Political Science paper for 2 page
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InsidetheOvalOfficeLecture-OFOKB.pptx
CHALLENGES OF
PRESIDENTIAL DECISION-MAKING
Matthew N. Beckmann
1
Looking across Pennsylvania Avenue, the
White House is a model of neatness.
Things are hardly so tidy inside the West Wing.
The President is too busy to study…
…the issues are complex, information is limited…
…reporters care more about political scandals, gaffes, and controversy than policy clarity…
…and opponents are eager to highlight divisions, exploit vulnerabilities, and criticize hesitation.
Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.
Mike Tyson
A GOOD DAY’S WORK
Time
A GOOD DAY’S WORK
Median Day: 12 hours, 44 minutes
Time
A GOOD DAY’S WORK
Shortest typical day: JFK’s 9 hours, 53 minutes
Time
A GOOD DAY’S WORK
Longest typical day: Carter’s 15+ Hour Days
Time
Neustadt’s
“Rule of First Things First”
“The net result may be a far cry from the order of priorities
that would appeal to scholars or to columnists –
or to the President himself.”
PUBLIC DEMANDS
Speeches
Crises
Ceremonies
POLITICAL DEMANDS
Reporters
Fundraisers
Scandals
“But if you happen to be president just now, what you are faced with, mainly, is not a public-relations problem but an endless string of decisions….
They don’t order themselves neatly for his consideration but come in waves, jumbled on top of each other.”
-- Michael Lewis
“Obama’s Way” in Vanity Fair
“I have learned that leadership is all about making decisions… A President is the decider, and most often, time doesn’t permit the luxury of long deliberation.”
-- Andy Card, Chief of Staff, Bush 43
THE BASIC CHALLENGE:
Make Good Decisions
18
THE BASIC CHALLENGE:
Make Good Decisions
QUICKLY
19
A DECISION-MAKING SYSTEM
Need Process To..
Focus Agenda
Generate/Analyze Proposals
Winnow Specific “Options”
Structure Deliberation
Implement Decision!
The Spokes of the Wheel Model
A DECISION-MAKING SYSTEM
OMB
Treasury
Political Affairs
Legislative
Affairs
Press Sec
CEA
CoS
Commerce
The Spokes of the Wheel Model
A DECISION-MAKING SYSTEM
OMB
Treasury
Political Affairs
Legislative
Affairs
Press Sec
CEA
CoS
Commerce
Senate
Republicans
Senate
Democrats
House Republicans
House Democrats
The Spokes of the Wheel Model
A DECISION-MAKING SYSTEM
OMB
Treasury
Political Affairs
Legislative
Affairs
Press Sec
CEA
CoS
Commerce
Family
Friends
Groups
Everyone!!
Senate
Republicans
Senate
Democrats
House Republicans
House Democrats
Governors
Interns
JIMMY CARTER AND THE TENNIS COURT
“For time being, our family & guests.
Staff & Cabinet –
on occasion – can request use from me.”
YET EVEN CARTER HAD A LIMIT
RICHARD NIXON AND THE “BERLIN WALL”
“The Standard Model”
Walcott and Hult (2005)
Hierarchical
Formal
Clear Chain of Command
Subject-Specific Advisors
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A DECISION-MAKING SYSTEM
The Pyramid Model
President
CEA
Politics
CoS
OMB
Treas.
NEC
Leg
Deputy CoS - Policy
Deputy CoS - Operations
A DECISION-MAKING SYSTEM
Spokes of Wheel
Access to Oval:
Lots of People
Few Filters
Pyramid
Access to Oval:
Few People
Many Filters
TOUGH CHOICES
Henry Kissinger noted the President doesn’t make easy decisions; he makes the hard ones. Kissinger called these “51/49 decisions.”
TOUGH CHOICES
Indeed, Presidents must routinely confront decisions that are…
1. Significant
2. Controversial
3. Intractable (allies can’t reach compromise)
Some problems presidents face are idiosyncratic to the particulars of a time, a president, or a staff.
Other problems plague every president. The following are some of the most common…
PROBLEM 1: LEAKS
Losers in internal policy debates may take their case public by “leaking” it to the press.
Example:
Nixon &
Plumbers
“Obama had one pet peeve that could make him lose his cool. It was a common source of anger for presidents: leaks… Naturally in Washington nearly every time he got upset about leaks it leaked.”
PROBLEM 2: OVERZEALOUS STAFF
Tempting to ensure the boss makes the “right” decision by shading information (or simply doing it without asking).
Example: Reagan and Iran Contra
Bush 41
&
Sununu
PROBLEM 3: “THE BUBBLE”
White House staffers
can be slow to…
Give bad news
Point out problems
Offer criticism
Obama, Press Conference 11/14/13
“I was not informed directly that the website would not be working the way it was supposed to. Had I been informed, I wouldn't be going out saying, ‘Boy, this is going to be great’…
I don't think I'm stupid enough to go around saying this is going to be like shopping on Amazon or Travelocity a week before the website opened if I thought it wasn't going to work.”
PROBLEM 4: GOING NATIVE
Appointees can become
advocates for their agency
rather than for president.
Example: Kennedy & Webb
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1mJrG_jUUhE
Presidents must
rely heavily on their staff.
THE PRESIDENT’S HEART AND MIND
The problem is staffers’ actions might not reflect the president’s preferred ones.
THE PRESIDENT’S HEART AND MIND
THE PRESIDENT’S HEART AND MIND
This rarely reflects malicious intent; rather it
emerges from normal human impulses:
uncertainty, ambition, earnestness, and beyond.
THE PRESIDENT’S HEART AND MIND
The Chief of Staff’s job is
minimizing such biases.
THE PRESIDENT’S HEART AND MIND
Pick people who are
Competent
Committed to the President
(not just policy, not just self)
THE PRESIDENT’S HEART AND MIND
2. Run process that
privileges good information
faithfully/efficiently moves up/down chain
THE PRESIDENT’S HEART AND MIND
Ultimately, then, it is up to the President to not only demand his staff’s loyalty, but also to channel it.
Insist on differing ideas
Appreciate honest assessments
Demand credible evidence
Deeds > Words
As President Clinton’s former staffer, Bruce Reed, put it…
“Sooner or later, the fate of every White House comes down to the way the President thinks.”
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CHALLENGES OF
PRESIDENTIAL DECISION-MAKING
Matthew N. Beckmann
51
