W2 Short Answer Worksheet [due Mon]

1 Michael Shader, Ph.D., is a Social Science Program Specialist in the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention’s (OJJDP’s) Research and Program Development Division.

1

Risk Factors for Delinquency: An Overview

by Michael Shader1

The juvenile justice field has spent much time and

energy attempting to understand the causes of

delinquency. Different theoretical models describe

the relationship between variables and outcomes.

Researchers have concluded that there is no single

path to delinquency and note that the presence of

several risk factors often increases a youth’s chance

of offending. Studies also point to the interaction of

risk factors, the multiplicative effect when several

risk factors are present, and how certain protective

factors may work to offset risk factors.

In recent years, the juvenile justice field has

adopted an approach from the public health arena

in an attempt to understand the causes of

delinquency and work toward its prevention

(Farrington, 2000; Moore, 1995). For example, the

medical community’s efforts to prevent cancer and

heart disease have successfully targeted risk factors

(Farrington, 2000). To evaluate a patient’s risk of

suffering a heart attack, a doctor commonly asks

for the patient’s medical history, family history,

diet, weight, and exercise level because each of

these variables has an effect on the patient’s cardiac

health. After this risk assessment, the doctor may

suggest ways for the patient to reduce his or her risk

factors. Similarly, if a youth possesses certain risk

factors, research indicates that these factors will

increase his or her chance of becoming a

delinquent. A risk assessment may aid in

determining the type of intervention that will best

suit the youth’s needs and decrease his or her risk of

offending. Farrington (2000) calls this recent

movement toward the public health model the “risk

factor paradigm,” the basic idea of which is to

“identify the key risk factors for offending and tool

prevention methods designed to counteract them”

(Farrington, 2000:1).

Although much of the research on risk factors that

youth face has focused on predicting serious and

violent offenses, risk factors are relevant to all

levels of delinquency. This article defines risk

factors, explains why they are important, and briefly

discusses some of the major risk factors linked to

delinquency and violence.

Risk Factors for Delinquency: An Overview

2

What Is a Risk Factor?

Risk factors have been broadly defined as “those

characteristics, variables, or hazards that, if present

for a given individual, make it more likely that this

individual, rather than someone selected from the

general population, will develop a disorder”

(Mrazek and Haggerty, 1994:127). Kazdin and

colleagues (1997) note that a risk factor predicts an

increased probability of later offending. A recent

report from the U.S. Surgeon General more

specifically defines a risk factor as “anything that

increases the probability that a person will suffer

harm” (Office of the Surgeon General, 2001

(chapter 4)).

Psychologists Coie and colleagues (1993) noted the

following regarding risk factors:2

• Dysfunction has a complicated relationship

with risk factors; rarely is one risk factor

associated with a particular disorder.

• The impact of risk factors may vary with the

developmental state of the individual.

• Exposure to multiple risk factors has a

cumulative effect.

• Many disorders share fundamental risk factors.

Four Steps of the Risk Factor Approach

Mercy and O’Carroll (1998) summarize the four steps of the public health approach to decisionmaking as follows:

• Public health surveillance (i.e., developing and refining data systems for ongoing analysis and disseminating data).

• Risk group identification (i.e., identifying individuals at greatest risk of disease or injury and the places, times, and other circumstances associated with increased risk).

• Risk factor exploration (i.e., analytically exploring the potentially causative risk factors).

• Program implementation and evaluation (i.e., designing, implementing, and evaluating preventive measures based on an understanding of the population at risk and the community’s identified risk factors).

The criminal justice field adopted these steps for its risk factor approach. Criminologists compile statistics on the prevalence of crimes through the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports and the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey. They then apply the techniques of risk group identification to crime as they attempt to determine those at greatest risk of offending. Criminal justice researchers explore risk factors by applying theoretical models and statistical techniques to determine which risk factors are linked to crime. The criminal justice sector then works to develop, design, and implement programs that attempt to prevent offending. These programs are then evaluated to determine whether they are successful and cost effective.

