financial stmt analysis
Ambargato
FSA-model-final.xlsxOperating Assumptions
| Match Valuation Model - Operating Assumptions | ||||||||||||
| Model Timing Assumptions | ||||||||||||
| Projected Fiscal Years Ending Dec 31 | ||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |||
| Projected Fiscal Years Ending Dec 31 | ||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |||
| Segmented Revenues | ||||||||||||
| Direct Revenue | ||||||||||||
| North America | 674 | 741 | 902 | 1,034 | 1,192 | 1,377 | 1,578 | 1,817 | 2,091 | 2,403 | ||
| Growth rate | - | 10.0% | 21.7% | 14.6% | 15.3% | 15.6% | 14.6% | 15.1% | 15.1% | 14.9% | ||
| % of Total Revenue | 60.3% | 55.7% | 52.2% | 50.4% | 47.5% | 44.8% | 42.5% | 40.4% | 38.3% | 36.4% | ||
| International | 393 | 540 | 775 | 974 | 1,272 | 1,654 | 2,094 | 2,640 | 3,314 | 4,145 | ||
| Growth rate | - | 37.2% | 43.5% | 25.7% | 30.6% | 30.0% | 26.6% | 26.1% | 25.6% | 25.1% | ||
| % of Total Revenue | 35.2% | 40.6% | 44.8% | 47.5% | 50.7% | 53.8% | 56.3% | 58.6% | 60.8% | 62.8% | ||
| Total Direct Revenue | 1,067 | 1,281 | 1,677 | 2,008 | 2,464 | 3,032 | 3,672 | 4,457 | 5,405 | 6,549 | ||
| Growth rate | - | 20.0% | 30.9% | 19.7% | 22.7% | 23.0% | 21.1% | 21.4% | 21.3% | 21.2% | ||
| Average Subscribers | ||||||||||||
| North America | 3,268 | 3,569 | 4,161 | 4,791 | 5,438 | 6,172 | 7,005 | 7,951 | 9,025 | 10,243 | ||
| Growth rate | Base | - | 9.2% | 16.6% | 15.1% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% | |
| Base | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% | ||||||
| Bear | 12.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% | ||||||
| International | 2,140 | 2,839 | 3,712 | 5,018 | 6,423 | 8,221 | 10,523 | 13,154 | 16,442 | 20,553 | ||
| Growth rate | Base | - | 32.7% | 30.8% | 35.2% | 28.0% | 28.0% | 28.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | |
| Base | 28.0% | 28.0% | 28.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | ||||||
| Bear | 26.5% | 26.5% | 26.5% | 23.5% | 23.5% | 23.5% | ||||||
| North America to International | 152.7% | 125.7% | 112.1% | 95.5% | 84.7% | 75.1% | 66.6% | 60.4% | 54.9% | 49.8% | ||
| Total | 5,408 | 6,408 | 7,873 | 9,809 | 11,861 | 14,393 | 17,528 | 21,105 | 25,467 | 30,796 | ||
| Growth rate | - | 18.5% | 22.9% | 24.6% | 20.9% | 21.4% | 21.8% | 20.4% | 20.7% | 20.9% | ||
| ARPU | ||||||||||||
| North America | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.23 | ||
| Growth rate | - | 0.7% | 4.4% | (0.5%) | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | ||
| International | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.21 | 0.19 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 | ||
| Growth rate | - | 3.4% | 9.7% | (7.0%) | 2.1% | 1.6% | -1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | ||
| Total | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.21 | ||
| Growth rate | - | 1.3% | 6.5% | (3.9%) | 1.5% | 1.4% | (0.5%) | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | ||
| Indirect Revenue | ||||||||||||
| Indirect Revenue | 51 | 49 | 53 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 44 | 46 | 47 | 48 | ||
| Growth rate | - | -2.6% | 6.6% | -17.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | ||
| % of Total Revenue | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | ||
| Total Indirect Revenue | 51 | 49 | 53 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 44 | 46 | 47 | 48 | ||
| Growth rate | - | (2.6%) | 6.6% | (17.5%) | -% | -% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | ||
