Will we “run out” of fossil fuels? Why or why not? If so, when?
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GEOL241F2017Lect10--Peakfossil1.pdf
GEOL 241 Fall 2017 Lecture 10: “Peak oil” (and gas, and coal)
…or are we…?
The historical context of fossil fuels: and the future
The historical context of fossil fuels: and the future
Humanity will eventually shift away from fossil fuel energy. This is not a question of if, but when
(10 years, 100 years, 1000 years, …)? The answer depends partly on why:
(1) Supply (because we run out) – a question we will consider today
OR
(2) Consequences (if we decide to stop using them) – a question we will discuss in the next 2 weeks,
e.g., because of with climate change
A reminder about non-renewable resources
The feasibility of recovery depends on technology as well as economics – remember recent changes in unconventional fossil fuels, and the patterns you see in lab this week
Despite high prices, advanced technology and a desire to be independent of foreign oil, production of oil in the U.S. peaked and declined, showing no signs of increasing even as of the late 2000s
Led to concern over imminent “peak oil”
Oil production history in the U.S. Lower 48 until 2005
The view in the mid- to late-2000s
The Hubbert Peak & the concept of “Peak Oil”
Dr. King Hubbert, Shell Oil, 1903-1989
• Predicted that oil production should reach a “peak” and then decrease.
• Predicted peak for US production in 1970. • Predicted peak for global production ca. 2000.
His predictions for US production of oil generally were remarkably accurate… at least up until the last ten years or so.
All oil fields follow a pattern of rapid development and production, followed by a rapid fall in production
We know that: • Oil wells peak • Oil fields peak • Regions peak • The World will
peak
Some of you have seen this effect in lab…
But can we predict when the peak will happen?
Statistical behavior is remarkably predictable – follows a linear trend when plotting P/Q versus Q, where P = production in a given year Q = total production up to that point in time
The Hubbert Peak: A Logistic Curve
US Lower 48 Oil Production
Fit to straight line defined by historical statistics: P/Q = mQ + a Q for which P/Q = 0 is Qt (maximum cumulative production) For the U.S. Lower 48, Qt = 198 gigabarrels of oil This will be (roughly) the max oil produced in the Lower 48. Half of this is 99, which reflects the peak – occurred early 1970s
The Hubbert Peak: A Logistic Curve
US Lower 48 Oil Production
Fit to straight line defined by historical statistics: P/Q = mQ + a Q for which P/Q = 0 is Qt (maximum cumulative production) For the U.S. Lower 48, Qt = 198 gigabarrels of oil This will be (roughly) the max oil produced in the Lower 48. Half of this is 99, which occurred in 1973
The Hubbert Peak: A Logistic Curve
US Lower 48 Oil Production
The Hubbert approach provides a statistical model for growth or decay based on historical trends
The potential power of the Hubbert Curve approach is that it uses past behavior of a system to indicate
possible future performance
Global Oil Production Logistic Curve Predict Maximum Cumulative Production (Qt) = 2165 Gigabarrels
½ Qt = 1083 Gb – close to present day production!
So are we currently near the global “oil peak”?
Global peak oil? Many controversial opinions on future of oil production
Predictions of a dire future…
Resurgent U.S. Production in 2010s: The “real” peak in total oil production has yet to come
U.S. production reached a “new” peak in 2014 • Fracking
technology, particularly in N. Dakota and Texas
• High oil prices à more investment in marginal resources
Combination of economics and technology…
Resurgent U.S. Production in 2010s
U.S. production reach a “new peak” in 2015, but decreased in 2016 as oil prices declined
A gradual shift towards less imported oil: But US still imports close to ½ the oil we consume
Same globally: production continues to increase
Global oil production records continue to be broken, largely
because of unconventional production
Death of Peak Oil?
• Historical statistics tell us that we are reaching a global peak in terms of production of conventional oil
• The “unconventional” new sources of petroleum are changing what way we view peak oil, but they come at a price
What is “easy”
oil?
“Peak Oil may or may not have been discredited. Peak Cheap Oil remains to haunt us.” - Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, The Telegraph, Aug 26th, 2012
What about the price of oil?
Shifting economics of oil around 2005
Higher prices post-2005 may have been an important stimulus of new unconventional production
Oil prices in 2014-2015 have plummeted: But how long will this last?
Resurgent U.S. Production in 2010s
U.S. production reach a “new peak” in 2015, but decrease in 2016 as oil prices declined
A “fracking bust” in 2016 caused by low oil prices?
A “fracking bust” in 2016 caused by low oil prices?
Will advancing technology make unconventional sources that dominate U.S. production more competitive even at lower oil prices?
Will oil prices begin to rise again?
