Nucor Case
Operating assumptions
| Exhibit 12B | |||||||||
| Modernized | Unmodernized | ||||||||
| Thin-slab Minimill | Integrated Mill | Integrated Mill | |||||||
| HR | CR | HR | CR | HR | CR | ||||
| Operating assumptions | |||||||||
| Labor / hour | $20.00 | $20.00 | $23.50 | $23.50 | $23.50 | $23.50 | |||
| Scrap / ton | $90.00 | $90.00 | $80.00 | $80.00 | $80.00 | $80.00 | |||
| Man hours / ton | 1.75 | 2.65 | 2.85 | 4.50 | 3.90 | 5.85 | |||
| Capacity Utilization | 90.00% | 90.00% | 90.00% | 90.00% | 75.00% | 75.00% | |||
| Operation costs / ton | |||||||||
| Labor | $35.00 | $53.00 | $67.00 | $105.50 | $91.50 | $141.00 | |||
| Ore | 0 | 0 | 51 | 54 | 52 | 56 | |||
| Coal | 0 | 0 | 35 | 37.5 | 38 | 40.5 | |||
| Energy | 24 | 38 | 9 | 23 | 9.5 | 25 | |||
| Scrap | 100 | 102 | 13.5 | 9.5 | 19.5 | 15.5 | |||
| Materials and supplies | 56 | 72.5 | 71 | 93 | 72.5 | 95.5 | |||
| Maintenance & repairs | 10 | 17.5 | 15 | 26.5 | 17 | 29.5 | |||
| Total costs / ton | $225.00 | $283.00 | $261.50 | $349.00 | $300.00 | $403.00 | |||
| Revenue / ton | $306.50 | $390.50 | $326.00 | $454.50 | $325.00 | $453.00 | |||
Summary
| CF analysis- thin slab | ||||
| Original | Adj. 1 (price growth rate) | Adj. 2 (Operating Cost Growth Rate) | Adj. 3 (discount rate decreases) | |
| Year 5 CF: | 71.78 | 104.84 | 87.26 | 71.78 |
| Year 5 Assets: | 196 | 196 | 196 | 196 |
| Year 5 ROA: | 36.62% | 53.49% | 44.52% | 36.62% |
CF analysis-thin slab
| Assumptions: | ||||||||||||||
| Annual growth rate of price of steel | 4.00% | 6.84% | (historical) | |||||||||||
| Annual growth rate of operating costs | 4.00% | |||||||||||||
| Tax rate | 35.00% | |||||||||||||
| Discount rate | 15.00% | |||||||||||||
| Thin Slab Minimill | ||||||||||||||
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | ||
| 1986 | 1987 | 1988 | 1989 | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | ||
| Capacity(million of tons of steel) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||
| Shipments (12A) | ||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12A) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12A) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.175 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | |
| Revenue / ton | ||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) | 306.5 | 318.76 | 331.51 | 344.77 | 358.56 | 372.90 | 387.82 | 403.33 | 419.47 | 436.25 | 453.69 | 471.84 | 490.72 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) | 390.5 | 406.12 | 422.36 | 439.26 | 456.83 | 475.10 | 494.11 | 513.87 | 534.43 | 555.80 | 578.04 | 601.16 | 625.20 | |
| Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton) | ||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 86.19 | 179.28 | 186.45 | 193.91 | 201.67 | 209.73 | 218.12 | 226.85 | 235.92 | 245.36 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 76.87 | 159.89 | 166.29 | 172.94 | 179.85 | 187.05 | 194.53 | 202.31 | 210.40 | 218.82 | |
| Operating costs / ton | ||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) | 225 | 234.00 | 243.36 | 253.09 | 263.22 | 273.75 | 284.70 | 296.08 | 307.93 | 320.25 | 333.05 | 346.38 | 360.23 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) | 283 | 294.32 | 306.09 | 318.34 | 331.07 | 344.31 | 358.09 | 372.41 | 387.31 | 402.80 | 418.91 | 435.67 | 453.09 | |
| Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton) | ||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 63.27 | 131.61 | 136.87 | 142.35 | 148.04 | 153.96 | 160.12 | 166.53 | 173.19 | 180.12 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 55.71 | 115.87 | 120.51 | 125.33 | 130.34 | 135.56 | 140.98 | 146.62 | 152.48 | 158.58 | |
| Depreciate over 10 years | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | |
| Income | ||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 22.92 | 47.67 | 49.58 | 51.56 | 53.62 | 55.77 | 58.00 | 60.32 | 62.73 | 65.24 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 21.16 | 44.02 | 45.78 | 47.61 | 49.51 | 51.49 | 53.55 | 55.69 | 57.92 | 60.24 | |
| Total income | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $16.08 | $63.69 | $67.36 | $71.17 | $75.14 | $79.26 | $83.55 | $88.01 | $92.65 | $97.48 | |
| Taxes | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $5.63 | $22.29 | $23.57 | $24.91 | $26.30 | $27.74 | $29.24 | $30.80 | $32.43 | $34.12 | |