| Total GAAP revenues | ||||||||||||
| Total revenues | 1,118 | 1,331 | 1,730 | 2,051 | 2,507 | 3,075 | 3,716 | 4,502 | 5,452 | 6,597 | ||
| Growth rate | - | 19.0% | 30.0% | 18.6% | 22.2% | 22.6% | 20.9% | 21.1% | 21.1% | 21.0% | ||
| COGS, SG&A, Other Expenses | ||||||||||||
| Revenues | 1,118 | 1,331 | 1,730 | 2,051 | 2,507 | 3,075 | 3,716 | 4,502 | 5,452 | 6,597 | ||
| Expenses as % of revenue | ||||||||||||
| Cost of revenues | Base | (17.5%) | (21.0%) | (23.7%) | (25.7%) | (23.5%) | (24.3%) | (24.5%) | (24.1%) | (24.3%) | (24.3%) | |
| Base | (23.5%) | (24.3%) | (24.5%) | (24.1%) | (24.3%) | (24.3%) | ||||||
| Bear | (25.0%) | (25.8%) | (26.0%) | (25.6%) | (25.8%) | (25.8%) | ||||||
| Selling General & Admin Exp. | Base | (44.1%) | (41.3%) | (34.7%) | (33.3%) | (36.4%) | (34.8%) | (34.8%) | (35.4%) | (35.0%) | (35.1%) | |
| Base | (36.4%) | (34.8%) | (34.8%) | (35.4%) | (35.0%) | (35.1%) | ||||||
| Bear | (38.4%) | (36.8%) | (36.8%) | (37.4%) | (37.0%) | (37.1%) | ||||||
| Stock-Based Compensation | (0.2%) | (1.0%) | (0.0%) | -% | -% | -% | -% | -% | -% | -% | ||
| R & D Exp. | (7.0%) | (7.6%) | (7.6%) | (7.4%) | (7.5%) | (7.5%) | (7.5%) | (7.5%) | (7.5%) | (7.5%) | ||
| Other operating expenses | -% | -% | -% | -% | -% | -% | -% | -% | -% | -% | ||
| EBITDA Margin | 31.2% | 29.1% | 33.9% | 33.6% | (90.7%) | (88.3%) | (88.9%) | (89.3%) | (88.8%) | (89.0%) | ||
| Working Capital | ||||||||||||
| Accounts receivable (% of revenues) | 5.7% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | ||
| Unearned Revenue (% of revenues) | 14.4% | 14.9% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 11.8% | ||
| Accounts payable (% of cost of revenues) | (3.8%) | (3.6%) | (2.3%) | (3.8%) | (3.3%) | (3.1%) | (3.4%) | (3.3%) | (3.3%) | (3.3%) | ||
| Accrued expenses (% of cost of revenues) | (26.3%) | (21.2%) | (19.3%) | (33.9%) | (24.8%) | (26.0%) | (28.2%) | (26.3%) | (26.9%) | (27.1%) | ||
| working capital | -77.5 | -146.7 | -198.6 | -207.0 | -200.4 | -274.0 | -355.4 | -410.7 | -506.8 | -609.4 | ||
| PP&E, Depreciation and Capex Assumptions | ||||||||||||
| Net PP&E as % of Revenues | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | ||
| Depreciation as % of Net PP&E | (44.0%) | (53.0%) | (56.5%) | (29.7%) | (45.0%) | (45.0%) | (45.0%) | (45.0%) | (45.0%) | (45.0%) | ||
| Capex as % of revenues | (4.1%) | (2.2%) | (1.8%) | (1.9%) | (3.0%) | (3.0%) | (3.0%) | (3.0%) | (3.0%) | (3.0%) | ||
| PP&E beginning balance (net) | 109 | 135 | 167 | 203 | 247 | 299 | ||||||
| Depreciation | 28 | 33 | 33 | 32 | 49 | 61 | 75 | 91 | 111 | 135 | ||
| Capex | (46) | (29) | (31) | (39) | (75) | (92) | (111) | (135) | (164) | (198) | ||
| PP&E ending balance (net) | 63 | 62 | 58 | 109 | 135 | 167 | 203 | 247 | 299 | 363 | ||
| Debt | ||||||||||||
| Total Debt ending balance | 1,176 | 1,253 | 1,516 | 1,603 | 1,932 | 2,394 | 2,745 | 3,295 | 4,015 | 4,819 | ||
| Interest expense | (82) | (78) | (73) | (92) | (111) | (137) | (157) | (188) | (230) | (276) | ||
| Interest expense as % of total debt | (7.0%) | (6.2%) | (4.8%) | (5.7%) | (5.7%) | (5.7%) | (5.7%) | (5.7%) | (5.7%) | (5.7%) | ||
| New issuance | 400 | 525 | 260 | 390 | 637 | 713 | 766 | 1,003 | 1,235 | 1,465 | ||
| New issuance as % of Operating expenses | 69.7% | 79.0% | 35.5% | 46.7% | 57.8% | 54.8% | 48.7% | 52.0% | 53.3% | 52.2% | ||
| Debt repayment | 1 | 445 | - 0 | 300 | 308 | 251 | 415 | 453 | 515 | 662 | ||
