Nucor Case

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Operating assumptions

Exhibit 12B
Modernized Unmodernized
Thin-slab Minimill Integrated Mill Integrated Mill
HR CR HR CR HR CR
Operating assumptions
Labor / hour $20.00 $20.00 $23.50 $23.50 $23.50 $23.50
Scrap / ton $90.00 $90.00 $80.00 $80.00 $80.00 $80.00
Man hours / ton 1.75 2.65 2.85 4.50 3.90 5.85
Capacity Utilization 90.00% 90.00% 90.00% 90.00% 75.00% 75.00%
Operation costs / ton
Labor $35.00 $53.00 $67.00 $105.50 $91.50 $141.00
Ore 0 0 51 54 52 56
Coal 0 0 35 37.5 38 40.5
Energy 24 38 9 23 9.5 25
Scrap 100 102 13.5 9.5 19.5 15.5
Materials and supplies 56 72.5 71 93 72.5 95.5
Maintenance & repairs 10 17.5 15 26.5 17 29.5
Total costs / ton $225.00 $283.00 $261.50 $349.00 $300.00 $403.00
Revenue / ton $306.50 $390.50 $326.00 $454.50 $325.00 $453.00

Summary

CF analysis- thin slab
Original Adj. 1 (price growth rate) Adj. 2 (Operating Cost Growth Rate) Adj. 3 (discount rate decreases)
Year 5 CF: 71.78 104.84 87.26 71.78
Year 5 Assets: 196 196 196 196
Year 5 ROA: 36.62% 53.49% 44.52% 36.62%

CF analysis-thin slab

Assumptions:
Annual growth rate of price of steel 4.00% 6.84% (historical)
Annual growth rate of operating costs 4.00%
Tax rate 35.00%
Discount rate 15.00%
Thin Slab Minimill
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Capacity(million of tons of steel) 0 0 0
Shipments (12A)
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12A) 0 0 0 0.25 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12A) 0 0 0 0.175 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35
Revenue / ton
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 306.5 318.76 331.51 344.77 358.56 372.90 387.82 403.33 419.47 436.25 453.69 471.84 490.72
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 390.5 406.12 422.36 439.26 456.83 475.10 494.11 513.87 534.43 555.80 578.04 601.16 625.20
Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton)
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 86.19 179.28 186.45 193.91 201.67 209.73 218.12 226.85 235.92 245.36
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 76.87 159.89 166.29 172.94 179.85 187.05 194.53 202.31 210.40 218.82
Operating costs / ton
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 225 234.00 243.36 253.09 263.22 273.75 284.70 296.08 307.93 320.25 333.05 346.38 360.23
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 283 294.32 306.09 318.34 331.07 344.31 358.09 372.41 387.31 402.80 418.91 435.67 453.09
Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton)
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 63.27 131.61 136.87 142.35 148.04 153.96 160.12 166.53 173.19 180.12
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 55.71 115.87 120.51 125.33 130.34 135.56 140.98 146.62 152.48 158.58
Depreciate over 10 years 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00
Income
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.92 47.67 49.58 51.56 53.62 55.77 58.00 60.32 62.73 65.24
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 21.16 44.02 45.78 47.61 49.51 51.49 53.55 55.69 57.92 60.24
Total income $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $16.08 $63.69 $67.36 $71.17 $75.14 $79.26 $83.55 $88.01 $92.65 $97.48
Taxes $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $5.63 $22.29 $23.57 $24.91 $26.30 $27.74 $29.24 $30.80 $32.43 $34.12
Income after taxes $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $10.45 $41.40 $43.78 $46.26 $48.84 $51.52 $54.31 $57.21 $60.23 $63.36
Add back depreciation $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00
Subtract capital expenditures -$280.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Subtract startup costs 30.00
Subtract working capital costs 30.00
Cash flow -280.00 0.00 0.00 98.45 69.40 71.78 74.26 76.84 79.52 82.31 85.21 88.23 91.36
Internal rate of return (IRR) 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
Discounted cash flow $0.00 $0.00 $85.61 $60.35 $62.42 $64.57 $66.82 $69.15 $71.57 $74.09 $76.72 $79.45
Sum of discounted cash flow $710.74
Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5? Year 5 CF: 71.78
Year 5 Assets: 196.00
Year 5 ROA: 36.62%

