completing the spreadsheets

profileDrAwesome
FINAL_14.zip

FINAL_14/CARVER_1_.xlsx

Worksheet

CARVER
Asset Name: GW Bridge
Address:
City: NYC Time needed to replace asset, if possible Additional CI sectors affected by loss of asset
State:
Zip: Select Value:
County:
Owner:
Sector:
Susceptibility of asset to damage or destruction
Impact of loss of asset Select Value:
Users Affected:
Economic Loss and Rebuild Cost ($): Is the asset an "icon" representing more than a physical structure
Potential Deaths from Attack: Select Value:
Ease of entry into the asset to cause its damage or destruction Percentage of "back-up" capacity to offset the loss of this asset
Select Value: Select Value:
SCORE: 122 5

CRITICALITY

ACCESSIBILITY

RECOVERABILITY

VULNERABILITY

ESPYABILITY

REDUNDANCY

Food & Agriculture

Banking & Finance

Chemical

Commercial Facilities

Communications

Critical Manufacturing

Dams

Defense Industrial Base

Emergency Services

Energy

INTERDEPENDENCY

Government Facilities

Healthcare & Public Health

Information Technology

National Monuments & Icons

Nuclear Reactors, Materials & Waste

Postal & Shipping

Transportation Systems

Water

Menu Items

SECTOR VALUE CRITICALITY VALUE VALUE VALUE
Food & Agriculture 1 Less than 1000 people 1 Less than $10 million 1 N/A 1
Banking & Finance 2 More than 1000 people 2 Less than $25 million 2 10 2
Chemical 3 More than 10,000 people 3 Less than $50 million 3 50 3
Commercial Facilities 4 More than 25,000 people 4 Less than $100 million 4 100 4
Communications 5 More than 50,000 people 5 Less than $250 million 5 250 5
Critical Manufacturing 6 More than 100,000 people 6 Less than $500 million 6 500 6
Dams 7 More than 500,000 people 7 Less than $750 million 7 1000 7
Defense Industrial Base 8 More than 1 million people 8 Less than $1 billion 8 5000 8
Emergency Services 9 More than 2.5 million people 9 Less than $25 billion 9 10000 9
Energy 10 More than 5 million people 10 Less than $50 billion 10 50000 10
Government Facilities 11 100,000+ 11
Healthcare & Public Health 12
Information Technology 13
National Monuments & Icons 14
Nuclear Reactors, Materials & Waste 15
Postal & Shipping 16
Transpostation Systems 17 ACCESSIBILITY VALUE RECOVERABILITY VALUE VULNERABILITY VALUE
Water 18 Patrolled 1 Less than 1 month 1 Special Hardening 1
Perimeter Fencing 2 More than 1 month 2 Massive 2
Armed Security 3 More than 3 months 3 Building Purpose Unknown to Public 3
Unarmed Security 4 More than 6 months 4 Operations Structurally Dispersed 4
Access Control 5 More than 1 year 5 Concrete/Stone 5
Alarm System 6 More than 2 years 6 Structural Steel 6
Locked Area 7 More than 3 years 7 Flammable/Explosive 7
Open to Public 8 More than 4 years 8 Minor Metal Frame 8
No Control 9 More than 5 years 9 Wood Design 9
Irreplacable 10 No Security Design 10
ESPYABILITY VALUE REDUNDANCY VALUE
Locally significant, non-government 1 100% 1
Locally significant, government 2 90% 2
State icon only 3 80% 3
State icon + function 4 70% 4
Regional icon only 5 60% 5
Regional icon + function 6 50% 6
National icon only 7 40% 7
National icon + function 8 30% 8
World icon only 9 20% 9
World icon + function 10 10% 10
0% 11

Results

Asset Name: GW Bridge
Address: 0
City: NYC
State: 0
Zip: 0
County: 0
Owner: 0
Sector: 17
Criticality
Users affected 6 25
Economic loss 9 125
Potential deaths 5 10
Total 160
Accessibility
Value 7 0.98
Recoverability
Value 5 15
Vulnerability
Value 9 0.99
Espyability
Value 8 0.955
Redundancy
Value 6 0.75
SCORE: 121.60850625
Food & Agriculture TRUE 1
Banking & Finance FALSE 0
Chemical 0
Commercial Facilities FALSE 0
Communications TRUE 1
Critical Manufacturing 0
Dams 0
Defense Industrial Base TRUE 1
Emergency Services TRUE 1
Energy FALSE 0
Government Facilities 0
Healthcare & Public Health 0
Information Technology 0
National Monuments & Icons 0
Nuclear Reactors, Materials & Waste 0
Postal & Shipping TRUE 1
Transpostation Systems FALSE 0
Water 0
INTERDEPENDENCY 5

