risk analysis and threat assessment

Threat

Frequency/probability of Occurrence:

· 4 - Highly likely (Near 100% probability in the next year)

· 3 - Likely (Between 10% and 100% probability in the next year, or at least one chance in the next 10 years)

· 2- Possible (Between 1% and 10% probability in the next year, or at least one chance in the next 100 years)

· 1 - Unlikely (Less than 1% probability in the next 100 years)

· 0 - No chance

Seasonal pattern or calendar link?

· No

· Yes. Specify season(s) or dates when hazard occurs: _____________________________________________________________

Include historic occurrences information.

Probable duration:

Potential Speed of Onset:

· Minimal or no notice

· 6 to 12 hours notice

· 12 to 24 hours notice

· More than 24 hours notice

Available warning mechanisms:

Consequences & Impacts

Potential impact on human health & safety:

· 4 - Catastrophic (Possibility for multiple deaths)

· 3- Critical (Injuries or illness resulting in permanent disability)

· 2 - Limited (Temporary injuries)

· 1 - Negligible (Injuries treatable with first aid)

Include information available from historic occurrences or other credible estimates.

Potential impact on property and infrastructure:

· 4 - Catastrophic (Shutdown of critical facilities for 1 month or more; more than 50% of property severely damaged)

· 3 - Critical (Shutdown of critical facilities for at least 2 weeks; 25% to 50% of property severely damaged)

· 2- Limited (Shutdown of critical facilities for 1-2 weeks; 10% to 25% of property severely damaged)

· 1 - Negligible (Shutdown of critical facilities for 24 hours or less; less than 10% of property severely damaged)

Include information available from historic occurrences or other credible estimates.

What are potential impacts on the environment and/or agriculture?

Include information available from historic occurrences or other credible estimates.

Potential impact on continuity of operations:

· 4 - Catastrophic (moderate- to long-term (36 hours and longer) impacts on essential functions)

· 3 - Critical (moderate-term (12-36 hour) impacts on multiple essential functions and/or longer-term impacts on all functions)

· 2 - Limited (moderate-term (12-36 hour) impacts on some functions and/or shorter-term impacts on small number of essential functions)

· 1 - Negligible (short-term (less than 12 hours) impacts on some functions

Include information available from historic occurrences or other credible estimates.

Potential for cascading or secondary effects?

· No

· Yes. Specify effects:

Describe historic examples or estimates, if available.

Vulnerability

Are there particular locations or areas of the city that are more vulnerable to this hazard? If so, list/describe:

· No

· Yes

Are particular populations more likely to be negatively impacted? If so, who/which?

· No

· Yes

Are particular types of infrastructure or more likely to be affected? If so, which?

· No

· Yes

Are particular aspects of government and emergency operations more likely to be negatively impacted? If so, which?

· No

· Yes

Are particular environmental factors or areas more likely to be negatively impacted? If so, which?

· No

· Yes

Hazard Impact Analysis

Describe the potential impacts of the hazard on:

· The public (people)

· Responders

· Continuity of operations including continued delivery of services

· Property

· Facilities and infrastructure

· The environment

· Economic condition of the jurisdiction or organization

· Public confidence in the jurisdiction or organization’s governance