| Income after taxes | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $10.45 | $41.40 | $43.78 | $46.26 | $48.84 | $51.52 | $54.31 | $57.21 | $60.23 | $63.36 | |
| Add back depreciation | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | |
| Subtract capital expenditures | -$280.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | |
| Subtract startup costs | 30.00 | |||||||||||||
| Subtract working capital costs | 30.00 | |||||||||||||
| Cash flow | -280.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 98.45 | 69.40 | 71.78 | 74.26 | 76.84 | 79.52 | 82.31 | 85.21 | 88.23 | 91.36 | |
| Internal rate of return (IRR) | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | |
| Discounted cash flow | $0.00 | $0.00 | $85.61 | $60.35 | $62.42 | $64.57 | $66.82 | $69.15 | $71.57 | $74.09 | $76.72 | $79.45 | ||
| Sum of discounted cash flow | $710.74 | |||||||||||||
| Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5? | Year 5 CF: | 71.78 | ||||||||||||
| Year 5 Assets: | 196.00 | |||||||||||||
| Year 5 ROA: | 36.62% | |||||||||||||
CF analysis-thin slab - Adj #1
| Assumptions: | ||||||||||||||
| Annual growth rate of price of steel | 6.84% | 6.84% | (historical) | |||||||||||
| Annual growth rate of operating costs | 4.00% | |||||||||||||
| Tax rate | 35.00% | |||||||||||||
| Discount rate | 15.00% | |||||||||||||
| Thin Slab Minimill | ||||||||||||||
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | ||
| 1986 | 1987 | 1988 | 1989 | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | ||
| Capacity(million of tons of steel) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||
| Shipments (12A) | ||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12A) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12A) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.175 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | |
| Revenue / ton | ||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) | 306.5 | 327.4646 | 349.86 | 373.79 | 399.36 | 426.68 | 455.86 | 487.04 | 520.36 | 555.95 | 593.98 | 634.60 | 678.01 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) | 390.5 | 417.2102 | 445.75 | 476.24 | 508.81 | 543.61 | 580.80 | 620.52 | 662.97 | 708.31 | 756.76 | 808.53 | 863.83 | |
| Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton) | ||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 93.45 | 199.68 | 213.34 | 227.93 | 243.52 | 260.18 | 277.97 | 296.99 | 317.30 | 339.01 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 83.34 | 178.08 | 190.26 | 203.28 | 217.18 | 232.04 | 247.91 | 264.87 | 282.98 | 302.34 | |
| Operating costs / ton | ||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) | 225 | 234.00 | 243.36 | 253.09 | 263.22 | 273.75 | 284.70 | 296.08 | 307.93 | 320.25 | 333.05 | 346.38 | 360.23 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) | 283 | 294.32 | 306.09 | 318.34 | 331.07 | 344.31 | 358.09 | 372.41 | 387.31 | 402.80 | 418.91 | 435.67 | 453.09 | |
| Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton) | ||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 63.27 | 131.61 | 136.87 | 142.35 | 148.04 | 153.96 | 160.12 | 166.53 | 173.19 | 180.12 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 55.71 | 115.87 | 120.51 | 125.33 | 130.34 | 135.56 | 140.98 | 146.62 | 152.48 | 158.58 | |
| Depreciate over 10 years | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | |
| Income | ||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 30.17 | 68.07 | 76.47 | 85.58 | 95.48 | 106.21 | 117.85 | 130.46 | 144.11 | 158.89 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 27.63 | 62.21 | 69.76 | 77.95 | 86.84 | 96.48 | 106.93 | 118.25 | 130.50 | 143.76 | |
| Total income | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $29.81 | $102.28 | $118.22 | $135.53 | $154.32 | $174.70 | $196.78 | $220.71 | $246.61 | $274.65 | |
| Taxes | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $10.43 | $35.80 | $41.38 | $47.44 | $54.01 | $61.14 | $68.87 | $77.25 | $86.32 | $96.13 | |
| Income after taxes | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $19.37 | $66.48 | $76.84 | $88.10 | $100.31 | $113.55 | $127.91 | $143.46 | $160.30 | $178.52 | |
| Add back depreciation | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | |
| Subtract capital expenditures | -$280.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | |
| Subtract startup costs | 30.00 | |||||||||||||
| Subtract working capital costs | 30.00 | |||||||||||||
