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ISRAEL:

A Geopolitical Analysis

Group 3:

PPOG 506: Introduction to Geopolitics and International Diplomacy

June 18, 2017

PART I – INTRODUCTION

Geopolitically, the nation of Israel sits in a precarious position in one of the most precarious regions in the world. Surrounded by enemies who openly assert their intent and emerging capacity to “wipe Israel from the face of the earth,” as well as facing non-state threats within the nation and in its near-abroad, Israel must prepare itself militarily, politically, economically, and socially to defend its right to exist. Israeli and international geostrategic thinkers must understand the interplaying variables that set conditions for either success or failure in this quest for survival.

This work will study these variables using a simplified version of the Department of Defense’s PMESII-PT framework of operational variables (Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information, Infrastructure, Physical Environment, and Time). It will explore them in the context of the active social, political, cultural, and economic environment; the structure of political stability and sustainability; access to strategic human, natural and economic resources; access to energy, commodities and technology; access to allies and enemies; supply chain and trade routes; and local and regional trade partnerships. It will then attempt to synthesize these variables in such a way that they become useful for drawing conclusions about Israel’s readiness to survive and thrive given the obstacles it will continue to encounter for the foreseeable future. It will be shown that Israel is prepared to face and overcome its threats and prosper because a PMESII-PT analysis, despite revealing conspicuous weaknesses, also demonstrate that Israel’s character and geopolitical strengths positioned to remain a regional power.

PART II - Analysis

Analytical Framework

The Department of Defense uses the PMESII-PT framework for analyzing an area’s operational environment, which U.S. Army Training Circular (TC) 7-102 defines as “…a composite of the conditions, circumstances, and influences that affect the employment of capabilities and bear on the decisions of [leaders]” (U.S. Army 2013, 3-11). The following subsections will explore these variables and provide insight about Israel’s historical, current and potential geopolitical readiness.

Political Variable

The Government of Israel is a parliamentary democracy with no formal constitution, though “some functions of a constitution are filled by the Declaration of Establishment (1948), the Basic Laws, and the Law of Return (as amended)” (CIA 2017). Its Executive Branch consists of a President as its Chief of State, and a Prime Minister as its Head of Government (CIA 2017). Its legislature consists of a unicameral Knesset of 120 seats; its Supreme Court consists of a Chief Justice and 14 Judges (CIA 2017). Its legal system is a mix of “English common law, British Mandate regulations, and Jewish, Christian, and Muslim religious laws” (CIA 2017).

Though “Israel proclaimed Jerusalem as its capital in 1950, the international community does not recognize it as such; the US, like all other countries, maintains its embassy in Tel Aviv-Yafo” (CIA 2017). There are numerous political parties in Israeli politics with varying degrees of popularity and influence. This often contributes to difficulties in forming coalition governments under Israel’s parliamentary system. Additionally, there are several interest groups applying political pressure in the areas of military and defense, humanitarian issues, and territorial and settlement issues (CIA 2017). “…Israel…look[s] to America as [its] main supporter…which had begun as begun out of domestic political and humanitarian concerns.” (Cohen 2015, 68, 77). Further, Israel’s relationship with the U.S. empowers it to ignore European nations - who many Israelis view as pro-Palestinian - in the Arab-Israeli negotiations (Cohen 2015, 401). Despite its internal ethnic and religious tensions and external threats, Cohen characterizes Israel as a viable regional power, though in the same league as Turkey, Australia, Vietnam, Iran, and South Africa (2015, 447).

Israel’s parliamentary system, with ten political parties eligible for seats, creates a thin coalition which threatens stability (A.L.G 2015). To protect the Jewish character of the country, those wishing to emigrate and become a citizen must demonstrate Jewish roots (Immigration 2017). Current law also prohibits granting citizenship to the spouses and children of Israeli Arabs from the West Bank and Gaza (Mossawa 2017). These laws simultaneously preserve the Jewishness of Israel, and serve as fodder for those who wish to label it an apartheid state (Eglash 2017).