CF analysis-thin slab - Adj #1

Assumptions:
Annual growth rate of price of steel 6.84% 6.84% (historical)
Annual growth rate of operating costs 4.00%
Tax rate 35.00%
Discount rate 15.00%
Thin Slab Minimill
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Capacity(million of tons of steel) 0 0 0
Shipments (12A)
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12A) 0 0 0 0.25 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12A) 0 0 0 0.175 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35
Revenue / ton
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 306.5 327.4646 349.86 373.79 399.36 426.68 455.86 487.04 520.36 555.95 593.98 634.60 678.01
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 390.5 417.2102 445.75 476.24 508.81 543.61 580.80 620.52 662.97 708.31 756.76 808.53 863.83
Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton)
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 93.45 199.68 213.34 227.93 243.52 260.18 277.97 296.99 317.30 339.01
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 83.34 178.08 190.26 203.28 217.18 232.04 247.91 264.87 282.98 302.34
Operating costs / ton
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 225 234.00 243.36 253.09 263.22 273.75 284.70 296.08 307.93 320.25 333.05 346.38 360.23
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 283 294.32 306.09 318.34 331.07 344.31 358.09 372.41 387.31 402.80 418.91 435.67 453.09
Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton)
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 63.27 131.61 136.87 142.35 148.04 153.96 160.12 166.53 173.19 180.12
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 55.71 115.87 120.51 125.33 130.34 135.56 140.98 146.62 152.48 158.58
Depreciate over 10 years 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00
Income
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 30.17 68.07 76.47 85.58 95.48 106.21 117.85 130.46 144.11 158.89
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 27.63 62.21 69.76 77.95 86.84 96.48 106.93 118.25 130.50 143.76
Total income $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $29.81 $102.28 $118.22 $135.53 $154.32 $174.70 $196.78 $220.71 $246.61 $274.65
Taxes $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $10.43 $35.80 $41.38 $47.44 $54.01 $61.14 $68.87 $77.25 $86.32 $96.13
Income after taxes $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $19.37 $66.48 $76.84 $88.10 $100.31 $113.55 $127.91 $143.46 $160.30 $178.52
Add back depreciation $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00
Subtract capital expenditures -$280.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Subtract startup costs 30.00
Subtract working capital costs 30.00
Cash flow -280.00 0.00 0.00 107.37 94.48 104.84 116.10 128.31 141.55 155.91 171.46 188.30 206.52
Internal rate of return (IRR) 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
Discounted cash flow $0.00 $0.00 $93.37 $82.16 $91.17 $100.95 $111.57 $123.09 $135.57 $149.10 $163.74 $179.58
Sum of discounted cash flow $1,230.30
Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5? Year 5 CF: 104.84
Year 5 Assets: 196.00
Year 5 ROA: 53.49%

