i need a writer to make a presentation for me

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IE 468 / OR 442

Term Project

Report due date: By midnight before the presentation day

Presentation day: TBA

Conduct a simulation study on one of the following systems:

1) SIUE cafeteria in MUC

With frequent complaints from students about waiting times in lines during their short

lunch (or dinner) breaks, you are asked to find the most economic and effective ways to cut

average total time in system by 15%. To this end, your team must develop simulation

models, evaluate various configurations/scenarios, and propose the best one. To improve

performance of the system, you could modify the layout or the process, add more resource

units, or provide any suggestions to achieve the goal (you may not be able to achieve 15%

though, which is fine).

2) Any other system of your interest

In this case, you must submit a brief project proposal by 10/24 and get the instructor’s

approval.

Guidelines

1. Data collection & curve fitting: Visit the site during the busiest hours of operation (lunch

or dinner time) if possible. You must collect data about interarrival times to the cafeteria,

and service times in at least one vendor. For other processes, make reasonable

assumptions on their distributions based on some observations and/or interviews. You

may also have to make some assumptions in some parts of your simulation model that

are hard to quantify/model/program (e.g. limited data due to limited resource

availability, customers’ mental behavior, etc.). Please make the assumptions as realistic

as possible and provided some justification about your choice. For facilitating data

collection, there are some stopwatch apps available on App Store or Google Play such as

“StopWatch Xtreme Free” that are quite handy for recording interarrival/service times.

2. Model development, evaluation & recommendation: First, develop a simulation model

for the existing system (AS-IS), and verify* your model. Validate** your model using

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performance measures such as average time in system. Compare simulation results with

actually observed results to check if your model is valid. (See below for details about

verification and validation). Second, modify your model that accommodates your ideas

for improvements and measure the improvements gained by the modified models (TO-

BE). You may need to investigate several modified configurations/scenarios. Summarize

all these suggestions, the improvement achieved, and ball-park estimated cost & time to

implement those suggestions. Finally, provide your final recommendation.

3. Presentation and report: Each team will be given about 15 minutes for presentation.

Every team member must present his or her work in the context of the whole project.

Clarify the role of each member in the report (title page, TOC, etc.). The report must be

succinct yet self-explanatory, describing all details you cannot provide during

presentation. Only the team leader needs to upload your team’s ppt, final report, and

other supplementary materials (if any) by the due date via BB.

Verification* and Validation**

Once you develop your AS-IS model, you need to verify and validate it. Please see the appendix

to understand how to perform verification and validation. You need to describe how you verified

and validated your simulation model with a few examples for each.

Some examples:

- You may compare the sample history data with the data you collected on the spot

(although they may not closely match due to the stochastic nature of the system).

- You can also validate your model using some key performance measures, such as average

time in system and queue length. Compare simulation results with actually observed

results to check if your model is valid. For example, you may collect actual times in system

of about 30-40 customers and compare the average with that obtained from the simulation

run.

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IE 468 / OR 442

Grading Criteria for Term Project

1. Oral Presentation (20 pts)

 Organization

 Clarity

 Professionalism

 Addressing Questions

2. Term Paper (80 pts)

 Writing (20 pts)

o Organization and Comprehensiveness

o Clarity and readability

 Significance of Results (10 pts)

 Technical Quality of Simulation Steps (50 pts)

(Use these named section headings in the paper)

I. Title Page: Project Title and Team Members

II. Problem Statement and Objectives of the Study

III. The As-Is System: Layout and Entity/Process Flow

IV. Data Collection, Curve Fitting, and Assumptions

V. Modeling, Programming, and Animation in ARENA

VI. Verification* of Program (illustrate with a few examples) and Validation** of

Model (compare key performance measures of the simulation model with ones of

the existing system)

VII. The To-Be System(s)

VIII. Experiments and Output Analyses

IX. Interpretations and Recommendations

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Appendix: Verification & Validation

* Verification: Concerned with building the model right (debugging). It is utilized in the

comparison of the conceptual model to the computer representation that implements that

conception. It asks the questions:

- Is the model implemented correctly in the computer?

- Are the input parameters and logical structure of the model correctly represented?

Verification Process

There are several general ways to verify simulation models. Some are applicable to your project,

some are not:

- Have the code checked by someone other than the programmer.

- Make a flow diagram which includes each logically possible action a system can take

when an event occurs, and follow the model logic for each action for each event type.

- Closely examine the model output for reasonableness under a variety of settings of the

input parameters. Have the code print out a wide variety of output statistics.

- Have the computerized model print the input parameters at the end of the simulation, to

be sure that these parameter values have not been changed inadvertently.

- Make the computer code as self-documenting as possible. Give a precise definition of

every variable used, and a general description of the purpose of each major section of code.

More specifically, you may perform extreme/stress tests with various input parameters. For

example:

- Create only a single entity and follow the entity step-by-step to be sure that the model

logic and data are correct.

- Try a deterministic scenario and estimate the output; e.g., replace some or all model

parameters with constants in order to predict system behavior.

- Check how the model behaves under extreme conditions, e.g., introducing only one part

type, increasing/decreasing interarrival or service times, etc.

o Make effective use of the animation to reveal problems.

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** Validation: Concerned with building the right model. It is utilized to determine that a model

is an accurate representation of the real system. Validation is usually achieved through the

calibration of the model, an iterative process of comparing the model to actual system behavior

and using the discrepancies between the two. This process is repeated until model accuracy is

judged to be acceptable.

(Source: Notes on Verification/Validation by Herman D. Hughes