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Finance2.pdf
DATA MINING IN BANKING AND FINANCE: A NOTE FOR BANKERS
Rajanish Dass
Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad
Abstract
Currently, huge electronic data repositories are being maintained by banks and other financial institutions. Valuable bits of information are embedded in these data repositories. The huge size of these data sources make it impossible for a human analyst to come up with interesting information (or patterns) that will help in the decision making process. A number of commercial enterprises have been quick to recognize the value of this concept, as a consequence of which the software market itself for data mining is expected to be in excess of 10 billion USD. This note is intended for bankers, who would like to get aware of the possible applications of data mining to enhance the performance of some of their core business processes. In this note, the author discusses broad areas of application, like risk management, portfolio management, trading, customer profiling and customer care, where data mining techniques can be used in banks and other financial institutions to enhance their business performance.
Keywords: Data Mining, Banks, Financial Institutions, Risk Management, Portfolio
Management, Trading, CRM, Customer Profiling
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DATA MINING IN BANKING AND FINANCE: A NOTE FOR BANKERS
Rajanish Dass
Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad
As knowledge is becoming more and more synonymous to wealth creation and as a
strategy plan for competing in the market place can be no better than the information
on which it is based, the importance of knowledge and information in today’s
business can never be seen as an exogenous factor to the business. Organizations and
individuals having access to the right information at the right moment, have greater
chances of being successful in the epoch of globalization and cut-throat competition.
Currently, huge electronic data repositories are being maintained by banks and other
financial institutions across the globe. Valuable bits of information are embedded in
these data repositories. The huge size of these data sources make it impossible for a
human analyst to come up with interesting information that will help in the decision
making process. A number of commercial enterprises have been quick to recognize
the value of this concept, as a consequence of which the software market itself for
data mining is expected to be in excess of 10 billion USD.
Business Intelligence focuses on discovering knowledge from various electronic data
repositories, both internal and external, to support better decision making. Data
mining techniques become important for this knowledge discovery from databases. In
recent years, business intelligence systems have played pivotal roles in helping
organizations to fine tune business goals such as improving customer retention,
market penetration, profitability and efficiency. In most cases, these insights are
driven by analyses of historical data.
Global competitions, dynamic markets, and rapidly decreasing cycles of technological
innovation provide important challenges for the banking and finance industry.
Worldwide just-in-time availability of information allows enterprises to improve their
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flexibility. In financial institutions considerable developments in information
technology have led to huge demand for continuous analysis of resulting data.
Data mining can contribute to solving business problems in banking and finance by
finding patterns, causalities, and correlations in business information and market
prices that are not immediately apparent to managers because the volume data is too
large or is generated too quickly to screen by experts. The managers of the banks may
go a step further to find the sequences, episodes and periodicity of the transaction
behaviour of their customers which may help them in actually better segmenting,
targeting, acquiring, retaining and maintaining a profitable customer base. Business
Intelligence and data mining techniques can also help them in identifying various
classes of customers and come up with a class based product and/or pricing approach
that may garner better revenue management as well.
Figure 1. The use of Data Mining Technique is a Global and Firm wide challenge for financial
business. Firm-wide data source can be used through data mining for different business areas.
Foreign exchange
Global Data Warehouse & Data Marts
Using Data Mining- Techniques for
Credit Risk
Portfolio Data
Option Custom Data
Equities Company Data
Market Risk
Trading Portfolio mgmt
Control
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The broad categories of application of Data Mining and Business Intelligence
techniques in the banking and financial industry vertical may be viewed as follows1:
Risk Management
Managing and measurement of risk is at the core of every financial institution.
Today’s major challenge in the banking and insurance world is therefore the
implementation of risk management systems in order to identify, measure, and control
business exposure. Here credit and market risk present the central challenge, one can
observe a major change in the area of how to measure and deal with them, based on
the advent of advanced database and data mining technology.( Other types of risk is
also available in the banking and finance i.e., liquidity risk, operational risk, or
concentration risk. )
Today, integrated measurement of different kinds of risk (i.e., market and credit risk)
is moving into focus. These all are based on models representing single financial
instruments or risk factors, their behaviour, and their interaction with overall market,
making this field highly important topic of research.
Financial Market Risk
For single financial instruments, that is, stock indices, interest rates, or
currencies, market risk measurement is based on models depending on a set of
underlying risk factor, such as interest rates, stock indices, or economic
development. One is interested in a functional form between instrument price
or risk and underlying risk factors as well as in functional dependency of the
risk factors itself.
Today different market risk measurement approaches exist. All of them rely
on models representing single instrument, their behaviour and interaction with
overall market. Many of this can only be built by using various data mining
1 J. M. Zytkow and W. Klösgen, Handbook of Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery. New York: Oxford, 2002.
