business forecasting

ForecastingExcelwithsmoothingrevised.xlsx18.xlsx

Sheet1

Month	Sales	Moving Avg (5)	Moving Avg (6)	Moving Avg (7)	Weighted Moving Avg
January	20
February	21
March	15
April	14
May	13
June	16
July	17
August	18
September	20
October	20
November	21
December	23
January	22
February	19
March	21
April
1. Generate as many valid forecasts as you can for a five-period moving average, a six-period moving average, a 7-period moving average,
and a weighted average forecasts with weights 0.4, 0.3, 0.2, and 0.1 for the most recent data, the next most recent data, and so forth, respectively.
2. Calculate MAD for each forecast. (Use common data periods only.) Insert columns as necessary.
3. Recommend a forecast and explain why that is your choice.
4. Use Excel for all calculations.

Month	Sales	Forecast with smoothing constant .6	Forecast with smoothing constant .3	0.6	0.3
January	4
February	6
March	4
April	5
May	10
June	8
July	7
August	9
September	12
October	14
November	15
December	23
1. Generate as many valid forecasts as you can for each of the smoothing constants. Assume a January forecast of 5
2. Calculate MAD for each forecast. (Use common data periods only.) Insert columns as necessary.
3. Recommend a forecast and explain why that is your choice.
4. Calculate MSE for each forecast. (Use common data periods only.) Insert columns as necessary.
5. Recommend a forecast and explain why that is your choice.
6. Use Excel for all calculations.