| Debt repayment as % of total debt | 37.8% | -% | 19.8% | 19.2% | 13.0% | 17.3% | 16.5% | 15.6% | 16.5% | |||
| Total debt beginning balance | 1,176 | 1,253 | 1,516 | 1,603 | 1,932 | 2,394 | 2,745 | 3,295 | 4,015 | |||
| Other Assumptions | ||||||||||||
| Amortization as of % Goodwill and Intangibles | (1.2%) | (0.1%) | (0.1%) | (0.6%) | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.4% | ||
| Taxes | ||||||||||||
| Tax Rate | 26.1% | (41.2%) | 3.0% | 3.7% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | ||
Financials
| Match Valuation Model - Financials | ||||||||||||||
| Historical and Projected Income Statement | ||||||||||||||
| Projected Fiscal Years Ending Dec 31 | ||||||||||||||
| ($ in millions of U.S. dollars except per share amounts) | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | ||||
| Total Direct Revenue | 1,067 | 1,281 | 1,677 | 2,008 | 2,464 | 3,032 | 3,672 | 4,457 | 5,405 | 6,549 | ||||
| Total Indirect Revenue | 51 | 49 | 53 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 44 | 46 | 47 | 48 | ||||
| Total GAAP accounting revenues | 1,118 | 1,331 | 1,730 | 2,051 | 2,507 | 3,075 | 3,716 | 4,502 | 5,452 | 6,597 | ||||
| Cost of revenues | (196) | (279) | (410) | (527) | (588) | (747) | (910) | (1,084) | (1,324) | (1,602) | ||||
| Gross profit | 922 | 1,051 | 1,320 | 1,524 | 1,919 | 2,328 | 2,806 | 3,418 | 4,128 | 4,995 | ||||
| Margin | 82.5% | 79.0% | 76.3% | 74.3% | 76.5% | 75.7% | 75.5% | 75.9% | 75.7% | 75.7% | ||||
| Selling General & Admin Exp. | (493) | (550) | (600) | (682) | (913) | (1,070) | (1,294) | (1,592) | (1,908) | (2,313) | ||||
| Stock-Based Compensation | (2) | (13) | (1) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| R & D Exp. | (78) | (101) | (132) | (152) | (189) | (231) | (278) | (339) | (410) | (495) | ||||
| Other operating expenses | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| EBITDA | 349 | 387 | 587 | 690 | 816 | 1,027 | 1,233 | 1,488 | 1,811 | 2,187 | ||||
| Margin | 31.2% | 29.1% | 33.9% | 33.6% | 32.6% | 33.4% | 33.2% | 33.0% | 33.2% | 33.1% | ||||
| Depreciation | (28) | (33) | (33) | (32) | (49) | (61) | (75) | (91) | (111) | (135) | ||||
| Amort. of Goodwill and Intangibles | (17) | (1) | (1) | (9) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (5) | (5) | (5) | ||||
| EBIT | 304 | 353 | 553 | 649 | 763 | 961 | 1,153 | 1,392 | 1,695 | 2,047 | ||||
| Margin | 27.2% | 26.5% | 32.0% | 31.6% | 30.4% | 31.3% | 31.0% | 30.9% | 31.1% | 31.0% | ||||
| 16% | 57% | 17% | 18% | 26% | 20% | 21% | 22% | 21% | ||||||
| Interest expense | (82) | (78) | (73) | (92) | (111) | (137) | (157) | (188) | (230) | (276) | ||||
| Interest income | - | - | 5 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Currency Exchange Gains (Loss) | 20 | (10) | 5 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Other Non-Operating Inc. (Exp.) | (1) | (13) | (2) | (2) | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Earnings before taxes | 241 | 252 | 488 | 555 | 653 | 824 | 996 | 1,203 | 1,465 | 1,771 | ||||
| Tax expense | (63) | 104 | (15) | (20) | (131) | (165) | (199) | (241) | (293) | (354) | ||||
| Net income (loss) | 178 | 356 | 473 | 534 | 522 | 659 | 797 | 963 | 1,172 | 1,417 | ||||
| Earnings of Discontinued Ops. | (6) | (6) | (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Minority interest | (1) | (0) | 5 | 0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Net income attributable to company | 171 | 350 | 478 | 535 | 522 | 659 | 797 | 963 | 1,172 | 1,417 | ||||
