration, and decreases in reconsideration, as well as systematic decreases in the identity scales diffusion, moratorium, and foreclosure, along with stability of achievement. Two recent Belgian (Luyckx, Teppers, Klimstra, & Rassart, 2014; Luyckx, Vansteenkiste, Goossens, & Duriez, 2009), and two Rumanian studies using the same sample (Negru-Subtirica, Pop, & Crocetti, 2015; Pop, Negru-Subtirica, Crocetti, Opre, & Meeus, 2016) were not included in the review by Meeus. Both studies by Luyckx and colleagues found systematic identity maturation in late adolescence: increases of commitment and exploration. The studies of Negru-Subtirica et al. (2015) and Pop et al. (2016), however, reported relatively small and inconsis- tent changes of commitment and exploration. This may have been due to the limited time-span of both studies (3 waves within 1 year).

Rank-Order Stability

Again, we found maturation of personality and identity. Across Big Five traits, Klimstra et al. (2009) found rank-order stability to increase in adolescence, and generally to be higher in middle-to- late adolescence than in early-to-middle adolescence. Klimstra et al. (2010) found rank-order stability of the identity dimensions commitment, reconsideration of commitment, and exploration in depth to be similar in both age groups. Crocetti, Rubini, Branje, Koot, and Meeus (2016) found rank-order stability of self-concept

clarity to increase, and to be higher in late adolescence than in early adolescence.

Findings from the meta-analysis of rank-order stability in per- sonality traits by Roberts and DelVecchio (2000) concur with those of Klimstra et al. (2009). The analysis by Roberts and DelVecchio included results of studies into early, middle, late, and post adolescents from Australia, Canada, Finland, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, and the United States. They found a small but systematic increase in rank-order stability of personality traits from early to post adolescence.

Profile Stability

Our studies provided evidence for intraindividual maturation of personality and identity. Klimstra et al. (2009) found profile sta- bility of personality traits to be higher in middle-to-late adoles- cence (.75 across waves) than in early-to-middle adolescence (.59 across waves). Additionally, Klimstra et al. (2010) found profile stability of identity dimensions to increase in adolescence. A study by Klimstra, Luyckx, Hale, Goossens, and Meeus (2010) used a Belgian sample of late adolescents. Their findings concur with those of Klimstra et al. (2009): Across waves, a profile stability of .75 was found.

Heterogeneity: Latent Markov Chains

Meeus, Van de Schoot, Klimstra, and Branje (2011) used Big Five traits to construct personality types. Like profile stability, personality types are configurations of traits within persons, with the difference being that a personality profile indicates the consis- tency of the rank order of traits within persons, whereas person- ality types offer a configuration of mean scores of traits within persons. Meeus et al. (2011) found the well-known personality types of Block and Block (1980): resilients (high on all Big Five traits), overcontrollers (high on agreeableness and conscientious- ness, low on extraversion and emotional stability) and undercon- trollers (high on extraversion and low on agreeableness conscien- tiousness and openness). Resilients (R) are the most adjusted personality type, whereas overcontrollers (O) are prone to inter- nalizing problems and undercontrollers (U) to externalizing prob- lems. Meeus et al. (2011) found a significant increase of R (from 39.2% to 55.9%) along with a significant decrease of O (48.8 to 43.8%) and U (12 to .3%) across adolescence.

Meeus, Van de Schoot, Keijsers, Schwartz, and Branje (2010) estimated latent Markov chains of identity formation. They found five identity statuses: diffusion (low on commitment [C], low on reconsideration of commitment [R], and low on in-depth explora- tion of commitment [E]), moratorium (C low, R high, and E low), searching moratorium (C, R, and E high), closure (C moderately high, R low, and E low), and achievement (C high, R very low, and E high). In Meeus and Crocetti’s dual-cycle model of identity formation (Meeus et al., 2010), the statuses moratorium (M) and searching moratorium (SM) index identity formation: an ongoing dialectic between making commitments and reconsidering them. The statuses closure (C) and achievement (A) index passive and active maintenance of strong commitments, respectively; in both statuses, commitments are strong, reconsideration of them is ab- sent, and in-depth exploration of commitments is weak and strong, respectively. Meeus et al. (2010) found a significant decrease of

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1971ADOLESCENT DEVELOPMENT AND LONGITUDINAL MODELS

diffusion, moratorium, and searching moratorium (from 34.1 to 18.8% across these statuses), along with a significant increase of closure and achievement (from 65.9 to 81.2%) across adolescence. These findings imply that, during adolescence, individuals move out of the process of identity formation and into the process of identity maintenance.

Kroger, Martinussen, and Marcia (2010) conducted a meta- analysis on longitudinal change in identity status. Their analysis included results of studies into middle, late, and post adolescents from Finland, New Zealand and the United States. Although Kroger et al. (2010) did not use latent Markov modeling, their results are informative about identity maturation. They found the proportion of progressive identity status shifts (diffusion (D) ¡ foreclosure (F), D ¡ moratorium (M), D ¡ achievement (A), F ¡ M, F ¡ A, M ¡ A) to be over twice as large as the proportion of regressive identity status shifts (A ¡ M, A ¡ F, A ¡ D, M ¡ F, M ¡ D, F ¡ D). Thus, Kroger et al. (2010) also found systematic identity maturation.

Personal Relationships and Empathy

Mean-Level Change

Parent-adolescent relationships. In a number of studies, we found parent–adolescent relationships to become more symmetri- cal in adolescence. De Goede, Branje, and Meeus (2009b) found support from mothers and fathers to decrease somewhat during adolescence (ages 12 to 19), conflict with mothers and fathers to peak in middle adolescence and decrease thereafter, and maternal and paternal power to decrease linearly. This suggests that sup- portive, conflictual and parent-dominated relationships in the first half of adolescence change into a less supportive, more harmoni- ous, and egalitarian relationships at the end of adolescence. Con- sistent with these findings, Keijsers, Frijns, Branje, and Meeus (2009) found parental control to decrease in early and middle adolescence (adolescent, maternal and paternal reports), Keijsers et al. (2012) found parental prohibition of friendships to decrease (maternal and paternal reports) in early and middle adolescence, and Van Doorn, Branje, Vandervalk, De Goede, and Meeus (2011) found problem solving in adolescent–parent conflict to increase (adolescent and father reports) in early and middle adolescence. Studies also found growing adolescent individuation in relation- ships with parents. Keijsers et al. (2009) found adolescent disclo- sure to parents to decrease (adolescent, maternal, and paternal reports), and Keijsers, Branje, Frijns, Finkenauer, and Meeus (2010) found adolescent secrecy to increase (adolescent reports) in early and middle adolescence.

A series of longitudinal studies conducted in Belgium (Vans- teenkiste, Soenens, Van Petegem, & Duriez, 2014), Sweden (Kerr, Stattin, & Burk, 2010), and (mainly) the United States (Abar, Jackson, & Wood, 2014; Glatz & Buchanan, 2015; Hafen & Laursen, 2009; Keijsers, Loeber, Branje, & Meeus, 2012; Kuhn & Laird, 2011; McGue, Elkins, Walden, & Iacono, 2005; Rodríguez, Perez-Brena, Updegraff, & Umana-Taylor, 2014; Steeger & Gon- doli, 2013; Walkner & Rueter, 2014) addressed similar aspects of parent–adolescent relationships. Hafen and Laursen (2009); Kei- jsers et al. (2012); McGue et al. (2005); Rodríguez et al. (2014), and Walkner and Rueter (2014) found parental support, quality of parent–adolescent relationships, parental warmth, and parental

closeness to decrease during early, middle, and late adolescence. Kerr et al. (2010); Glatz and Buchanan (2015); Kuhn and Laird (2011), and Vansteenkiste et al. (2014) found decreases in parental control, parental efficacy, legitimacy of parental authority, and parental prohibition of friendships. Abar et al. (2014) and Kerr et al. (2010) found decreases in parental knowledge. Finally, Kerr et al. (2010) found decreases in adolescent disclosure to parents. Again, these findings suggest that parent–adolescent relationships become less supportive and more egalitarian during adolescence, and provide evidence for growing adolescent individuation from parents.

Adolescent-best friend relationships. Adolescents’ relation- ships with best friends were found to become more supportive during adolescence in our studies. De Goede, Branje, and Meeus (2009a) found support from best friends to systematically increase between ages 12 and 19, and both conflict with best friends and dominance by best friends to peak in middle adolescence. Yu, Branje, Keijsers, and Meeus (2014a) reported an increase of prob- lem solving and increases of withdrawal and compliance in con- flicts with best friends in early to-middle adolescence. Thus, support in friendships increases and adolescents learn to solve problems in conflicts. However, conflicts and power and compli- ance issues stay present in best friendships in early to-middle adolescence. Similar results were reported in two longitudinal studies from the United States. McNelles and Connolly (1999) and Way and Greene (2006) found increases in intimacy and quality of friendships, respectively.

Empathy. Van der Graaff et al. (2014) found different devel- opmental patterns for cognitive empathy (the understanding of another’s viewpoints) and affective empathy (the sympathetic re- sponse to another’s misfortunes) between the ages 13 and 18. Cognitive empathy increased for both males and females, whereas affective empathy showed a dip in middle adolescence for males, and remained stable at a fairly high level for females. Brouns et al. (2013) found both cognitive and affective empathy to grow be- tween the ages 16 and 19. Three longitudinal studies from Belgium (Miklikowska et al., 2011) and the United States (Davis & Franzoi, 1991; Eisenberg, Cumberland, Guthrie, Murphy, & Shepard, 2005) also found increases in cognitive empathy during adolescence, along with inconsistent results for affective empathy.

