Global East Asia response paper

Gavan McCormack

March 21 Wed. recitation � Steger, chap. 4 “The political dimension of

globalization” (2017) � Scappatura, “The US Pivot to Asia, the

China spectre, and the Australian-American alliance” (2014)

� McCormack, “North Korea and a rules- based order for the Indo-Pacific, East Asia, and the world” (2017)

Chap 4 response papers due Tues. March 20, 10:00 PM Identify an important new concept, theory, or insight about globalization that you learned in Steger chap 4 and discuss it in relation to the assigned readings: Scappatura “The U.S. Pivot to Asia” and McCormack “North Korea and a rules-based order.”

Scappatura review “The US Pivot to Asia, the China spectre, and the Australian-American Alliance”

Conventional wisdom about EA regional security � US geopolitical primacy in East Asia serves

to maintain peace. � Prevents rise of Japan’s militarism � Offsets China’s growing power � Deters North Korea’s ambitions

Scappatura’s thesis � US hegemony is incompatible with the

emergence of a peaceful and stable Asia. � ‘Emergence’ implies he is talking about peace

and stability in the long term.

Hub-and-spokes bilateral military strategy: within nation-state system

US

ROK

Japan

AustraliaCh ina

DPRK

Multilateral economic reality: outside nation-state system

US

China

ROK

Australia

Japan

State-centric thinking is mistaken From perspective of nation-state, it looks like there is a global shift in power to China derived from the rapid growth of the Chinese national economy. � This is a mistake. China’s rise is part of a transnational phenomenon ref lecting the rising power of the multinational corporation (MNC) in a global system in which American firms retain predominance. � cf. Chan, Pun, Selden’s article Politics of Global

Production

Obama administrations two- pronged strategy to contain China 1. Military “Pivot to Asia” 2. Trade “TPP—Trans-Pacific Partnership”

� Excluded China � Designed to preserve the status quo (or

increase U.S. hegemony) and contribute to regional stability (short term)

Trump administrations one- pronged strategy to contain China 1. Military “Pivot to Asia” 2. Trade “TPP—Trans-Pacific Partnership”

� Creates new opportunities for China to expand its role in regional trade agreements

� May contribute to change in status quo and lead to regional stability in the long term

Electronic devices OFF

Gavan McCormack “North Korea and a rules-based order for the Indo-Pacific, East Asia, and the world” (2017)

ROK “sunshine” policy and DPRK � Carried out by “progressive” presidents of South Korea

� Park Chung Hee, 3rd president

� Chun Doo-hwan, 5th president

� Roh Tae-woo, 6th president (1988 Olympic Games) � Kim Young-sam, 7th president

� Kim Dae-jung, 8th president (1998-2003) � Roh Moo-hyun, 9th president (2003-2008)

� Lee Myung-bak, 10th president (2008-2012) � Park Geun-hye, 11th president (2012-2017)

� [Moon Jae-in, 12th president (2017-)]

Korea’s geopolitical vulnerability

Korea’s vulnerable location � 1905 Russo-Japanese War determined control of

Manchuria and Korean Peninsula

� 1910 Japan annexed Korea

� 1931 Japan launched invasion of Manchuria from Korea

� 1945 USSR launched offensive into Manchuria and Korea

� 1947 Korea occupied and divided by USSR & US

� 1950 North attempted to reunite peninsula in civil war

� Cold War Era USSR, China, US competed over Koreas

� Today Armed stand-off continues across DMZ

Six Part Talks � Six Party Talks over nuclear weapons 2001-11

� Russia, China, U.S., Japan, North Korea, South Korea

Joint military exercises

THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) Anti-ballistic missile system deployed in ROK July, 2017

Result: tensions are very high

JSA—Joint Security Area dir. Park Chan-wook (2000): Panmunjom

1945 division at 38th parallel

DMZ—1953 Armistice divided Korean peninsula near 38th parallel

Symbolism of Demilitarized Zone 1. In March, 2017, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson

went to DMZ in symbolic show of force. 2. In April, 2017, Vice President Mike Pence was

supposed to stay inside the Freedom House in the Joint Security Area but instead went outside, saying he wanted the North Koreans to “see our resolve in my face.”