| Basic shares outstanding | 252 | 264 | 277 | 280 | 280 | 280 | 280 | 280 | 280 | 280 | ||||
| Diluted shares outstanding | 270 | 296 | 297 | 295 | 295 | 295 | 295 | 295 | 295 | 295 | ||||
| Diluted earnings (loss) per share | 0.64 | 1.18 | 1.61 | 1.81 | 1.77 | 2.23 | 2.70 | 3.26 | 3.97 | 4.80 | ||||
| x | Historical and Projected Cash Flow Statement | |||||||||||||
| Projected Fiscal Years Ending Dec 31 | ||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |||||
| Funds From Operating Activities | ||||||||||||||
| Net income (loss) | 171 | 350 | 478 | 535 | 522 | 659 | 797 | 963 | 1,172 | 1,417 | ||||
| Depreciation And Amortization | 45 | 34 | 34 | 41 | 53 | 65 | 81 | 96 | 116 | 140 | ||||
| Stock-Based Compensation | 52 | 69 | 66 | 90 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Net Cash From Discontinued Ops. | 4 | (6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Other Operating Activities | (17) | (85) | (24) | 1 | (33) | 48 | 63 | 29 | 70 | 79 | ||||
| Change in Acc. Receivable | (11) | (52) | 17 | (18) | (69) | (26) | (60) | (85) | (86) | (123) | ||||
| Change in Acc. Payable | (24) | (17) | 21 | 29 | (1) | 4 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 10 | ||||
| Change in Unearned Rev. | 19 | 33 | 13 | 9 | 96 | 48 | 71 | 107 | 104 | 136 | ||||
| Change in Inc. Taxes | 30 | (1) | 13 | (4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Change in Other Net Operating Assets | (5) | (11) | (15) | (24) | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Cash flow from operating activities | 264 | 315 | 603 | 658 | 569 | 799 | 959 | 1,114 | 1,384 | 1,659 | ||||
| Funds From Investing Activities | ||||||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | (46) | (29) | (31) | (39) | (75) | (92) | (111) | (135) | (164) | (198) | ||||
| Cash Acquisitions | (1) | (0) | 1 | (4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Divestitures | - | 96 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Invest. in Marketable & Equity Securt. | 11 | 51 | (4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Net (Inc.) Dec. in Loans Originated/Sold | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Other Investing Activities | 4 | (0) | (4) | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Cash flow from investing activities | (31) | 118 | (38) | (42) | (75) | (92) | (111) | (135) | (164) | (198) | ||||
| Funds From Financing Activities | ||||||||||||||
| Short Term Debt Issued | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Long-Term Debt Issued | 400 | 525 | 260 | 390 | 637 | 713 | 766 | 1,003 | 1,235 | 1,465 | ||||
| Total Debt Issued | 400 | 525 | 260 | 390 | 637 | 713 | 766 | 1,003 | 1,235 | 1,465 | ||||
| Short Term Debt Repaid | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Long-Term Debt Repaid | (450) | (445) | - | (300) | (308) | (251) | (415) | (453) | (515) | (662) | ||||
| Total Debt Repaid | (450) | (445) | - | (300) | (308) | (251) | (415) | (453) | (515) | (662) | ||||
| Issuance of Common Stock | 39 | 59 | 0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Repurchase of Common Stock | (30) | (254) | (341) | (420) | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Common Dividends Paid | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Special Dividend Paid | - | - | (556) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Other Financing Activities | (21) | (309) | (12) | (7) | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Cash flow from financing activities | (61) | (424) | (650) | (337) | 329 | 461 | 351 | 550 | 721 | 803 | ||||