Heterogeneity: Developmental Trajectories

Adolescent-best friend relationships. Selfhout, Branje, and Meeus (2009) identified two trajectory groups of friendships be- tween the ages of 12 and 20: interdependent and disengaged friendships. For both males and females, interdependent friend- ships showed systematically higher levels of both commitment to best friends and balanced relatedness in relationships with best friends, compared with disengaged friendships. Mean levels of commitment were stable over time in both types, whereas balanced relatedness increased. Thus, in both groups, we observed growing intimacy in friendships.

Empathy. Van Lissa et al. (2015) identified three trajectory groups of empathy development between the ages 13 and 18. The high empathy class showed the highest levels of cognitive and affective empathy, and the strongest increase of cognitive empa- thy. The average empathy class had intermediate levels of cogni- tive and affective empathy, with a small increase of cognitive

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empathy. Finally, the low empathy class showed the lowest levels of cognitive and affective empathy, with a notable dip of both forms of empathy in middle adolescence. Van Lissa et al. found divergence in cognitive empathy, in that class differences in cog- nitive empathy became larger across time. Developmental hetero- geneity of adolescent-best friend relationships and empathy has not been studied elsewhere, and need to be replicated in other countries.

Problem Behavior

Mean-Level Change

Internalizing problems. Nelemans, Hale, Branje, Raaijmak- ers, et al. (2014) studied the development of anxiety disorder symptoms between the ages 12 and 19. School anxiety and sepa- ration anxiety decreased during adolescence, panic disorder de- creased with a small rebound at the end of adolescence, social anxiety peaked in middle adolescence, and generalized anxiety decreased from early to middle adolescence and increased sub- stantially thereafter. These findings concur with those of another Dutch study by Van Oort, Greaves-Lord, Verhulst, Ormel, and Huizink (2009), with one exception: they found a stronger rebound of social anxiety.

Hale, Raaijmakers, Muris, Van Hoof, and Meeus (2009) found a small but systematic increase of depressive symptoms between the ages 12 and 20. This increase was also reported by Van Oort et al. (2009). A series of longitudinal studies conducted in Canada (Bélanger & Marcotte, 2013), New Zealand (Hankin et al., 1998) and the United States (Abela & Hankin, 2011; Cole et al., 2002; Garber, Keiley, & Martin, 2002; Ge, Conger, & Elder, 2001; Gutman & Eccles, 2007; Hankin et al., 2015; Keenan, Culbert, Grimm, Hipwell, & Stepp, 2014; Kofler et al., 2011; Kouros & Garber, 2014; Measelle, Stice, & Hogansen, 2006; Morris, Ciesla, & Garber, 2010; Stice, Ragan, & Randall, 2004; Windle & Windle, 2001; Wrosch & Miller, 2009) addressed the development of depression in adolescence. The vast majority of these studies found depression to increase across adolescence. Exceptions were Windle and Windle (2001), who found no mean-level change, and Keenan et al. (2014) and Wrosch and Miller (2009), who reported (small) decreases in depression. In these three studies, no explanations were provided for the unexpected developmental trends. In sum, findings for internalizing problems were consistent across countries, but mixed in nature: anxiety gener- ally decreased, whereas depression increased during adolescence.

Externalizing problems. Meeus, Branje, and Overbeek (2004) found the well-known age-crime curve of delinquency (Farrington, 1986), namely a substantial increase from early to middle adolescence and a systematic decrease thereafter. Meeus, Van de Schoot, Hale, Hawk, and Branje (2016) found a systematic decrease of direct aggression during adolescence.

The age-crime curve of delinquency has been found in multiple longitudinal studies in the Netherlands (Bersani, Nieuwbeerta, & Laub, 2009; Chhangur et al., 2015), United Kingdom (Farrington, 1986, 1995; Nagin & Land, 1993; Piquero et al., 2012), and the United States (Farrington, 1986; Keijsers, Loeber, Branje, & Meeus, 2011; Keijsers, Loeber, Branje, & Meeus, 2012; Sampson & Laub, 2003), using self-report data and police records of con- victions. Note that this last group of studies used both community samples and samples of convicted individuals. A decrease in direct

aggression has been found in longitudinal studies from Canada (Cleverley, Szatmari, Vaillancourt, Boyle, & Lipman, 2012; Nagin & Tremblay, 1999), Italy (Caprara et al., 2014), and the United States (Xie, Drabick, & Chen, 2011). In sum, across studies, we found individuals to grow out of direct aggression and delinquency during adolescence.

Heterogeneity: Latent Markov Chains

Direct aggression and generalized anxiety. Meeus et al. (2016) identified four types of direct aggression and generalized anxiety: an anxious type (high on anxiety and low on direct aggression), an aggressive type (high on aggression and low on generalized anxiety), a comorbid aggressive type (high on both aggression and anxiety), and a no problems type (low on both). Using latent transition analysis, they found a decrease of both aggressive types especially in the second half of adolescence, and systematic increase of the anxious and no problems types between the ages 12 and 20. Until now, these results have not been repli- cated.

Developmental Patterns

Maturation

Across longitudinal models and developmental domains, we observe systematic patterns of normative development. The mean- level change models generally reveal growth of personality traits, increase in identity commitments along with decrease in identity uncertainty, increase in symmetrical parent–adolescent relation- ships, increase in adolescent individuation in relationships with par- ents, increase in support and mutual understanding in adolescent-best friend relationships, increase in cognitive empathy, and decrease in both direct aggression and delinquency from middle adolescence onward. The increase of rank-order stability of personality points to personality maturation at the group level, in that the relative position of adolescents within the group of peers became more fixed. Finally, the longitudinal identity status studies show sys- tematic identity maturation at the individual level. As these find- ings were observed in our studies as well as in studies from various countries across the world, we consider them to constitute devel- opmental patterns that are indicative of adolescent maturation. A notable exception to the patterns of positive development is the increase of depression. Table 1 presents an overview of the find- ings.

A series of our findings has not been studied in other countries, and therefore need to be replicated. However, these results go together very well with the observed developmental patterns. The findings of the latent Markov models and developmental trajectory models concur with those of the mean-level change models. The latent Markov models show that adolescents grow out of diffusion and moratorium and into closure and achievement, move out of undercontrol and overcontrol and into resilient personality, and out of direct aggression into the no problems type. Similarly, the developmental trajectory models reveal growth of balanced relat- edness in friendships and of cognitive empathy.

Additionally, the findings on profile stability of personality and rank-order stability of self-concept clarity point to growing stabi- lization of personality and self-concept clarity in adolescence. The

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increase of profile stability indicates that the formal organization of adolescent personality grows within individuals. The increase of rank-order stability points to the same phenomenon at the group level, in that the relative position of adolescents within the group of peers became more fixed. Finally, the increase of generalized anxiety concurs with the increase of depression.

Taken together, the findings show normative development that can be qualified as adolescent maturation. With a few exceptions (depression and generalized anxiety), adolescents show positive development in the second decade of life.

Rules of intraindividual maturation. In their overview arti- cle on adolescence, Hollenstein and Lougheed (2013) suggested longitudinal, person-centered studies as a very promising approach for research into adolescence. I concur with their suggestion, and show that latent Markov models not only reveal intraindividual maturation, but also allow us to formulate its rules. As reported above, Meeus et al. (2011) found a significant increase of Rs, along with a significant decrease of Os and Us across adolescence. I use the findings of Meeus et al. (2011) to describe three rules.

Normative endpoints and transient states. Four-year stabili- ties of R, O, and U were .92, .76, and .15, respectively. This qualifies R as the end state of personality development, U as a transient type, and O taking a position in between. The distinction between endpoints and transient states is linked to processes of equifinality and multifinality (Cicchetti & Rogosch, 2002). Equi- finality indicates that R serves as the common endpoint for both initial U and O. On the other hand, U, the most transient state, shows multifinality; across 4 years, 50% of initial Us changed into R, and 34% changed into O, respectively.

Restricted frequency of change. When personality type changed during adolescence, it occurred only once in the majority of the cases. Thus, a typical five-wave trajectory chain of person- ality change would look like this: OORRR.

Developmental neighborhood effects. Chances of 4-year change from U ¡ R were higher than of U ¡ O and O ¡R, .50, .34, and .21, respectively. Thus, U was a closer developmental

neighbor to R than to O, and similarly O was closer to R than to U.

Developmental rules 1 and 2 were also observed in the study by Meeus et al. (2010) on identity development. Achievement and closure were found to be normative endpoints (4-year stabilities were .62 and .80, respectively), whereas diffusion, moratorium, and searching moratorium qualified as transient states (4-year stabilities were .39, .39, and .18, respectively). The majority of individuals that changed identity status only did so once. Rules 1 and 3 were observed in the study by Meeus et al. (2016) into the development of direct aggression and generalized anxiety. The no problems type (Np), and to a lesser extent the anxious type (Anx), were found to be normative endpoints (4-year stabilities were .80 and .70, respectively), whereas the aggressive (Agg) and the co- morbid aggressive type (Cagg) were found to be transient states (4-year stabilities were .49 and .14, respectively). Agg and Cagg were closer developmental neighbors to Np than to Anx; chances of 4-year changes from Agg ¡ Np and Cagg ¡ Np were .36 and .24, whereas chances of 4-year changes from Agg ¡ Anx and Cagg ¡ Anx were .05 and .12, respectively.