CF analysis-thin slab 1-Adj #2

Assumptions:
Annual growth rate of price of steel 4.00% 6.84% (historical)
Annual growth rate of operating costs 2.00%
Tax rate 35.00%
Discount rate 15.00%
Thin Slab Minimill
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Capacity(million of tons of steel) 0 0 0
Shipments (12A)
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12A) 0 0 0 0.25 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12A) 0 0 0 0.175 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35
Revenue / ton
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 306.5 318.76 331.51 344.77 358.56 372.90 387.82 403.33 419.47 436.25 453.69 471.84 490.72
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 390.5 406.12 422.36 439.26 456.83 475.10 494.11 513.87 534.43 555.80 578.04 601.16 625.20
Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton)
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 86.19 179.28 186.45 193.91 201.67 209.73 218.12 226.85 235.92 245.36
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 76.87 159.89 166.29 172.94 179.85 187.05 194.53 202.31 210.40 218.82
Operating costs / ton
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 225 229.50 234.09 238.77 243.55 248.42 253.39 258.45 263.62 268.90 274.27 279.76 285.35
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 283 288.66 294.43 300.32 306.33 312.45 318.70 325.08 331.58 338.21 344.98 351.87 358.91
Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton)
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 59.69 121.77 124.21 126.69 129.23 131.81 134.45 137.14 139.88 142.68
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 52.56 107.21 109.36 111.55 113.78 116.05 118.37 120.74 123.16 125.62
Depreciate over 10 years 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00
Income
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 26.50 57.51 62.24 67.22 72.44 77.92 83.67 89.71 96.04 102.68
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 24.31 52.68 56.93 61.39 66.08 71.00 76.16 81.57 87.25 93.20
Total income $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $22.81 $82.18 $91.17 $100.61 $110.52 $120.92 $131.83 $143.28 $155.29 $167.88
Taxes $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $7.98 $28.76 $31.91 $35.21 $38.68 $42.32 $46.14 $50.15 $54.35 $58.76
Income after taxes $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $14.83 $53.42 $59.26 $65.40 $71.84 $78.60 $85.69 $93.13 $100.94 $109.12
Add back depreciation $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00
Subtract capital expenditures -$280.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Subtract startup costs 30.00
Subtract working capital costs 30.00
Cash flow -280.00 0.00 0.00 102.83 81.42 87.26 93.40 99.84 106.60 113.69 121.13 128.94 137.12
Internal rate of return (IRR) 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
Discounted cash flow $0.00 $0.00 $89.42 $70.80 $75.88 $81.21 $86.81 $92.69 $98.86 $105.33 $112.12 $119.24
Sum of discounted cash flow $932.37
Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5? Year 5 CF: 87.26
Year 5 Assets: 196.00