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techniques on the proprietary portfolio data, since data is not publicly
available and needs consistent supervision.
Credit Risk
Credit risk assessment is key component in the process of commercial lending.
Without it the lender would be unable to make an objective judgement of
weather to lend to the prospective borrower, or if how much charge for the
loan. Credit risk management can be classified into two basic groups:
a. Credit scoring/credit rating. Assignment of a customer or a product to risk
level.(i.e., credit approval)
b. Behaviour scoring/credit rating migration analysis. Valuation of a
customer‘s or product’s probability of a change in risk level within a given
time.(i.e., default rate volatility)
In commercial lending, risk assessment is usually an attempt to quantify the risk of
loss to the lender when making a particular lending decision. Here credit risk can
quantify by the changes of value of a credit product or of a whole credit customer
portfolio, which is based on change in the instrument’s ranting, the default
probability, and recovery rate of the instrument in case of default. Further
diversification effects influence the result on a portfolio level. Thus a major part of
implementation and care of credit risk management system will be a typical data
mining problem: the modelling of the credit instrument’s value through the default
probabilities, rating migrations, and recovery rates.
Three major approaches exist to model credit risk on the transaction level: accounting
analytic approaches, statistical prediction and option theoretic approaches. Since large
amount of information about client exist in financial business, an adequate way to
build such models is to use their own database and data mining techniques, fitting
models to the business needs and the business current credit portfolio.
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Figure 2. Using Data Mining technique for customer, financial instrument, portfolio risk to market
and credit risk measurement
Portfolio Management
Risk measurement approaches on an aggregated portfolio level quantify the risk of a
set of instrument or customer including diversification effects. On the other hand,
forecasting models give an induction of the expected return or price of a financial
instrument. Both make it possible to manage firm wide portfolio actively in a
risk/return efficient manner. The application of modern risk theory is therefore within
portfolio theory, an important part of portfolio management.
With the data mining and optimization techniques investors are able to allocate capital
across trading activities to maximise profit or minimise risk. This feature supports the
ability to generate trade recommendations and portfolio structuring from user supplied
profit and risk requirement.
With data mining techniques it is possible to provide extensive scenario analysis
capabilities concerning expected asset prices or returns and the risk involved. With
User portfolio under market and
credit risk
Historical return price credit information
Segment Information Country, currency, State of economy
Exposure
Credit Model recovery
Model Correlations
Model instrument
Pricing
Interest Rate
Scenario
Customer, Instrument, portfolio risk to market and credit risk
Models through data mining
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this functionality, what if simulations of varying market conditions e.g. interest rate
and exchange rate changes) cab be run to assess impact on the value and/or risk
associated with portfolio, business unit counterparty, or trading desk. Various
scenario results can be regarded by considering actual market conditions. Profit and
loss analyses allow users to access an asset class, region, counterparty, or custom sub
portfolio can be benchmarked against common international benchmarks.
Figure 3. The management of an instrumental portfolio is based on all reachable -information, that
is risk, scenario and predicted credit ratings, but also on news and other information sources.
Trading
For the last few years a major topic of research has been the building of quantitative
trading tools using data mining methods based on past data as input to predict short-
term movements of important currencies, interest rates, or equities.
The goal of this technique is to spot times when markets are cheap or expensive by
identifying the factor that are important in determining market returns. The trading
system examines the relationship between relevant information and piece of financial
assets, and gives you buy or sell recommendations when they suspect an under or
overvaluation. Thus, even if some traders find the data mining approach too
Risk
Return prediction
News
Option
Restriction
Other Sources
Risk/Return Efficient Portfolio
Of Instruments, customer
Information Selection & Optimization
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mechanical or too risky to be used systematically, they may want to use it selectively
as further opinion.
Figure 4. Market participants examine the relationship between relevant information and the price
of financial assets, and buy or sell securities when they suspect an under or over valuation
Trading is based on the idea of predicting short term movements in the price/value of
a product (currency/equity/interest rate etc.). With a reasonable guesstimate in place
one may trade the product if he/she thinks it is going to be overvalued or undervalued
in the coming future. Trading traditionally is done based on the instinct of the trader.
If he/she thinks the product is not priced properly he/she may sell/buy it. This instinct
is usually based on past experience and some analysis based on market conditions.
However, the number of factors that even the most expert of traders can account for
are limited. Hence, quite often these predictions fail.
The price of a financial asset is influenced by a variety of factors which can be
broadly classified as economic, political and market factors. Participants in a market
observe the relation between these factors and the price of an asset, account for the
current value of these factors and predict the future values to finally arrive at the
future value of the asset and trade accordingly. Quite often by the time a trained eye
detects these favourable factors, many others may have discovered the opportunity,
decreasing the possible revenues otherwise. Also these factors in turn may be related
to several other factors making prediction difficult.
