Review on Energy Resilience

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Energy-resilience--research-trends-at-urban--municipal-and-_2018_Energy-Proc.pdf

ScienceDirect

Available online at www.sciencedirect.comAvailable online at www.sciencedirect.com

ScienceDirect Energy Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000

www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia

1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling.

The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling

Assessing the feasibility of using the heat demand-outdoor temperature function for a long-term district heat demand forecast

I. Andrića,b,c*, A. Pinaa, P. Ferrãoa, J. Fournierb., B. Lacarrièrec, O. Le Correc

aIN+ Center for Innovation, Technology and Policy Research - Instituto Superior Técnico, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal bVeolia Recherche & Innovation, 291 Avenue Dreyfous Daniel, 78520 Limay, France

cDépartement Systèmes Énergétiques et Environnement - IMT Atlantique, 4 rue Alfred Kastler, 44300 Nantes, France

Abstract

District heating networks are commonly addressed in the literature as one of the most effective solutions for decreasing the greenhouse gas emissions from the building sector. These systems require high investments which are returned through the heat sales. Due to the changed climate conditions and building renovation policies, heat demand in the future could decrease, prolonging the investment return period. The main scope of this paper is to assess the feasibility of using the heat demand – outdoor temperature function for heat demand forecast. The district of Alvalade, located in Lisbon (Portugal), was used as a case study. The district is consisted of 665 buildings that vary in both construction period and typology. Three weather scenarios (low, medium, high) and three district renovation scenarios were developed (shallow, intermediate, deep). To estimate the error, obtained heat demand values were compared with results from a dynamic heat demand model, previously developed and validated by the authors. The results showed that when only weather change is considered, the margin of error could be acceptable for some applications (the error in annual demand was lower than 20% for all weather scenarios considered). However, after introducing renovation scenarios, the error value increased up to 59.5% (depending on the weather and renovation scenarios combination considered). The value of slope coefficient increased on average within the range of 3.8% up to 8% per decade, that corresponds to the decrease in the number of heating hours of 22-139h during the heating season (depending on the combination of weather and renovation scenarios considered). On the other hand, function intercept increased for 7.8-12.7% per decade (depending on the coupled scenarios). The values suggested could be used to modify the function parameters for the scenarios considered, and improve the accuracy of heat demand estimations.

© 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling.

Keywords: Heat demand; Forecast; Climate change

Energy Procedia 147 (2018) 104–113

1876-6102  2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the International Scientific Conference ‘Environmental and Climate Technologies’, CONECT 2018. 10.1016/j.egypro.2018.07.039

10.1016/j.egypro.2018.07.039 1876-6102

© 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the International Scientific Conference ‘Environmental and Climate Technologies’, CONECT 2018.

Available online at www.sciencedirect.com

ScienceDirect Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia

1876-6102 © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the International Scientific Conference ‘Environmental and Climate Technologies’, CONECT 2018.

International Scientific Conference “Environmental and Climate Technologies”, CONECT 2018

Energy resilience: research trends at urban, municipal and country levels

Marina Mola*, Maksims Feofilovs, Francesco Romagnoli Institute of Energy Systems and Environment, Riga Technical University, Azenes iela 12/1, Riga, LV-1048, Latvia

Abstract

The fulfilment of basic human physical and social needs in a modern world depends on electricity usage and energy-powered systems. This includes electricity for cooking, food and drink preservation, IOT applications in smart homes, transportation and telecommunications. Thus threats on energy supply disruptions can become an everyday concern for an individual; this background justified the nowadays growing interest in energy resilience in the arenas of both scientists and policy planners. Moreover, there is a lack of information available specifically on the municipal level in turn suggesting to move towards the definition of schemes or guidelines for municipalities aiming to reach concrete measure in enhancing energy resilience. This paper is a literature review on the topic of energy resilience specifically addressed to the overall electrical infrastructural system. The authors pay particular attention to selection of various and relevant information sources in order to identify trends and gaps in research within the proposed subject in the last decade. For this reason, an analysis of existing research on municipal and country levels is carried out. More than 6000 scientific articles were used and about 90 were analyzed in-depth in order to create consistent trends based on a specific literature review methodological approach. © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the International Scientific Conference ‘Environmental and Climate Technologies’, CONECT 2018.

Keywords: energy resilience; renewable energy grid; climate impact; energy crisis

* Corresponding author.

E-mail address: [email protected]

Available online at www.sciencedirect.com

ScienceDirect Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia

1876-6102 © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the International Scientific Conference ‘Environmental and Climate Technologies’, CONECT 2018.

