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C L I M AT E , D ATA A N D S C I E N C E F R O M T H E W E AT H E R C H A N N E L

Harvest: Recovery and Risk after Hurricane Michael

Written by Marcus Stern | Video Produced by Pat Maddox and Kait Parker | Photography by Charlotte Kesl

L ast October, Hurricane Michael roared across southwest Georgia, laying waste to cotton �elds, pecan orchards and pine groves. It blew apart barns and chicken houses, mangled irrigation systems and ripped up fences. It scattered cattle and pulled down power lines.

And because so many here rely on timber as a safe haven for savings, it crushed retirement plans, wiped out inheritances and le� many farmers without the collateral they need to get loans to plant this year s̓ row crops.

Hurricane Michael, which struck at the onset of what was expected to be a prosperous harvest, exposed the vulnerabilities of farmers to intensifying weather patterns. If extreme weather becomes more common, as many climate scientists predict, the disruption to southwest Georgia s̓ economy could be just beginning.

Perhaps more than anything else, Michael revealed just how underinsured and, therefore, unprepared many farmers are for the rising risk of extreme weather. It exposed the inadequacy of current farm insurance practices for a weather disaster. And, for many farmers, it highlighted just how precarious the farming life can be.

“The farmers of this state and across this country who feed you and me,” said Georgia Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black, “theyʼre in the risk business.”

Mark Spooner walks through fallen trees on the property he owns with his father-in-law in Donalsonville, Ga. on February 20, 2019. Winds from Hurricane Michael damaged 70 percent of the trees on their property with an estimated loss of $250,000 from that damage alone.

During several hours of �erce winds and pelting rains, the seven rural counties of southwest Georgia lost an estimated $1 billion in timber, $640 million in pecans and tens of millions of dollars in cotton and poultry.

Those are the projected losses a�er insurance payments have been made, according to a report prepared for the Georgia legislature.

“Youʼre talking a pile of money that has gone poof,” said Tommy Dollar, the third-generation owner of Dollar Farm Products in Bainbridge, Georgia. He was among the local business leaders who helped prepare the loss report for the state legislature. “It s̓ just amazing how much money has been sucked out of our economy. The deeper you look the more damage you see.”

Michael was the second major hurricane to hit this area in two years. Hurricane Irma gave it a glancing blow in 2017. Farmers here say tornadoes have become more frequent and damaging in recent years. Rain patterns are changing, too, they say. For instance, since Michael struck Oct. 10, an unusually high amount of rain has muddied the �elds, disrupting both harvest and salvage e�orts.

The relationship between global warming and extreme weather is a hot political topic and is still being studied scienti�cally. Data from a weather observation station in Albany, Georgia, showed the average annual temperature has risen 2.8 degrees Fahrenheit since 1983. The data showed average annual precipitation has risen from 48 inches to 52 inches over the past century. In 2018, it topped 57 inches. Many southwest Georgia communities were even wetter.

Pine trees snapped by the winds of Hurricane Michael on a road in Seminole County, Ga. on February 20, 2019.

Weather disruptions like Michael are likely to prompt a rethinking of timber and pine production throughout the region, said Je�rey Dorfman, a farm economist at the University of Georgia. “I think it s̓ likely we will have to invent some new types of insurance.”

Insurance isnʼt widely available on timber or pecan trees, although most pecan farmers have insurance on their annual nut harvest. Many row-crop farmers get the basic catastrophic insurance o�ered under a federally subsidized program, but it covers only about 60 percent of their direct production costs. Those costs include things like seed, fertilizer and pesticides but not labor and equipment. Barns, irrigation systems and labor arenʼt covered.

“Growers in the southeast feel the federal crop insurance program isnʼt designed well for them, that premiums are too high and the payout too low,” Dorfman said. “So they buy the minimum level only. They need to adjust to the fact that maybe in today s̓ weather environment that bad things are going to become more frequent.”