| Cash flow | -280.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 107.37 | 94.48 | 104.84 | 116.10 | 128.31 | 141.55 | 155.91 | 171.46 | 188.30 | 206.52 | |
| Internal rate of return (IRR) | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | |
| Discounted cash flow | $0.00 | $0.00 | $93.37 | $82.16 | $91.17 | $100.95 | $111.57 | $123.09 | $135.57 | $149.10 | $163.74 | $179.58 | ||
| Sum of discounted cash flow | $1,230.30 | |||||||||||||
| Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5? | Year 5 CF: | 104.84 | ||||||||||||
| Year 5 Assets: | 196.00 | |||||||||||||
| Year 5 ROA: | 53.49% | |||||||||||||
CF analysis-thin slab 1-Adj #2
| Assumptions: | ||||||||||||||
| Annual growth rate of price of steel | 4.00% | 6.84% | (historical) | |||||||||||
| Annual growth rate of operating costs | 2.00% | |||||||||||||
| Tax rate | 35.00% | |||||||||||||
| Discount rate | 15.00% | |||||||||||||
| Thin Slab Minimill | ||||||||||||||
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | ||
| 1986 | 1987 | 1988 | 1989 | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | ||
| Capacity(million of tons of steel) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||
| Shipments (12A) | ||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12A) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12A) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.175 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | |
| Revenue / ton | ||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) | 306.5 | 318.76 | 331.51 | 344.77 | 358.56 | 372.90 | 387.82 | 403.33 | 419.47 | 436.25 | 453.69 | 471.84 | 490.72 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) | 390.5 | 406.12 | 422.36 | 439.26 | 456.83 | 475.10 | 494.11 | 513.87 | 534.43 | 555.80 | 578.04 | 601.16 | 625.20 | |
| Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton) | ||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 86.19 | 179.28 | 186.45 | 193.91 | 201.67 | 209.73 | 218.12 | 226.85 | 235.92 | 245.36 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 76.87 | 159.89 | 166.29 | 172.94 | 179.85 | 187.05 | 194.53 | 202.31 | 210.40 | 218.82 | |
| Operating costs / ton | ||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) | 225 | 229.50 | 234.09 | 238.77 | 243.55 | 248.42 | 253.39 | 258.45 | 263.62 | 268.90 | 274.27 | 279.76 | 285.35 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) | 283 | 288.66 | 294.43 | 300.32 | 306.33 | 312.45 | 318.70 | 325.08 | 331.58 | 338.21 | 344.98 | 351.87 | 358.91 | |
| Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton) | ||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 59.69 | 121.77 | 124.21 | 126.69 | 129.23 | 131.81 | 134.45 | 137.14 | 139.88 | 142.68 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 52.56 | 107.21 | 109.36 | 111.55 | 113.78 | 116.05 | 118.37 | 120.74 | 123.16 | 125.62 | |
| Depreciate over 10 years | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | |
| Income | ||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 26.50 | 57.51 | 62.24 | 67.22 | 72.44 | 77.92 | 83.67 | 89.71 | 96.04 | 102.68 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 24.31 | 52.68 | 56.93 | 61.39 | 66.08 | 71.00 | 76.16 | 81.57 | 87.25 | 93.20 | |
| Total income | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $22.81 | $82.18 | $91.17 | $100.61 | $110.52 | $120.92 | $131.83 | $143.28 | $155.29 | $167.88 | |
| Taxes | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $7.98 | $28.76 | $31.91 | $35.21 | $38.68 | $42.32 | $46.14 | $50.15 | $54.35 | $58.76 | |
| Income after taxes | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $14.83 | $53.42 | $59.26 | $65.40 | $71.84 | $78.60 | $85.69 | $93.13 | $100.94 | $109.12 | |
| Add back depreciation | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | |
| Subtract capital expenditures | -$280.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | |
| Subtract startup costs | 30.00 | |||||||||||||
| Subtract working capital costs | 30.00 | |||||||||||||
| Cash flow | -280.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 102.83 | 81.42 | 87.26 | 93.40 | 99.84 | 106.60 | 113.69 | 121.13 | 128.94 | 137.12 | |
| Internal rate of return (IRR) | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | |
| Discounted cash flow | $0.00 | $0.00 | $89.42 | $70.80 | $75.88 | $81.21 | $86.81 | $92.69 | $98.86 | $105.33 | $112.12 | $119.24 | ||