Prediction Models

Prediction models estimate the extent to which an earlier Pro- cess A is predictive of a later Process B. In these models, the predictor variable is measured earlier in time than the predicted variable. Therefore, the predictor can be seen as a developmental marker of the predicted variable. We use the data of the paper by Keijsers, Branje, Van der Valk, and Meeus (2010) on adolescent disclosure and delinquency as an example. In a simple reanalysis of the two-wave study, we found that delinquency at Time 2 was predicted by adolescent disclosure at Time 1 (� � �.14, p � .05, after controlling for the Time 1 association between disclosure and delinquency; see Figure 1a). The result implies that adolescents who disclose more personal information to parents have lesser chances to be delinquent 1 year later. In other words, earlier disclosure is a marker of later delinquency. Although this is an interesting finding, it is not very informative on developmental processes as shown by the cross-lagged analyses of Keijsers et al. (2010). This analysis revealed bidirectional links between disclo- sure and delinquency: Time 1 (T1) disclosure predicted lower Time 2 (T2) delinquency, and T1 delinquency predicted lower T2 disclosure (see Figure 1b). Thus, Keijsers et al. showed that both processes predict each other over time, and that a possible con- clusion drawn from our reanalysis— disclosure is a developmental driver of delinquency—would be incorrect. This limitation applies to prediction models, in general. They are useful to identify earlier developmental markers of related developmental processes, but are not informative on developmental processes, themselves.

There is one exception to this general conclusion. Prediction models that tap into processes with a clear difference in timing during development can be informative on developmental process. Our studies systematically showed this in the domain of personal relationships.

Personal Relationships

Meeus, Branje, Van der Valk, and De Wied (2007) found that more parental support and commitment to best friends in adoles-

Table 1 Developmental Patterns Observed in Descriptive Models Across Countries

Developmental pattern Mean-level

change Rank-order

stability

Heterogeneity: Prevalence change of

types/statuses

Personality maturation X X Identity maturation X X X Growth of harmonious and

egalitarian parent- adolescent relationships X

Growth of support and understanding in adolescent-best friend relationships X

Growth of cognitive empathy X Increase of depression X Decrease of delinquency from

middle adolescence on X Decrease of direct aggression X

Note. Unless otherwise indicated, all patterns were found in early, mid- dle, and late adolescence.

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cence and emerging adulthood led to more commitment to roman- tic partners 6 years later in both late adolescence and emerging adulthood. De Goede, Branje, Van Duin, Van der Valk, and Meeus (2012) showed that levels and growth of personal commitments to parents and friends from early to late adolescence led to higher commitments to romantic partners in late adolescence and emerg- ing adulthood. Similarly, Yu, Branje, Keijsers, and Meeus (2014b) found that quality of relationships with best friends (support, negative interaction, and dominance) in early-to-middle adoles- cence led to quality of romantic relationships in emerging adult- hood. Effect sizes of 5-year links between quality of friendships and romantic relationships were very substantial (.23 � � � .56).

Continuity between quality of parent–adolescent relationships and quality of peer relationships, on the one hand, and quality of romantic relationships, on the other hand, has been studied inten- sively in Australia (Burns & Dunlop, 1998), New Zealand (Mag- dol, Moffitt, Caspi, & Silva, 1998), Sweden (Overbeek, Stattin, Vermulst, Ha, & Engels, 2007), United Kingdom (Flouri & Bu- chanan, 2002), and the United States (Amato & Booth, 2001; Andrews, Foster, Capaldi, & Hops, 2000; Conger, Cui, Bryant, & Elder, 2000; Cook, Buehler, & Blair, 2013; Cui, Durtschi, Don- nellan, Lorenz, & Conger, 2010; Cui & Fincham, 2010; Donnellan, Larsen-Rife, & Conger, 2005; Ehrensaft et al., 2003; Ehrensaft, Knous-Westfall, & Cohen, 2011; Fite et al., 2008; Hare, Miga, & Allen, 2009; Linder & Collins, 2005; Masarik et al., 2012, 2014; Raby et al., 2015; Rauer, Pettit, Lansford, Bates, & Dodge, 2013; Roisman, Collins, Sroufe, & Egeland, 2005; Simons, Simons, Landor, Bryant, & Beach, 2014; Simpson, Collins, Tran, & Hay- don, 2007; Smetana & Gettman, 2006; Stocker & Richmond, 2007; Surjadi, Lorenz, Conger, & Wickrama, 2013; Whitton et al., 2008). All of these studies had a prospective longitudinal design, included measures of parent– child relationships, and studied con- tinuity of relationship quality from childhood to adolescence and from adolescence to (emerging) adulthood across varying time intervals, from three up to 25 years. A limited number of studies used additional peer relationship measures to predict quality of romantic relationships (Cook et al., 2013; Linder & Collins, 2005; Raby et al., 2015; Rauer et al., 2013; Simpson et al., 2007; Stocker & Richmond, 2007). Measures included observations and, in most studies, self-reports of positive (affective behavior, attachment, intimacy, communication, nurturance, relationship satisfaction, re-

lationship security, sensitivity, social competence, support) or neg- ative (aggression, conflict, discord, hostility, parental discipline, physical and psychological abuse, victimization, violence) quali- ties of parent–adolescent, peer, and romantic relationships. With- out a single exception, and consistent with our research, all studies found that the quality of parent–adolescent relationships prospec- tively predicted the quality of romantic relationships. Studies in- cluding measures of peer relationships found consistent prospec- tive links between the quality of peer and romantic relationships.

Developmental Patterns

Heterogeneous continuity of personal relationships. A con- sistent finding across our studies and the studies conducted in countries across the world is that earlier, higher-quality relation- ships with parents and peers leads to higher quality of later romantic relationships. Importantly, romantic relationships came into existence after relationships with parents and best friends in these studies. This suggests heterogeneous continuity of develop- ment in the domain of personal relationships; quality of earlier relationships translates into quality of other relationships later in time. Our findings are consistent with one of the key notions of attachment theory, namely that relationships with parents contrib- ute to adolescents’ formation of positive or negative working models of others, and generalize to salient personal relationships later in life (Bowlby, 1973; Hazan & Shaver, 1987).

Developmental Sequence Models

Human development can be conceptualized as covariation of multiple developmental processes over time. Cross-lagged panel analysis with structural equation modeling is one of the most employed statistical approaches to model covarying developmen- tal processes. An often reported finding of this approach has been depicted in Figure 2. The figure shows a consistent link between adolescent secrecy toward father and paternal perception of ado- lescent secrecy across three waves of data (Hawk et al., 2013). Consistency of associations between variables across time is prob- ably the most replicated type of findings in longitudinal research, and the importance of these replications cannot be understated. In all studies, we found consistency of overtime associations between

Em Adolescent Disclosure

T1

Em Adolescent

Delinquency T1

Em Adolescent Disclosure

T2

Em Adolescent

Delinquency T2

-.11

-.14

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Solicita n T1

Em Parental

Solicita n T2

Em Adolescent Disclosure

T1

Em Adolescent

Delinquency T1 Em

Adolescent Delinquency

T2

-.14

Parental

Solicita n T1

A B

Figure 1. Adolescent disclosure and delinquency in a prediction model (A) and an ecursive cross-lagged model (B). Only effect sizes of disclosure-delinquency parameters over time are shown. Adapted from the adolescent model of Keijsers et al., 2010.

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multiple developmental domains with long-term self-report, multi- informant, and biosocial data. For instance, consistent negative links have been found between quality of parent–adolescent rela- tionships and adolescent depression (Hale, VanderValk, Akse, & Meeus, 2008; Stice, Ragan, & Randall, 2004), cognitive and af- fective empathy (Miklikowska, Duriez, & Soenens, 2011; Van Lissa et al., 2014), parental knowledge and delinquency (Keijsers et al., 2010; Laird, Pettit, Bates, & Dodge, 2003), cortisol awak- ening response and depression (Nelemans, Hale, Branje, Van Lier, et al., 2014), and adolescent emotion regulation difficulties and problem behavior (Otterpohl & Wild, 2015; Skripkauskaite et al., 2015). Apart from consistency of associations over time, the various studies revealed another systematic finding. Namely, pos- itive development in one domain goes together with positive development in other domains, and the same holds for negative development across domains.

Although consistency of associations across time is a key finding, developmental research aims to do more, namely to identify developmental sequence in the covariation of develop- mental processes. In earlier times, this issue has been framed in the causal language of experimental psychology. For instance, a developmental sequence from higher parental discipline to lower levels of adolescent antisocial behavior has been inter- preted as discipline having a causal effect upon antisocial behavior (see Vuchinich, Bank, & Patterson, 1992, p. 514). Research in naturally occurring development, however, is lim- ited in identifying unequivocal causes for developmental pro- cesses, because it is not possible to rule out alternative variables that could explain the “causal” link (for a recent discussion, see Orobio de Castro, Thomaes, & Reijntjes, 2015). Therefore, I propose to use the term developmental sequence to identify developmental processes that drive other processes. Thus, in- stead of cause and effect, the concept of developmental se- quence identifies the situation where Process A drives Process B over time, whereas Process B does not drive Process A, or does so to a lesser extent. An example from a cross-lagged panel model is given in Figure 3, where parental attitudes (A) drive adolescent attitudes (path of .42), but the adolescent-to- parent path was not significant (B). This pattern is theoretically meaningful, because it indicates that Process A precedes and drives Process B during development. In our longitudinal stud-

ies, we identified four sets of replicated findings of develop- mental sequence.