Economic Factor
Market/ Technical Factors
Political Factor
Information Selection
Buy
Neutral
Sell
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Data mining techniques are used to discover hidden knowledge, unknown patterns
and new rules from large data sets, which maybe useful for a variety of decision
making activity. With the increasing economic globalization and improvements in
information technology, large amounts of financial data are being generated and
stored. These can be subjected to data mining techniques to discover hidden patterns
and obtain predictions for trends in the future and the behaviour of the financial
markets. With the immediacy offered by data mining, latest data can be mined to
obtain crucial information at the earliest. This in turn would result in an improved
market place responsiveness and awareness leading to reduced costs and increased
revenue.
Advancements made in technology have enabled to create faster and better prediction
systems. These systems are based on a combination of data mining techniques and
artificial intelligence methods like Case Based Reasoning (CBR) and Neural
Networks (NN). A combination of such a forecasting system together with a good
trading strategy offers tremendous opportunities for massive returns.
The value of a financial asset is dependent on both macroeconomic and
microeconomic variables and this data is available in a variety of disparate formats.
Data mining comes in here since it helps discover information and hidden patterns
from large data sets and data sources in different formats. NN and CBR techniques
can be applied extensively for predicting these financial variables.
NN are characterized by learning capabilities and the ability to improve performance
over time. Also NN can generalize i.e. recognize new objects which may be similar
but not exactly identical to previous objects. NN with their ability to derive meaning
from imprecise data can be used to detect patterns which are otherwise too complex to
be detected by humans. NN act as experts in the area that they have been trained to
work in. these can be used to provide predictions for new situations and work in real
time. Thus, historic data available about financial markets and the various variables
can be used to train NN to simulate the market. Based on entry of current values of
market variables, the NN can predict the status in the coming day and may be used to
give a buy/sell recommendation.
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CBR methodology is based on reasoning from past performances. It uses a large
repository of data stored as cases which would include all the market variables in this
case. When a new case is fed in (in the form of a case containing the concerned
variables), the CBR algorithm predicts the performance/result of this case based on
the cases it has in its repository. Data mining techniques can be used to detect hidden
patterns in these cases which may then be used for further decision making. CBR
methods can be used in real time which makes analysis really quick and helps in real
time decision making resulting in immediate profits.
Thus data mining and business intelligence (CBR and NN) techniques may be used in
conjunction in financial markets to predict market behaviour and obtain patterned
behaviour to influence decision making.
Customer Profiling and Customer Relationship Management Banks have many and huge databases containing transactional and other details of its
customers. Valuable business information can be extracted from these data stores. But
it is unfeasible to support analysis and decision making using traditional query
languages; because human analysis breaks down with volume and dimensionality.
Traditional statistical methods do not have the capacity and scale to analyse these
data, and hence modern data mining methodologies and tools are increasingly being
used for decision making process not only in banking and financial institutions, but
across the industries.
Customer profiling is a data mining process that builds customer profiles of different
groups from the company’s existing customer database. The information obtained
from this process can be used for different purposes, such as understanding business
performance, making new marketing initiatives, market segmentation, risk analysis
and revising company customer policies. The advantage of data mining is that it can
handle large amounts of data and learn inherent structures and patterns in data. It can
generate rules and models that are useful in enabling decisions that can be applied to
future cases.
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Customer Behaviour Modeling (CBM) or customer profiling is a tool to predict the
future value of an individual and the risk category to which he belongs to based on his
demographic characteristics, life-style and previous behaviour. This helps to focus on
customer retention. The two important facts that have important implication in
selecting customer profiling methods are:
– Profiling information can consist of many variables (or dozens of
them).
– Majority of them are categorical variables (or non-numeric variables or
nominal variables).
Customer profiling is to characterize features of special customer groups. Many data
mining techniques search profiles of special customer groups systematically using
Artificial Intelligence techniques. They generate accurate profiles based on beam
search and incremental learning techniques.
Customer profiling also uses many predictive modeling methods. Predictive modeling
techniques applicable can be categorized into two broad approaches. They depend on
the type of predicted information or variables, also called target variables. If the type
of predicted values is categorical, classification techniques is preferred to be used.
Classification Methods:
In this approach, risk levels are organized into two categories based on past default
history. For example, customers with past default history can be classified into "risky"
group, whereas the rest are placed as "safe" group. Using this categorization
information as target of prediction, Decision Tree and Rule Induction techniques can
be used to build models that can predict default risk levels of new loan applications.
Value Prediction Methods:
In this method, for example, instead of classifying new loan applications, it attempts
to predict expected default amounts for new loan applications. The predicted values
are numeric and thus it requires modeling techniques that can take numerical data as
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target (or predicted) variables. Neural Network and regression are used for this
purpose. The most common data mining methods used for customer profiling are:
Clustering (descriptive)
Classification (predictive) and regression (predictive)
Association rule discovery (descriptive) and sequential pattern discovery
(predictive)
In CRM, data mining is frequently used to assign a score to a particular customer or
prospect indicating the likelihood that the individual will behave in a particular way.