Year 5 ROA: 44.52%

CF analysis-thin slab- Adj #3

Assumptions:
Annual growth rate of price of steel 4.00% 6.84% (historical)
Annual growth rate of operating costs 4.00%
Tax rate 35.00%
Discount rate 10.00%
Thin Slab Minimill
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Capacity(million of tons of steel) 0 0 0
Shipments (12A)
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12A) 0 0 0 0.25 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12A) 0 0 0 0.175 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35
Revenue / ton
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 306.5 318.76 331.51 344.77 358.56 372.90 387.82 403.33 419.47 436.25 453.69 471.84 490.72
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 390.5 406.12 422.36 439.26 456.83 475.10 494.11 513.87 534.43 555.80 578.04 601.16 625.20
Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton)
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 86.19 179.28 186.45 193.91 201.67 209.73 218.12 226.85 235.92 245.36
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 76.87 159.89 166.29 172.94 179.85 187.05 194.53 202.31 210.40 218.82
Operating costs / ton
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 225 234.00 243.36 253.09 263.22 273.75 284.70 296.08 307.93 320.25 333.05 346.38 360.23
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 283 294.32 306.09 318.34 331.07 344.31 358.09 372.41 387.31 402.80 418.91 435.67 453.09
Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton)
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 63.27 131.61 136.87 142.35 148.04 153.96 160.12 166.53 173.19 180.12
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 55.71 115.87 120.51 125.33 130.34 135.56 140.98 146.62 152.48 158.58
Depreciate over 10 years 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00
Income
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.92 47.67 49.58 51.56 53.62 55.77 58.00 60.32 62.73 65.24
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 21.16 44.02 45.78 47.61 49.51 51.49 53.55 55.69 57.92 60.24
Total income $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $16.08 $63.69 $67.36 $71.17 $75.14 $79.26 $83.55 $88.01 $92.65 $97.48
Taxes $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $5.63 $22.29 $23.57 $24.91 $26.30 $27.74 $29.24 $30.80 $32.43 $34.12
Income after taxes $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $10.45 $41.40 $43.78 $46.26 $48.84 $51.52 $54.31 $57.21 $60.23 $63.36
Add back depreciation $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00
Subtract capital expenditures -$280.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Subtract startup costs 30.00
Subtract working capital costs 30.00
Cash flow -280.00 0.00 0.00 98.45 69.40 71.78 74.26 76.84 79.52 82.31 85.21 88.23 91.36
Internal rate of return (IRR) 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Discounted cash flow $0.00 $0.00 $89.50 $63.09 $65.26 $67.51 $69.85 $72.29 $74.83 $77.46 $80.21 $83.06
Sum of discounted cash flow $743.05
Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5? Year 5 CF: 71.78
Year 5 Assets: 196.00
Year 5 ROA: 36.62%