Transmission From Parents to Adolescents

This group of studies started from the theoretical assumption that it is quite likely that in cross-lagged panel analysis processes with a high overtime stability would precede processes with lower over time stability (see Figure 3, where Process A, parental TAL [tolerance for alternative family lifestyles], has a 3-year stability of .74, whereas Process B, adolescent TAL has a 3-year stability of .24). When a developmental process has high stability over time, it becomes close to time-invariant. Time invariance of a process means that it is likely that it will have an impact on and drive related processes, whereas it cannot be driven by these processes due to its stable nature. Again, in the terminology of experimental psychology, a time-invariant process approximates an independent variable that predicts other phenomena, with the prediction here taking the form of a developmental driver of other phenomena. Figure 3 presents this condition with the highly stable process, parental TAL, driving the less stable process, adolescent TAL. The

Em Secrecy

(AF) T1

Em Secrecy

(AF) T2

Em Secrecy

(AF) T3

Em

Secrecy (FA) T1

Em

Secrecy (FA) T2

Em

Secrecy (FA) T3

.32 .14 .11

.69

.51 .61

.57

Figure 2. Consistent links between adolescent secrecy toward father (AF) and paternal awareness of adolescent secrecy (FA). Adapted from Hawk et al. (2013).

Em TAL

Parent T1

Em

TAL Adolescent

T1

.21

Em TAL

Parent T2

Em

TAL Adolescent

T2

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.24

.74

.42

.ns

Figure 3. Differential 3-year stability of parental and adolescent attitudes (TAL � tolerance for alternative family lifestyles), and parental to ado- lescent transmission in a sample aged from 12 to 14 years. Adapted from Vollebergh et al., 2001.

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parent-to-adolescent 3-year cross-path was .42, whereas the adolescent-to-parent path was not significant. Framed differently, in this group of studies, we were looking for the situation where naturally occurring development creates a quasi-experimental sit- uation with identifiable independent and dependent variables. We assumed that this would be the case in transmission of behavior from parents to adolescents.

Our studies revealed systematic support for the assumption in four domains: transmission of attitudes, interpersonal behavior, empathy, and self-concept clarity. All studies used at least two waves of data across time periods of 2 to 6 years. Ter Bogt, Raaijmakers, and van Wel (2005) and Vollebergh, Iedema, and Raaijmakers (2001) found that parental attitudes (cultural conser- vatism and tolerance for alternative lifestyles and acceptance of socioeconomic equality, respectively) preceded and drove attitudes of adolescents and emerging adults. Van Doorn et al. (2007) found that conflict resolution styles between parents (positive problem solving and conflict engagement) drove adolescent conflict reso- lution styles toward parents in early and middle adolescence. Van Doorn et al. (2011) additionally found that conflict resolution styles between parents and adolescents (again, positive problem solving and conflict engagement) drove conflict resolution styles between adolescents and friends from early to late adolescence. Van Lissa et al. (2014) found that maternal cognitive empathy drove cognitive empathy in girls from early to late adolescence. Finally, Crocetti, Rubini, Branje, Koot, & Meeus (2016) found that both maternal and paternal self-concept clarity drove adolescent self-concept clarity from early to late adolescence. Two of the cited studies, Vollebergh et al. (2001) and Van Doorn et al. (2011), also looked at age differences in parental impact and found that the unidirectional influence of parents was limited to early and middle adolescence. Parent-adolescent processes became bidirectional in emerging adulthood and late adolescence, however, as parental and adolescent values and conflict resolution styles were found to drive each other over time. Totally in line with the above reason- ing, this finding was due to increasing overtime stability of ado- lescent values and conflict resolution styles from early adolescence to late adolescence and emerging adulthood. It appears that ado- lescent impact on parents in late and early adolescence was due to growing stabilization of adolescent values and conflict resolution styles.

Longitudinal transmission from parents to adolescents has been studied in additional research in the Netherlands (Roest, Dubas, & Gerris, 2010; Taris, 2000) and the United States (Fosco, & Grych, 2010; Gerard, Krishnakumar, & Buehler, 2006; Glass, Bengtson, & Dunham, 1986; Min, Silverstein, & Lendon, 2012; Perez-Brena, Updegraff, & Umaña-Taylor, 2015; Toomey, Updegraff, Umaña- Taylor, & Jahromi, 2015). The studies included at least two waves of data across a period of one to 31 years, covered adolescence and emerging adulthood, and used cross-lagged panel analysis of lon- gitudinal data. One exception is Glass et al. (1986), who used a reciprocal influence model. Additionally, all studies used measures of attitudes (familialism, hedonism, ideology, gender role atti- tudes, sexual permissiveness, work values), with the exception of Fosco and Grych (2010) and Gerard et al. (2006), who used measures of interpersonal behavior (triangulation into parental conflict and conflict, respectively). The studies by Perez-Brena et al. (2015) and Toomey et al. (2015) used Mexican samples. With a single exception for a single measure (hedonism), all studies

found that parental attitudes and behaviors preceded and drove adolescent attitudes and behaviors. Two of the cited studies (Roest et al., 2010; Perez-Brena et al., 2015) looked at age differences in parental impact and found that the unidirectional influence of parents was limited to early and middle adolescence. These find- ings concur with those of Van Doorn et al. (2007) and Vollebergh et al. (2001). In sum, across countries, we found parental attitudes and behaviors to drive and precede adolescent attitudes and be- haviors in early to-middle adolescence.

Empathy Development

Next to transmission of cognitive empathy from mothers to daughters, Van Lissa et al. (2014) also found that affective empa- thy drove cognitive empathy in early, middle, and late adoles- cence. Again, this finding was due to substantially higher overtime stability of affective empathy than cognitive empathy. Because this finding was not consistent with earlier theorizing on the sequence of affective and cognitive empathy (see for instance Eisenberg, Cumberland, Guthrie, Murphy, & Shepard, 2005; Lamm, Batson, & Decety, 2007) we tested it again in a laboratory study using Electromyography (EMG; Van der Graaff et al., 2016). For dif- ferent emotions, Van der Graaff et al. found support for a model where motor empathy predicted affective empathy and through affective empathy was predictive of cognitive empathy. This sug- gests that the process of empathy starts with the physiological reaction to emotions of another person, followed by affective empathic responding, and cognitive empathy thereafter. I did not find any other longitudinal study on the developmental sequence of affective and cognitive empathy.

Adolescent Psychopathology and Adolescent Relationships

Parent-adolescent and peer relationships. Our studies sys- tematically showed that adolescent psychopathology drives the quality of parent–adolescent relationships. The studies used at least three waves of data across a time period of 2 to 5 years. Higher overtime stability was not found to be the key factor here, because stability of psychopathology was not systematically different from stability of parent–adolescent relationships. Generalized anxiety was found to be a systematic developmental driver, both in ado- lescent self-reports and multiinformant data. Generalized anxiety drove a decrease of adolescent attachment to mothers in early and late adolescence (Van Eijck, Branje, Hale, & Meeus, 2012), an increase of parental rejection and a decrease of parental trust and communication in early and middle adolescence (Hale, Klimstra, Branje, Wijsbroek, & Meeus, 2013), and an increase of maternal criticism as perceived by the adolescent in early and late adoles- cence (Nelemans, Hale, Branje, Hawk, & Meeus, 2014). Similar effects were found for depression. Hale et al. (2008) found depres- sion to systematically drive an increase of perceived parental rejection in early to-middle adolescence, and Nelemans et al. (2014) found depression to drive an increase of adolescent per- ceived criticism, which in turn led to an increase of maternal criticism toward the adolescent in early-to-late adolescence. Fi- nally, adolescent-reported internalizing and externalizing problems were found to lead to an increase of both parent-reported criticism toward the adolescent and parental intrusion, and a decrease of

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parental support and constructive criticism in early-to-late adoles- cence (Hale et al., 2011; Hale et al., 2016). Similar effects of adolescent psychopathology were observed in peer relationships, where social anxiety led to a decrease of peer involvement over time (Nelemans et al., 2016) in early-to-late adolescence.

The overtime linkage between adolescent psychopathology and parent–adolescent relationships has been addressed in additional studies in Canada (Brière, Archambault, & Janosz, 2013), the Netherlands (Buist, Deković, Meeus, & van Aken, 2004), Sweden (Kerr, Stattin, & Özdemir, 2012), and the United States (Chung, Chen, Greenberger, & Heckhausen, 2009; Hafen & Laursen, 2009; Huh, Tristan, Wade, & Stice, 2006; Jang & Smith, 1997; Laird et al., 2003; Loukas, 2009; Steeger & Gondoli, 2013; Stice & Bar- rera, 1995; Stice et al., 2004). The studies included two to six waves of data across a period of 2 to 5 years, and covered early to-late adolescence. Two studies used multivariate growth model- ing (Hafen & Laursen, 2009; Laird et al., 2003), whereas all other studies applied cross-lagged panel models. The studies used var- ious measures of adolescent psychopathology (aggression, delin- quency, depressed mood, internalizing and externalizing problems, intoxication, loitering, poor self-esteem, school maladjustment, substance use) and parent–adolescent relationships (affective ties, attachment, authoritative and neglectful parenting, communica- tion, information management, parent–adolescent conflict, paren- tal supervision, parental warmth, punitive parental discipline, sup- port). Note that most of the studies tested multiple cross-paths (i.e., ranging from two to eight of such paths) between measures of adolescent psychopathology and parent–adolescent relation- ships (Kerr et al., 2012). With some exceptions for a couple of measures (Steeger et al. and Stice et al. did not find adolescent depression to lead to a later increase of parent–adolescent conflict or decrease of parental support, respectively), the stud- ies consistently found that more adolescent problems drove a decrease in the quality of parent–adolescent relationships. The reverse path, quality of parent–adolescent relationships or parenting driving adolescent psychopathology, was observed only for some variables in some studies: Brière et al. (2013) found conflict to drive depression, Buist et al. (2004) found attachment to precede a decrease of inter- nalizing problems, and Jang and Smith (1997) and Laird et al. (2003) found parental supervision to drive a decrease of delinquency. Thus, with some exceptions, our studies and studies from various other countries have found adolescent psychopathology to drive a decrease in quality of parent–adolescent relationships.