| Effect of exchange rate on cash | (6) | 10 | (2) | (1) | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Beginning cash balance | 88 | 254 | 273 | 187 | 466 | 1,288 | 2,456 | 3,654 | 5,183 | 7,124 | ||||
| Change in cash & equivalents | 166 | 19 | (86) | 279 | 822 | 1,168 | 1,198 | 1,529 | 1,941 | 2,265 | ||||
| Ending cash balance | 254 | 273 | 187 | 466 | 1,288 | 2,456 | 3,654 | 5,183 | 7,124 | 9,389 | ||||
| Check | OK | OK | OK | OK | OK | OK | OK | OK | OK | OK | ||||
| Supplemental Items | ||||||||||||||
| Cash Interest Paid | 82 | 72 | 71 | NA | ||||||||||
| Cash Taxes Paid | 44 | 15 | 22 | NA | ||||||||||
| Levered Free Cash Flow | 61 | 328 | 422 | 448 | ||||||||||
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 112 | 377 | 468 | 506 | ||||||||||
| Change in Net Working Capital | 131 | (69) | (52) | (8) | ||||||||||
| Net Debt Issued | (50) | 80 | 260 | 90 | ||||||||||
| Net Cash From Discontinued Ops. - Investing | (4) | (1) | - | - | ||||||||||
| x | Historical and Projected Balance Sheet Statement | |||||||||||||
| Projected Fiscal Years Ending Dec 31 | ||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |||||
| Check | OK | OK | OK | OK | OK | OK | OK | OK | OK | OK | ||||
| Assets | ||||||||||||||
| Current Assets | ||||||||||||||
| Cash & equivalents | 254 | 273 | 187 | 466 | 1,288 | 2,456 | 3,654 | 5,183 | 7,124 | 9,389 | ||||
| Accounts Receivable, Net | 64 | 117 | 99 | 116 | 186 | 212 | 272 | 357 | 443 | 565 | ||||
| Deferred Income Tax Asset (Short-Term) | 13 | 16 | 19 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Other Current Assets | 160 | 39 | 38 | 94 | 94 | 94 | 94 | 94 | 94 | 94 | ||||
| Short-Term Investments | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Total Current Assets | 490 | 445 | 344 | 676 | 1,568 | 2,762 | 4,020 | 5,634 | 7,661 | 10,048 | ||||
| Net PP&E | 63 | 62 | 58 | 109 | 135 | 167 | 203 | 247 | 299 | 363 | ||||
| Goodwill and other intangibles | 1,424 | 1,478 | 1,482 | 1,468 | 1,464 | 1,459 | 1,454 | 1,449 | 1,444 | 1,439 | ||||
| Other Noncurrent Assets | 11 | 11 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | ||||
| Long-term Investment | 55 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||||
| Deferred Income Tax Asset (Long-Term) | 5 | 123 | 134 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | ||||
| Total Assets | 2,049 | 2,130 | 2,053 | 2,424 | 3,337 | 4,558 | 5,847 | 7,500 | 9,574 | 12,020 | ||||
| Liabilities & Shareholders Equity | ||||||||||||||
| Current Liabilities | ||||||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 7 | 10 | 10 | 20 | 19 | 23 | 31 | 35 | 43 | 53 | ||||
| Accrued Exp. | 51 | 59 | 79 | 179 | 146 | 194 | 257 | 286 | 356 | 435 | ||||
| Curr. Port. of LT Debt | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Unearned Revenue, Current | 161 | 198 | 210 | 219 | 315 | 363 | 434 | 541 | 645 | 781 | ||||
| Other Current Liabilities | 94 | 51 | 57 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Total Current Liabilities | 314 | 319 | 355 | 418 | 480 | 580 | 722 | 862 | 1,044 | 1,269 | ||||
| Long-Term Debt | 1,176 | 1,253 | 1,516 | 1,603 | 1,932 | 2,394 | 2,745 | 3,295 | 4,015 | 4,819 | ||||
| Def. Tax Liability, Non-Curr. | 25 | 28 | 20 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | ||||
| Other Non-Current Liabilities | 30 | 23 | 36 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 | ||||