The last election in 2015 resulted in Benjamin Netanyahu of the Likud Party maintaining his status as Prime Minister. Ten parties earned seats in parliament. Netanyahu and his Likud joined four other parties to gain the minimum required 61 seats, in the final two hours allowed by law. Meeting the deadline, in Netanyahu’s words, was necessary “in order to give a strong and stable government” (BBC 2015).

Media commentary in Israel following formation of the government was widely negative, employing words and phrases like, “unimpressed,” “unprecedented farce,” “would fall prey to ‘blackmail,’” “talent to destroy,” “capitulating to unreasonable demands,” and “dysfunctional political system.” Such is the nature of democracy, especially the parliamentary type, as well as the nature of “populist armchair critics” in the media (BBC 2015).

Despite the internal struggles of the Jewish state, its Jewish citizens and politicians are firmly united that it will survive as a Jewish state. Netanyahu’s governing majority is slim, threatening the regime’s stability. With the newly elected Trump administration in the United States, however, the Israeli government has a superpower advocate on the world stage, which tips the scales in favor of its stability and sustainability.

Military Variable

The Israeli military forces consist of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), the Israel Naval Force (IN), and Israel Air Force (IAF). As of 2015, Israel spent approximately 5.38% of its $297 Billion GDP on military and defense. “…with American help, Israel [has] developed a formidable military machine supported by a strong intelligence capacity which [is] superior to those of its combined Arab enemies” (Cohen 2015, 77). “…In the late 1950s [France] provided Israel with the nuclear know-how and technology that has enabled it to acquire a nuclear arsenal…[though]…Jerusalem has never publicly admitted that it possesses such weapons” (Cohen 2015, 380). Israel has compulsory military service at age 18 for Jews and Druze; voluntary service at age 17 for Christians, Muslims and Circassians. Both sexes are obligated to military service. Israel’s conscript service obligation is: 32 months for enlisted men and 24 months for enlisted women, but varies based on military occupation; it is 48 months for officers; pilots commit to 9 years’ service; and there is a reserve obligation to age 41-51 for men, and age 24 for women (CIA 2017).

It could be said that Israel’s defense forces were created out of paramilitary groups. “By 1945, [the Jewish settlement’s] prime military arm, the Haganah (or “Defence”), was a 40,000-strong force—the most powerful in the Middle East after the British army. The Haganah was against using force to end British rule, but two of its offshoots, the Irgun and Lehi, had no such qualms” (Hoffman, 2015). Israel suffers from a number of non-state threats, most notoriously, the Palestinian Hamas group. However, indigenous Israeli groups opposed to giving up settlements cause significant problems for the Israelis (Margalit 2015).

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the Iranian nuclear agreement as a "Stunning historic mistake" (Associated Press 2015). However, the political turbulence created by Obama’s Iran deal had a second order effect that unexpectedly reinforced allied relationships between regional neighbors in the Arab world, creating an environment that can allow the United States to enter and expand operations in the region.

Israel and her neighbors, Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia had previously (at best) tolerated each other. But now, as a result of the Obama deal, they are finding themselves embracing their relationships in an effort to counter their common adversary, Iran. Prior to the Iran deal, Israel was loosely aligned with Egypt. The 1980 Egypt–Israel Peace Treaty enhanced their relationship and positively influenced the ability of the United States to capitalize on operations in the region. In the treaty, Egypt (to the objection of the rest of the Arab world) was the first Arab nation to officially recognize the State of Israel. Egypt also agreed to the safe transit of Israeli ships through the Suez Canal, ensuring the free movement of all international maritime commerce (Carter 1978). Capitalizing on this existing relationship, Saudi Arabia and Jordan recognized the benefit of an emerging coalition between themselves, Israel and Egypt to act as a barrier to Iranian aggression in the region. Former Israel Defense Force Chief of Staff Moshe Ya’alon recognized the changing geopolitics created by the Iran nuclear deal, “there is no longer an Arab coalition poised against us” (JNi.Media 2017).

