The Quality of Social Simulation: An Example from Research Policy Modelling
testwork
ITS832_Chapter_3.pdf
ITS 832 Chapter 3
The Quality of Social Simulation: AnExample from Research Policy Modelling
Information Technology in a Global Economy
Professor Miguel Buleje
Introduction
• The Quality of Social Simulation: • An Example from Research Policy Modelling
• A simulation is good • “… when we get from it what we originally would have liked to get
from the target”
• Different views • Standard • Constructionist • User community
• Chapter focus • Different approaches to assessing the quality of a simulation
Simulation comparison
Standard View • Verification
• Does the code do what it is supposed to do?
• Refers to well know method of verification.
• In SW, does the code is working as expected or has defects?
• Validation • Do the outputs resemble observations of the target?
• Relies on the observability of reality • Must be able to compare simulation output to reality
• Compares the REAL with artificial data produced by simulation
• Standard view may suffer from under-determination • Multiple incompatible theories may result from the same data
Constructionist View
• Compares • What you observe in the real world with,
• What you observe as simulation output
• Seems similar to Standard view, right? • Constructionists view all observations as constructions
• Constructionists reject the possibility of evaluation because there is no common reality to refer to.
• Evaluation is not possible • Even observations of reality lack the ability to pass validation
User Community View
• Evaluation is carried out • Using the observations of the affected user community
• Not just based on prior knowledge
• Closer to “real” results
• Often, results are influenced by multiple related factors
• The evaluations of any simulation would be impacted by: • Expectations
• Anticipations
• Experience of the Community that uses it.
Policy Modelling for Ex-ante Evaluation of EU Funding Programs
Horizon 2020 Study Workflow
Summary
• Simulation quality depends on simulation process
• Three different simulation views • Standard
• Constructionist
• User community
• User community view • Most promising
• Most work-intensive