Tables

CRITICALITY VALUE SCORE VALUE SCORE VALUE SCORE
Less than 1000 people 1 1 Less than $10 million 1 1 N/A 1 0
More than 1000 people 2 3 Less than $25 million 2 3 10 2 1
More than 10,000 people 3 5 Less than $50 million 3 5 50 3 3
More than 25,000 people 4 10 Less than $100 million 4 10 100 4 5
More than 50,000 people 5 15 Less than $250 million 5 15 250 5 10
More than 100,000 people 6 25 Less than $500 million 6 25 500 6 15
More than 500,000 people 7 40 Less than $750 million 7 40 1000 7 25
More than 1 million people 8 75 Less than $1 billion 8 75 5000 8 40
More than 2.5 million people 9 125 Less than $25 billion 9 125 10000 9 75
More than 5 million people 10 200 Less than $50 billion 10 200 50000 10 125
100,000+ 11 200
ACCESSIBILITY VALUE SCORE RECOVERABILITY VALUE SCORE VULNERABILITY VALUE SCORE
Patrolled 1 0.99 Less than 1 month 1 1 Special Hardening 1 0.9
Perimeter Fencing 2 0.98 More than 1 month 2 3 Massive 2 0.9
Armed Security 3 0.9 More than 3 months 3 5 Building Purpose Unknown to Public 3 0.95
Unarmed Security 4 0.95 More than 6 months 4 10 Operations Structurally Dispersed 4 0.95
Access Control 5 0.95 More than 1 year 5 15 Concrete/Stone 5 0.96
Alarm System 6 0.9 More than 2 years 6 25 Structural Steel 6 0.96
Locked Area 7 0.98 More than 3 years 7 40 Flamable/Explosive 7 0.97
Open to Public 8 0.99 More than 4 years 8 75 Minor Metal Frame 8 0.98
No Control 9 0.999 More than 5 years 9 125 Wood Design 9 0.99
1 Irreplacable 10 200 No Security Design 10 0.999
ESPYABILITY VALUE SCORE REDUNDANCY VALUE SCORE
Locally significant, non-government 1 0.9 100% 1 0.001
Locally significant, government 2 0.9 90% 2 0.5
State icon only 3 0.92 80% 3 0.6
State icon + function 4 0.925 70% 4 0.65
Regional icon only 5 0.93 60% 5 0.7
Regional icon + function 6 0.935 50% 6 0.75
National icon only 7 0.95 40% 7 0.8
National icon + function 8 0.955 30% 8 0.85
World icon only 9 0.99 20% 9 0.9
World icon + function 10 0.995 10% 10 0.95
0% 11 1

FINAL_14/CARVER_tools_1_.pdf

CARVER   CARVER  is  a  methodology  first  used  by  the  Department  of  Defense  Special  Forces  to   rank  targets  so  that  their  resources  could  be  used  efficiently.  The  user  would   estimate  Criticality,  Accessibility,  Recuperability,  Vulnerability,  Effect,  and   Recognizability  as  nominal  scores  that  were  added  and  then  ranked.  The   methodology  was  later  adapted  for  Homeland  Security.  The  CARVER  tool  that  was   used  by  practitioners  had  proprietary  data  tables  behind  it  to  weigh  user  inputs   appropriately.  This  tool  makes  those  tables  available  so  that  the  user  can   experiment  with  weighting  and  modeling  if  desired.    

Using  the  Tool   For  this  simple  tool,  only  one  asset  can  be  evaluated  for  each  spreadsheet.  To   evaluate  a  set  of  assets,  we  recommend  making  a  number  of  copies  of  the  Excel  file   with  one  evaluation  for  each  file.  All  data  is  input  into  the  Worksheet  tab  while  all   the  tables  are  on  the  Tables  tab.  The  Menu  Items  and  Results  tabs  are  used  to   store  values  temporarily  and  are  it  is  not  recommended  that  users  modify  these.     To  begin,  input  enough  data  to  uniquely  identify  the  asset  to  be  evaluated.  This  is   not  used  in  any  calculation  so  not  all  is  required,  but  at  a  minimum,  a  unique  name  is   helpful.  You  may  also  place  this  asset  into  a  specific  sector.     Criticality  assesses  the  impact  of  the  loss  of  this  asset.  Note  that  CARVER  is  not   threat  mode  specific  so  you  are  to  consider  any  threat  possible.    