For the US, Israel, and their regional allies, the Iran nuclear deal is bad geopolitics. It allows Iran to continue to enrich uranium, lifts financial sanctions and does not link Iranian support of terrorist activities to measurable consequences. However, the unified coalition that the deal created can be leveraged by the United States to reinforce strategic regional relationships, counter subversive politics and expand geopolitical operations in the region.

Economic Variable

“Israel has a technologically advanced free market economy, though the nation usually posts sizable trade deficits, which are offset by tourism and other service exports, as well as significant foreign investment inflows” (CIA 2017). As of 2016, Israel’s unemployment rate was estimated to be between 5 and 10%. Israel’s natural resources include: timber, potash, copper ore, natural gas, phosphate rock, magnesium bromide, clays and sand. As of 2015, Israel’s exports included machinery and equipment, software, cut diamonds, agricultural products, chemicals, textiles and apparel. Its export partners included: the US 27.5%, Hong Kong 8%, UK 6.1%, and China 4.9%. Its imports included: raw materials, military equipment, investment goods, rough diamonds, fuels, grain and consumer goods. Its import partners included US 13%, China 9.3%, Switzerland 7.1%, Germany 6.1%, Belgium 5.3%, Italy 4%. Israel’s 2016 budget deficit was estimated at approximately $8 Billion (CIA 2017).

Economic divisions are also significant. The poverty rate of about 25% is more than double the average in Western countries. More than half of ultra-Orthodox Jews and Arabs live below the poverty line. The steady flow of new immigrants from over one hundred countries exacerbates the problem. New arrivals frequently do not speak Hebrew, the official language, making integration even more difficult. All of these factors have put pressure on the social welfare system, which is reducing funding to education, national health insurance, housing assistance, and social services (ACRI 2011).

There is some disagreement as to the impact energy has on the global economy. While some believe energy has no substantial role, others believe energy can significantly impact economic growth or could even contribute to a recession (King, et al. 2015, 12949-50). Thus, “[a]ccess to a sufficient quantity of affordable energy and energy services is one of several important factors . . . for modern living standards in an industrial or post-industrial economy.” (King, et al. 2015, 12950).

Historically, Israel has largely been dependent on other nations for energy resources. However, that may soon change as Israel has recently discovered a large natural gas field in the Mediterranean Sea. Israel is hopeful this will help the country to become more independent as well as assist them in developing allies by exporting natural gas to neighboring countries (Baker 2017).

While Israel is more limited in natural resources than other countries, it has made numerous advances in science and technology. Israel is well known for its research and development and has numerous technology start-ups. Additionally, technology has made up nearly half of Israel’s exports and thus, has had a significant impact on its economy (Moskvitch 2011). Moreover, Israeli scientists are making great strides in various sectors. For instance, amid one of worst droughts in its history, Israel developed desalination plants to meet, and now exceed, its freshwater needs. This is just one example of the many technological advances Israel makes each year (Jacobsen 2016).

There is no doubt that Israel is located in one of the world’s hotbeds of turmoil on all sides. Recovering from previous severed relations between the United States and the Israeli government, much of how the United States operates affects Israel’s local and regional relations. According to James Phillips, a Senior Research Fellow at The Heritage Foundation, there are three major fronts to combat in moving towards peace in the region and forming better relations; counterterrorism, containing Iran, defusing the Arab-Israeli conflict (Phillips 2017). Phillips eludes to The United States taking role in, “…repairing bilateral relationships to build multination coalitions to unite Arab leaders against ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and other Islamist threats” (Phillips 2017). Increasing stability in the area can only improve neighboring relations for the Israeli government, and some lawmakers feel the best way to accomplish this is by strengthening already established economic partnerships. Israel leads the world in innovative cyber technology and with the policy improvements recommended by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, lawmakers hope to strengthen US-Israeli economic partnerships. The economic backbone of Israel is important not only for helping strengthen the U.S. economy, but also in dealing with Egypt and the Gaza strip, the Hamas controlled overrun in Palestine, and instability in the Negev region of Israel, permitting security for Jordan and access to the Mediterranean (Dahl, 2017). The Observer points out that improvement in these areas helps recognize Jewish sovereignty in their own homeland while helping to maintain security and improve botched relations and displaced Palestinians (Dahl, 2017). For now, Israel ranks 36th in The Heritage Foundation’s Index for Economic Freedom, but there is a strong argument to be made that the nation could become one of the world’s powers with increased economic value and tighter regional partnerships upon reaching peace (Kim 2017). There are no immediate solutions to Israel’s many issues, but the United States has a unique opportunity to help strengthen another nation and guide it toward stability and peace.