Although researchers use risk factors to detect the

likelihood of later offending, many youth with

multiple risk factors never commit delinquent or

violent acts. A risk factor may increase the

probability of offending, but does not make

offending a certainty. 2 Similar conclusions could be drawn in the juvenile justice field regarding delinquent behavior.

Risk Factors for Delinquency: An Overview

3

What Is a Protective Factor?

Research on risk factors for delinquency has prompted discussion and investigation into influences that may provide a buffer between the presence of risk factors and the onset of delinquency. These buffers are known as protective factors. Pollard, Hawkins, and Arthur (1999:146) note that “protective factors are those factors that mediate or moderate the effect of exposure to risk factors, resulting in reduced incidence of problem behavior.” Rutter (1987) believes that protective factors offset the onset of delinquency via four main processes: reducing risk, reducing negative chain reactions, establishing self-esteem and self-efficacy, and opening up opportunities.

Researchers disagree about what constitutes a protective factor. Protective factors “have been viewed both as the absence of risk and something conceptually distinct from it” (Office of the Surgeon General, 2001 (chapter 4)). The former view looks at risk and protective factors as opposite ends of a continuum. For example, excellent performance in school might be considered a protective factor because it is the opposite of poor performance in school—a known risk factor. The second view of protective factors sees them as “characteristics or conditions that interact with risk factors to reduce their influence on violent behavior” (Office of the Surgeon General, 2001 (chapter 4)). For example, poverty is often seen as a risk factor, but the presence of supportive, involved parents may mediate the negative influence of poverty to lessen a youth’s chance of becoming delinquent.

Why Study Risk Factors?

Several juvenile justice researchers have linked risk

factors to delinquency (Hawkins et al., 1998;

Lipsey and Derzon, 1998), and many have also

noted a multiplicative effect if several risk factors

are present. Herrenkohl and colleagues (2000)

report that a 10-year-old exposed to six or more

risk factors is 10 times as likely to commit a violent

act by age 18 as a 10-year-old exposed to only one

risk factor.

Similarly, the age range or developmental period

during which a youth is exposed to a specific risk

factor is important to individuals working to tailor

prevention programs to specific factors. Youth

Violence: A Report of the Surgeon General (2001

(chapter 4)) elaborates:

Violence prevention and intervention efforts hinge on identifying risk and protective factors and determining when in the course of development they emerge. To be effective, such efforts must be appropriate to a youth’s stage of development. A program that is effective in childhood may be ineffective in adolescence and vice versa. Moreover, the risk and protective factors targeted by violence prevention may be different from those targeted by intervention programs which are designed to prevent the recurrence of violence.

The study of risk factors, therefore, is critical to the

enhancement of prevention programs that frequently

have limited staffing and funding. Identifying which

risk factors may cause delinquency for particular

sets of youth at specific stages of their development

may help programs target their efforts in a more

efficient and cost-effective manner. The table on

page 4, which was adapted from a report by the

Office of the Surgeon General, categorizes risk

factors by age of onset of delinquency and identifies

corresponding protective factors.

Risk Factors for Delinquency: An Overview

4

Risk and Protective Factors, by Domain

Risk Factor

Domain Early Onset (ages 6–11) Late Onset (ages 12–14) Protective Factor*

Individual General offenses Substance use Being male Aggression** Hyperactivity Problem (antisocial) behavior Exposure to television

violence Medical, physical problems Low IQ Antisocial attitudes, beliefs Dishonesty**

General offenses Restlessness Difficulty concentrating** Risk taking Aggression** Being male Physical violence Antisocial attitudes, beliefs Crimes against persons Problem (antisocial) behavior Low IQ Substance use

Intolerant attitude toward deviance

High IQ Being female Positive social

orientation Perceived sanctions for

transgressions

Family Low socioeconomic status/poverty

Antisocial parents Poor parent-child relationship Harsh, lax, or inconsistent

discipline Broken home Separation from parents Other conditions Abusive parents Neglect