International Scientific Conference “Environmental and Climate Technologies”, CONECT 2018

Energy resilience: research trends at urban, municipal and country levels

Marina Mola*, Maksims Feofilovs, Francesco Romagnoli Institute of Energy Systems and Environment, Riga Technical University, Azenes iela 12/1, Riga, LV-1048, Latvia

Abstract

The fulfilment of basic human physical and social needs in a modern world depends on electricity usage and energy-powered systems. This includes electricity for cooking, food and drink preservation, IOT applications in smart homes, transportation and telecommunications. Thus threats on energy supply disruptions can become an everyday concern for an individual; this background justified the nowadays growing interest in energy resilience in the arenas of both scientists and policy planners. Moreover, there is a lack of information available specifically on the municipal level in turn suggesting to move towards the definition of schemes or guidelines for municipalities aiming to reach concrete measure in enhancing energy resilience. This paper is a literature review on the topic of energy resilience specifically addressed to the overall electrical infrastructural system. The authors pay particular attention to selection of various and relevant information sources in order to identify trends and gaps in research within the proposed subject in the last decade. For this reason, an analysis of existing research on municipal and country levels is carried out. More than 6000 scientific articles were used and about 90 were analyzed in-depth in order to create consistent trends based on a specific literature review methodological approach. © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the International Scientific Conference ‘Environmental and Climate Technologies’, CONECT 2018.

Keywords: energy resilience; renewable energy grid; climate impact; energy crisis

* Corresponding author.

E-mail address: [email protected]

2 Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

1. Introduction

Energy security [1–6] of communities around the world is under significant risks [7]. Technological development is a pressing need to deal with the problems of a growing population avoiding to exceed the ‘‘carrying capacity’’ of the planet, i.e. the number of people that can sustainably live on the planet at a given level of technological and economic development [8]. Researchers all over the world are trying to find new approaches [9] to make human life safer. Considering this, resilience research in many disciplines has become more topical than ever before.

Resilience is a term widely used in public discourse as well as in research [10] and has a variety of definitions because of its use in different sciences. Originated and developed in physics and psychology, resilience has been traditionally used as a measure of stability that indicates the ability of an object to survive a shock or trauma and return to the equilibrium state in a timely manner. It is generally understood to mean the ability to cope with misfortune, shock [11] and the unexpected [10]. As a concept, it purports to serve as a useful indicator of sustainability and robustness, but has proved difficult to measure. Energy resilience is a strand that is not well-studied in urban studies literature [12]. In power systems, the concept of resilience can be broadly defined as the ability of a power system to withstand initial shock [13], rapidly recover from a disruptive event and apply adaptation measures for mitigating the impact of similar events in the future [14].

The power sector is at a phase of shifting from a conventional distribution system to the smart grid [15] system with the integration of renewable energy resources [16–18]. By substituting fossil fuels in energy production with renewable energy, reduction of carbon emissions is achieved. At the same time, diversification of energy production ensures security of energy supplies. This increases power system resilience and reduces its vulnerability. In this case, vulnerability can be defined as a condition or a process resulting from a given (natural or man-made) hazard [11] and can be defined as the joint conditional probability of disruption in an energy system due to hazard likelihood, hazard potential impact and system capacity [19].

Unfortunately, energy resilience remains an unfamiliar topic for local communities. Considering that improvements of the local community resilience would contribute to the larger scale applications, it is important to deal with the lack of information about energy resilience on the municipal level. About 90 % of the information found by the author is about large scale energy resilience, mostly country-level, EU-level and higher. This highlights the gap in the country-wide resilience. Energy resilience of a country is comprised of municipal and regional energy resilience and cannot be considered perfect if there are no energy resilience strategies on the municipal level.

The remainder of this paper is organized as follows: Section 2 describes the used methodology; Section 3 is an analysis of authors’ findings and results; Section 4 – conclusions.

2. Methodology

The algorithm using a Boolean approach for searching relevant papers useful within this research was: “Resilience and energy” or “Resilience and power”. Search queries in Scopus by article titles, abstracts and keywords on this subject gave the following results: about 6490 documents matched the searching criteria. After analysing the given information, only 93 articles were proven to be useful for this research and were investigated in-depth creating a table of key topics to perform an overall analysis and have a clearer picture of the growing importance of the specific research subject (see attached in the annex). Thus, within each relevant publication, information on the following topics was used:

 Renewable energy: in terms of opportunities of using renewable energy;  Grid: in terms of the grid’s analysis;  Energy security;  Hazards: in terms of identifying if single hazards (i.e. storms, tsunamis, earthquakes etc.) or multihazards

scenarios were proposed;  Shocks (stress) to energy system: interruptions and recover of the energy system;  Modelling: types of modelling types used;  Energy crisis and criticalities: in terms of energy shortages and interruptions;  Climate impact – how climate impacts an energy system’s resilience.