Social Variable

Israel’s population as of July 2016 was estimated at approximately 8,174,527 which includes populations of the Golan Heights of Golan Sub-District, and also East Jerusalem, which was annexed by Israel after 1967. As of 2015, approximately 21,000 Israeli settlers lived in the Golan Heights, and as of 2014, approximately 201,000 Israeli settlers lived in East Jerusalem. The population is concentrated in and around Tel-Aviv, as well as around the Sea of Galilee. The south remains sparsely populated except for the shore of the Gulf of Aqaba. As of 2015, approximately 92.1% of the population lived in urban areas like: Tel Aviv-Yafo 3.608 million; Haifa 1.097 million; Jerusalem (proclaimed capital) 839,000. As of 2015, Israel’s ethnic mix was comprised of: Jewish 74.8% (of which Israel-born 75.6%, Europe/America/Oceania-born 16.6%, Africa-born 4.9%, Asia-born 2.9%), non-Jewish 25.2% (mostly Arab). As of 2015, the religious breakdown of Israel’s population was: Jewish 74.8%, Muslim 17.6%, Christian 2%, Druze 1.6%, other 4%. Hebrew is the official language, with Arabic used officially for the Arab minority. English is the most commonly used foreign language. The median age is 29.7, and the literacy rate is 97.8% (CIA 2017).

“The average Israeli woman has three babies in her lifetime, nearly double the fertility rate for the rest of the industrialized countries in the OECD. That, accompanied by heavy Jewish immigration from the former Soviet Union, has seen Israel's population double in the last 25 years. The birth rate is even higher among Israel's Arab community and more than double among its ultra-Orthodox Jews, two groups that also have low participation in the workforce, dragging the economy down. Today's population of 8.4 million is forecast to reach 15.6 million by 2059 and 20.6 million in a high case scenario, meaning the small country could simply run out of room (Cohen and Scheer 2015).

Regarding human captial, “a high level of education is particularly common in Israel…[which could] translate into higher earnings and lower risk of unemployment” (Regnier-Laurent 2014). This provides Israel with at least a satisfactory level of human and intellectual capital. In addition to the obvious religious-ethnic conflict between Muslims and Jews, the issue of Israeli settlements has also caused significant social volatility (Rettman 2017 and Lieberman 2017).

Born in 1948, Israel is a country that simultaneously exhibits what may be the world’s greatest unity, along with its deepest divisions. Zionism unites the Jews, which draws them to Israel from a worldwide diaspora that began over 2500 years ago. The deepest division is between Israelis and Arabs, who have fought five major wars since the nation was born. Israel won each of these wars of invasion. Now, over four million Palestinian Arabs live behind Israeli-created anti-terrorism barriers in the West Bank and Gaza, awaiting a two-state solution (Cohen 2015, 397-402, and Toameh 2013).

Religious differences are powerful. The Old City of Jerusalem is divided into Jewish, Muslim, Christian and Armenian Quarters. Though united over Israel, Jews themselves are divided along religious lines. Jews are primarily secular, liberal and global in outlook. The smaller Jewish faction is “religious, [and] conservative-ethnocentric” (Liran-Alper 2010).