Poor parent-child relationship Harsh or lax discipline Poor monitoring, supervision Low parental involvement Antisocial parents Broken home Low socioeconomic

status/poverty Abusive parents Family conflict**

Warm, supportive relationships with parents or other adults

Parents’ positive evaluation of peers

Parental monitoring

School Poor attitude, performance Poor attitude, performance Academic failure

Commitment to school Recognition for

involvement in conventional activities

Peer group Weak social ties Antisocial peers

Weak social ties Antisocial, delinquent peers Gang membership

Friends who engage in conventional behavior

Community Neighborhood crime, drugs Neighborhood disorganization

* Age of onset not known. ** Males only.

Source: Adapted from Office of the Surgeon General, 2001.

Risk Factors for Delinquency: An Overview

5

Description of Risk Factors

Various researchers categorize risk factors in

different ways. For the purposes of this article, risk

factors fall under three broad categories:

individual, social, and community. Each of these

categories includes several subcategories (e.g.,

family- and peer-related risk factors are grouped

under the social category). Because an exhaustive

review of all known risk factors linked to

delinquency is beyond the scope of this article,3 the

following summarizes the major risk factors

associated with juvenile delinquency and violence.

Individual-Level Factors

Prenatal and perinatal factors. Several studies

have linked prenatal and perinatal complications

with later delinquent or criminal behavior (Kandel

et al., 1989; Kandel and Mednick, 1991; Raine,

Brennan, and Mednick, 1994). Prenatal and

perinatal complications can lead to a range of

health problems that negatively influence

development (McCord, Widom, and Crowell,

2001). In a prospective study of youth at high risk

for delinquency, Kandel and Mednick (1991) found

that 80 percent of violent offenders rated high in

delivery complications compared with 47 percent

of nonoffenders.

However, some of the evidence regarding the

association between pregnancy and delivery

complications and delinquency has been conflicting

(Hawkins et al., 1998). For example, neither

Denno’s (1990) study of Philadelphia youth nor

Farrington’s (1997) Cambridge study found a

connection between pregnancy and delivery

complications and violence. Mednick and Kandel

(1988) linked pregnancy and delivery complications

to violent behavior, but not to nonviolent criminal

behavior. In addition, some studies have shown that

children whose mothers smoked cigarettes

frequently during pregnancy were more likely to

display conduct disorders and other problem

behaviors (Fergusson, Horwood, and Lynskey,

1993; Wakschlag et al., 1997). Although the results

are inconsistent, the available data illustrate the

need to study further the relationship between

prenatal care, delivery complications, and the

resulting health problems and juvenile delinquency

(Hawkins et al., 1998).

Psychological, behavioral, and mental

characteristics. Several individual-specific

characteristics are linked to delinquency. Tremblay

and LeMarquand (2001:141) remarked that “the

best social behavior characteristic to predict

delinquent behavior before age 13 appears to be

aggression.” In addition, Hawkins and colleagues

(1998:113) reviewed several studies and reported “a

3 For a complete review of risk factors, see chapter 3 in Juvenile Crime, Juvenile Justice (McCord, Widom, and Crowell, 2001).

Risk Factors for Delinquency: An Overview

6

positive relationship between hyperactivity,

concentration or attention problems, impulsivity

and risk taking and later violent behavior.” Low

verbal IQ and delayed language development have

both been linked to delinquency; these links remain

even after controlling for race and class (Moffitt,

Lynam, and Silva, 1994; Seguin et al., 1995).

Similarly, problems at school can lead to

delinquency. Herrenkohl and colleagues

(2001:223) noted that “children with low academic

performance, low commitment to school, and low

educational aspirations during the elementary and

middle school grades are at higher risk for child

delinquency than are other children.”

Social Factors

Family structure. Family characteristics such as

poor parenting skills, family size, home discord,

child maltreatment, and antisocial parents are risk

factors linked to juvenile delinquency (Derzon and

Lipsey, 2000; Wasserman and Seracini, 2001).