Interesting questions in the next couple of years…
Currently in a phase where US production varies slightly, determined by price fluctuations
• Hubbert peak => statistical approach for assessing when oil production should peak for a single oil field, for a country, or for the world – accurately predicted peaks in conventional oil production, e.g., for the USA in early 1970s, and globally around the present day
• Higher oil prices & improved technology in late 2000s stimulated unconventional production, leading to an increase in total production in the US and elsewhere
• With the additional production, oil prices have dropped – leaving us in a volatile time with much uncertainty about where oil production will head in the next few years
But… it’s pretty clear that oil companies are not on their last legs, about to run out of oil to pull out of the ground!
So how can we summarize this story so far?
An important set of concepts to keep in mind: What does global peak oil really mean?
Does it mean that world oil production stops? NO!
Does it mean that we have already used most of the world’s oil? NO! The nature of the peak – by definition – is that at least half of the world’s oil is still available to us.
Does it mean we are going to exhaust all possible oil supplies? NO!
There will always be oil left in the ground… it just might not be economical to extract it (e.g., if other energy sources are cheaper…)
UK Coal Production
Ultimately, coal also follows a peak production curve….. as does any non-renewable resource!
from D. Rutledge, Caltech
What about gas and coal? Are they likely to “peak” as well?
The history of British coal
from D. Rutledge, Caltech
from D. Rutledge, Caltech
The history of Pennsylvania anthracite
What about gas?
The bigger picture
Let’s take a broader perspective, beyond the debate on peak oil.
Instead, let’s ask: How much fossil fuel is there, and is there enough to continue to
fuel growth in energy use (and in our economies)?
Simple view: current (2014) oil production is ~90 million barrels per day, or ~33 billion barrels per year.
Proved oil reserves are 1700 billion barrels (in 2014). So current reserves would last ~50 yrs.
What’s incomplete about this calculation?
Remember how reserves are defined
Total reserves ~ 1700 billion barrels Total resources ~ 5900 billion barrels
The bigger picture Simple view: current (2014) oil production is ~90 million barrels
per day, or ~33 billion barrels per year.
Proved oil reserves are 1700 billion barrels (in 2014). So current reserves would last ~50 yrs.
What’s incomplete about this calculation?
(1) Reserves are not the same as the total amount of a resource there are 5900 billion barrels in total known oil resources, enough
for ~180 years or more at present rate of consumption
But… oil consumption is growing!
Average rate of growth since 1980 of ~1.6% growth per year. What would it take to sustain this globally into the future?
Sustaining growth
Note the linear scale – because growth is exponential, the absolute increases get larger and larger as time goes on…
Compare the cumulative growth in oil used to the total estimated resources of ~5900 billion barrels: we would run out of all oil by around 2100 if growth continues at the pace of the last 30 years
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The bigger picture Simple view: current (2014) oil production is ~90 million barrels
per day, or ~33 billion barrels per year.
Proved oil reserves are 1700 billion barrels (in 2014). So current reserves would last ~50 yrs.
What’s incomplete about this calculation?
(1) Reserves ≠ resources – there are 5900 billion barrels in total known resources, enough for ~180 years or more at present
rate of consumption
(2) Does not account for continued growth in consumption – when you take this into account, even if we could extract all
unconventional oil (never mind the cost or consequences), we would run out by ~2100
What about resources that have yet to be discovered?
Most of the world’s oil has already been discovered – we have not found every last drop of oil but we have
made the big discoveries
Let’s think even bigger, beyond oil – what about our total energy use and sustaining its growth into the future?
Growth in total global energy consumption hovers around 2%/year – similar to GDP growth (and related?)
Sustaining energy growth for the next 100 years: Is this feasible with the fossil fuel resources on Earth?
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How much fossil fuel resource is there in total?
All in 1021 joules, from Jaccard, 2006, Sustainable Fossil Fuels
Type of fuel Reserves Estimated resources* Conventional oil 6 12
Unconventional oil 5 20
Conventional gas 5.5 16.5
Unconventional gas 9.5 33
Coal 21 200
Total ~47 ~281
*Total amount of each resource is not well known! And depends on what is included (e.g., oil shales?). But these are some estimates.
Sustaining energy growth for the next 100 years: Is this feasible with the fossil fuel resources on Earth?
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Compare to all fossil fuels: Reserves ~ 47 x 1021 J Resources ~ 281 x 1021 J
But what if we continue growing at the same pace for another 100 years…?
Compare to all fossil fuels: Reserves ~ 47 x 1021 J Resources ~ 281 x 1021 J
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Or if we want to grow faster, let’s say 3% a year…
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Compare to all fossil fuels: Reserves ~ 47 x 1021 J Resources ~ 281 x 1021 J
The Exponential Problem
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.”
– Albert Bartlett, physicist at University of Colorado, Boulder
A closing thought…
Are the consequences of continuing to use oil more
of a problem than the potential shortage of it?
And will we consequently shift away from oil to
other energy sources?
We might reach “peak oil” not because of the limits of oil supply but because we reach a peak in demand