| Sum of discounted cash flow | $932.37 | |||||||||||||
| Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5? | Year 5 CF: | 87.26 | ||||||||||||
| Year 5 Assets: | 196.00 | |||||||||||||
| Year 5 ROA: | 44.52% | |||||||||||||
CF analysis-thin slab- Adj #3
| Assumptions: | ||||||||||||||
| Annual growth rate of price of steel | 4.00% | 6.84% | (historical) | |||||||||||
| Annual growth rate of operating costs | 4.00% | |||||||||||||
| Tax rate | 35.00% | |||||||||||||
| Discount rate | 10.00% | |||||||||||||
| Thin Slab Minimill | ||||||||||||||
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | ||
| 1986 | 1987 | 1988 | 1989 | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | ||
| Capacity(million of tons of steel) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||
| Shipments (12A) | ||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12A) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12A) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.175 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | |
| Revenue / ton | ||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) | 306.5 | 318.76 | 331.51 | 344.77 | 358.56 | 372.90 | 387.82 | 403.33 | 419.47 | 436.25 | 453.69 | 471.84 | 490.72 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) | 390.5 | 406.12 | 422.36 | 439.26 | 456.83 | 475.10 | 494.11 | 513.87 | 534.43 | 555.80 | 578.04 | 601.16 | 625.20 | |
| Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton) | ||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 86.19 | 179.28 | 186.45 | 193.91 | 201.67 | 209.73 | 218.12 | 226.85 | 235.92 | 245.36 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 76.87 | 159.89 | 166.29 | 172.94 | 179.85 | 187.05 | 194.53 | 202.31 | 210.40 | 218.82 | |
| Operating costs / ton | ||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) | 225 | 234.00 | 243.36 | 253.09 | 263.22 | 273.75 | 284.70 | 296.08 | 307.93 | 320.25 | 333.05 | 346.38 | 360.23 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) | 283 | 294.32 | 306.09 | 318.34 | 331.07 | 344.31 | 358.09 | 372.41 | 387.31 | 402.80 | 418.91 | 435.67 | 453.09 | |
| Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton) | ||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 63.27 | 131.61 | 136.87 | 142.35 | 148.04 | 153.96 | 160.12 | 166.53 | 173.19 | 180.12 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 55.71 | 115.87 | 120.51 | 125.33 | 130.34 | 135.56 | 140.98 | 146.62 | 152.48 | 158.58 | |
| Depreciate over 10 years | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | |
| Income | ||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 22.92 | 47.67 | 49.58 | 51.56 | 53.62 | 55.77 | 58.00 | 60.32 | 62.73 | 65.24 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 21.16 | 44.02 | 45.78 | 47.61 | 49.51 | 51.49 | 53.55 | 55.69 | 57.92 | 60.24 | |
| Total income | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $16.08 | $63.69 | $67.36 | $71.17 | $75.14 | $79.26 | $83.55 | $88.01 | $92.65 | $97.48 | |
| Taxes | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $5.63 | $22.29 | $23.57 | $24.91 | $26.30 | $27.74 | $29.24 | $30.80 | $32.43 | $34.12 | |
| Income after taxes | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $10.45 | $41.40 | $43.78 | $46.26 | $48.84 | $51.52 | $54.31 | $57.21 | $60.23 | $63.36 | |
| Add back depreciation | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | $28.00 | |
| Subtract capital expenditures | -$280.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | |
| Subtract startup costs | 30.00 | |||||||||||||
| Subtract working capital costs | 30.00 | |||||||||||||
| Cash flow | -280.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 98.45 | 69.40 | 71.78 | 74.26 | 76.84 | 79.52 | 82.31 | 85.21 | 88.23 | 91.36 | |
| Internal rate of return (IRR) | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | |
| Discounted cash flow | $0.00 | $0.00 | $89.50 | $63.09 | $65.26 | $67.51 | $69.85 | $72.29 | $74.83 | $77.46 | $80.21 | $83.06 | ||
| Sum of discounted cash flow | $743.05 | |||||||||||||
| Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5? | Year 5 CF: | 71.78 | ||||||||||||
| Year 5 Assets: | 196.00 | |||||||||||||
| Year 5 ROA: | 36.62% | |||||||||||||
CF analysis - Modernize