CF analysis - Modernize

Assumptions:
Annual growth rate of price of steel 4.00% 6.84% (historical)
Annual growth rate of operating costs 4.00%
Tax rate 35.00%
Discount rate 15.00%
Modernized integrated mill
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Capacity(million of tons of steel) 0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
Shipments (12A)
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12A) 0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12A) 0 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35
Revenue / ton
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 326.00 339.04 352.60 366.71 381.37 396.63 412.49 428.99 446.15 464.00 482.56 501.86 521.94 542.81 564.53 587.11 610.59 635.02 660.42 686.83 714.31 742.88 772.59 803.50 835.64 869.06
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 454.50 472.68 491.59 511.25 531.70 552.97 575.09 598.09 622.01 646.90 672.77 699.68 727.67 756.78 787.05 818.53 851.27 885.32 920.73 957.56 995.87 1035.70 1077.13 1120.21 1165.02 1211.62
Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton)
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 711.98 740.46 770.08 800.89 832.92 866.24 900.89 936.92 974.40 1013.38 1053.91 1096.07 1139.91 1185.51 1232.93 1282.24 1333.53 1386.87 1442.35 1500.04 1560.04 1622.45 1687.34 1754.84 1825.03
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 638.12 663.64 690.19 717.80 746.51 776.37 807.42 839.72 873.31 908.24 944.57 982.35 1021.65 1062.51 1105.01 1149.21 1195.18 1242.99 1292.71 1344.42 1398.20 1454.12 1512.29 1572.78 1635.69
Operating costs / ton
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 261.50 271.96 282.84 294.15 305.92 318.15 330.88 344.12 357.88 372.20 387.08 402.57 418.67 435.42 452.83 470.95 489.78 509.38 529.75 550.94 572.98 595.90 619.73 644.52 670.30 697.12
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 349.00 362.96 377.48 392.58 408.28 424.61 441.60 459.26 477.63 496.74 516.61 537.27 558.76 581.11 604.36 628.53 653.67 679.82 707.01 735.29 764.70 795.29 827.10 860.19 894.59 930.38
Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton)
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 571.12 593.96 617.72 642.43 668.12 694.85 722.64 751.55 781.61 812.88 845.39 879.21 914.38 950.95 988.99 1028.55 1069.69 1112.48 1156.98 1203.26 1251.39 1301.44 1353.50 1407.64 1463.94
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 490.00 509.60 529.98 551.18 573.23 596.16 620.00 644.80 670.59 697.42 725.31 754.33 784.50 815.88 848.51 882.46 917.75 954.46 992.64 1032.35 1073.64 1116.59 1161.25 1207.70 1256.01
Depreciate over 25 years 0 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92
Income
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 140.87 146.50 152.36 158.46 164.80 171.39 178.24 185.37 192.79 200.50 208.52 216.86 225.53 234.56 243.94 253.70 263.84 274.40 285.37 296.79 308.66 321.01 333.85 347.20 361.09
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 148.12 154.05 160.21 166.62 173.28 180.21 187.42 194.92 202.72 210.82 219.26 228.03 237.15 246.63 256.50 266.76 277.43 288.53 300.07 312.07 324.55 337.54 351.04 365.08 379.68
Total income 214.07 225.63 237.65 250.15 263.16 276.68 290.74 305.37 320.58 336.40 352.86 369.97 387.76 406.27 425.52 445.53 466.35 488.00 510.52 533.94 558.29 583.62 609.96 637.36 665.85
Taxes 74.92 78.97 83.18 87.55 92.11 96.84 101.76 106.88 112.20 117.74 123.50 129.49 135.72 142.19 148.93 155.94 163.22 170.80 178.68 186.88 195.40 204.27 213.49 223.08 233.05
Income after Taxes 139.15 146.66 154.47 162.60 171.05 179.84 188.98 198.49 208.38 218.66 229.36 240.48 252.05 264.08 276.59 289.60 303.13 317.20 331.84 347.06 362.89 379.35 396.48 414.28 432.80
Add back depreciation 0 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92
Subtract capital expenditures -1,873 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cash flow -1,873 214.07 221.58 229.39 237.52 245.97 254.76 263.90 273.41 283.30 293.58 304.28 315.40 326.97 339.00 351.51 364.52 378.05 392.12 406.76 421.98 437.81 454.27 471.40 489.20 507.72
Internal rate of return (IRR) 14%
Discounted cash flow -$1,873.00 $186.14 $192.68 $199.47 $206.54 $213.89 $221.53 $229.48 $237.75 $246.35 $255.29 $264.59 $274.26 $284.32 $294.78 $305.66 $316.97 $328.74 $340.98 $353.70 $366.94 $380.70 $395.02 $409.91 $425.39 $441.50
n years 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sum of discounted cash flow $5,499.58
Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5? Year 5 CF: 245.97
Year 5 Assets: 1498.4
Year 5 ROA: 16.42% 0.3283133027

