Modes of reasoning Questions

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ExcersisesInductiveCausalAnalogy.pptx

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“Reasoning About Social Issues”

Petrenko Anton, PhD

Hours: By appointment (Monday 11:30-12:30)

E-Mail: [email protected]

AP/MODR1730 D

Assessing Arguments from Analogy

1. Truth of the reasons: are the two things compared similar in the required way?

2. Are the known similar properties relevant to the property one is trying to infer?

3. How high is the number of similar characteristics (the higher, the stronger the analogy).

4. How varied are the shared characteristics (the greater variety of similar characteristics, the better)

5. Are there any significant disanalogies (or dissimilarities) that cast doubt on the conclusion?

When you are assessing the strength of arguments from analogy, it is important to consider whether things compared are similar in the appropriate way, whether known properties are relevant to the unknown property, the number of shared features, and presence of disanalogies

Inductive Arguments: Causal Arguments

To establish a cause one must show that cause-event precedes the effect-event, and that this effect would not occur without the cause (even though if it could potentially occur due to another cause). Ideally, one need to identify the causal mechanism.

1. Temporal priority: event A (the alleged cause) always precedes event B (the alleged effect).

2. Covariance: The two events must vary together; as one varies (e.g. increases or decreases), the other also varies (increases or decreases).

3. A reasonable mechanism should be conceivable that enables the causal relation between two events.

4. Have other possible causes been ruled out?

Assessing Inductive Generalizations

1. It is based on evidence or observations of a number of cases.

2. The observations are systematic (not anecdotal)

3. The sample and the population are easily identified.

4. The sample is representative of the population (reflects variability and frequency)

5. The generalization does not over-generalize the sample in relation to the population—it has an adequate scope (sample is large enough for the scope).

When you are assessing the strength of inductive generalizations, you need to pay attention to the following conditions that make these arguments reliable. Sample must be clear, large enough, and representative (randomized) of the population.

Anita conducts a survey to determine if Canadians are willing to support the arts by contributing money directly to local theater groups. One night she and her assistants interview 500 people who are attending a performance of a musical at the citie’s biggest theatre. To help ensure random selection, they purposely select every other patron they encounter for interviewing. There is only one interview question: Are you willing to support the arts by giving money to local theater groups?’ 94% of the interviewees answered yes. Anita therefore reports that a large majority of Canadians are willing to support the arts by giving money to local theatre groups.

The website of the Toronto Star invites visitors to ‘speak out’ by participating in ‘Today’s Poll.’ One day the question is: Should Canada hold talks with Hezbollah, as one Liberal MP has suggested? That day, 3,241 people visited the website and gave their answers. Of these, 2,205 answered ‘no’. I therefore conclude that 68% of Torontonians oppose the idea of Canada holding talks with Hezbollah.

As soon as Smith took office and implemented policies that reflected his conservative theory of economics, the economy went into a downward slide characterized by slow growth and high unemployment. Therefore, the Smith policies caused the current economic doldrums.

A prominent sociologist wants to determine the sexual attitudes of women aged 25-45. The main question to be asked is weather heterosexual women in this age group are satisfied with their partner’s sexual performance. The sociologists interview 200 of her Facebook friends who belong to the target group. She also asks 200 of her female colleagues at her university to complete and return a survey asking the same key question. She gets 78 completed surveys back from women in her target group. She finds that 75% of all interviewees say they are not satisfied with their partner’s performance. She concludes that most heterosexual women aged 25-45 are not happy with the sexual performance of their partners.

A national polling organization surveys 1,5000 obstetrician-gynecologists chosen randomly from a national registry of that medical speciality. The survey question is whether obstetrician-gynecologists provide quality care for pregnant women. 98% said ‘yes’. The pollsters conclude that almost all physicians think that obstetrician-gynecologists provide quality care for pregnant women.

Like former Prime Minister Elliott Trudeau, Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff is both a fearsome intellectual and a charismatic speaker. Also like Trudeau, Ignatieff is a passionate defender of social justice. Ignatieff, too, will likely eventually be one of Canada’s great prime ministers.

A national women’s magazine publishes a questionnaire on sexual harassment in the workplace. Respondents are asked to complete the questionnaire and mail in in to the magazine. The magazine receives over 20,000 completed questionnaires in the mail. 62% say they had been sexually harassed at work. The magazine concludes that most women had been sexually harassed at work.