Ironically, as new technologies help farmers achieve ever-greater yields, weather remains an ever-more threatening wild card.

Tattered cotton plants in Donalsonville, Ga. on February 20, 2019. The region sustained extensive damage from Hurricane Michael in October 2018.

“The biggest uncontrollable I got is weather,” Dollar said. “I can control the fertility, the planting depth, the diseases and the insects. I canʼt control a hurricane, a �ood or a drought.”

Despite its potential impact, climate change is a delicate subject in the Farm Belt. Adapting new farming techniques and reinventing crop insurance for an era of extreme weather wonʼt be easy — partly because of a persistent reluctance even among many victims to accept changing climate amid political controversy over its underlying causes.

“A lot of farmers are reticent to talk about climate change and global warming because it s̓ such a hot political issue,” said J. Gordon Arbuckle, a sociologist at Iowa State University. “Most of them attribute it primarily to natural variation and not to human factors.”

Arbuckle conducts the Iowa Farm and Rural Life Poll, an annual survey of Iowa farmers. Over the last seven years, he has been asking farmers about climate change. About two-thirds of the public, including farmers, agree that weather is changing. But only about 8 percent of farmers believe it s̓ caused by human activity, according to Arbuckle — a far smaller proportion than the general public.

“Politics and world view are huge” factors in rural attitudes toward climate change, he said, adding that he urges people working with farmers not refer to global warming or climate change.

“We suggest they talk about weather variability because otherwise they could potentially alienate the 60-some percent of farmers who donʼt accept that science,” he said.

***

Winds from Hurricane Michael damaged 70 percent of the trees on a 125-acre property owned by Gene Cook and his son-in-law Mark Spooner in Donalsonville, Ga., shown here on February 20, 2019. Cook said that when they tried to sell the wood the price was one-tenth of

what it was for upright trees tree years ago the crews are not willing to complete the job.

As Michael churned into Georgia on the a�ernoon of Oct. 10, Charles and Kaye Childree waited in their house outside Donalsonville for the wind to die down before venturing out to check on their timber. “We knew trees were down, but when I got there and saw it, I just about lost it,” Mrs. Childree said.

The older couple — he s̓ 85 and she s̓ 78 — had planted 460 acres of pines 27 years ago. They were three years away from harvesting it. But in little more than three hours, Michael reduced their dream to a twisted, splintered mess.

“It was devastating,” Mrs. Childree said.

The full extent of the couple s̓ losses would be revealed layer by layer in the days ahead. First they con�rmed their trees were uninsured. Very few farmers have insurance on their trees; timber insurance isnʼt widely available. The couple s̓ two barns were destroyed. To their dismay, they learned that their insurance company had stopped covering their barns a few years back.

Even worse news came when the couple looked into getting their downed trees to lumber mills. If they arenʼt o� the ground within a few months, blue fungus sets in, making them worthless. The couple discovered there arenʼt nearly enough loggers to pick up everybody s̓ downed trees. Because of the storm, demand for logging crews had simply overwhelmed supply.

Tattered cotton plants in a �eld in Donalsonville, Ga. on February 20, 2019. The region sustained extensive damage from Hurricane Michael in October 2018.

“You canʼt hardly get anybody to even talk to you about harvesting it,” Mr. Childree said.

Even with more loggers, the situation would be dire. Rainfall has been unseasonably high since Michael struck, making the �elds and forests too soggy many days for timber crews to work.

Despite the surplus of rain and shortage of loggers, local mills still have more trees than they can possibly handle. For that reason, the price of timber at the mills tumbled 90 percent the day a�er the storm. For the Childrees and other timber owners here, that s̓ been the �nancial back-breaker. Even if they �nd a way to get most of their trees to the mill before rot sets in — a matter of a few months — theyʼll get pennies on the dollar. Before Michael, the Childrees were looking at making $1 million on their 30-year timber investment.

