Theories Evaluations

1 Theory Evaluation

WHAT MAKES A GOOD THEORY Akers & Sellers (2013)

● 6 criteria for evaluating theory o Logical consistency o Scope o Parsimony o Testability o Empirical Validity – most important o Policy Implications

● Logical Consistency

o Basic prerequisite for good theory - ​Does the theory logically make sense? o Must have clearly defined concepts and propositions that are logically stated and

internally consistent ▪ Example: If a theory states that biological deficiencies are to blame for

crime, family socialization cannot be claimed to be the basic cause of crime

o Book Definition:​ A theory needs to be presented in a logical manner and to have clearly stated propositions that agree with or do not contradict one another. Restated, does the theory make logical and consistent sense?

● Scope

o Refers to the range of phenomena the theory proposes to explain. o Does or can the theory explain multiple types of crime?

▪ Example: A theory of check forging may be accurate but is incredibly limited in scope. A theory explaining a wide range of crimes, including check forging, is preferred. In other words, we do not want a theory to be so focused that it cannot work on multiple crimes.

o Book Definition​: Refers to how much or how many types of crime or deviance the theory covers

● Parsimony

o Refers to the conciseness and abstractness of a set of concepts and propositions o Interrelated with scope, meaning a good theory explains a wide range of

behaviors with as few succinct statements as necessary ▪ Example: Gottfredson & Hirschi’s (1990) general theory of crime

o Book Definition:​ This refers to how many propositions, steps, or statements are involved. How simple is the theory?​ Can the theory address multiple crimes and areas with few propositions and concepts that are clear and concise?

2 Theory Evaluation

● Testability o Theories must be testable by objective, repeatable evidence o Is the theory testable? o Theories must also be subject to ​empirical falsification

▪ State another way, the theory must be open to evidence that would disprove its hypotheses

o If a theory is not falsifiable, it is ​tautological o Is the theory tautological?

▪ A tautology is a statement or hypothesis that is true by definition or involves circular reasoning

▪ Example: Labeling serial killers as psychopaths and then asserting that people commit serial murders because they are psychopathic, which equates to “psychopaths are psychopathic”

o A theory may also be untestable if its propositions are so open-ended that any contradictory empirical evidence can be reinterpreted to support the theory

o A theory may also be untestable if its concepts are not measurable by observable and reportable events ▪ Example: people commit crime because they are possessed by invisible

demons ▪ Important: not everything has to be observed if it can be reported (i.e.

self-report surveys) o Book Definition​: To be valid and ultimately useful, a theory must be able to be

subjected to scientific research. Theories may be untestable if they are tautological, propose causes that are not measurable, or are so open-ended that empirical findings can always be re-interpreted to support the theory.

● Empirical Validity

o Means that a theory has been supported by research evidence (results and findings from research) ▪ Most important criterion for judging a theory

▪ The other criteria mean very little if the theory is not supported o Soft determinism acknowledges human nature and leaves room for individual

choices that cannot be completely predicted ▪ Take away: no theory will be completely true or false

o Book Definition​: This is the most important factor in evaluating a theory, and means that the theory has been supported by research evidence.

o Can research support this theory? Are there several research studies that support this theory?

● Policy Implications

o The value of theory is further evaluated by its usefulness in providing guidelines for effective social and criminal justice policy and practice

3 Theory Evaluation

o Can this theory have policy implications to help decrease or prevent crime? o Book Definition​: If the theory is empirically valid, what solutions are suggested.