Tolerating a vicious dictator is like tolerating a bully on the block. If you let the bully push you around, sooner or later he will beat you and take everything you have got. If you let a dictator have his way he will abuse his people and let them rob them of life and liberty. If you stand up to the bully just once or—better yet—knock him senseless with a stick, he will never bother you again. Likewise, if you refuse to be coerced by a dictator of if you attack him, his reign will be over. Therefore the best course of action for people oppressed by a dictator is to resist and attack.

In every winter for the past 20 years Montreal received several feet of snow. Therefore, Montreal will receive several feet of snow in the next 50 years.

Two-third of the adults in Toronto say they are in favour of permitting gay marriage. And almost 70% of Montrealers do, too. This makes it perfectly clear that a age majority of people in this country are in favour of gay marriage.

A random, nation-wide poll of several thousand dog-owners shows that 80% of them are against banning vicious breeds of dogs. Thus most adults oppose laws designed to outlaw specific breeds of dogs.

A watch is a mechanism of exquisite complexity with numerous parts precisely arranged and accurately adjusted to achieve a purpose—a purpose imposed by the watch designer. Likewise the universe has exquisite complexity with countless parts—from atoms to asteroids—that fit together precisely and accurately to produce certain effects as though arranged by plan. Therefore, the universe must also have a designer.

Mice are mammals, have a mammalian circulatory system, have a typical mammalian biochemical reactions, respond readily to high-blood-pressure drugs, and experience a reduction in blood cholesterol when given the drug Z. Humans are mammals, have a mammalian circulatory system, have a typical mammalian biochemical reactions, respond readily to high-blood-pressure drugs. Therefore, humans will also experience a reduction in blood cholesterol when given a new drug Z.

An experimental vaccine prevented women from being infected with viru HPV-16 associated with cervical cancers, researchers reported. The study involved 2,392 women, ages 16-23. Participants were randomly assigned to receive three shots of either HPV-16 vaccine or a placebo (a dummy substance). The study was double-blinded (neither participants nor researchers knew who got vaccine and who got placebo. Participants were observed for 17 months—41 women developed HPV-16, all of them from the placebo group. No one who got the vaccine developed HPV-16.

85% of dentist who suggest that their patients chew gum recommend brand X gum. Therefore 85% of dentists recommend brand X gum.

I have asked at least a dozen first-year students at this university whether Canada should support American was effort in Iraq, and they have said ‘no.’ So, most of the students at this university are against such support.

The case before the court involves a search y the city police of a homeless man’s cardboard shelter. At issue is whether it was improper for the police to enter the man’s shelter without either permission or warrant in order to search for evidence of a crime. A similar case—a relevant precedent—involved a search by the RCMP of an equipment trailer in which a man was living. In that case, the court ruled that the RCMP had violated section 8 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms (the section that says, ‘everyone has the right ti be secure against unreasonable search and seizure.’) Therefore, the court should also rule that the search by the police of the homeless man’s shelter violated section 8 of the Charter.

45 patients were admitted to Children’s hospital for pneumonia in December. They were all given standard treatment for pneumonia. After five days, 30 were well enough to go home. The other 15, however, somehow acquired other infections and were not well enough to be released for two weeks. The only common thing to these 15 were that they shared the same ward. Something about it cause prolonged illness.

After the training for police officers was enhanced, violent crime in the city decreased by 10%. So, enhanced training caused the decline in violent crime.

Several new manufacturing plants in the Toronto area have brought jobs to that area as well as improving the city’s tax base without causing significant amount of pollution or noise or disrupting traffic. The same can be said for two new plants that opened up on the outskirts of Montreal as well as plants in Edmonton and Calgary. The plant in Halifax will also provide all the benefits without disadvantages.

The endorsement of the Canadian Auto Worker’s union is essential to getting elected in Oshawa. No one has ever been elected to represent Oshawa in Parliament without the support of CAW.

For most of the school year, the number of disciplinary action taken weekly because of student misconduct at North High School has remained about the same—roughly 10 a week. But last month the number dropped down considerably—to about 6 a week. There can be only one reason: last month a new Code of Student conduct was posted outside of principal’s office.