A series of studies in Australia (Zimmer-Gembeck, Hunter, Waters, & Pronk, 2009), the Netherlands (Ha, Overbeek, Cil- lessen, & Engels, 2012), Sweden (Van Zalk, Kerr, Branje, Stattin, & Meeus, 2010; Van Zalk, Van Zalk, Kerr, & Stattin, 2011), and the United States (Borelli & Prinstein, 2006; Chung et al., 2009; Kochel, Ladd, & Rudolph, 2012; Oppenheimer & Hankin, 2011; Stice et al., 2004) addressed the overtime links between adolescent psychopathology and peer relationships. The studies included two or three waves of data across a period of 2 to 4 years, and covered early to-late adolescence. Ha et al. (2012) used a prospective design, Van Zalk et al. used longitudinal social network analyses, and the other studies applied cross-lagged panel analysis. The studies used various measures of adolescent psychopathology (de- pression, social anxiety) and peer relationships (duration of roman- tic relationship, negative feedback seeking, peer acceptance, peer relationship quality, peer support, peer warmth). Across studies,

adolescent psychopathology was found to drive deterioration of peer relationships, to lower chances to form friendships, and to predict earlier termination of friendships and romantic relation- ships (in girls only).

Adolescent psychopathology and independence from parents. In addition, our studies revealed that adolescent psy- chopathology not only drove the erosion of parent–adolescent relationships, but also led to parental inability to accept adolescent independence. The studies used at least three waves of data across a time period of 4 or 5 years. Hale et al. (2013) found generalized anxiety to lead to an increase of parental overinvolvement and psychological control in early and middle adolescence. Wijsbroek, Hale, Raaijmakers, and Meeus (2011) found generalized and sep- aration anxiety to lead to an increase of both parental behavioral and psychological control in early to-late adolescence. Werner, Van der Graaff, Meeus, and Branje (2016) found depression to lead to an increase of maternal psychological control in early to-late adolescence. Finally, Van der Giessen, Branje, and Meeus (2014) found depression to lead to a decrease of (perceived) autonomy support in early-to-late adolescence. With the single exception of Werner et al. (2016), the studies did not report parental psychological control to drive adolescent psychopathol- ogy. Additional studies from Belgium (Soenens, Luyckx, Vans- teenkiste, Duriez, & Goossens, 2008), Germany (Otterpohl & Wild, 2015), and the United States (Loukas, 2009; Steeger & Gondoli, 2013) addressed this research question. The studies in- cluded two or three waves of data across a period of 1 to 2 years, and covered early to-late adolescence. Measures of adolescent psychopathology included aggression, anger dysregulation, de- pression, substance use, and social anxiety, and measures of con- trol included maternal and paternal psychological control. All studies found adolescent psychopathology to drive an increase in parental psychological control. Only the study by Soenens et al. (2008) found also the reverse effect. Thus, across our studies and studies from various other countries, we found adolescent psycho- pathology to lead to more parental psychological control.

Developmental Patterns

From these four sets of studies, four developmental patterns can be identified. These patterns were observed in our studies and studies conducted in various countries across the world. The first pattern, Good goes together with good (pattern 3) is not a pattern of developmental sequence in itself, but rather an inevitable byproduct of the search for developmental sequence: consistent covariation in developmental processes over time. The patterns on parental dominance (pattern 4), adolescent psychopathology and erosion of relationships (pattern 5), and psychopathology preventing adolescent independence (pattern 6) concern developmental sequence. Note that these patterns represent findings of cross-lagged models, similar to the model of Figure 3, or of conceptually similar models.

Good goes together with good, and bad with bad, in adoles- cent development. Across developmental domains, we observed consistency in positive and negative development. This is basically true for all of the developmental domains we studied (see exam- ples in the preceding text).

Parental dominance in transmission. In early and middle adolescence, parents transmit values and conflict (resolution

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styles) to their children, whereas adolescents do not have an impact on their parents. This is due to the simple principle that stable patterns affect the nonstable patterns, and various behavioral pat- terns have substantial stability in adults and are being formed in adolescence. In late adolescence, this unidirectional influence seems to end and to be replaced by a process where parents and adolescents have an impact on each other. Parental transmission of cognitive empathy and self-concept clarity was found in only our studies, and needs replication in other countries.

Adolescent psychopathology leads to erosion of relation- ships. Aggression, delinquency, depression generalized anxiety, internalizing and externalizing problems, intoxication, loitering, poor self-esteem, school maladjustment, separation anxiety and substance use lead to eroded parent–adolescent relationships over time. Similarly, depression and social anxiety lead to deterioration of peer relationships, termination of friendships and decrease of peer contacts.

Adolescent psychopathology prevents adolescent indepen- dence from parents. Adolescent aggression, anger dysregula- tion, depression, generalized and separation anxiety and sub- stance use made parents reluctant to grant their children autonomy and independence.

Finally, both in longitudinal and laboratory research, we found that affective empathic responding precedes the understanding of others, that is, cognitive empathy. Adolescents’ understandings of other people spring from affective empathizing with others. Sim- ilar work has not been conducted elsewhere, and therefore this finding needs to be replicated in other countries.

Explaining Developmental Sequence: Longitudinal Mediation Models

A limitation of developmental sequence models is that they do not identify mechanisms that underlie developmental se- quence. Longitudinal mediation models, sometimes referred to

as cascade models (Masten & Cicchetti, 2010), are the obvious answer to this critique, because they specify the mechanisms of developmental sequence. I discuss two types of longitudinal mediation models, namely models that use long-term media- tional and short-term mediational processes to explain devel- opmental sequence.

Long-Term Mediation

Figure 4 depicts a commonly used long-term mediational model. The example is taken from a study by Hawk et al. (2013) among early and middle adolescents, showing that parental invasion leads to an increase of adolescent secrecy toward mothers, which in turn leads to a decrease of maternal knowledge of adolescent behavior. Hawk et al. replicated the model for the father-adolescent relation- ship, and found additional support in an expanded version of the adolescent-mother model. The expanded model showed that pa- rental invasion led to adolescent secrecy, which led to maternal perception of adolescent secrecy, and through both these processes to mothers’ decreased knowledge of adolescent behavior. The double mediational model was not replicated for the father- adolescent relationship. Conceptually, these findings make perfect sense, because they show the mechanisms of detrimental effects of parental invasion. Specifically, parental invasion leads to adoles- cent secrecy. Adolescent secrecy, in turn, has the effect of decreas- ing parental knowledge about adolescent behavior and where- abouts.

Conceptually close to the findings from Hawk et al. (2013), the results of the study by Keijsers et al. (2012) showed the unpro- ductive effects of maternal and paternal prohibition of friendships with (mildly) deviant peers in early and middle adolescence. Paternal prohibition of friendships led to an increase of contact with deviant peers, which in turn led to an increase of adolescent delinquency. These findings suggest that adolescents experience parental prohibition of friendships as parental negation of auton-

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Figure 4. Long-term mediational model showing that parental invasion leads to decrease of parental knowl- edge via adolescent secrecy. Estimated parameters of mediational path are shown only. Significant within wave estimates are shown in gray. Adapted from Hawk et al. (2013).

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omy, which has the counterproductive effect of increasing adoles- cent contact with deviant peers and adolescent delinquency. There- fore, both the Hawk et al. and the Keijsers et al. studies show the mechanisms of the detrimental effects of noneffective parenting. Parents will not be effective when they try to regulate personal issues of adolescents (Smetana & Asquith, 1994).

Detrimental effects of noneffective parenting were also ob- served in the long-term mediational study conducted in the United States by Fosco, Lippold, and Feinberg (2014). They found that interparental boundary problems (for instance, pa- rental arguing in front of adolescents) led to parent–adolescent hostility, which in turn drove increasing adolescent-parent hos- tility over time in early adolescence. Although they did not use long-term mediational models, Keijsers and Laird (2014) and Tilton-Weaver, Burk, Kerr, and Stattin (2013) found conceptu- ally similar results in longitudinal studies conducted in the United States and Sweden, respectively. Keijsers and Laird

(2014) found that, only among early adolescents endorsing legitimacy of parental authority, maternal engagement and su- pervision led to more open communication by the adolescent. The effect was absent among adolescents who did not endorse legitimacy of parental authority. Tilton-Weaver et al. (2013) found that monitoring led to more delinquency for early ado- lescents experiencing parental (behavioral) overcontrol. For late adolescents reporting low levels of delinquency, parental disapproval led to an increase of the influence of delinquent peers.

Short-Term Mediation

Arguably, short-term processes qualify as superior mediating mechanisms in comparison to longer term processes. The sim- ple reason for this is that short-term processes come closer to real-time psychological mechanisms (Orobio de Castro et al.,

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Figure 5. Long-term models with short-term mediation. Model A shows short dynamics carrying long-term stability. The upper path represents mediation. Model B shows short-term mechanisms driving long-term processes. Significant within-wave and initial associations (T1 ¡ short-term mechanisms 1) are shown in gray. Paths a and b show that short-term mechanisms drive long-term processes. The figure represents a simplified version of actually fitted models.

