Harley General Manager

profilemusic4lyfe
HarleyGeneralManager.docx

· Options:

Facility

Demand Options

Probability

Actions

Expected Payoffs

Large

Low Demand

0.4

Do Nothing

($10)

Low Demand

0.4

Reduce Prices

$50

High Demand

0.6

$70

Small

Low Demand

0.4

$40

High Demand

0.6

Do Nothing

$40

High Demand

0.6

Overtime

$50

High Demand

0.6

Expand

$55

·

· Decision Tree

· Determination of chance probability and respective payoffs:

Build Small:

Low Demand

0.4($40)=$16

High Demand

0.6($55)=$33

Build Large:

Low Demand

0.4($50)=$20

High Demand

0.6($70)=$42

· Determination of Expected Value of each alternative Build Small: $16+$33=$49 Build Large: $20+$42=$62