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Running head: GROUP #1

GROUP #1

GROUP #1

FEHINTOLUWA LOLU APONINUOLA

ASHISH KUMAR DHARANIKOTA

VIJAYASRI SAIRAM JALLA

JAIN ELIZEBETH JOHN

APARNA KAJULURI

KHUSHBOO SONAWANE

MAHESH SUNKARI

University of the Cumberland's (Williamsburg, KY)

INTRODUCTION

This report outlines a study of data from the daily COVID-19 cases in the 56 states in the federal republic of the United States of America. The studied attributes include the following: date of data collection, state or territory observed, number of positive diagnoses, number of negative diagnoses, number of individuals hospitalized with COVID-19, number of individuals who have recovered, number of individuals who have died from COVID-19, total number of COVID-19 test results, day-over-day change in positive diagnosis, day-over-day change in negative diagnoses, day-over-day change in COVID-19 deaths and day-over-day change in number of individuals hospitalized with COVID-19. This study was conducted to observe how each state and territory in the United States of America have been impacted by the coronavirus over the past eight months, and if there exists a relationship between the lockdown measures and the dips and peaks in the number of positive COVID-19 cases in each state and territory of the United States of America. It was observed that the enforced lockdown and order against large gatherings significantly helped to lower the coronavirus cases. Based on the observations and results derived from this study, keeping the number of coronavirus cases low weighs heavily on reduced social gatherings. Until a vaccine is made widely available to prevent individuals from contacting the virus, lifting the enforced lockdown will likely lead to an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in the United States of America. Additionally, continuing to enforce the social distancing directive is advisable until a vaccine has been developed and approved, because based on this data and according to the U.S. Government Accountability Office (2020), it is not possible to prove that herd immunity is the cause of the reduced number of coronavirus cases.

STATISTICS

Measure	Attribute	Value
Average	Death	1,535
Average	Positive	32,526
Average	Total test results	351,255
Median	Death	305
Median	Positive	7,684
Median	Total test results	103,047
Standard Deviation	Death	3,470
Standard Deviation	Positive	66,958
Standard Deviation	Total test results	746,931

The average, median, and Standard Deviation values of the total test results vs. Deaths and positive cases are calculated across the cleansed data for all states.

METHOD

Data in this report is based on the information from all 50 states in USA from 01/22/2020 till 08/08/2020. The count of people that are hospitalized currently, those who recovered and the death counts as well were included on the data. The table contains the total tests in addition to the positive counts and the deaths in order to provide vital context for case and death counts. The dataset used for this report is collected by the COVID tracking project by The Atlantic, who collects the data from the state and territory public health authorities, and which is used by the local and national news agencies as well as for research projects.

The total tests will enable us to understand how many are testing positive as well as how much effort the states are taking to contain the spread of COVID-19. Some states give the total count as the total specimens and others based on the people count. The total specimens can include testing of the same person more than once. Since the total tests from each state are measured differently, the process of de-duplicating the tests to arrive at a unique person metric is complex. As per the COVID tracking project (n.d), the best approach taken is to aggregate the data from the states reporting in specimens and the states reporting in people.

RESULTS

The impact of the virus in three quarters.

Figure 1: States showing hospitalized and Death

Figure 2: Quarterly hospitalized and death per states

Figure 1 shows the number of death and hospitalized data. Among all the states, New York has the maximum number of COVID patients hospitalized, which is 80,995, and the death rate is also raised to 25,195, recorded as the maximum death amongst all states. Moreover, Oklahoma has the least most COVID patience hospitalized, and indeed the death is also marked the lowest. Figure 2 shows the quarterly data for COVID positive. The number has drastically increased from March to April and has been around the same numbers until May and has lower a bit in June. The possible reason for the shift might be the presence of herd immunity or the impact of lockdown. It took the USA a little more than three months to hit 1 million cases on April 28. It took about half that time, 44 days, to get to 2 million on June 11 and only 26 days to reach 3 million on July 8. By that gauge, if no new measures are taken, 4 million cases could be tallied as soon as July 22. (2020)

Figure 3: Line graph showing monthly comparision between total test, death, positive and recovered

Figure 4: Chart showing weekly count of toal test, death, positive and recovered cases in USA

On further analysis to find the reason, the data of total test results, recovered, positive, and death is compared in figure 3. The positive cases from June end to July start of the month has drastically increased from 18,787,463 to 21,338,753. The positive count and test result count were raised, which implies a lot of people were impacted due to the uplift of lockdown and the public gathering of independence day or BLM's movement. This means the earlier containment wasn't due to the herd immunity and only resulted from a lockdown.

Figure 5: Positive and recovered cases as per states

Figure 6: Positive and recovered cases as per states with exact count

Texas and Massachusetts both have better recovery results compared to other states. The highest number of positive cases is in New York, 44 million, and below the New York is New Jersey, with 18,693,583 followed by Massachusetts with 11,221,164 cases. Massachusetts has a good recovery rate of around 6,693,619, whereas New Jersey has the least recovery counts compared to other states. The assumption might be the age factor, who might have a low immune system. It is also mentioned that many patients did not have the facility to get tested and had no chance to recover, which led to death just in few days. (The New York Times, 2020)

CONCLUSION

The coronavirus has left no state unscathed. But its impact has been wildly uneven. In New York and California, the states with the most known cases, more than 1 million people have had the coronavirus. In some less populous states, including Vermont and Hawaii, there are fewer than 5,000 patients. And in a handful of remote counties, there has been not even one positive test. In New York and California, the states with the most known cases, more than 1 million people have had the coronavirus. In some less populous states, including Vermont and Hawaii, there are fewer than 5,000 patients. And in a handful of remote counties, there has been not even one positive test. The United States has reached a grim milestone of 4 million coronavirus cases, doubling the total number of infections in just six weeks as deaths and hospitalizations continue a sharp rise in many states. According to Washington Post tracking, positivity rates are at alarming levels in numerous states; hospitalizations are soaring, more than 1,000 new coronavirus deaths were reported. The seven-day rolling average of infections has doubled in less than a month, reaching more than 66,000 new cases per day. The U.S. death toll now exceeds 141,000.

REFERENCES

Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). (2020, August 14). Retrieved August 15, 2020, from https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

The COVID Tracking Project (n.d) Retrieved Aug 15, 2020, from https://covidtracking.com/

The New York Times. (2020, March 03). Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count. Retrieved August 15, 2020, from https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

U.S. Government Accountablity Office. (2020, July 7). SCIENCE & TECH SPOTLIGHT: Herd Immunity For COVID-19. Retrieved from GAO: https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-20-646sp

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