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2015). In our research, we used two sets of models with short-term mediational processes. In the first set of models (Figure 5a), we included short-term mechanisms to explain the stability of adolescent psychopathology. In the second set of models (Figure 5b), we aimed to test short-term mediation between various developmental processes, namely identity and personal relationships, on the one hand, and adolescent psycho- pathology, on the other.

Short-term mechanisms of adolescent psychopathology. Neumann, Van Lier, Frijns, Meeus, and Koot (2011, p. 660) examined the role of day-to-day level and between-day variability of four discrete emotions (happiness, anger, anxiety, and sadness) in the maintenance of anxiety, depression, and aggression in early adolescence. Anxiety, depression, and aggression were examined at two annual measurements. In between the annual measurements, mood level and variability were measured across 3 weeks, 5 days per week (total of 15 days), see Figure 5a. Variability of happiness, anger, and sadness were found to mediate the link between anxiety T1 and T2. In other words, adolescents with marked swings in happiness, anger, and sadness were found to maintain relatively high anxiety over time. Levels of happiness, anger, anxiety, and sadness were found to be the mediating links in the maintenance of depression. Adolescents with stable, low levels of happiness and high levels of anger, anxiety, and sadness were found to maintain high depression over time. Similar results were found for levels of anger and sadness in the maintenance of aggression.

Nelemans (2015) studied the role of short-term stress reactiv- ity in the long-term persistence of social anxiety in middle adolescence. Social anxiety was assessed in two consecutive annual waves. Between the annual waves, short-term stress reactivity was measured during a social stressor, the Leiden Public Speaking Test (L-PST; Westenberg et al., 2009). In- creases of subjective nervousness, as well as subjective and actual heart rate in the preparation of the L-PST, mediated the link between social anxiety T1 and social anxiety T2. Adoles- cents with higher T1 social anxiety showed higher increases in subjective nervousness and subjective and actual heart rate in anticipating L-PST, which in turn predicted higher social anx- iety at T2. This means that elevated real-time psychological and physiological responses to a social stressor were found to be mechanisms of social anxiety maintenance.

I did not find any other longitudinal study on short-term mechanisms of adolescent psychopathology. However, I located a number of longitudinal studies, conducted in Australia (Hazel, Hammen, Brennan, & Najman, 2008) and the United States (Cole, Nolen-Hoeksema, Girgus, & Paul, 2006; Herts, McLaughlin, & Hatzenbuehler, 2012; McLaughlin & Hatzen- buehler, 2009; Rudolph, Flynn, Abaied, Groot, & Thompson, 2009), that used designs that came conceptually close to those of our studies. The studies included three to six waves of data across a period of 2 to 15 years, and covered childhood to late adolescence. All studies found that indicators of stress (nega- tive life events, interpersonal stressors, stress burden) or emo- tion dysregulation served as mediating mechanism of the main- tenance of aggression and depression, or as the mediating link between childhood adversity and adolescent depression. All studies used a three-wave design with measurement of the mediating process at the second wave. Thus, across studies, I found short- and long-term emotion dysregulation and stressors

to contribute to the maintenance of adolescent psychopathology or problems.

Short-term mechanisms of multiple developmental processes. Schwartz et al. (2011) studied the mediating role of fluctuations in identity commitments, reconsideration of identity commitments, and self-concept clarity in the maintenance of anx- iety and depression in early adolescents. The design of the study was similar to that of Neumann et al. (2011). Anxiety and depres- sion were examined at two annual measurements, and fluctuations were measured for 3 weeks, 5 days per week, between the annual measurements. However, Schwartz et al. found fluctuations in identity reconsideration to precede long-term anxiety and depres- sion instead of serving a mediating role in their maintenance. Fluctuations in identity reconsideration were not predicted by T1 anxiety and depression, but were predictive of T2 anxiety and depression. Thus, fluctuations of identity reconsideration were found to be drivers of longer-term anxiety and depression, inde- pendent of earlier levels of anxiety and depression.

Maciejewski et al. (2014) studied the links between mood vari- ability, negative parent–adolescent interactions, and anxiety and depression in early and middle adolescence. They used four annual waves of negative interactions, anxiety, and depression, and three weeks’ worth of 5-day measures of mood variability across four emotions (happiness, anger, anxiety, and sadness). Emotional vari- ability measure 1 was collected between annual assessments 1 and 2, and emotional variability measures 2 and 3 between annual assessments 2 and 3, and 3 and 4, respectively. Figure 5b presents a simplified picture of the design. As in the Schwartz et al. (2011) study, Maciejewski et al. found the short-term mechanisms to drive the long-term processes (see paths a and b in Figure 5b). Emotional variability was not predicted by earlier negative inter- actions, anxiety, and depression, but was found to be an indepen- dent driver of these long-term processes, with higher variability leading to more negative interactions, depression, and anxiety. I did not find other longitudinal studies on short-term mechanisms driving long-term negative interactions, depression, or anxiety.

Developmental Patterns

In the long-term and short-term mediational studies, two devel- opmental patterns were observed in our studies and studies con- ducted in various countries across the world.

The limits of parenting adolescents. The long-term media- tional studies by Hawk et al. (2013); Keijsers et al. (2012), and Fosco et al. (2014), and the conceptually similar studies by Kei- jsers and Laird (2014) and Tilton-Weaver et al. (2013), identified the mechanism of these limits. All studies point to the fact that part of adolescent maturation is that adolescents create their own pri- vate sphere and have control over it. Parental invasion of adoles- cent privacy, or parental neglect of adolescent boundaries, is therefore detrimental to parents’ original goals, because it will ultimately lead to less parental knowledge about their children’s lives and to greater adolescent-parent conflict. Similarly, maternal engagement and supervision will not lead to improved parent– adolescent communication for adolescents who do not endorse legitimacy of parental authority. Finally, parents have limited power over their children’s friendships. Too strict behavioral con- trol or parental disapproval has the counterproductive effect of promoting stronger affiliation with deviant friends and delin-

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quency. These findings offer longitudinal support for social do- main theory and its conceptualization by Smetana and colleagues (Smetana & Asquith, 1994; Smetana, Metzger, Gettman, & Campione-Barr, 2006), in that parental interference in issues that adolescents define as personal will have negative effects over time. Similarly, they support the situational hypothesis of parent and peer influence of Brittain (1967), which says that parental influ- ence is limited in the domain of leisure time.

The dark side of variability and uncertainty. Our short- term mediational studies clearly showed that variability of mood and uncertainty about the social impression one makes are mech- anisms of adolescent psychopathology. Variability of single emo- tions is the mechanism of persistence in anxiety and depression (Maciejewski et al., 2014; Neumann et al., 2011). Uncertainty about the impression one makes when addressing an audience (L-PST) is reflected in elevated psychological and physiological stress during the preparation of the task, and leads to persistence in social anxiety. Similar results were obtained in international long- term mediational studies. Various kinds of stressors and emotion dysregulation were found to be the mediating mechanisms main- taining aggression and depression over time.

Our studies also suggest that variability across emotions (Ma- ciejewski et al., 2014) leads to negative interactions with parents and relative increases of depression and anxiety later in adoles- cence, and that short-term uncertainty of one’s identity drives anxiety and depression later in adolescence. These findings need replication in international research.

Gender Differences

In about one third of the included studies, no gender differences were reported. This is partly due to the fact that a number of studies did not include both genders, and partly to the fact that gender was not used as moderating variable in the various analytic designs. Systematic gender differences across countries were ob- served in descriptive models of mean-level change. Studies into empathy development (Brouns et al., 2013; Davis & Franzoi, 1991; Eisenberg et al., 2005; Miklikowska et al., 2011; Van der Graaff et al., 2014), depression (Abela & Hankin, 2011; Bélanger & Marcotte, 2013; Cole et al., 2002; Garber et al., 2002; Ge et al., 2001; Gutman & Eccles, 2007; Hankin et al., 1998; Hankin et al., 2015; Keenan et al., 2014; Kofler et al., 2011; Kouros & Garber, 2014; Measelle et al., 2006; Morris et al., 2010; Van Oort et al., 2009), and direct aggression (Caprara et al., 2014; Cleverley et al., 2012; Xie et al., 2011) found systematic gender differences in virtually all of the reports. Specifically, females had higher levels of cog- nitive and affective empathy than males across adolescence, higher levels of depression (with gender differences even increasing fur- ther across adolescence), and lower levels of direct aggression across adolescence. In contradistinction, I found gender differ- ences to be quite unlikely in three developmental patterns: heter- ogeneous continuity of personal relationships (Pattern 2), adoles- cent psychopathology leading to erosion of parent–adolescent relationships (Pattern 5), and adolescent psychopathology prevent- ing adolescent independence from parents (Pattern 6). Only Eh- rensaft et al. (2011) and Flouri and Buchanan (2002) reported gender differences in heterogeneous continuity, whereas Amato and Booth (2001); Cook et al. (2013); Cui & Fincham (2010); De Goede et al. (2012); Fite et al. (2008); Hare et al. (2009); Raby et

al. (2015); Rauer et al. (2013); Smetana and Gettman (2006), and Surjadi et al. (2013) did not. Similar findings emerged for adoles- cent psychopathology and relationship erosion, with only Roche et al. (2011) reporting gender differences, whereas Brière et al. (2013); Buist et al. (2004); Chung et al. (2009); Hale et al. (2008, 2011, 2013), Kerr et al. (2012); Laird et al. (2003); Loukas (2009); Soenens et al. (2008, Study 2), Steeger and Gondoli (2013), and Van Eijck, Branje, Hale, and Meeus (2012) found no differences. Gender differences were also virtually absent for Pattern 6, with only Werner et al. (2016) reporting differences, whereas Chung et al. (2009); Hale et al. (2013); Huh et al. (2006); Kerr et al. (2012); Loukas (2009); Steeger and Gondoli (2013) and Van der Giessen et al. (2014) did not. No consistent gender differences were found in the other developmental patterns, or there were not enough studies (�5) from which to draw conclusions. In addition, I found it impossible to study effects of socioeconomic status in the various developmental patterns, as the vast majority of the studies did not include information in this topic.

