Reserve Estimation

HW 4

Part A1:

Convert the probabilistic OGIP estimation of HW3 to an EUR estimation, using the recovery factors for the gas given as a probability input function in HW4A_RF.xls. Use the function for shale gas RF as inputs for the EUR computations. Here are the steps

a. Your output function needs to be an RIskOutput function.

b. Run the MC simulation.

c. Determine the P10, P50 & P90 EUR values (assuming well is economic)

d. Give a table with P10, P50 & P90 EUR, as well as proved, probable and possible reserves volumes.

Part B:

a. Determine the correlation between depth and Gas Content, and simulate (with @RISK) 100 pairs of randomly generated depth and Gas Content data;

b. Give a cross-plot on the same graph with (1) the raw input data, and (2) the data generated from the distributions [under task (a)].

c. Fit a least squares regression curve through each of the data sets using xcel.

d. Show the equations and correlation coefficients of each of the equations in the plot.

If you have done this properly, the input and simulated dataset will have similar clustering and similar least squares fits.