• Users  Affected  is  not  casualties,  but  rather  people  impacted  by  the  loss  of  this   asset.  If  it  is  a  bridge  and  100,000  people  will  not  be  able  to  get  to  work,  then   these  people  are  affected.    

• Economic  Loss  and  Rebuild  Cost  is  and  estimate  of  the  financial  damage   associated  with  the  loss  of  this  asset.  Economic  loss  and  rebuild  cost  are   summed  together  in  this  estimate,  so  be  sure  that  if  you  include  economic   loss  for  one  asset,  you  include  it  throughout  your  assessment.  

• Potential  Deaths  form  Attack  is  an  estimate  of  casualties  associated  with  an   attack  on  this  asset.  Again,  CARVER  is  not  threat  specific  so  assume  worst   case  scenario.  

  Accessibility  allows  you  to  indicate  what  security  may  be  in  place  to  limit  access  to   this  asset.  You  may  choose  from  Patrolled,  Perimeter  Fencing,  Armed  Security,   Unarmed  Security,  Access  Control,  Alarm  System,  Locked  Area,  Open  to  the  Public,   and  No  Control.     Recoverability  is  the  time  needed  to  replace  or  repair  this  asset,  if  possible.  Choose   an  estimate  from  the  menu.    

Vulnerability  is  the  susceptibility  of  this  asset  to  damage  or  destruction.  Ignore   anything  related  to  access  (we  covered  that  under  Accessibility)  and  focus  instead   on  features  of  the  asset  that  will  help  it  to  withstand  or  survive  an  attack.    

• Massive  refers  to  the  size  of  the  structure.  A  massive  structure,  like  a  major   bridge,  has  low  vulnerability  due  to  its  size.  

• Building  Purpose  Unknown  to  Public  would  be  like  a  water  pumping  station   that  looks  like  a  non-­‐descript  house  in  a  neighborhood.  

• Operations  Structurally  Dispersed  would  be  a  facility  that  has  a  back-­‐up   location  or  can  otherwise  function  without  all  of  its  parts  operating  at  the   same  time.  

• Concrete/Stone  refers  to  the  structural  material  used  in  the  asset.   • Structural  Steel  also  refers  to  the  structural  material  used  in  the  asset.   • Flammable/Explosive  should  be  selected  if  either  the  asset  itself  burns  easily  

or  if  it  contains  materials  that  burn  easily  or  are  potentially  explosive.     • Minor  Metal  Frame  again  refers  to  the  structural  material  used  in  the  asset.   • Wood  Design  refers  to  the  structural  material  used  in  the  asset.   • No  Security  Design  means  that  there  is  nothing  special  in  the  design  of  this  

asset  to  reduce  vulnerability.     Espyability  refers  to  whether  or  not  the  asset  is  merely  functional  or  if  it  has  iconic   status  at  the  Local,  State,  Regional,  National,  or  World  level.  Choose  from:  

• Locally  significant,  non-­‐government     • Locally  significant,  government   • State  icon  only   • State  icon  +  function   • Regional  icon  only   • Regional  icon  +  function   • National  icon  only   • National  icon  +  function   • World  icon  only   • World  icon  +  function  

  Redundancy  is  an  estimate  of  the  percentage  overlap  or  back-­‐up  capacity  there  is  to   offset  the  loss  of  this  asset.       Interdependency  is  a  list  of  sectors  that  might  be  interdependent  with  this  asset.   For  example,  if  this  is  a  power  station,  it  might  be  interdependent  with  the  water   sector,  commercial  facilities,  defense  industrial  base,  etc.  Interdependency  is  not   calculated  into  the  CARVER  score  but  is  represented  by  the  smaller  number  in  the   score.  A  CARVER  score  of  122-­‐5  means  that  this  asset  has  a  score  of  122  with  5   interdependencies.     CARVER  scores  are  calculated  but  are  dimensionless.  The  score  does  not  represent   Risk,  Resilience,  Vulnerability,  or  anything  else.  The  higher  the  score,  the  more  likely  

that  asset  may  require  resourcing.  But  you  cannot  say  that  an  asset  with  a  score  of   100  is  half  as  important  as  an  asset  with  a  score  of  200.    

