intro and conclusion

Explaining The 2020 Presidential Election: Emotions and Voter Ideology

Entering the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election both candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump voiced two different perspectives about how to best protect the American public’s health and safety in regards to COVID-19. In the Election candidate, Joe Biden’s campaign focused on alleviating COVID-19 induced anxiety by proposing mask mandates, encouraging social distancing, and distribution of vaccines. The American public regardless of party affiliation suffered a considerable amount of anxiety throughout this time period. I hypothesize that the increased anxiety caused by the global pandemic COVID-19 persuaded Americans who considered COVID-19 the most prominent issue in regards to public policy to vote in alliance with Joe Biden. The 2020 Election also proved that voters were more inclined to vote for the candidate that best suited their political ideology, even though ideology was held at a steady rate[footnoteRef:1][footnoteRef:2][footnoteRef:3]Using motivated reasoning and the rational choice theory, voters are inclined to participate in their best interest.[footnoteRef:4] In this election, both candidates reached a similar amount of support from their respective parties.[footnoteRef:5]We predict that the 2020 presidential election was influenced by voters’ emotional reaction to the pandemic as well as their alignment to the ideologies of their preferred candidate. [1: Sances, M.W. Ideology and Vote Choice in U.S. Mayoral Elections: Evidence from Facebook Surveys. Polit Behav 40, 737–762 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-017-9420-x ] [2: Saad, Lydia. “Americans' Political Ideology Held Steady in 2020.” Gallup.com, Gallup, 20 Nov. 2021, https://news.gallup.com/poll/328367/americans-political-ideology-held-steady-2020.aspx. ] [3: Gielnik, Ruth, et al. “Behind Biden's 2020 Victory.” Pew Research Center - U.S. Politics & Policy, Pew Research Center, 30 Sept. 2021, https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/. ] [4: Elff, Martin. "Ideology and Electoral Choice." In The Routledge Handbook of Elections, Voting Be- havior and Public Opinion”, edited by Justin Fisher, Edward Fieldhouse, Mark N. Franklin, Rachel Gibson, Marta Cantijoch and Christopher Wlezien, 136-45. New York: Routledge, 2018.] [5: Gielnik, Ruth, et al. “Behind Biden's 2020 Victory.” Pew Research Center - U.S. Politics & Policy, Pew Research Center, 30 Sept. 2021, https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/.]

ANES Variables

· (V201390): federal government response to COVID-19

· (V201200): 7pt scale liberal-conservative self-placement

· (V201233): How often trust government in Washington to do what is right [revised]

References

Couture, Jérôme, and Sandra Breux. “A New Tunnel Effect? the Impact of Stress on Vote Choice.” Frontiers, Frontiers, 1 Jan. 1AD, https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpos.2021.589548/full.

Elff, Martin. "Ideology and Electoral Choice." In The Routledge Handbook of Elections, Voting Behavior and Public Opinion”, edited by Justin Fisher, Edward Fieldhouse, Mark N. Franklin, Rachel Gibson, Marta Cantijoch and Christopher Wlezien, 136-45. New York: Routledge, 2018.

“Feeling Anxious? How Politicians Create That Emotion | CBC News.” CBCnews, CBC/Radio Canada, 1 Oct. 2016, https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/anxiety-politics-voting-1.3783918.

Gielnik, Ruth, et al. “Behind Biden's 2020 Victory.” Pew Research Center - U.S. Politics & Policy, Pew Research Center, 30 Sept. 2021, https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/.

New Apa Poll Shows Surge in Anxiety among Americans Top Causes Are Safety, COVID-19, Health, Gun Violence, and the Upcoming Election, https://www.psychiatry.org/newsroom/news-releases/anxiety-poll-2020.

“Republicans, Democrats Move Even Further Apart in Coronavirus Concerns.” Pew Research Center - U.S. Politics & Policy, Pew Research Center, 17 Dec. 2020, https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/06/25/republicans-democrats-move-even-further-apart-in-coronavirus-concerns/.

Saad, Lydia. “Americans' Political Ideology Held Steady in 2020.” Gallup.com, Gallup, 20 Nov. 2021,https://news.gallup.com/poll/328367/americans-political-ideology-held-steady-2020.aspx.

Sances, M.W. Ideology and Vote Choice in U.S. Mayoral Elections: Evidence from Facebook

Surveys. Polit Behav 40, 737–762 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-017-9420-x