Despite conflicts and poverty, “Israeli culture is a heterogeneous, dynamic, and vital entity that is not easy to define.” Although many cultures and sub-cultures exist in Israel, the national policy is to foster, in order of priority: nurturing a connection between the Jewish people with their language and history; supporting diverse cultures within society, to include Arabs; and opening Israeli society to the world, without diluting its uniqueness (Liran-Alper 2010).

Information Variable

Israel might be considered “the most developed – [and] the most globalized – country in the Middle East” (Barnett 2004, 219). With a population of roughly 8 million, Israel boasts over 3 million fixed line telephone subscriptions, over 10 million cellular phone subscriptions, and over 6 million internet users (CIA 2017). “Israel is connected to the world's major commercial, financial and academic data networks and is fully integrated into international communications systems by means of underwater fiber-optic lines and satellite link-ups” (The Land 2013).

Regarding the press, “Israel hosts a lively, pluralistic media environment in which press freedom is generally respected” (Israel Profile 2017). In recent years, however, Israeli media have experienced conflicts with Israeli politicians over censorship - including with Prime Minister Netanyahu - a situation that has prompted Freedom House to rate the Israeli press as only “partly free” (Israel Profile 2017). Israeli media outlets have reported that “Netanyahu’s response to the critical investigative report of acclaimed journalist Ilana Dayan was the latest in a series of alarmed responses from the government that have been aimed at neutralizing the media and turning it from a tool of public service into a tool of government” (Peretz 2016).

Israel is no stranger to information warfare - or propaganda - using technology. “Israel is one of the world’s most technologically proficient countries.” The military and witting citizens alike use “the virtual space [for].. command, control, and information exchange among those associated with military and extra-government activities…” (Avidor and Glenn 2016, 99-101).

Israel’s technological capability is seen in its integration of C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) (Information Warfare 2014). Despite this – and the romantic vision of Israeli intelligence agencies like Mossad - in 2002, Ephraim Kahana outlined a series of political, institutional, and budgetary problems within the Israeli national and military intelligence community which has caused several intelligence failures and limited strategic decision-making over the past several decades (2002, 415-427).

Infrastructure Variable

Israel’s roads, railways, seaports, and airports have been upgraded and expanded to ease urban burden, improve local and regional connectivity, and enhance capacity for commerce (The Land 2013). Despite this official report, The Jerusalem Post has reported that Tel Aviv’s mass transit system has not been upgraded, and that metropolitan public transportation lags behind most other developed nations (Udasin 2015).

Israel has a number of conventional power generation facilities including coal, gas, and turbine generation, with additional gas, coal, steam, and solar projects on the horizon; the Israeli government is encouraging private entrepreneurship in these efforts (Electricity Generation n.d.) Further, the Geological Survey of Israel (GSI) reports that Israel is exploring the potential of, and sites for, the development of nuclear power generation (Nuclear Power N.d.). The development of the Leviathon offshore natural gas field has been called “the largest infrastructure project in Israel’s history” (Azran 2017). This could spur increased investment in construction for road, rail and seaport enhancements.

These generally positive indices are contrasted by what OXFAM characterizes as infrastructure strain and humanitarian burden caused by the Israeli settlements pushing farther into Palestinian territory (On the Brink 2012). However, pending serious advancements, “water [will remain] a politically contentious issue, as the [region’s] main aquifers are located in occupied territory…The Israeli Water Authority recently announced that by 2070 it expects that the Jordan river, an important fresh water source, will be completely depleted” (Infrastructure 2010). As pointed out earlier, Israel suffers from a limited supply of water and has made efforts to improve its water infrastructure through desalinization. Cohen suggests that this desalinization effort has been successful enough to prompt Israel to halt plans to import water from Turkey (2015, 386).

In this same vein, Reuters has reported on the impact that population growth has had on the limited land-space available in Israel.

“Israel's birth rate, the highest in the developed world and once seen as a survival tactic in a hostile region, could be its undoing unless measures are taken to reverse the trend… Israel has 352 people per sq km, up from 215 in 1990, and forecast by the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) to reach 501-880 in 2059. Excluding the nearly empty Negev desert, which occupies more than half of Israel, population density jumps to 980 people per sq km, just a little below Bangladesh” (Cohen and Scheer 2015).

