| | | HISTORY | | | | | | Forecast |
| | % Change, year over year unless noted otherwise | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| | GDP and Components |
| | Real GDP | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 2.3 | -8.3 | 2.9 | 7.6 | 3.3 |
| | Real Consumer spending | 3 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 3 | 2.6 | -4.7 | 1.9 | 5.1 | 3.5 |
| | Real Consumer spending, durable goods | 1.2 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 4.7 | -21 | -3.8 | 6 | 3.6 |
| | Real consumer spending, nondurable goods | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 3 | 3.3 | -2.7 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 3 |
| | Real consumer spending, services | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 2 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2 |
| | Real investment in private housing | 3.8 | 10.2 | 6.5 | 3.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -33.7 | 0.4 | 43.2 | 8.6 |
| | Real fixed business investment | 7.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 2.1 | -24.6 | 5.9 | 19.4 | 7.4 |
| | Real inventory accumulation | 86 | 132 | 23 | 32 | 48 | 65 | -207 | -10 | 150 | 95 |
| | Real exports of goods and services | 4.2 | 0.5 | 0 | 3.5 | 3 | 0 | -3.7 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3 |
| | Real imports of goods and services | 5 | 5.3 | 2 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 1 | -5.1 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 3.9 |
| | Real government consumption and investment | -0.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.7 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| | Real federal government consumption and investment | -2.6 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.5 | -1 | -0.4 | -0.4 |
| | Real state and local government consumption and investment | 0.2 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| | Prices |
| | Consumer Price index | 1.6 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1 | 1.7 | 3.8 | 2 |
| | Chained price index for personal consumption expenditures | 1.5 | 0.2 | 1 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 2 |
| | Chained GDP price index | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 4.4 | 2 |
| | Employment cost index | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 5.5 | 4.3 |
| | Labor markets |
| | Average monthly charge in employment (thousands) | 214 | 240 | 210 | 188 | 192 | 170 | -212 | -88 | 382 | 207 |
| | Unemployment rate (percent) | 6.2 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 3.8 |
| | Employment to population (percent) | 59 | 59.3 | 59.7 | 60.1 | 60.4 | 60.8 | 59.3 | 58.3 | 56.7 | 60.2 |
| | Income and wealth |
| | Real disposable income | 4.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 4 | 3 | -0.9 | 0.8 | 3.4 | 2.7 |
| | Net household wealth (US $ trillions) | 88 | 91 | 97 | 105 | 106 | 119 | 92 | 101 | 110 | 101 |
| | Personal saving rate (percent of disposable income) | 7.3 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 7 | 7.7 | 8 | 11.2 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 8.6 |
| | After-tax corporate profits with corporate with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments | 5.4 | -2.8 | -2.4 | -0.3 | 3.4 | -0.2 | -42.4 | 10.6 | 48.6 | 3.1 |
| | Housing |
| | Housing starts (thousands) | 1000 | 1107 | 1178 | 1209 | 1250 | 1298 | 868 | 829 | 1165 | 1247 |
| | Stock of owner-occupied homes (millions) | 134 | 135 | 136 | 137 | 138 | 140 | 141 | 141 | 142 | 143 |
| | Interest rate on 30-year fixed rate mortgages (percent) | 4.17 | 3.85 | 3.65 | 3.99 | 4.54 | 3.94 | 3.59 | 3.4 | 3.45 | 4.22 |
| | Foreign trade |
| | Current account balance, share of GDP (Percent) | -2.1 | -2.2 | -2.3 | -2.3 | -2.4 | -2.3 | -1.8 | -1.5 | -1.9 | -2.2 |
| | Merchandize trade balance (US $ billions) | -727 | -737 | -735 | -797 | -878 | -862 | -791 | -885 | -1034 | -1131 |
| | Relative unit labor costs (index,2008=100) | 89.3 | 100.4 | 102.7 | 104.2 | 102.6 | 106.2 | 115.1 | 107.7 | 102.6 | 103.5 |
| | Financial |
| | Federal funds(percent) | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.39 | 0.97 | 1.78 | 2.16 | 0.42 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.75 |
| | Yield on 10-year Treasury note (percent) | 2.54 | 2.14 | 1.84 | 2.33 | 2.91 | 2.14 | 1.22 | 1.56 | 1.99 | 2.5 |
| | Government |
| | Federal budget balance, unified basis (share of GDP, Percent) | -2.9 | -2.6 | -2.9 | -3.5 | -3.9 | -4.5 | -6.2 | -7.8 | -6.5 | -5.6 |
| | Sources: Historical data: US government agencies and Oxford Economics. Forecast: Deloitte, using Oxford Global Economic Model |
| | References |
| | https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html |
Arod229
ForecastandPro-FormaIncomeStatement.xlsx
