Essay go

Du 1

Reading Report 1 (QL: Please have a proper title)

An epidemic virus is an enemy not unfamiliar to humans. Their invisible existence poses a potential threat to humanity, and every outbreak of them causes the world's living beings to be damaged. During 2003, the outbreak of SARS brought great panic to the people of the world. Especially in China, atypical pneumonia affects not only the lives of local residents, but also China's economy.

After China's reform and opening up, the level of national consumption and the gross national product have improved significantly. The huge population not only gives China's manufacturing industry powerful human resources, but also creates a highly competitive and low-paying job environment. Under such conditions, China has a strong competitive advantage in the international market. During the SARS period in 2003, the impact of the virus epidemic on the Chinese economy was undoubtedly huge. Because almost everyone will require self-isolation to prevent unpredictable mutual transmission. Various commercial organizations, companies, and factories have had to delay construction to protect themselves and their employees. According to Ren Ruoen's statistical analysis, SARS has seriously affected Beijing, Guangdong and other cities, and they have up to 22% of China's GDP. China's retail industry and service industry are the biggest victims. During the epidemic, sales in the severely affected cities fell by almost 37% in May. (QL: Sources for this number?) In other provinces less affected by the epidemic, retailer industry sales have also dropped by an average of 20% (Rawski). Prolonged self-isolation and avoiding viruses have caused manufacturing to reduce production capacity. Because of the lack of human resources, many manufacturers have been unable to operate normally or complete their construction deadlines.

At the same time, because people have increased awareness of self-management and defense, they have reduced travel and driving. This has reduced demand for oil. Because China has a large population, its energy consumption is also huge. The simultaneous existence of these two conditions has led to a reduction in oil production. (QL: Please be more specific. Oil consumption in China? Oil Production in China? Global oil production? I do not see the link between the two preceding sentences clearly.) According to the literature, the growth rate of the petroleum industry before the outbreak of disasters is usually 9%, but during the epidemic the growth rate became negative 10% (Rawski). It is not just the oil industry that has been affected by SARS. China's domestic tourism industry has also shrunk significantly. When travel becomes a panic, tourism has to be hit hard. From 1999 to 2002. China's tourism industry has been on the rise. (QL: Can you provide a figure characterizing the growth of the tourism industry over the years and how SARs affected it?) During the outbreak of the SARS virus, people's increased awareness of self-protection led to their desire to travel less. Therefore, from 2002 to 2004, 2003 was the lowest period in China's tourism industry, with a loss of more than US $ 3 billion (Keogh-Brown; Smith). In 2003, the fear that SARS brought to people kept people's strong sense of self-protection. At the same time, it has brought harm to China's tourism industry.

Although the SARS virus has affected China's various industries to some extent, it has not produced significant losses in its long-term development capacity. After the epidemic was brought under control, China's economy quickly returned to its original level. According to the data displayed by world bank open dates, China's export volume is still on the rise from 2002 to 2003 (Beutels; Jia; Zhou). This shows that the virus epidemic has not had a long-term impact on China's export economy. (QL: I have seen enough evidence. It is unclear what the Chinese economy would have been, had SARs not occurred.)

In general, SARS poses more than a health threat to China. There will also be short-term but serious injuries financially. The delayed start of the production industry and the people's self-protection consciousness have caused frustrations in the production, tourism, and retail industries. We can also know that infectious viral diseases will have a long-term impact on the service industry. In other words, viruses can affect the third type of industry for a long time. These include transportation, services, entertainment, etc. The first and second industries will only be affected in the short term, and they can recover quickly after the epidemic is under control.

In 2019, a new coronavirus broke out in Wuhan, China. This undoubtedly reminds us of the SARS period in 2003. The outbreak of the virus has also seen large-scale human-to-human transmission, which also forced the Wuhan government to block the entire city to prevent the large-scale spread of the epidemic. Residents in other provinces and cities have also implemented self-isolation to reduce the chance of infection. The economic impact of the Wuhan epidemic may be different from that of the SARS epidemic. First of all, China's logistics industry has increased with the times, and online shopping has become the mainstream consumption method. (QL: Again, please look for numbers and show them in tables and/or figures.) Most retailers consider both physical and online sales, which may make them less vulnerable than they were in 2003. Although most people have experience during the SARS period, I believe that the tourism industry is still relatively affected. At the same time, it means that the transportation industry will also receive a certain blow. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the air passenger traffic as of January 1, 2020 has dropped by almost 10% compared to November 2019. In the fourth quarter of 2019, the tertiary industry's GDP grew by almost 7% year-on-year. Therefore, this outbreak is likely to cause some long-term damage to the national GDP (NBSC) .

China is a large production country. Although WTO has not listed China as an epidemic country, the delay in resumption of work has caused many countries to fail to provide outsourced products on time. This has led to many difficult times for large multinational companies facing product line suspensions and production cuts. Companies such as Hyundai in South Korea and Apple in the United States have had to suffer from a shortage of parts. Apple has stated that due to the impact of the Chinese epidemic, Apple products in the global market will be temporarily restricted, and Apple store hours in China will be significantly reduced. Therefore, Apple will most likely fail to meet its March revenue target (Apple Inc). At the same time, this has led these large companies to consider giving outsourcing and manufacturing orders to neighboring China. This is undoubtedly a big threat to Chinese manufacturers.

(QL: You have discussed the impacts on (1) tourism industry; (2) impact on the overall economy. Can you provide a more extensive coverage? For example, some argue that SARs really help e-commerce companies such as JD.com and Alibaba. How did the epidemic affect the society beyond the Chinese economy? What about the 2019 Coronavirus epidemic?)

(QL: Will you turn in a total of 2 reports? If so, what topic would you cover in the second report?)

Work Cited

Investor update on quarterly guidance. (2020, February 17). Retrieved February 20, 2020, from https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/02/investor-update-on-quarterly-guidance/

Beutels, P., Jia, N., Zhou, Q. Y., Smith, R., Cao, W. C., & De Vlas, S. J. (2009). The economic impact of SARS in Beijing, China. Tropical Medicine & International Health, 14, 85-91.

Keogh-Brown, M. R., & Smith, R. D. (2008). The economic impact of SARS: how does the reality match the predictions? Health policy, 88(1), 110-120.

Rawski, T. G. (2005). SARS and China’s Economy. SARS in China: Prelude to Pandemic, 105-121.

Tang, C. (2006). Perspectives in supply chain risk management. International Journal of Production Economics, 103(2), 451-488.