Discussion and Conclusions

Using four types of longitudinal models, I identified eight reg- ular patterns of adolescent psychosocial development. Remark- ably, these developmental patterns were found across several countries. A key finding of the present review is that adolescence is a critical period of psychosocial development. Using various types of descriptive models, I observed massive adolescent matu- ration across developmental domains. The second key finding comes from the covariation models. Table 2 presents an overview of the findings of the covariation models. Consistent with devel- opmental contextualism (Lerner, 1991, 1996), these models reveal systematic transactions between persons and social contexts across development. At the heart of these transactions is the interplay between adolescent maturation/inability to mature and relation- ships with parents and peers. The covariation models allow us to examine variation of developmental sequence in these transac- tions. In one instance (Pattern 4), parent effects were found: parents drive psychosocial development in early and middle ado- lescence through the transmission of values and behavior. In contradistinction, systematic child effects were observed in Pat- terns 5, 6 and 7: adolescent maturation/inability to mature drives parental and peer behaviors.

In this discussion, I address both key findings. First, I discuss adolescent maturation and link it to three principles of life span developmental psychology (Baltes, 1987): normative develop- ment, multidirectionality, and relative plasticity of development. Second, I show how the eight regular patterns of adolescent development are linked. I discuss three sets of linked patterns. Two of these sets link adolescent maturation or inability to mature to the other developmental patterns. Third, I turn to longitudinal models, and make suggestions for which models hold the most promise to foster our understanding of adolescent psychosocial development.

Maturation in Adolescent Psychosocial Development

Adolescent maturation was observed in various developmental domains: the self (personality, identity, self-concept clarity), per- sonal relationships with parents and peers, empathy toward others, and internalizing and externalizing problems. Maturation was also

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observed at both the group level (in the variable-centered descrip- tive models) and the intraindividual level (in the person-centered descriptive models).

These maturational processes indicate normative development: adolescent psychosocial development has a clear direction, and a majority of adolescents show this direction in development (“typ- icality,” according to Hollenstein & Lougheed, 2013). At the same time, I observed multidirectionality or multifinality (Cicchetti & Rogosch, 2002) in the directionality of developmental changes (see paragraph Rules of intraindividual maturation). For instance, undercontrollers (U) could change into both overcontrollers (O) and resilients (R) across 4 years (Meeus et al., 2011). In addition, we found that developmental neighborhood effects specified multi- directionality of development: chances of 4-year change from U ¡ R were higher than of U ¡ O, .50 and .34, respectively. Develop- mental neighborhood effects were also observed in changes of aggressive and anxious types into the no problems type (Meeus et al., 2016). For instance, the aggressive type (Agg) was a closer developmental neighbor to the no problems type (Np) than to the anxious type (Anx): chances of 4-year change from Agg ¡ Np were higher than of Agg ¡ Anx, .36 and .05, respectively. Finally, maturation also implies loss of plasticity. In the aforementioned paragraph on rules of intraindividual maturation, we observed movement to normative endpoints during development: to the resilient personality type, the status identity achievement, or the no problems type showing no notable aggression or anxiety. The 4-year stability of these normative endpoints was substantial, and higher than that of more transient states (such as undercontrol or the identity status moratorium). This is a clear indication that maturing into normative endpoints goes together with loss of plasticity.

The above discussion clarifies that variable-centered and person-centered descriptive models are different and compli-

mentary to each other. Both types of models can describe normative development, but only the person-centered models are able to reveal multidirectionality and loss of plasticity in individuals.

Finally, it is important to note that although maturation is the normative pattern, this does not mean that all adolescents show adaptive development. In late adolescence, for instance, 11.5% shows direct aggression, 21% shows generalized anxiety disorder (Meeus et al., 2016), 16.3% shows social anxiety (Nelemans, Hale, Branje, Raaijmakers, et al., 2014), 13.3% are in the identity status of moratorium (Meeus et al., 2010), and 17% have low levels of both affective and cognitive empathy (Van Lissa et al., 2015). A substantial minority of adolescents shows inability to mature at the end of their teens.

Linking Patterns of Adolescent Psychosocial Development

Adolescent maturation limits impact of parents. Maturation implies that adolescent behavior becomes more stable and orga- nized, and that adolescents become more independent and self- reliant individuals. It could be expected that this would show in the analysis of developmental covariation over time. And this is ex- actly what I observed in the developmental sequence models that identified developmental Patterns 4 and 6, and the long-term mediation models that identified developmental Pattern 7. Devel- opmental Pattern 4 showed parental dominance in the transmission of various behaviors to adolescents. For the transmission of values and conflict resolution styles, however, the impact of parents changed from a unidirectional process in early and middle adoles- cence into a bidirectional process in late adolescence. Therefore, youth behaviors also had impact on parents in late adolescence. This was simply due to adolescent maturation, as stability of

Table 2 Developmental Patterns Observed in Covariation Models Across Countries

Developmental pattern Age period

2. Heterogeneous continuity of personal relationships From childhood to adolescence and adolescence to (emerging) adulthoodHigh-quality relationships with parent and peers lead to high-quality romantic

relationships 3. Good goes together with good, and bad with bad in adolescent development Across adolescence

Consistency of positive and negative developmental outcomes across domains 4. Parental dominance in transmission of attitudes and behavior Early and middle adolescence

Parental attitudes and behaviors precede and drive development of adolescent attitudes and behaviors. The reverse pattern is absent

5a. Adolescent psychopathology leads to erosion of parent-adolescent relationships Across adolescence Adolescent problems lead to deterioration of parent-adolescent relationships.

The reverse pattern is less systematic 5b. Adolescent psychopathology leads to erosion of peer-adolescent relationships Across adolescence

Adolescent problems lead to deterioration of peer relationships. The reverse pattern is less systematic.

6. Adolescent psychopathology prevents adolescent independence from parents Across adolescence Adolescent problems make it harder for parents to grant adolescents

independence over time 7. Parenting adolescents is limited by adolescents’ striving for privacy Early and middle adolescence

Parental interference into adolescent privacy will be counterproductive over time

8. Mood variability and uncertainty are mechanisms of maintenance of adolescent psychopathology

From childhood to late adolescence

Variable moods and personal and social uncertainty serve to maintain psychopathology

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adolescent values and conflict resolution styles increased in the second half of adolescence. Additionally, developmental Pattern 7 showed that adolescent maturation and individuation limits the effectiveness of parenting. Adolescents claim privacy and reject strong parental interference in personal issues such as peer rela- tionships and leisure time. When parents do not respect these adolescent boundaries, this will lead to counterproductive effects such as adolescent secrecy toward parents and increases in ado- lescent delinquency. On the opposite side of the coin, develop- mental Pattern 6 revealed effects of parental sensitivity toward an absence of adolescent maturation. When adolescents show high levels of psychopathology, parents stick to high levels of psycho- logical control and involvement, and are reluctant to grant their children autonomy.

Inability to mature leads to eroded relationships or serves as mechanism of negative developmental outcomes. Develop- mental Patterns 5 and 8 showed developmental sequence, as well as short-term mediation in developmental sequence of covariation of good and bad in development. Developmental Pattern 5 indi- cated that internalizing and externalizing problems lead to eroded relationships with parents and peers later in adolescence. Inability to mature makes adolescents less attractive as social partners over time. Similarly, developmental Pattern 8 revealed that adolescent uncertainty is a key phenomenon in the inability to mature, as it serves as mechanism of persistence in nonadaptive development. Mood variability or sensitivity to social stressors served as mech- anisms of the persistence in (social) anxiety.

The impact of implicit parenting: parents as models. Developmental Patterns 2 and 4 showed that parents serve as role models for adolescents. High-quality relationships with parents in adolescence lead to high-quality relationships with intimate part- ners in emerging adulthood (Pattern 2). Similarly, especially in early to-middle adolescence, parents transmit values, conflict res- olution styles, cognitive empathy, and self-concept clarity to their children (Pattern 4). Indeed, parents have considerable impact on the development of their children (Steinberg, 2001). A common feature of both patterns, however, is that they represent implicit parenting. Simply by modeling relationship behaviors, values, models of the self, and cognitive empathy, parents transmit them to their children. Explicit parenting or parents’ socialization efforts are absent here, and also not necessarily needed. These findings are in stark contrast with developmental Pattern 7, where we observed limits of explicit parenting when it comes to personal issues such as privacy, leisure time, and choice of friends. To- gether, these findings suggest that implicit parenting may be as useful as explicit parenting or parental socialization efforts in adolescence.

Longitudinal Models: Where to Go?