Modifications   The  best  place  to  experiment  with  CARVER  is  in  the  Tables  tab.  Here  you  will  see  all   of  the  categories  we  just  described  here  with  all  of  the  items  in  the  menus  that  you   can  select.  Notice  that  for  each  menu  selection,  there  is  an  associated  Score.    Do  not   change  the  Value  column.  That  is  there  as  an  identifier  for  that  menu  selection.  But   do  experiment  with  changing  the  Scores.       Should  a  criticality  that  impacts  500,000  people  (score  of  40)  be  only  four  times   higher  than  that  for  25,000  people  (score  of  10)?  Maybe  it  should  be  higher.   Experiment  with  changing  scores.  Test  your  configurations  with  a  set  of  assets  to   make  sure  that  it  makes  sense.  Does  the  overall  CARVER  score  go  up  when  you   expect  it  to?  Does  it  decrease  when  you  expect  it  to?  By  default,  the  data  tables  we   provide  are  all  independent  but  they  don’t  have  to  be.  You  could  experiment  by   having  a  score  linked  to  another  value.  For  example,  what  if  you  wanted  the   Criticality  score  to  be  higher  if  the  Recoverability  time  was  longer?  How  would  you   do  that?  

FINAL_14/Multicriterion_documentation_1_.pdf

Multi-­‐Criteria  Assessment  Methodology   This  multi-­‐criteria  tool  is  an  example  of  a  simple  risk-­‐based  model  that  assesses   assets  independently  but  with  multiple  measures.  For  this  example,  we  used  a   subset  of  the  MSRAM  model,  at  least  in  the  way  MSRAM  models  risk  and  its   components.  

Description     Asset  is  a  unique  name  of  the  asset  to  be  evaluated.     Attack  Mode  is  a  description  of  the  type  of  attack  being  considered.  Multiple  attack   modes  can  be  considered  for  any  asset.  

We  consider  Asset  +  Attack  Mode  as  the  key  data  pair  that  uniquely  identifies   one  assessment.  An  electrical  switching  station  could  be  paired  with  an   explosive  device,  a  SCADA  attack,  or  other  mode,  each  of  which  would  be   considered  separately.  

  We  use  the  standard  equation  for  Risk    

R  =  T  *  V  *  C  where     T  is  Threat,  V  is  Vulnerability,  and  C  is  Consequence.  The  components  of  each  is   described  below.     Threat  is  the  percentage  product  of  Intent  and  Capability.    

• Intent  is  the  probability  that  a  person  or  group  would  want  to  damage  or   destroy  this  asset.  High  intent  would  imply  knowledge  of  an  impending   attack  or  a  credible  threat.  

• Capability  is  the  probability  that  a  person  or  group  would  have  the   capability  to  execute  this  attack.  Note  that  this  requires  an  attack  mode.  The   capability  of  a  group  to  obtain  small  explosives  is  likely  to  be  higher  than   their  capability  to  obtain  radioactive  material.  

Vulnerability  is  the  percentage  product  of  Achievability  and  Target  Hardness.   • Achievability  is  the  probability  of  successful  attack  assuming  no  security  

measures.  Do  not  consider  existing  security  features  such  as  fencing,  key  card   control,  CCTV,  etc.  Assume  that  this  person  or  group  gains  access  to  this  asset   with  a  small  explosive  device  (for  example).  What  is  the  likelihood  that  it   would  successfully  disable  the  asset?  

• Target  Hardness  is  the  probability  that  the  target  cannot  withstand  the   attack.  Note  this  implies  that  a  lower  value  means  a  harder  target.  An  asset   with  stand-­‐off  barriers  and  physical  patrols  would  have  a  lower  target   hardness  value  than  one  with  only  light  fencing.  

Consequence  is  the  sum  of  all  consequence  category  estimates.  All  categories  must   be  translated  to  a  single  unit  (e.g.  dollars,  millions  of  dollars,  lives).  

• Death/Injury  is  the  number  of  casualties  that  would  be  expected  as  a  result   of  this  attack  on  this  asset.  We  use  a  value  per  statistical  life  (VSL)  of  $6.5M   but  this  can  be  adjusted.  