| Total Liabilities | 1,546 | 1,623 | 1,927 | 2,103 | 2,494 | 3,056 | 3,548 | 4,238 | 5,141 | 6,169 | ||||
| Common Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Additional Paid-in Capital | 491 | 81 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Retained Earnings (Accumulated Deficit) | 182 | 532 | 454 | 989 | 1,511 | 2,170 | 2,967 | 3,929 | 5,101 | 6,519 | ||||
| Treasury Stock | - | - | (134) | (350) | (350) | (350) | (350) | (350) | (350) | (350) | ||||
| Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income | (176) | (112) | (195) | (319) | (319) | (319) | (319) | (319) | (319) | (319) | ||||
| Total Common Equity | 497 | 501 | 126 | 320 | 842 | 1,502 | 2,298 | 3,261 | 4,433 | 5,850 | ||||
| Minority Interest | 6 | 6 | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Total Shareholders' Equity | 503 | 507 | 126 | 321 | 843 | 1,502 | 2,299 | 3,262 | 4,434 | 5,851 | ||||
| Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity | 2,049 | 2,130 | 2,053 | 2,424 | 3,337 | 4,558 | 5,847 | 7,500 | 9,575 | 12,020 | ||||
| Check | OK` | OK | OK | OK | OK | OK | OK | OK | OK | OK | ||||
Valuation
| Match Valuation Model | |||||||||||||||
| Assumptions | Financials Summary | ||||||||||||||
| Historical | Projected Fiscal Years Ending March 31 | ||||||||||||||
| 10-Year US Treasury | 0.64% Yunzhi FENG: Yunzhi FENG: Last updated on May 6, 2020. Data source: FRED | Forecast Summary | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 1.0 | |||||
| Expected Market Return | 6.67% | Revenues | 2,051 | 2,507 | 3,075 | 3,716 | 4,502 | 5,452 | 6,597 | 1.0 | |||||
| Market Risk Premium | 6.03% Yunzhi FENG: Yunzhi FENG: Last updated on May 1, 2020. Data source: Aswath Damodaran Website | Revenue Growth Rate | 18.6% | 22.2% | 22.6% | 20.9% | 21.1% | 21.1% | 21.0% | 1.0 | |||||
| Beta | 1.02 | EBITDA | 690 | 816 | 1,027 | 1,233 | 1,488 | 1,811 | 2,187 | 1.0 | |||||
| CAPM Cost of Equity | 6.8% | EBITDA Growth Rate | 17.5% | 18.4% | 25.8% | 20.1% | 20.6% | 21.7% | 20.8% | 1.0 | |||||
| Cost of Debt | 5.9% | EBITDA Margin | 33.6% | 32.6% | 33.4% | 33.2% | 33.0% | 33.2% | 33.1% | 1.0 | |||||
| Tax Rate | 25.0% | Net income | 534 | 522 | 659 | 797 | 963 | 1,172 | 1,417 | 1.0 | |||||
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.5% | NI Growth Rate | 13.0% | (2.3%) | 26.3% | 20.8% | 20.8% | 21.8% | 20.9% | 1.0 | |||||
| Target Gearing | 10.0% | NI Margin | 26.1% | 20.8% | 21.4% | 21.4% | 21.4% | 21.5% | 21.5% | 1.0 | |||||
| WACC | 6.6% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||
| 1.0 | |||||||||||||||
| Valuation date | 5-May-20 | 1.0 | |||||||||||||
| Next year end date | 31-Dec-20 | 1.0 | |||||||||||||
| 1.0 | |||||||||||||||
| 1.0 | |||||||||||||||
| Match Valuation Model - Discounted Cash Flow Valuation | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||
| FCFF Valuation | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||
| ($ in millions of U.S. dollars except per share amounts) | Projected Fiscal Years Ending March 31 | 1.0 | |||||||||||||
| Free Cash Flows | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 1.0 | ||||||||
| EBIT * (1-tax rate) | 611 | 769 | 922 | 1,113 | 1,356 | 1,638 | 1.0 | ||||||||
| Depreciation And Amortization | 53 | 65 | 81 | 96 | 116 | 140 | 1.0 | ||||||||
| Non-cash Interest Adjustment | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1.0 | ||||||||
| Capex | (75) | (92) | (111) | (135) | (164) | (198) | 1.0 | ||||||||