| Assumptions: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Annual growth rate of price of steel | 4.00% | 6.84% | (historical) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Annual growth rate of operating costs | 4.00% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tax rate | 35.00% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Discount rate | 15.00% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Modernized integrated mill | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | ||
| 1986 | 1987 | 1988 | 1989 | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | ||
| Capacity(million of tons of steel) | 0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | |
| Shipments (12A) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12A) | 0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12A) | 0 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | |
| Revenue / ton | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) | 326.00 | 339.04 | 352.60 | 366.71 | 381.37 | 396.63 | 412.49 | 428.99 | 446.15 | 464.00 | 482.56 | 501.86 | 521.94 | 542.81 | 564.53 | 587.11 | 610.59 | 635.02 | 660.42 | 686.83 | 714.31 | 742.88 | 772.59 | 803.50 | 835.64 | 869.06 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) | 454.50 | 472.68 | 491.59 | 511.25 | 531.70 | 552.97 | 575.09 | 598.09 | 622.01 | 646.90 | 672.77 | 699.68 | 727.67 | 756.78 | 787.05 | 818.53 | 851.27 | 885.32 | 920.73 | 957.56 | 995.87 | 1035.70 | 1077.13 | 1120.21 | 1165.02 | 1211.62 | |
| Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) | 0.00 | 711.98 | 740.46 | 770.08 | 800.89 | 832.92 | 866.24 | 900.89 | 936.92 | 974.40 | 1013.38 | 1053.91 | 1096.07 | 1139.91 | 1185.51 | 1232.93 | 1282.24 | 1333.53 | 1386.87 | 1442.35 | 1500.04 | 1560.04 | 1622.45 | 1687.34 | 1754.84 | 1825.03 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) | 0.00 | 638.12 | 663.64 | 690.19 | 717.80 | 746.51 | 776.37 | 807.42 | 839.72 | 873.31 | 908.24 | 944.57 | 982.35 | 1021.65 | 1062.51 | 1105.01 | 1149.21 | 1195.18 | 1242.99 | 1292.71 | 1344.42 | 1398.20 | 1454.12 | 1512.29 | 1572.78 | 1635.69 | |
| Operating costs / ton | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) | 261.50 | 271.96 | 282.84 | 294.15 | 305.92 | 318.15 | 330.88 | 344.12 | 357.88 | 372.20 | 387.08 | 402.57 | 418.67 | 435.42 | 452.83 | 470.95 | 489.78 | 509.38 | 529.75 | 550.94 | 572.98 | 595.90 | 619.73 | 644.52 | 670.30 | 697.12 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) | 349.00 | 362.96 | 377.48 | 392.58 | 408.28 | 424.61 | 441.60 | 459.26 | 477.63 | 496.74 | 516.61 | 537.27 | 558.76 | 581.11 | 604.36 | 628.53 | 653.67 | 679.82 | 707.01 | 735.29 | 764.70 | 795.29 | 827.10 | 860.19 | 894.59 | 930.38 | |
| Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) | 0.00 | 571.12 | 593.96 | 617.72 | 642.43 | 668.12 | 694.85 | 722.64 | 751.55 | 781.61 | 812.88 | 845.39 | 879.21 | 914.38 | 950.95 | 988.99 | 1028.55 | 1069.69 | 1112.48 | 1156.98 | 1203.26 | 1251.39 | 1301.44 | 1353.50 | 1407.64 | 1463.94 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) | 0.00 | 490.00 | 509.60 | 529.98 | 551.18 | 573.23 | 596.16 | 620.00 | 644.80 | 670.59 | 697.42 | 725.31 | 754.33 | 784.50 | 815.88 | 848.51 | 882.46 | 917.75 | 954.46 | 992.64 | 1032.35 | 1073.64 | 1116.59 | 1161.25 | 1207.70 | 1256.01 | |
| Depreciate over 25 years | 0 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | |
| Income | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) | 0.00 | 140.87 | 146.50 | 152.36 | 158.46 | 164.80 | 171.39 | 178.24 | 185.37 | 192.79 | 200.50 | 208.52 | 216.86 | 225.53 | 234.56 | 243.94 | 253.70 | 263.84 | 274.40 | 285.37 | 296.79 | 308.66 | 321.01 | 333.85 | 347.20 | 361.09 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) | 0.00 | 148.12 | 154.05 | 160.21 | 166.62 | 173.28 | 180.21 | 187.42 | 194.92 | 202.72 | 210.82 | 219.26 | 228.03 | 237.15 | 246.63 | 256.50 | 266.76 | 277.43 | 288.53 | 300.07 | 312.07 | 324.55 | 337.54 | 351.04 | 365.08 | 379.68 | |
| Total income | 214.07 | 225.63 | 237.65 | 250.15 | 263.16 | 276.68 | 290.74 | 305.37 | 320.58 | 336.40 | 352.86 | 369.97 | 387.76 | 406.27 | 425.52 | 445.53 | 466.35 | 488.00 | 510.52 | 533.94 | 558.29 | 583.62 | 609.96 | 637.36 | 665.85 | ||
| Taxes | 74.92 | 78.97 | 83.18 | 87.55 | 92.11 | 96.84 | 101.76 | 106.88 | 112.20 | 117.74 | 123.50 | 129.49 | 135.72 | 142.19 | 148.93 | 155.94 | 163.22 | 170.80 | 178.68 | 186.88 | 195.40 | 204.27 | 213.49 | 223.08 | 233.05 | ||
| Income after Taxes | 139.15 | 146.66 | 154.47 | 162.60 | 171.05 | 179.84 | 188.98 | 198.49 | 208.38 | 218.66 | 229.36 | 240.48 | 252.05 | 264.08 | 276.59 | 289.60 | 303.13 | 317.20 | 331.84 | 347.06 | 362.89 | 379.35 | 396.48 | 414.28 | 432.80 | ||