For example, a score could measure the propensity to respond to a particular
insurance or credit card offer or to switch to a competitor’s product.
Data mining can be useful in all the three phases of a customer relationship-cycle:
customer acquisition, increasing value of the customer and customer retention. For
example, a typical banking firm let say sends 1 million direct mails for credit card
customer acquisition. Past researches2 have shown that typically 6% of such target
customers respond to these direct mails. Banks use their credit risk models to classify
these respondents in good credit risk and bad credit risk classes. The proportion of
good credit risk respondents is only 16% out of the total respondents. So, as net result,
roughly only 1% of the total targeted customers are converted into the credit card
customers through direct mailing. Seeing the huge cost and effort involved in such
marketing process, data mining techniques can significantly improve the customer
conversion rate by more focused marketing. Using a predictive test model using
decision tree techniques like CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection),
CART (Classification And Regression Trees), Quest and C5.0; it can be analyzed
which customers are more probable to respond. And using this with the risk model
using techniques like neural network can help build a test model.
The way data mining can actually be built into the CRM application is determined by
the nature of customer interaction. The customer interaction could be inbound (when
the customer contacts the firm) or outbound (when the firm contacts customers). The
deployment requirements are quite different. Outbound interactions such as direct
2 “Building Profitable Customer Relations with Data Mining”, Herb Edelstein
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mail campaign involve the firm selecting the people whom to be mailed by applying
the test model to the customer database. In other outbound campaigns like advertising,
the profile of good prospects shown by the test model needs to be matched to the
profile of the people the advertisement would reach.
For inbound transactions such as telephone or internet order, the application must
respond in real time. Therefore the data mining model is embedded in the application
and actively recommends an action. In either case, one of the key issues in applying a
model to new data set is the transformations that are made in building the model. The
ease with which these changes are embedded in the model determines the productivity
of deploying these tools.
Marketing and customer care
Because high competitions in the finance industry, intelligent business decisions in
marketing are more important than ever for better customer targeting, acquisition,
retention and customer relationship. There is a need for customer care and marketing
strategies to be in place for the success and survival of the business. It is possible with
the help of data mining and predictive analytics to make such strategies.
Financial institutions are finding it more difficult to locate new previously unsolicited
buyers, and as a result they are implementing aggressive marketing program to
acquire new customer from their competitors. The uncertainties of the buyer make
planning of new services and media usage almost impossible. The classical solution is
to apply subjective human expert knowledge as rules of thumb. Until recently,
replacing the human expert by computer technology has been difficult.
An interesting tool available in marketing and financial institution is analysis of
client’s data. This allows analysis and calculation of key indicators that help bank to
identify factors that affected customer’s demand in the past and customer’ need in the
future.
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Information about the customer’s personal data can also give indications that affect
future demand. In case of analysis of retail debtors and small corporations, marketing
tasks will typically include factors about the customer himself, his credit record and
rating made by external rating agencies.
With the advent of data mining and business intelligence tools it has become possible
for banks to strengthen their customer acquisition by direct marketing and establish
multi-channel contacts, to improve customer development by cross selling and up
selling of products, and to increase customer retention by behaviour management. It
is possible for the banks to use the data available to retain its best customers and to
identify opportunities to sell them additional services. The profiling of all the valuable
accounts can be done and the top most say 5-10 % can be assigned to Relationship
Managers, whose job will be to identify new selling opportunities with these
customers.
It is also possible to bundle various offers to meet the need of the valued customers.
Data mining can also help the banks in customizing the various promotional offers.
For example the direct mails can be customized as per the segment of the account
holders in the bank. It is also possible for the banks to find out the problem customers
who can be defaulters in the future, from their past payment records and the profile
and the data patterns that are available. This can also help the banks in adjusting the
relationship with these customers so that the loss in future is kept to its minimum.
Data mining can improve the response rates in the direct mail campaigns as the time
required to classify the customers will be reduced, this in turn will increase the
revenues, improve the sales force efficiency from the target group. Data mining helps
the banks to optimize their portfolio of services, delivery channels. A record of past
transactions can give useful insight to the bank and different locations /branches of
same branch can also follow some patterns that when noticed can be used as past
records to learn from and base the future actions upon.
Data Mining techniques can be of immense help to the banks and financial institutions
in this arena for better targeting and acquiring new customers, fraud detection in real-
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time, providing segment based products for better targeting the customers, analysis of
the customers’ purchase patterns over time for better retention and relationship,
detection of emerging trends to take proactive stance in a highly competitive market
adding a lot more value to existing products and services and launching of new
product and service bundles.
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