• Economic  Loss  is  the  estimated  value  of  loss  due  to  attack.  This  should   include  the  damage  to  the  asset  itself  but  could  also  include  “downstream”   economic  damages.  For  example,  if  a  bridge  is  disabled,  the  cost  to  repair  the   bridge  could  be  added  to  the  estimated  loss  of  commerce  over  the  time  it   takes  to  repair  the  bridge  to  estimate  this  value.  It  is  important  to  be   consistent  throughout  all  entries  in  this  column.  

• Environmental  is  the  estimated  value  of  the  environmental  impact  of  this   attack  on  this  asset.  If  there  is  no  environmental  impact,  then  this  can  be  zero.   In  cases  where  a  post-­‐event  clean  up  must  be  performed,  as  would  be  the   case  in  a  radiological,  chemical,  or  biological  attack,  this  could  be  very  high.  

• National  Security  is  the  estimated  value  of  the  impact  of  this  attack  on  this   asset  on  national  security.  An  attack  on  a  port  facility,  for  example,  might   have  a  large  impact  national  security,  whereas  an  attack  on  a  water   treatment  plant  may  have  a  smaller  estimated  value.  

• Symbolic  is  the  estimated  value  of  impact  due  to  the  symbolic  value  of  this   target.  Damage  to  an  iconic  bridge  would  be  estimated  higher  than  a  generic   bridge.  Damage  to  a  national  monument  would  have  value  here  where  it  may   not  have  value  elsewhere.  

  Total  is  the  Risk  calculation  for  this  Asset-­‐Attack  Mode  pair.  It  is  computed,  not   input  by  the  user.  Assuming  that  consequence  values  were  given  in  dollars,  then  the   Risk  calculation  is  also  in  dollars.     You  may  use  the  Sort  function  in  Excel  to  sort  the  table  on  Total  in  order  to  quickly   identify  the  Asset-­‐Attack  Mode  pairs  with  the  highest  calculated  Risk.  

Modifications   This  simple  tool  was  built  with  the  intention  that  it  would  be  modified  to  meet   specific  uses.       1. If  the  components  of  T,  C,  or  C  are  not  desired,  then  the  user  may  directly  input  

percentage  values  (0-­‐100)  in  columns  E  or  H.  For  consequence,  a  C  can  be   directly  input  into  column  N  or  any  of  the  columns  I  through  M  may  be  discarded   if  not  needed.  The  tool  will  sum  what  values  are  given.  

2. If  you  wish  to  add  another  component  to  Threat  or  Vulnerability,  you  may  do  so   by  adding  a  new  column  under  that  category,  in  either  the  red  or  yellow  regions.   Make  sure  that  you  adjust  the  Score  column  to  include  the  new  column.  Also   make  sure  that  the  new  component  is  a  percentage  value  so  that  it  can  be   multiplied  without  affecting  the  other  components.  

3. You  may  also  add  components  to  Consequence  easily.  Add  a  column  into  the  blue   region,  and  make  sure  that  the  Score  column  in  blue  includes  the  new  column(s)   in  the  sum.  It  should  do  that  by  default.  

 

FINAL_14/Multi-Criterion_Workshop_1_.xlsx

Sheet1

ASSET ATTACK MODE THREAT VULNERABILITY CONSEQUENCE TOTAL
Intent Capability Score Achievability Target Hardness Score Death/Injury Economic Loss Environmental National Security Symbolic Score
GW Bridge Water B device by X 100% 100% 100% 10% 5% 1% 100 $5,000 $500 $6,150 $30.75
0% 0% $0 $0.00
0% 0% $0 $0.00
0% 0% $0 $0.00
0% 0% $0 $0.00
0% 0% $0 $0.00
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DEFINITIONS $M
Intent Probability that a person or gorup would want to do this Value per statistical life (VSL) 6.5
Capability Probability that a person or group would be able to do this
Achievability Probability of successful attack assuming no security measures
Target hardness Probability that the target cannot withstand the attack (lower = harder)
Death/Injury Number of deaths or injuries as a result of attack
Economic loss Estimated dollar value of loss due to attack
Environmental Estimated dollar value of environmental impact
National security Estimated dollar value of impact on national security
Symbolic Estimated dollar value of impact due to symbolic value of target