Physical Environment Variable

Israel is located in the Middle East, bordering the Mediterranean Sea, between Egypt and Lebanon. Its bordering countries are Egypt 208 km, Gaza Strip 59 km, Jordan 307 km, Lebanon 81 km, Syria 83 km, West Bank 330 km. Israel has a total territorial area of 20,770 sq km, 440 sq km of which are water. By comparison, Israel is slightly larger than the U.S. state of New Jersey. It has 273 km of coastline. It has a temperate climate, and is hot and dry in the southern and eastern desert areas. Major terrain features include: the Negev desert in the south, low coastal plain, central mountains, and the Jordan Rift Valley. Israel’s mean elevation is 508 m, with its lowest point in the Dead Sea at 408 m below sea level, and its highest point at Har Meron at 1208 m. 23.8% of its land is agricultural, with 13.7% arable, 3.8% used for permanent crops, and 6.3 used for pasture. 2,250 sq km are irrigated land. Israel experiences sandstorms during spring and summer, droughts, and periodic earthquakes. Lake Tiberias (Sea of Galilee) is an important freshwater source. The Dead Sea is the second saltiest body of water in the world (after Lake Assal in Djibouti). In 2014, there were 423 settlements in the Israeli-occupied territories - 42 settlements in the Golan Heights, 381 sites in the occupied Palestinian territories, to include 212 settlements and 134 outposts in the West Bank, and 35 settlements in East Jerusalem. There are no Israeli settlements in the Gaza Strip because all were evacuated in 2005 (CIA 2017).

Time Variable

Time is of critical importance in Israel’s strategic planning. Because Israel faces a continuing – or at least perceived – existential threat from its Muslim neighbors, it must take actions that the world community may see as rash.

Both [Hamas and Hezbollah] use time as a weapon against their enemies, particularly Israel and the United States. When looking to Israel and its goals, Hamas and Hezbollah each take a long-term view of time, feeling that a final victory over Israel is preordained and requires patience and prolonged commitment. Each group is willing to slowly grow its force while preparing for this long-term battle with the enemy. Both understand Western democracies’ aversion to attrition to the point of unwillingness to suffer, or even inflict, casualties (Farquhar 2009, 60).

As Haaretz reports, the waning power of Mahmoud Abbas and the notion that the Al-Aqsa Mosque is in danger, are encouraging Palestinian to resort to increasingly violent acts; “…the intensifying Sunni-Shi’ite war continues to fan the flames in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya…” which also inflames the situation with the Palestinians; “…the nuclear deal between the major world powers and Iran is now signed and sealed.” “…the Arab ‘tsunami’ that has shaken the region over the past five years highlighted the power of the masses to take their fate into their own hands;” and “…regional developments have left a vacuum that is being filled by Iran, and now Russia” (Farkash 2015). These realities make it imperative for Israel to consider its circumstances and those of its enemies with regard to their strategic use of time.

PART III – CONCLUSION

Israel, despite some glaring problems, has the capacity to endure and thrive. The preceding analysis of the political, military, economic, social, information, infrastructure, physical environment, and time (PMESII-PT) operational factors demonstrates that though it has difficult problems to overcome, Israel’s fundamentals are such that it will survive. Israel’s democratic political structure, though it has its weaknesses, is a bastion of democratic stability, and, particularly with the assistance of Western democracies, will remain a regional power. Despite having one of the highest poverty rates of any developed nation, Israel enjoys strengthening economic fundamentals. Its information and infrastructure variables, while in some ways concerning, are sufficiently robust. Israel faces harrowing threats from nation-states and non-state actors surrounding and within Israel, and its ethnic religious problems seem insurmountable, but, its defense establishment is strong, dedicated, and capable. Again, with the help of the global democratic community, Israel is poised to endure.

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