| Net Change in Working Capital | (7) | 74 | 81 | 55 | 96 | 103 | 1.0 | ||||||||
| Free Cash Flows to Firm (FCFF) | 383 | 1,352 | 2,585 | 4,132 | 6,540 | 9,516 | 1.0 | ||||||||
| Years to Discount | 0.66 | 1.66 | 2.66 | 3.66 | 4.66 | 5.66 | 1.0 | ||||||||
| Cost of Capital | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 1.0 | ||||||||
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 1.0 | ||||||||
| PV Free Cash Flows to Firm (FCFF) | 367 | 1,217 | 2,184 | 3,275 | 4,866 | 6,644 | 1.0 | ||||||||
| 1.0 | |||||||||||||||
| FCFF Fair Value Multiple Method | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||
| EBITDA Multiple | 16.9x Yunzhi FENG: Yunzhi FENG: Source: Siblis Research, Multiples of EV/EBITDA of Internet companies | 1.0 | |||||||||||||
| Terminal Year EBITDA | 2,187 | 1.0 | |||||||||||||
| Terminal Value | 36,913 | 1.0 | |||||||||||||
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 27,461 | 1.0 | |||||||||||||
| Terminal Value as % of Total Value | 69.8% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||
| Present Value of Forecast FCF | 11,909 | 1.0 | |||||||||||||
| Forecast Period as % of Total Value | 30.2% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | 39,370 | 1.0 | |||||||||||||
| - Debt | (2,098) | 1.0 | |||||||||||||
| + Cash | 791 | 1.0 | |||||||||||||
| Equity Value | 38,063 | 1.0 | |||||||||||||
| Shares outstanding | 283 | 1.0 | |||||||||||||
| Fair Value Share Price | 134.59 | 1.0 | |||||||||||||
| Current Share Price | 80 | ||||||||||||||
| Upside | 68.0% | ||||||||||||||
| Match Valuation Model - Residual Income Valuation | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Abnormal Earnings Valuation | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||
| ($ in millions of U.S. dollars except per share amounts) | Historical | Projected Fiscal Years Ending March 31 | 1.0 | ||||||||||||
| Abnormal Earnings | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 1.0 | |||||||
| Net Income | 534 | 522 | 659 | 797 | 963 | 1,172 | 1,417 | 1.0 | |||||||
| Equity Value | 320 | 842 | 1,502 | 2,298 | 3,261 | 4,433 | 5,850 | 1.0 | |||||||
| Equity Charge | 22 | 57 | 102 | 156 | 221 | 301 | 1.0 | ||||||||
| Cost of Equity | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 1.0 | ||||||||
| Residual Income | 501 | 602 | 695 | 807 | 951 | 1,116 | 1.0 | ||||||||
| Years to Discount | 0.66 | 1.66 | 2.66 | 3.66 | 4.66 | 5.66 | 1.0 | ||||||||
| Cost of Equity | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 1.0 | ||||||||
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.69 | 1.0 | ||||||||
| PV Residual Income to Equity | 479 | 540 | 583 | 634 | 700 | 770 | 1.0 | ||||||||
| 1.0 | |||||||||||||||
| Residual Inome Valuation Method | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Current Equity Book Value | 320 | ||||||||||||||
| Growth Rate | 3% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||
| Present Value of Perpetuity with Growth | 20,913 | 1.0 | |||||||||||||
| Terminal Value as % of Total Value | 83.9% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||
| Present Value of Forecast Residual Income | 3,707 | 1.0 | |||||||||||||
| Forecast Period as % of Total Value | 14.9% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||
| Equity Value | 24,940 | 1.0 | |||||||||||||
| Shares outstanding | 283 | 1.0 | |||||||||||||
| Fair Value Share Price | 88.19 | 1.0 | |||||||||||||
| Current Share Price | 80.100 | ||||||||||||||
| Upside | 10.1% | ||||||||||||||