3. Nov. 7-8, 2017, President Donald Trump tried to visit the DMZ during his visit to South Korea but his helicopters were forced to turn back by thick fog.

DMZ: Focus of U.S. military resolve

DMZ: Focus of Korean unification

Korean Unification Flag

Unified Korea security options 1. Continued alignment with the West/U.S. 2. Return to historic pattern of Korea in

China’s orbit 3. Strategic independence—nonaligned but

with strong army to protect itself 4. Neutrality—security guaranteed by

regional alliance

Post-unification security options 1. Continued alignment with the West/U.S.—(Japan,

U.S., South Korea’s choice; China’s nightmare) 2. Return to historic pattern of Korea in China’s orbit—

(China’s choice; Japan’s nightmare) 3. Strategic independence—nonaligned but with strong

army to protect itself (choice of many Koreans; okay with Japan, too)

4. Neutrality—security guaranteed by regional alliance (okay with China, but not with Japan—they see a weak Korea as tempting to China)

Dialogue and integration results Two possible options: 1. Two Koreas coexist peacefully as

independent nation-states 2. North & South unify into a single nation-

state

Russian National Committee (2010) “For Russia, the most desired outcome is national reconciliation and the peaceful coexistence of the two Korean states on the path to an eventual unification of Korea over a long period of time. � The task of Russian policy is to not allow the

“explosive” scenario to unfold and to explain that the most advantageous scenario is gradual convergence.

2018: Increased pressure on DPRK � UN & Autonomous sanctions instituted � China, India cut off trade and coal

purchases � U.S. & Japan increase joint military exercises

with South Korea � Trump and Kim Jong Un exchange

antagonistic rhetoric

Preconditions for negotiation 1. “Complete submission”—permanent halt to DPRK missile and nuclear activities � Proposed by U.S. and its allies, notably Japan and

Australia 2. “Double suspension”—DPRK missile and nuclear activities suspended in exchange for suspension of large- scale US-ROK military exercises � Proposed by China and Russia; supported by other

states such as Germany and France, and by prominent U.S. figures such as former Defense Secretary William Perry

Complete submission not in North Korea’s DNA “Simply to ‘denuclearize’ without resolving the problems that led it to ‘nuclearize’ in the first place, would be to present itself naked and defenseless to its enemies.” (p. 2)

Group discussion Which proposal do you think makes the most sense for long-term regional security? A. “Complete submission”—permanent halt

to DPRK missile and nuclear activities, followed by negotiation

B. “Double suspension”—DPRK missile and nuclear activities suspended in exchange for suspension of large-scale US-ROK military exercises, followed by negotiation

If North Korea collapses…. Steger Chap. 4 discussed inability of nation-states to cope with trans-border migration f lows (p. 68)

Example: War in Syria 2011-2016 Population: 23 million � Dead: UN count to 2014=250,000 (470,000) � Injured: 1.88 million � Internally displaced: 6.6 million � Refugees: 5 million Total: 13.95 million dead, injured, displaced, refugees

Ai Weiwei Explores the “Human Flow” of Refugees and Finds an America That Lost Its Conscience https://interc.pt/2ykaelw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-cj1USHAfQ (2.23)

Influx of refugees into China, ROK?

In the event of collapse, an equivalent number of North Koreans could potentially be displaced: � Population: 25 million � Total: 15 million dead, injured, internally

displaced, refugees?

Chap 4 responses papers due Tues. March 20 at 10:00pm Identify an important new concept, theory, or insight about globalization that you learned in Steger chap 4 and discuss it in relation to the assigned readings: Scappatura “The U.S. Pivot to Asia” and McCormack “North Korea and a rules-based order.”