A first conclusion is that descriptive and covariation models are incredibly useful in understanding development. Without descrip- tive models, it would have been impossible to conclude that adolescence is a critical period of psychosocial maturation. With- out the covariation models, it would not have been possible to show the fruitfulness of developmental contextualism and to iden- tify the developmental Patterns 2 and 4 to 7. The prediction, developmental sequence, and longitudinal mediation models allow us to examine developmental sequence in transactions between

persons and social contexts in various domains: heterogeneous continuity in personal relationships (Pattern 2), the dominance of parental transmission of attitudes and behaviors (Pattern 4), ado- lescent psychopathology driving erosion of parent–adolescent and peer relationships (Pattern 5), adolescent psychopathology pre- venting parents from granting independence to their children (Pat- tern 6), and the counterproductive effects of parenting that neglects adolescent privacy (Pattern 7). A second conclusion is that we need to expand the covariation models in longitudinal research into adolescent psychosocial development. I list a number of sugges- tions.

A limitation of the covariation models presented in this review is that they address effects at the population level. For instance, the finding that adolescent internalizing problems lead to poorer rela- tionships with parents over time means that youth with more problems at T1 will have poorer relationships at T2, compared with other adolescents in the study. It does not necessarily imply mean-level change of the relationships of adolescents (in this case, deterioration) who show problems. To establish this, we need analytical designs that separate between-subjects associations over time from within-subject associations over time, as very recently has been shown by Hamaker, Kuiper, and Grasman (2015) and Keijsers (2016). Here lies a substantial challenge for the near future.

Second, the study of developmental covariation should, in the end, lead to an understanding of mechanisms explaining devel- opmental sequence. Studying developmental sequence could start with the identification of differential timing of stabiliza- tion of two covarying developmental processes. The more sta- ble process will drive or precede the less stable process, as I have clearly shown in the parents-to-adolescent transmission models. A challenge here is to find developmental sequence in person-centered models. This would require that we identify normative endpoints in two developmental domains, as well as differential timing of normative endpoints. Application of person-centered covariation models could then reveal the extent to which the earlier timing of normative endpoints in develop- mental Domain 1 precedes development of normative endpoints in Domain 2.

Our analysis of the findings from the short-term mediation models made clear that longitudinal designs that include a combination of repeated longer-term assessments and repeated short-term assessments are promising for uncovering the mech- anisms of developmental sequence. In our, Dutch, studies short- term identity uncertainty was found to drive longer term anxiety and depression, and short-term mood swings (mood variability) drove longer term negativity in adolescent-parent relationships.

Although this review shows that longitudinal research into ad- olescent development is expanding, most studies have been con- ducted in affluent Western societies. This calls for substantial investment in setting up longitudinal research in non-Western societies.

Finally, this review concentrated on the behavioral study of adolescence. We are in need of research that integrates the longitudinal behavioral study of adolescence with longitudinal biological and neurocognitive approaches, as well as molecular genetics.

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Appendix A

Sample Descriptions of Our Longitudinal Studies

USAD is a three-wave longitudinal study with waves conducted in 1991, 1994, and 1997. The longitudinal sample consisted of 1,302 participants (42% boys), divided into 25% early adolescents aged 12-14, 26% middle adolescents aged 15-17, 20% late ado- lescents aged 18-20, and 29% post adolescents aged 21 to 24 at baseline. The respondents’ educational level was 16% low-level, 41% middle-level, 25% high-level, and 18% highest level. The sample can be considered to be nationally representative for the native Dutch population of the 1990s. A detailed sample descrip- tion can be found in Meeus, Branje, and Overbeek (2004). CONAMORE (2001–2010) is a six-wave longitudinal study; the first five waves were conducted annually between 2001 and 2005, and an additional sixth wave was completed in 2010. The longi- tudinal sample consisted of 1,313 participants (48.5% boys), di- vided into an early-to-middle adolescent cohort (n � 923; 70.3%), who were 12.4 years of age on average at baseline, and a middle- to-late adolescent cohort (n � 390; 29.7%) with an average age of 16.7 years at baseline. The sample was relatively highly educated: about 20% of the respondents was lower-educated, whereas 80% completed middle-level or high-level education. Most adolescents were native Dutch (86%). A detailed sample description can be found in Klimstra et al. (2009). RADAR-young (2005–present) is

an ongoing longitudinal study. The study started in 2005, and until now eight waves have been conducted. The sample consisted of 497 adolescents (56.9% boys), their fathers and mothers, one sibling and the adolescent’s best friend. At first measurement, the adolescents were 13.03 years of age and in their first year of junior high school. Most adolescents were native Dutch (95%), and came from families classified as having medium or high socioeconomic status (89%). These distributions indicate that respondents had a higher average socioeconomic status (SES) than the general pop- ulation of the Netherlands (CBS, 2005). A detailed sample de- scription can be found in Van Lier et al. (2008). RADAR-old (2002–present) is an ongoing longitudinal study. Until now, 11 waves have been conducted. The sample consisted of 323 adoles- cents (48.9% boys), and their fathers and mothers. At first mea- surement, the adolescents were 13.2 years of age and in their first year of junior high school. Adolescents were native Dutch (99%), and most of them came from families classified as having medium or high socioeconomic status (70%). These distributions indicate that respondents had a higher average SES than the general pop- ulation of the Netherlands (CBS, 2005). A detailed sample de- scription can be found in Van Doorn et al. (2007).

(Appendices continue)

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Appendix B

Overview of Literature Search

Databases Research reports included

N

Developmental domain PsycINFO

Web of Science/ Scopus Search terms

Publications checked N

Meta-analyses/ Systematic

reviews Research articles

Descriptive models

Personality and identity

X X Personality development and adolescence and longitudinal research, rank-order stability of personality and adolescence, rank-order consistency of personality and adolescence, rank-order consistency of self-concept clarity and adolescence, rank-order stability of self-concept clarity and adolescence, profile similarity of personality and adolescence, profile stability of personality and adolescence

916 5 16

Personal relationships and empathy

X Parent-adolescent relationships and longitudinal, development of parent-adolescent relationships and longitudinal, conflict resolution in adolescence and longitudinal, adolescent best friend relationships and longitudinal, friendships in adolescence and longitudinal, friends in adolescence and longitudinal, support in adolescent friendships and longitudinal, adolescent perceptions of friendships and longitudinal, adolescent’s perceptions of friendships and longitudinal, intimacy in adolescent friendships and longitudinal, development of adolescent friendships, friendships in adolescence, dominance in friendships and adolescence, power in friendships and adolescence, conflict in friendships and adolescence, development and empathy and puberty, empathy and adolescence and longitudinal, adolescent friendships and developmental trajectories, adolescent friendships and longitudinal, adolescent friendships and longitudinal and growth mixture modeling, adolescence and developmental trajectories and friendships

1,672 27

Problem behavior

X Adolescence and anxiety and longitudinal, development of depression and adolescence, development of aggression and adolescence, development of physical aggression and adolescence, adolescence and age- crime curve, age-crime curve, adolescence and development of delinquency, development of delinquency, development of offending, criminal careers

1,955 2 32

Prediction models

Personal relationships

X Longitudinal and intergenerational transmission of relationships, longitudinal and parents and romantic relationships

206 31

Developmental sequence models

Transmission from parents to adolescents

X Longitudinal transmission of conflict resolution, intergenerational transmission of self-concept clarity, longitudinal transmission of self-concept clarity, intergenerational transmission of empathy, longitudinal transmission of empathy, interplay of affective and cognitive empathy,

488 23

(Appendices continue)

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Appendix B (continued)

Databases Research reports included

N

Developmental domain PsycINFO

Web of Science/ Scopus Search terms

Publications checked N

Meta-analyses/ Systematic

reviews Research articles

Adolescent psychopathology and adolescent relationships

X Parenting and anxiety, parenting and depression, longitudinal research and parent-adolescent relationships and anxiety, longitudinal research and parent-adolescent relationships and depression, parent- adolescent problems and internalizing problems, longitudinal research and parent-adolescent relationships and externalizing, longitudinal research and parenting and externalizing problems, longitudinal and parenting and internalizing problems, anxiety and friendships and longitudinal research, depression and friendships and longitudinal research, adolescent friendships and depression and longitudinal research, adolescent friendships and anxiety and longitudinal research, adolescent peers and depression and longitudinal research, adolescent peers and anxiety and longitudinal research, depression and friendships and longitudinal research, anxiety and friendships and longitudinal research

493 35

Explaining developmental sequence: Longitudinal mediation models

Long-term and short-term mediation

X X Parental privacy invasion, adolescence and privacy invasion, adolescence and emotional dynamics and emotions and longitudinal research and mood, adolescence and longitudinal research and mood variability, adolescence and mood variability, mood variability, mood variability and research, mood variability and longitudinal, emotions and adolescence and longitudinal and puberty, adolescence and anxiety and depression and identity and anxiety and longitudinal research, identity and anxiety, identity and depression

1,098 14

Total 6,828 7 178

Received September 28, 2015 Revision received August 24, 2016

Accepted September 14, 2016 �

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Correction to Meeus (2016)

In the article “Adolescent Psychosocial Development: A Review of Longitudinal Models and Research,” by Wim Meeus (Developmental Psychology, 2016, Vol. 52, No. 12, 1969 –1993. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/dev0000243), the following headings were inadvertently set at the wrong level: Prediction Models, Developmental Sequence Models, and Gender Differences, Adoles- cent Psychopathology and Adolescent Relationships, Parent-adolescent and peer relation- ships., The impact of implicit parenting: parents as models., and Adolescent psychopathology and independence from parents. The online version of this article has been corrected.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/dev0000313

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