“Now, weʼll be lucky to get a hundred thousand,” Mr. Childree said, not even enough to cover the cost of clearing the land and replanting. “I really donʼt know what Iʼm going to do.”

“That was our future,” Mrs. Childree said. “It was for our children a�er we were gone.”

***

Frank Brooks listened to the pop, pop, pop of nuts exploding beneath his truck s̓ wheels as he drove through a decimated pecan orchard. He has 20,000 pecan trees spread over 1,100 acres. He estimates he lost 15 percent of his trees and 60 to 70 percent of his nut harvest to Michael. Ten weeks a�er the storm, workers were busy clearing one of his orchards of downed trees and limbs so harvesters could get in to collect the nuts before they rotted. Tree debris was being placed in tall piles to be burned later. It was slow going.

Frank Brooks and his dog Leroy stand in his pecan orchard in Baconton, Ga. on February 21, 2019. Brooks owns 1,100 acres of pecans trees and estimated he lost 1,800 trees because of Hurricane Michael.

“Before we could pick up about 100 acres a day,” he said. “But now, even when the weather is good, we may take up 20.” Unfortunately, the weather hasnʼt been cooperating. Rain has cost them two or three days of work

a week.

“It s̓ tough going,” he said.

Meanwhile, the pecan nuts are deteriorating and the price they fetch has dropped in half, from $2.50 a pound to $1.25.

What cranberries are to Maine and almonds are to California, pecans are to Georgia — almost as powerfully symbolic as the state s̓ other marquis export, peaches. No other state produces more pecans. Locals claim Baconton, where Brooks lives, is the “World Pecan Center” and birthplace of Georgia s̓ pecan industry. In a re�ection of neighborly rivalry, nearby Albany claims to be the “Pecan Capital of the World.”

The industry got a huge boost from Chinese demand beginning a decade ago, and sales and prices soared.

Michael wasnʼt the only jolt farmers got in 2017. China placed a 47 percent tari� on pecans last year in response to President Trumps̓ tari�s on Chinese products.

“I donʼt know of any Chinese buyers in the market now,” Brooks said. “They just quit buying.” The lost market resulted in a sharp drop in pecan prices. Chinese tari�s have also a�ected cotton, peanuts and soybeans.

In recent years, record-high pecan prices had helped o�set losses in traditional row crops as commodity prices and yields slumped. But last fall, the outlook for row crops looked brighter. As the cotton harvest got under way, it appeared both a bumper crop and high prices were about to brighten the bottom line of farmers. “Southwest Georgia was going to have a super crop this year,” Brooks said, referring to 2018. “It was probably going to be the biggest crop weʼve had in eight or nine years.”

Michael hit shortly a�er the harvest began. When a farmer loses a cotton crop, it can be replanted the next year. But when a pecan orchard is destroyed, the orchard has to be cleared at great expense and new trees have to be planted. That typically isnʼt covered by insurance. Then it takes eight years for the replanted trees to mature enough to generate income. Those eight years of losses arenʼt covered by insurance, either.

In addition to his pecan orchards, Brooks has 2,000 acres of cotton, 800 acres of peanuts, 400 acres of corn and 150 acres of soybeans. Much of his cotton remains in the �elds either on vines or in the mud because of the rain. When the �elds are wet, machinery falls over or gets bogged down. With each passing week, it s̓ less likely his remaining cotton will get picked up.

A pecan tree nursery, owned by Scott Vann, in Baconton, Ga. on February 21, 2019. The region sustained extensive damage from Hurricane Michael in October 2018.

Farmers arenʼt legally required to have crop insurance, but their bankers frequently insist they get at least basic catastrophic insurance, which covers only a small portion of potential losses. More robust coverage is available but many farmers, like Brooks, feel it s̓ not worth the added expense.

“I just never felt it was going to pay for me because Iʼve never had a major problem like this,” Brooks said.

As he drove his pickup past decimated pecan orchards and cotton �elds, he pointed to a cut in one of the orchards.