CF analysis - Unmodernized

Assumptions:
Annual growth rate of price of steel 4.00% 6.84% (historical)
Annual growth rate of operating costs 4.00%
Tax rate 35.00%
Discount rate 15.00%
Unmodernized integrated mill
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Capacity(million of tons of steel) 0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
Shipments (12A)
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08
Revenue / ton
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 325.00 338.00 351.52 365.58 380.20 395.41 411.23 427.68 444.78 462.58 481.08 500.32 520.34 541.15 562.79 585.31 608.72 633.07 658.39 684.73 712.12 740.60 770.22 801.03 833.07 866.40
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 453.00 471.12 489.96 509.56 529.95 551.14 573.19 596.12 619.96 644.76 670.55 697.37 725.27 754.28 784.45 815.83 848.46 882.40 917.69 954.40 992.58 1032.28 1073.57 1116.52 1161.18 1207.62
Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton)
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 567.84 590.55 614.18 638.74 664.29 690.86 718.50 747.24 777.13 808.21 840.54 874.16 909.13 945.50 983.32 1022.65 1063.55 1106.10 1150.34 1196.35 1244.21 1293.98 1345.73 1399.56 1455.55
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 508.81 529.16 550.33 572.34 595.24 619.04 643.81 669.56 696.34 724.19 753.16 783.29 814.62 847.21 881.09 916.34 952.99 991.11 1030.75 1071.99 1114.86 1159.46 1205.84 1254.07 1304.23
Operating costs / ton
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 300 312.00 324.48 337.46 350.96 365.00 379.60 394.78 410.57 426.99 444.07 461.84 480.31 499.52 519.50 540.28 561.89 584.37 607.74 632.05 657.34 683.63 710.98 739.41 768.99 799.75
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 403 419.12 435.88 453.32 471.45 490.31 509.92 530.32 551.53 573.59 596.54 620.40 645.22 671.02 697.87 725.78 754.81 785.00 816.40 849.06 883.02 918.34 955.08 993.28 1033.01 1074.33
Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton)
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 524.16 545.13 566.93 589.61 613.19 637.72 663.23 689.76 717.35 746.04 775.88 806.92 839.20 872.76 907.68 943.98 981.74 1021.01 1061.85 1104.33 1148.50 1194.44 1242.22 1291.91 1343.58
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 452.65 470.76 489.59 509.17 529.54 550.72 572.75 595.66 619.48 644.26 670.03 696.83 724.71 753.69 783.84 815.20 847.80 881.72 916.99 953.66 991.81 1031.48 1072.74 1115.65 1160.28
Depreciate over 25 years (no expenditure to dep.) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Income
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 43.68 45.43 47.24 49.13 51.10 53.14 55.27 57.48 59.78 62.17 64.66 67.24 69.93 72.73 75.64 78.67 81.81 85.08 88.49 92.03 95.71 99.54 103.52 107.66 111.97
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 56.16 58.41 60.74 63.17 65.70 68.33 71.06 73.90 76.86 79.93 83.13 86.46 89.91 93.51 97.25 101.14 105.19 109.39 113.77 118.32 123.05 127.98 133.09 138.42 143.96
Total income 0.00 99.84 103.83 107.99 112.31 116.80 121.47 126.33 131.38 136.64 142.10 147.79 153.70 159.85 166.24 172.89 179.81 187.00 194.48 202.26 210.35 218.76 227.51 236.61 246.08 255.92
Taxes 0 34.94 36.34 37.80 39.31 40.88 42.51 44.22 45.98 47.82 49.74 51.73 53.79 55.95 58.18 60.51 62.93 65.45 68.07 70.79 73.62 76.57 79.63 82.81 86.13 89.57
Total Income after Tax 64.90 67.49 70.19 73.00 75.92 78.96 82.11 85.40 88.81 92.37 96.06 99.90 103.90 108.06 112.38 116.87 121.55 126.41 131.47 136.73 142.20 147.88 153.80 159.95 166.35
Add back depreciation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Subtract capital expenditures 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cash flow 0 64.90 67.49 70.19 73.00 75.92 78.96 82.11 85.40 88.81 92.37 96.06 99.90 103.90 108.06 112.38 116.87 121.55 126.41 131.47 136.73 142.20 147.88 153.80 159.95 166.35
IRR
Discounted cash flow $0.00 $56.43 $58.69 $61.04 $63.48 $66.02 $68.66 $71.40 $74.26 $77.23 $80.32 $83.53 $86.87 $90.35 $93.96 $97.72 $101.63 $105.69 $109.92 $114.32 $118.89 $123.65 $128.59 $133.74 $139.09 $144.65
n 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sum of discounted cash flow $2,350.13
Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5? Year 5 CF: 75.92
Year 5 Assets: 0.00
Year 5 ROA: N/A