McCord’s (1979) study of 250 boys found that

among boys at age 10, the strongest predictors of

later convictions for violent offenses (up to age 45)

were poor parental supervision, parental conflict,

and parental aggression, including harsh, punitive

discipline. Some research has linked being raised in

a single-parent family with increased delinquency

(McCord, Widom, and Crowell, 2001); however,

when researchers control for socioeconomic

conditions, these differences are minimized

(Austin, 1978; Crockett, Eggebeen, and Hawkins,

1993). Some research has shown that children from

families with four or more children have an

increased chance of offending (Wasserman and

Seracini, 2001; West and Farrington, 1973).

Peer influences. Several studies have found a

consistent relationship between involvement in a

delinquent peer group and delinquent behavior.

Lipsey and Derzon (1998) noted that for youth ages

12–14, a key predictor variable for delinquency is

the presence of antisocial peers. According to

McCord and colleagues (2001:80), “Factors such as

peer delinquent behavior, peer approval of

delinquent behavior, attachment or allegiance to

peers, time spent with peers, and peer pressure for

deviance have all been associated with adolescent

antisocial behavior.” Conversely, Elliot (1994)

reported that spending time with peers who

disapprove of delinquent behavior may curb later

violence. The influence of peers and their

acceptance of delinquent behavior is significant,

and this relationship is magnified when youth have

little interaction with their parents (Steinberg,

1987).

Community Factors

Farrington (2000:5) noted that “only in the 1990’s

have the longitudinal researchers begun to pay

sufficient attention to neighborhood and community

factors, and there is still a great need for them to

Risk Factors for Delinquency: An Overview

7

investigate immediate situational influences on

offending.” As described below, the environment

in which youth are reared can influence the

likelihood of delinquency.

School policies. The National Research Council

and the Institute of Medicine reviewed the impact

of school policies concerning grade retention,4

suspension and expulsion, and school tracking of

juvenile delinquency. These organizations reported

that such policies, which disproportionately affect

minorities, have negative consequences for at-risk

youth (McCord, Widom, and Crowell, 2001). For

example, suspension and expulsion do not appear

to reduce undesirable behavior, and both are linked

to increased delinquent behavior. In addition,

Heal’s (1978) cross-sectional study of primary and

secondary schools in England found that large

schools with formal and severe punishment

structures in place had more incidents of students

misbehaving.

Neighborhood. Existing research points to a

powerful connection between residing in an

adverse environment and participating in criminal

acts (McCord, Widom, and Crowell, 2001).

Sociological theories of deviance hypothesize that

“disorganized neighborhoods have weak social

control networks; that weak social control,

resulting from isolation among residents and high

residential turnover, allows criminal activity to go

unmonitored” (Herrenkohl et al., 2001:221).

Although researchers debate the interaction between

environmental and personal factors, most agree that

“living in a neighborhood where there are high

levels of poverty and crime increases the risk of

involvement in serious crime for all children

growing up there” (McCord, Widom, and Crowell,

2001:89).

Conclusion

The risk factor paradigm is a promising approach to

understanding the problem of juvenile delinquency.

The Program of Research on the Causes and

Correlates of Delinquency, partially funded by

OJJDP, is one example of a longitudinal study of

youth that is helping to detect the importance of

various risk factors for delinquency. Future research

should continue to study the interrelationships

between risk factors and delinquency and attempt to

clarify how risk factors interact to create a

cumulative effect. Similarly, researchers should

continue studying the interaction between risk and

protective factors and exploring why some youth

exposed to multiple risk factors do not commit

delinquent acts.

The development of the risk factor model, however,

has its problems. Farrington (2000:16) remarks that

“the main problems lie in the definition and

identification of risk and protective factors, in4 Grade retention occurs when teachers hold students back a grade level at the end of the school year.

Risk Factors for Delinquency: An Overview

8

establishing what are causes, in choosing

interventions based on identified risk and

protective factors, in evaluating multiple

component and area-based interventions, and in

assessing the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness

of components of interventions.”