“This is the second year in a row this spot has been hit by a tornado,” he said.

Not all southwest Georgia farmers will survive Michael s̓ rampage, Brooks said. Theyʼll have incurred too much in the way of uninsured losses. Many wonʼt be able to pay o� last year s̓ loans. At banks across the region, loan committees are meeting behind closed doors to si� through loan applications and decide who will plant this spring and who wonʼt.

“Some will quit because they donʼt want to deal with the risk,” Brooks said. “Others just wonʼt make it �nancially. They just didnʼt have enough cushion to survive something like this.”

***

A�er Hurricane Michael, forestry consultant Perry Clements spent weeks assessing his clientsʼ losses and helping them weigh their salvage options. But those options were limited. For many of his clients, timber serves as a retirement fund.

“My job has been to sit down with people and throw cold water in their face,” he said. “The reality is weʼve been dealt an unknown. This is unprecedented here.”

He tells the story of one client close to retirement who is physically unable to work and planned to harvest her trees when they matured in �ve years. Her plan then was to pay o� her mortgage and live o� Social Security. But Michael destroyed her timber and her plan.

Pine trees snapped by the winds of Hurricane Michael in October 2018 in a �eld in Seminole County, Ga. on February 20, 2019.

“Those trees were her 401(k),”said Clement, a timber manager for Rozier & Associates in Bainbridge. “It was catastrophic. She lost everything. That was probably one of the hardest conversations Iʼve had. It got very emotional.”

Hurricane Michael forced Clement to become a grief counselor.

“I never in my career thought I would be dealing with something like this. Weʼre foresters. We grow trees. But weʼve had to go out and hold hands and have prayer meetings — a lot of praying and crying.”

It remains unclear to what degree farmers here will accept the science behind grim climate change predictions and begin looking for ways to make themselves, their land and their crops more resilient.

SIDEBAR: Climate Change and Extreme Weather: It s̓ Complicated

An irrigation system wrecked by Hurricane Michael lays in a �eld in Donalsonville, Ga. on February 20, 2019. The region sustained extensive damage from Hurricane Michael in October 2018.

Arbuckle, the Iowa State University sociologist who studies farming and rural life, said many farmers are shi�ing their practices in an e�ort to reduce erosion, such as no-till farming and growing grasses on �elds that lie fallow many months of the year. “But not nearly as many as should. There s̓ a huge potential for farmers and the broader public to bene�t if we could agree on the science and make policy based on it,” Arbuckle said.

But, for now, any consensus is a work in progress.

Gene Cook, whose farm lies near Donalsonville and lost timber to Michael didnʼt necessarily embrace the science of climate change, but he said, “I do believe we abused the Earth and I do believe weʼre paying a price. And it s̓ going to a�ect our livelihood more than it will the people in Atlanta or Washington.”

But Charles and Kaye Childree, the couple who appear to have lost most of their $1 million worth of timber to Hurricane Michael, remain unconvinced.

“I donʼt believe its global warming,” Mrs. Childree said, standing in her kitchen. She turned to her husband, who was seated at the table, and asked if he did.

“No,” he answered.

Gene Cook stands in front of fallen trees on his 125-acre property he owns with his son-in-law in Donalsonville, Ga. on February 20, 2019. Winds from Hurricane Michael damaged 70 percent of the trees and he estimates a loss of $250,000 from that damage alone.

Published March 12, 2019

Article Written by Marcus Stern

Video Produced by Pat Maddox and Kait Parker

Photography by Charlotte Kesl

Correspondent: Kait Parker

Video Editing and Cinematography by Pat Maddox

Coordinating Producer: Dan Wright

Motion Graphics by William Jauregui

Article Edited by Patty Cox, Keith Epstein and Kevin Hayes

Executive Producers: Patty Cox, Greg Gilderman and Kevin Hayes

Contributing Reporting by Jonathan Erdman and Bob Henson

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