| Add back depreciation | 0 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | |
| Subtract capital expenditures | -1,873 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cash flow | -1,873 | 214.07 | 221.58 | 229.39 | 237.52 | 245.97 | 254.76 | 263.90 | 273.41 | 283.30 | 293.58 | 304.28 | 315.40 | 326.97 | 339.00 | 351.51 | 364.52 | 378.05 | 392.12 | 406.76 | 421.98 | 437.81 | 454.27 | 471.40 | 489.20 | 507.72 | |
| Internal rate of return (IRR) | 14% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Discounted cash flow | -$1,873.00 | $186.14 | $192.68 | $199.47 | $206.54 | $213.89 | $221.53 | $229.48 | $237.75 | $246.35 | $255.29 | $264.59 | $274.26 | $284.32 | $294.78 | $305.66 | $316.97 | $328.74 | $340.98 | $353.70 | $366.94 | $380.70 | $395.02 | $409.91 | $425.39 | $441.50 | |
| n years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | |
| Sum of discounted cash flow | $5,499.58 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5? | Year 5 CF: | 245.97 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Year 5 Assets: | 1498.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Year 5 ROA: | 16.42% | 0.3283133027 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
CF analysis - Unmodernized
| Assumptions: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Annual growth rate of price of steel | 4.00% | 6.84% | (historical) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Annual growth rate of operating costs | 4.00% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tax rate | 35.00% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Discount rate | 15.00% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Unmodernized integrated mill | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | ||
| 1986 | 1987 | 1988 | 1989 | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | ||
| Capacity(million of tons of steel) | 0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | |
| Shipments (12A) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) | 0 | 1.68 | 1.68 | 1.68 | 1.68 | 1.68 | 1.68 | 1.68 | 1.68 | 1.68 | 1.68 | 1.68 | 1.68 | 1.68 | 1.68 | 1.68 | 1.68 | 1.68 | 1.68 | 1.68 | 1.68 | 1.68 | 1.68 | 1.68 | 1.68 | 1.68 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) | 0 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | |
| Revenue / ton | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) | 325.00 | 338.00 | 351.52 | 365.58 | 380.20 | 395.41 | 411.23 | 427.68 | 444.78 | 462.58 | 481.08 | 500.32 | 520.34 | 541.15 | 562.79 | 585.31 | 608.72 | 633.07 | 658.39 | 684.73 | 712.12 | 740.60 | 770.22 | 801.03 | 833.07 | 866.40 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) | 453.00 | 471.12 | 489.96 | 509.56 | 529.95 | 551.14 | 573.19 | 596.12 | 619.96 | 644.76 | 670.55 | 697.37 | 725.27 | 754.28 | 784.45 | 815.83 | 848.46 | 882.40 | 917.69 | 954.40 | 992.58 | 1032.28 | 1073.57 | 1116.52 | 1161.18 | 1207.62 | |
| Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) | 0.00 | 567.84 | 590.55 | 614.18 | 638.74 | 664.29 | 690.86 | 718.50 | 747.24 | 777.13 | 808.21 | 840.54 | 874.16 | 909.13 | 945.50 | 983.32 | 1022.65 | 1063.55 | 1106.10 | 1150.34 | 1196.35 | 1244.21 | 1293.98 | 1345.73 | 1399.56 | 1455.55 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) | 0.00 | 508.81 | 529.16 | 550.33 | 572.34 | 595.24 | 619.04 | 643.81 | 669.56 | 696.34 | 724.19 | 753.16 | 783.29 | 814.62 | 847.21 | 881.09 | 916.34 | 952.99 | 991.11 | 1030.75 | 1071.99 | 1114.86 | 1159.46 | 1205.84 | 1254.07 | 1304.23 | |
| Operating costs / ton | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) | 300 | 312.00 | 324.48 | 337.46 | 350.96 | 365.00 | 379.60 | 394.78 | 410.57 | 426.99 | 444.07 | 461.84 | 480.31 | 499.52 | 519.50 | 540.28 | 561.89 | 584.37 | 607.74 | 632.05 | 657.34 | 683.63 | 710.98 | 739.41 | 768.99 | 799.75 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) | 403 | 419.12 | 435.88 | 453.32 | 471.45 | 490.31 | 509.92 | 530.32 | 551.53 | 573.59 | 596.54 | 620.40 | 645.22 | 671.02 | 697.87 | 725.78 | 754.81 | 785.00 | 816.40 | 849.06 | 883.02 | 918.34 | 955.08 | 993.28 | 1033.01 | 1074.33 | |
| Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) | 0.00 | 524.16 | 545.13 | 566.93 | 589.61 | 613.19 | 637.72 | 663.23 | 689.76 | 717.35 | 746.04 | 775.88 | 806.92 | 839.20 | 872.76 | 907.68 | 943.98 | 981.74 | 1021.01 | 1061.85 | 1104.33 | 1148.50 | 1194.44 | 1242.22 | 1291.91 | 1343.58 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) | 0.00 | 452.65 | 470.76 | 489.59 | 509.17 | 529.54 | 550.72 | 572.75 | 595.66 | 619.48 | 644.26 | 670.03 | 696.83 | 724.71 | 753.69 | 783.84 | 815.20 | 847.80 | 881.72 | 916.99 | 953.66 | 991.81 | 1031.48 | 1072.74 | 1115.65 | 1160.28 | |
| Depreciate over 25 years (no expenditure to dep.) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Income | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) | 0.00 | 43.68 | 45.43 | 47.24 | 49.13 | 51.10 | 53.14 | 55.27 | 57.48 | 59.78 | 62.17 | 64.66 | 67.24 | 69.93 | 72.73 | 75.64 | 78.67 | 81.81 | 85.08 | 88.49 | 92.03 | 95.71 | 99.54 | 103.52 | 107.66 | 111.97 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) | 0.00 | 56.16 | 58.41 | 60.74 | 63.17 | 65.70 | 68.33 | 71.06 | 73.90 | 76.86 | 79.93 | 83.13 | 86.46 | 89.91 | 93.51 | 97.25 | 101.14 | 105.19 | 109.39 | 113.77 | 118.32 | 123.05 | 127.98 | 133.09 | 138.42 | 143.96 | |
| Total income | 0.00 | 99.84 | 103.83 | 107.99 | 112.31 | 116.80 | 121.47 | 126.33 | 131.38 | 136.64 | 142.10 | 147.79 | 153.70 | 159.85 | 166.24 | 172.89 | 179.81 | 187.00 | 194.48 | 202.26 | 210.35 | 218.76 | 227.51 | 236.61 | 246.08 | 255.92 | |
| Taxes | 0 | 34.94 | 36.34 | 37.80 | 39.31 | 40.88 | 42.51 | 44.22 | 45.98 | 47.82 | 49.74 | 51.73 | 53.79 | 55.95 | 58.18 | 60.51 | 62.93 | 65.45 | 68.07 | 70.79 | 73.62 | 76.57 | 79.63 | 82.81 | 86.13 | 89.57 | |
| Total Income after Tax | 64.90 | 67.49 | 70.19 | 73.00 | 75.92 | 78.96 | 82.11 | 85.40 | 88.81 | 92.37 | 96.06 | 99.90 | 103.90 | 108.06 | 112.38 | 116.87 | 121.55 | 126.41 | 131.47 | 136.73 | 142.20 | 147.88 | 153.80 | 159.95 | 166.35 | ||
| Add back depreciation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Subtract capital expenditures | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cash flow | 0 | 64.90 | 67.49 | 70.19 | 73.00 | 75.92 | 78.96 | 82.11 | 85.40 | 88.81 | 92.37 | 96.06 | 99.90 | 103.90 | 108.06 | 112.38 | 116.87 | 121.55 | 126.41 | 131.47 | 136.73 | 142.20 | 147.88 | 153.80 | 159.95 | 166.35 | |
| IRR | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Discounted cash flow | $0.00 | $56.43 | $58.69 | $61.04 | $63.48 | $66.02 | $68.66 | $71.40 | $74.26 | $77.23 | $80.32 | $83.53 | $86.87 | $90.35 | $93.96 | $97.72 | $101.63 | $105.69 | $109.92 | $114.32 | $118.89 | $123.65 | $128.59 | $133.74 | $139.09 | $144.65 | |
| n | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | |
| Sum of discounted cash flow | $2,350.13 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5? | Year 5 CF: | 75.92 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Year 5 Assets: | 0.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Year 5 ROA: | N/A | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
CF analysis - Formerly Unmodern
| Assumptions: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Annual growth rate of price of steel | 4.00% | 6.84% | (historical) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Annual growth rate of operating costs | 4.00% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tax rate | 35.00% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Discount rate | 15.00% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Unmodernized integrated mill | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | ||
| 1986 | 1987 | 1988 | 1989 | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | ||
| Capacity(million of tons of steel) | 0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | |
| Shipments (12A) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) | 0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) | 0 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | |
| Revenue / ton | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) | 325.00 | 338.00 | 351.52 | 365.58 | 380.20 | 395.41 | 411.23 | 427.68 | 444.78 | 462.58 | 481.08 | 500.32 | 520.34 | 541.15 | 562.79 | 585.31 | 608.72 | 633.07 | 658.39 | 684.73 | 712.12 | 740.60 | 770.22 | 801.03 | 833.07 | 866.40 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) | 453.00 | 471.12 | 489.96 | 509.56 | 529.95 | 551.14 | 573.19 | 596.12 | 619.96 | 644.76 | 670.55 | 697.37 | 725.27 | 754.28 | 784.45 | 815.83 | 848.46 | 882.40 | 917.69 | 954.40 | 992.58 | 1032.28 | 1073.57 | 1116.52 | 1161.18 | 1207.62 | |
| Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) | 0.00 | 709.80 | 738.19 | 767.72 | 798.43 | 830.37 | 863.58 | 898.12 | 934.05 | 971.41 | 1010.27 | 1050.68 | 1092.70 | 1136.41 | 1181.87 | 1229.14 | 1278.31 | 1329.44 | 1382.62 | 1437.92 | 1495.44 | 1555.26 | 1617.47 | 1682.17 | 1749.46 | 1819.43 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) | 0.00 | 636.01 | 661.45 | 687.91 | 715.43 | 744.04 | 773.81 | 804.76 | 836.95 | 870.43 | 905.24 | 941.45 | 979.11 | 1018.28 | 1059.01 | 1101.37 | 1145.42 | 1191.24 | 1238.89 | 1288.44 | 1339.98 | 1393.58 | 1449.32 | 1507.30 | 1567.59 | 1630.29 | |
| Operating costs / ton | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) | 261.5 | 271.96 | 282.84 | 294.15 | 305.92 | 318.15 | 330.88 | 344.12 | 357.88 | 372.20 | 387.08 | 402.57 | 418.67 | 435.42 | 452.83 | 470.95 | 489.78 | 509.38 | 529.75 | 550.94 | 572.98 | 595.90 | 619.73 | 644.52 | 670.30 | 697.12 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) | 349.00 | 362.96 | 377.48 | 392.58 | 408.28 | 424.61 | 441.60 | 459.26 | 477.63 | 496.74 | 516.61 | 537.27 | 558.76 | 581.11 | 604.36 | 628.53 | 653.67 | 679.82 | 707.01 | 735.29 | 764.70 | 795.29 | 827.10 | 860.19 | 894.59 | 930.38 | |
| Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) | 0.00 | 571.12 | 593.96 | 617.72 | 642.43 | 668.12 | 694.85 | 722.64 | 751.55 | 781.61 | 812.88 | 845.39 | 879.21 | 914.38 | 950.95 | 988.99 | 1028.55 | 1069.69 | 1112.48 | 1156.98 | 1203.26 | 1251.39 | 1301.44 | 1353.50 | 1407.64 | 1463.94 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) | 0.00 | 490.00 | 509.60 | 529.98 | 551.18 | 573.23 | 596.16 | 620.00 | 644.80 | 670.59 | 697.42 | 725.31 | 754.33 | 784.50 | 815.88 | 848.51 | 882.46 | 917.75 | 954.46 | 992.64 | 1032.35 | 1073.64 | 1116.59 | 1161.25 | 1207.70 | 1256.01 | |
| Depreciate over 25 years (no expenditure to dep.) | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | ||
| Income | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| - Hot-rolled sheets (HR) | 0.00 | 138.68 | 144.23 | 150.00 | 156.00 | 162.24 | 168.73 | 175.48 | 182.50 | 189.80 | 197.39 | 205.29 | 213.50 | 222.04 | 230.92 | 240.16 | 249.76 | 259.75 | 270.14 | 280.95 | 292.19 | 303.87 | 316.03 | 328.67 | 341.82 | 355.49 | |
| - Cold-rolled sheets (CR) | 0.00 | 146.02 | 151.86 | 157.93 | 164.25 | 170.82 | 177.65 | 184.76 | 192.15 | 199.83 | 207.83 | 216.14 | 224.78 | 233.78 | 243.13 | 252.85 | 262.97 | 273.49 | 284.42 | 295.80 | 307.63 | 319.94 | 332.74 | 346.05 | 359.89 | 374.28 | |
| Total income | 0.00 | 284.70 | 296.09 | 307.93 | 320.25 | 333.06 | 346.38 | 360.24 | 374.65 | 389.63 | 405.22 | 421.43 | 438.28 | 455.81 | 474.05 | 493.01 | 512.73 | 533.24 | 554.57 | 576.75 | 599.82 | 623.81 | 648.77 | 674.72 | 701.70 | 729.77 | |
| Taxes | 0 | 99.65 | 103.63 | 107.78 | 112.09 | 116.57 | 121.23 | 126.08 | 131.13 | 136.37 | 141.83 | 147.50 | 153.40 | 159.53 | 165.92 | 172.55 | 179.46 | 186.63 | 194.10 | 201.86 | 209.94 | 218.33 | 227.07 | 236.15 | 245.60 | 255.42 | |
| Total Income after Tax | 185.06 | 192.46 | 200.16 | 208.16 | 216.49 | 225.15 | 234.15 | 243.52 | 253.26 | 263.39 | 273.93 | 284.88 | 296.28 | 308.13 | 320.46 | 333.27 | 346.60 | 360.47 | 374.89 | 389.88 | 405.48 | 421.70 | 438.57 | 456.11 | 474.35 | ||
| Add back depreciation | 0 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | 74.92 | |
| Subtract capital expenditures | -1873 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cash flow | -1873 | 259.98 | 267.38 | 275.08 | 283.08 | 291.41 | 300.07 | 309.07 | 318.44 | 328.18 | 338.31 | 348.85 | 359.80 | 371.20 | 383.05 | 395.38 | 408.19 | 421.52 | 435.39 | 449.81 | 464.80 | 480.40 | 496.62 | 513.49 | 531.03 | 549.27 | |
| IRR | 16% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Discounted cash flow | -$1,628.70 | $226.07 | $232.50 | $239.20 | $246.16 | $253.40 | $260.93 | $268.76 | $276.90 | $285.37 | $294.18 | $303.34 | $312.87 | $322.78 | $333.09 | $343.80 | $354.95 | $366.54 | $378.60 | $391.14 | $404.18 | $417.74 | $431.84 | $446.51 | $461.76 | $477.63 | |
| n | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | |
| Sum of discounted cash flow | $6,701.55 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5? | Year 5 CF: | 291.41 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Year 5 Assets: | 1,498.40 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Year 5 ROA: | 0.1944795621 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||