One question confronting those who would develop

delinquency prevention programs based on risk

factor research is whether a given risk factor can

easily be changed. For example, research has

shown that low socioeconomic status is associated

with increased levels of delinquency. Although

socioeconomic conditions may be hard to change,

programs may seek to increase certain protective

factors to offset the risk. Other risk factors are

more amenable to change. Poor parenting, for

example, can be addressed by programs that teach

parenting skills and provide family support

services.

The prevention of delinquency is a complex

problem with no simple solutions. Risk factor

analysis offers a way to determine which youth are

most likely to become delinquent. The approach

also allows practitioners to tailor prevention

programs to the unique needs of individual youth

and communities.

References

Austin, R.L. 1978. Race, father absence and female

delinquency. Criminology 15(4):487–504.

Coie, J.D., Watt, N.F., West, S.G., Hawkins, D.,

Asarnow, J.R., Markman, H.J., Ramey, S.L., Shure,

M.B., and Long, B. 1993. The science of

prevention: A conceptual framework and some

directions for a national research program.

American Psychologist 48(10):1013–1022.

Crockett, L.J., Eggebeen, D.J., and Hawkins, A.J.

1993. Father’s presence and young children’s

behavioral and cognitive adjustment. Journal of

Family Issues 14(3):355–377.

Denno, D.W. 1990. Biology and Violence: From

Birth to Adulthood. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge

University Press.

Derzon, J.H., and Lipsey, M.W. 2000. The

correspondence of family features with problem,

aggressive, criminal and violent behavior.

Unpublished manuscript. Nashville, TN: Institute

for Public Policy Studies, Vanderbilt University.

Elliott, D.S. 1994. Serious violent offenders: Onset,

developmental course, and termination—The

American Society of Criminology 1993 presidential

address. Criminology 32(1):1–21.

Risk Factors for Delinquency: An Overview

9

Farrington, D.P. 1997. Early prediction of violent

and non-violent youthful offending. European

Journal on Criminal Policy and Research

5(2):51–66.

Farrington, D.P. 2000. Explaining and preventing

crime: The globalization of knowledge—The

American Society of Criminology 1999

presidential address. Criminology 38(1):1–24.

Fergusson, D.M., Horwood, L.J., and Lynskey,

M.T. 1993. Maternal smoking before and after

pregnancy: Effects on behavioral outcomes in

middle childhood. Pediatrics 92(6):815–822.

Hawkins, J.D., Herrenkohl, T.L., Farrington, D.P.,

Brewer, D., Catalano, R.F., and Harachi, T.W.

1998. A review of predictors of youth violence. In

Serious and Violent Juvenile Offenders: Risk

Factors and Successful Interventions, edited by R.

Loeber and D.P. Farrington. Thousand Oaks, CA:

Sage Publications, pp. 106–146.

Heal, K. 1978. Misbehavior among school

children: The roles of the school in strategies for

prevention. Policy and Politics 6:321–332.

Herrenkohl, T.L., Hawkins, J.D., Chung, I., Hill,

K.G., and Battin-Pearson, S. 2001. School and

community risk factors and interventions. In Child

Delinquents: Development, Intervention, and

Service Needs, edited by R. Loeber and D.P.

Farrington. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications,

pp. 211–246.

Herrenkohl, T.L., Maguin, E., Hill, K.G., Hawkins,

J.D., Abbott, R.D., and Catalano, R.F. 2000.

Developmental risk factors for youth violence.

Journal of Adolescent Health 26(7):176–186.

Kandel, E., Brennan, P.A., Mednick, S.A., and

Michelson, N.M. 1989. Minor psychical anomalies

and recidivistic adult violent criminal behavior.

Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavia 79:103–107.

Kandel, E., and Mednick, S.A. 1991. Perinatal

complications predict violent offending.

Criminology 29(3):519–529.

Kazdin, A.E., Kraemer, H.C., Kessler, R.C., Kupfer,

D.J., and Offord, D.R. 1997. Contributions of risk

factor research to developmental psychopathology.

