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GunsandCrimee.pptxGuns and Crime
Introduction
The relationship between guns and crime is unique. The use of guns by offenders help them carry out crimes, increasing offending. The use of guns by potential victims, help victims defend themselves, lowering the benefits of crime and decreasing offending.
This chapter will:
Develop a theoretical model
Discuss the challenges of empirical research on guns.
Look at some of the results of empirical research.
Theoretical Model
Suppose in our initial state of the world, only police officers have access to guns. This will create some corresponding level of offending in the market for crime with victims.
Scenario 1: Now suppose that offenders have access to guns, but not victims. For criminals, this should decrease the cost of offending or increase the probability of a crime being successful thus shifting the supply curve right now and increasing the amount of offending.
Scenario 2: Now suppose that only potential victims and officers have access to guns, but not criminals. This makes criminals less likely to succeed, lowering the expected benefits, thus shifting the demand curve to the left and lowering offending.
Scenario 3: Suppose that both victims and offenders have access to guns. Relative to the starting point of only officers having guns, this could either have a negative or positive effect on offending depending on strength of the effects in scenarios 1 and 2.
Theoretical Model
This model demonstrates that the theoretical relationship between the overall supply of guns and crime is ambiguous.
Under this theoretical model the ideal scenario to minimize crime is to arm potential victims and disarm criminals.
Practically this is challenging to achieve and may be an oversimplified result.
The model assumes that victims and criminals are mutually exclusive groups. Practically, someone who is a potential victim today may use the gun for crime years later.
Criminals may gain access to a gun by stealing from a potential victim.
The model assumes that we can perfectly disarm criminals. This is a very challenging task.
The model also ignores other sides effects associated with gun ownership such as suicides (approximately 60% of gun deaths are suicides), accidental discharges, and escalation effects.
Theoretical Model
Under this theoretical model the ideal scenario is to arm potential victims and disarm criminals.
While this scenario is impossible to perfectly achieve, but there are some ways to theoretically move in that direction.
Increase criminal penalties for crimes committed with a gun.
Allow licensed individuals to carry guns concealed on their persons. Criminalize carrying without a license.
Perform background checks on gun purchases.
Supply of Guns and Crime
We’ve established that the theoretical relationship between the supply of guns and crime is ambiguous. This matter is even further complicated when testing empirically for the effect of guns on crime since victims respond to rising crime by increasing gun ownership (reverse causality bias).
An example of this is demonstrated in Depew and Swensen (2019) which showed that within a census tract (a group of 1 to 8 thousand people) a homicide incident increases concealed carry permit applications by 13%.
To measure the effect of the supply of guns on crime, an exogenous change or change unrelated to crime rates, would need to be observed.
Supply of Guns and Crime
Another challenge to empirical studies is that gun ownership is not something that can be easily measured.
Gun purchases are not observed and even if they were, guns are can easily be concealed and transported.
Surveys or firearm registration could be taken, but there is a strong incentive for criminals and non-criminal gun owners to lie.
Supply of Guns and Crime
Many attempts have been made to estimate the correlation between guns and crime by measuring the correlation between proxy variables and crime.
Suicides with a firearm (as gun ownership increase, the proportion suicides with a firearm increases)
Background checks (Gun purchases cannot be observed, but background checks for gun purchases can)
Voter exit polls
Gun Magazine Subscriptions
Gun shows
Empirical Literature
The number of topics relating to guns and gun control are numerous and their relationship with crime is complex. Some of these laws include
Red flag laws
Concealed carry
Background checks
Child-Access Prevention (CAP) laws
Stand-Your-Ground laws
Waiting period
Assault weapons bans
Unfortunately, due to the complex nature of this topic, much of the research has either not been done, is inconclusive, or is heavily debated.
The RAND Corporation is a policy think thank that summarizes much of the research in this field.
Summary
The theoretical effect of guns on crime is ambiguous.
The theoretical ideal scenario is to arm victims and disarm criminals.
The empirical research is very challenging because
Theoretical outcomes are often ambiguous
People respond to crime by arming themselves creating a high potential for reverse causality.
Lack of reliable datasets.