CF analysis - Formerly Unmodern

Assumptions:
Annual growth rate of price of steel 4.00% 6.84% (historical)
Annual growth rate of operating costs 4.00%
Tax rate 35.00%
Discount rate 15.00%
Unmodernized integrated mill
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Capacity(million of tons of steel) 0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
Shipments (12A)
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35
Revenue / ton
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 325.00 338.00 351.52 365.58 380.20 395.41 411.23 427.68 444.78 462.58 481.08 500.32 520.34 541.15 562.79 585.31 608.72 633.07 658.39 684.73 712.12 740.60 770.22 801.03 833.07 866.40
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 453.00 471.12 489.96 509.56 529.95 551.14 573.19 596.12 619.96 644.76 670.55 697.37 725.27 754.28 784.45 815.83 848.46 882.40 917.69 954.40 992.58 1032.28 1073.57 1116.52 1161.18 1207.62
Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton)
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 709.80 738.19 767.72 798.43 830.37 863.58 898.12 934.05 971.41 1010.27 1050.68 1092.70 1136.41 1181.87 1229.14 1278.31 1329.44 1382.62 1437.92 1495.44 1555.26 1617.47 1682.17 1749.46 1819.43
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 636.01 661.45 687.91 715.43 744.04 773.81 804.76 836.95 870.43 905.24 941.45 979.11 1018.28 1059.01 1101.37 1145.42 1191.24 1238.89 1288.44 1339.98 1393.58 1449.32 1507.30 1567.59 1630.29
Operating costs / ton
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 261.5 271.96 282.84 294.15 305.92 318.15 330.88 344.12 357.88 372.20 387.08 402.57 418.67 435.42 452.83 470.95 489.78 509.38 529.75 550.94 572.98 595.90 619.73 644.52 670.30 697.12
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 349.00 362.96 377.48 392.58 408.28 424.61 441.60 459.26 477.63 496.74 516.61 537.27 558.76 581.11 604.36 628.53 653.67 679.82 707.01 735.29 764.70 795.29 827.10 860.19 894.59 930.38
Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton)
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 571.12 593.96 617.72 642.43 668.12 694.85 722.64 751.55 781.61 812.88 845.39 879.21 914.38 950.95 988.99 1028.55 1069.69 1112.48 1156.98 1203.26 1251.39 1301.44 1353.50 1407.64 1463.94
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 490.00 509.60 529.98 551.18 573.23 596.16 620.00 644.80 670.59 697.42 725.31 754.33 784.50 815.88 848.51 882.46 917.75 954.46 992.64 1032.35 1073.64 1116.59 1161.25 1207.70 1256.01
Depreciate over 25 years (no expenditure to dep.) 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92
Income
- Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 138.68 144.23 150.00 156.00 162.24 168.73 175.48 182.50 189.80 197.39 205.29 213.50 222.04 230.92 240.16 249.76 259.75 270.14 280.95 292.19 303.87 316.03 328.67 341.82 355.49
- Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 146.02 151.86 157.93 164.25 170.82 177.65 184.76 192.15 199.83 207.83 216.14 224.78 233.78 243.13 252.85 262.97 273.49 284.42 295.80 307.63 319.94 332.74 346.05 359.89 374.28
Total income 0.00 284.70 296.09 307.93 320.25 333.06 346.38 360.24 374.65 389.63 405.22 421.43 438.28 455.81 474.05 493.01 512.73 533.24 554.57 576.75 599.82 623.81 648.77 674.72 701.70 729.77
Taxes 0 99.65 103.63 107.78 112.09 116.57 121.23 126.08 131.13 136.37 141.83 147.50 153.40 159.53 165.92 172.55 179.46 186.63 194.10 201.86 209.94 218.33 227.07 236.15 245.60 255.42
Total Income after Tax 185.06 192.46 200.16 208.16 216.49 225.15 234.15 243.52 253.26 263.39 273.93 284.88 296.28 308.13 320.46 333.27 346.60 360.47 374.89 389.88 405.48 421.70 438.57 456.11 474.35
Add back depreciation 0 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92
Subtract capital expenditures -1873 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cash flow -1873 259.98 267.38 275.08 283.08 291.41 300.07 309.07 318.44 328.18 338.31 348.85 359.80 371.20 383.05 395.38 408.19 421.52 435.39 449.81 464.80 480.40 496.62 513.49 531.03 549.27
IRR 16%
Discounted cash flow -$1,628.70 $226.07 $232.50 $239.20 $246.16 $253.40 $260.93 $268.76 $276.90 $285.37 $294.18 $303.34 $312.87 $322.78 $333.09 $343.80 $354.95 $366.54 $378.60 $391.14 $404.18 $417.74 $431.84 $446.51 $461.76 $477.63
n 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sum of discounted cash flow $6,701.55
Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5? Year 5 CF: 291.41
Year 5 Assets: 1,498.40
Year 5 ROA: 0.1944795621