Clinical Psychology Review 17:375–406.

Lipsey, M.W., and Derzon, J.H. 1998. Predictors of

violent or serious delinquency in adolescence and

early adulthood: A synthesis of longitudinal

research. In Serious and Violent Juvenile Offenders:

Risk Factors and Successful Interventions, edited by

R. Loeber and D.P. Farrington. Thousand Oaks,

CA: Sage Publications, pp. 86–105.

McCord, J. 1979. Some child-rearing antecedents of

criminal behavior in adult men. Journal of

Risk Factors for Delinquency: An Overview

10

Personality and Social Psychology

37(9):1477–1486.

McCord, J., Widom, C.S., and Crowell, N.A., eds.

2001. Juvenile Crime, Juvenile Justice. Panel on

Juvenile Crime: Prevention, Treatment, and

Control. Washington, DC: National Academy

Press.

Mednick, S.A., and Kandel, E.S. 1988. Congenital

determinants of violence. Bulletin of the American

Academy of Psychiatry and the Law

16(2):101–109.

Mercy, J.A., and O’Carroll, P.W. 1998. New

directions in violence prevention: The

public health arena. Violence and Victims

3(4):285–301.

Moffitt, T.E., Lynam, D., and Silva, P.A. 1994.

Neuropsychological tests predict persistent male

delinquency. Criminology 32(2):101–124.

Moore, M.H. 1995. Public health and criminal

justice approaches to prevention. In Building a

Safer Society: Strategic Approaches to Crime

Prevention, edited by M. Tonry and D. Farrington.

Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.

Mrazek, P.J., and Haggerty, R.J., eds. 1994.

Reducing Risks for Mental Disorders: Frontiers for

Preventative Intervention Research. Washington,

DC: National Academy Press.

Office of the Surgeon General. 2001. Youth

Violence: A Report of the Surgeon General.

Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Health and

Human Services, Office of the Secretary, Office of

Public Health and Science, Office of the Surgeon

General. Retrieved from

www.surgeongeneral.gov/library/youthviolence.

Pollard, J.A., Hawkins, D., and Arthur, M.W. 1999.

Risk and protective factors: Are both necessary to

understand diverse behavioral outcomes in

adolescence? Social Work Research 23(3):145–158.

Raine, A., Brennan, P., and Mednick, S.A. 1994.

Birth complications combined with early maternal

rejection at age 1 year predispose to violent crime at

age 18 years. Archives of General Psychiatry

53:544–549.

Rutter, M. 1987. Psychosocial resilience and

protective mechanisms. American Journal of

Orthopsychiatry 57(3):316–331.

Risk Factors for Delinquency: An Overview

11

Seguin, J.R., Pihl, R.O., Harden, P.W., Tremblay,

R.E., and Boulrice, B. 1995. Cognitive and

neuropsychological characteristics of psychically

aggressive boys. Journal of Abnormal Psychology

104(4):614–624.

Steinberg, L. 1987. Single parents, stepparents, and

the susceptibility of adolescents to antisocial peer

pressure. Child Development 58(1):269–275.

Tremblay, R.E., and LeMarquand, D. 2001.

Individual risk and protective factors. In Child

Delinquents: Development, Intervention, and

Service Needs, edited by R. Loeber and D.P.

Farrington. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage

Publications, pp. 137–164.

Wakschlag, L.S., Lahey, B.B., Loeber, R., Green,

S.M., Gordon, R.A., and Leventhal, B.L. 1997.

Maternal smoking during pregnancy and the risk of

conduct disorder in boys. Archives of General

Psychiatry 54(7):670–676.

Wasserman, G.A., and Seracini, A.G. 2001. Family

risk factors and interventions. In Child

Delinquents: Development, Intervention, and

Service Needs, edited by R. Loeber and D.P.

Farrington. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage

Publications, pp. 165–189.

West, D.J., and Farrington, D.P. 1973. Who

Becomes Delinquent? London, England:

Heinemann.