Marina Mola et al. / Energy Procedia 147 (2018) 104–113 105

Available online at www.sciencedirect.com

ScienceDirect Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia

1876-6102 © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the International Scientific Conference ‘Environmental and Climate Technologies’, CONECT 2018.

International Scientific Conference “Environmental and Climate Technologies”, CONECT 2018

Energy resilience: research trends at urban, municipal and country levels

Marina Mola*, Maksims Feofilovs, Francesco Romagnoli Institute of Energy Systems and Environment, Riga Technical University, Azenes iela 12/1, Riga, LV-1048, Latvia

Abstract

The fulfilment of basic human physical and social needs in a modern world depends on electricity usage and energy-powered systems. This includes electricity for cooking, food and drink preservation, IOT applications in smart homes, transportation and telecommunications. Thus threats on energy supply disruptions can become an everyday concern for an individual; this background justified the nowadays growing interest in energy resilience in the arenas of both scientists and policy planners. Moreover, there is a lack of information available specifically on the municipal level in turn suggesting to move towards the definition of schemes or guidelines for municipalities aiming to reach concrete measure in enhancing energy resilience. This paper is a literature review on the topic of energy resilience specifically addressed to the overall electrical infrastructural system. The authors pay particular attention to selection of various and relevant information sources in order to identify trends and gaps in research within the proposed subject in the last decade. For this reason, an analysis of existing research on municipal and country levels is carried out. More than 6000 scientific articles were used and about 90 were analyzed in-depth in order to create consistent trends based on a specific literature review methodological approach. © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the International Scientific Conference ‘Environmental and Climate Technologies’, CONECT 2018.

Keywords: energy resilience; renewable energy grid; climate impact; energy crisis

* Corresponding author.

E-mail address: [email protected]

Available online at www.sciencedirect.com

ScienceDirect Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia

1876-6102 © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the International Scientific Conference ‘Environmental and Climate Technologies’, CONECT 2018.

International Scientific Conference “Environmental and Climate Technologies”, CONECT 2018

Energy resilience: research trends at urban, municipal and country levels

Marina Mola*, Maksims Feofilovs, Francesco Romagnoli Institute of Energy Systems and Environment, Riga Technical University, Azenes iela 12/1, Riga, LV-1048, Latvia

Abstract

The fulfilment of basic human physical and social needs in a modern world depends on electricity usage and energy-powered systems. This includes electricity for cooking, food and drink preservation, IOT applications in smart homes, transportation and telecommunications. Thus threats on energy supply disruptions can become an everyday concern for an individual; this background justified the nowadays growing interest in energy resilience in the arenas of both scientists and policy planners. Moreover, there is a lack of information available specifically on the municipal level in turn suggesting to move towards the definition of schemes or guidelines for municipalities aiming to reach concrete measure in enhancing energy resilience. This paper is a literature review on the topic of energy resilience specifically addressed to the overall electrical infrastructural system. The authors pay particular attention to selection of various and relevant information sources in order to identify trends and gaps in research within the proposed subject in the last decade. For this reason, an analysis of existing research on municipal and country levels is carried out. More than 6000 scientific articles were used and about 90 were analyzed in-depth in order to create consistent trends based on a specific literature review methodological approach. © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the International Scientific Conference ‘Environmental and Climate Technologies’, CONECT 2018.

Keywords: energy resilience; renewable energy grid; climate impact; energy crisis

* Corresponding author.

E-mail address: [email protected]

2 Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

1. Introduction

Energy security [1–6] of communities around the world is under significant risks [7]. Technological development is a pressing need to deal with the problems of a growing population avoiding to exceed the ‘‘carrying capacity’’ of the planet, i.e. the number of people that can sustainably live on the planet at a given level of technological and economic development [8]. Researchers all over the world are trying to find new approaches [9] to make human life safer. Considering this, resilience research in many disciplines has become more topical than ever before.

Resilience is a term widely used in public discourse as well as in research [10] and has a variety of definitions because of its use in different sciences. Originated and developed in physics and psychology, resilience has been traditionally used as a measure of stability that indicates the ability of an object to survive a shock or trauma and return to the equilibrium state in a timely manner. It is generally understood to mean the ability to cope with misfortune, shock [11] and the unexpected [10]. As a concept, it purports to serve as a useful indicator of sustainability and robustness, but has proved difficult to measure. Energy resilience is a strand that is not well-studied in urban studies literature [12]. In power systems, the concept of resilience can be broadly defined as the ability of a power system to withstand initial shock [13], rapidly recover from a disruptive event and apply adaptation measures for mitigating the impact of similar events in the future [14].

The power sector is at a phase of shifting from a conventional distribution system to the smart grid [15] system with the integration of renewable energy resources [16–18]. By substituting fossil fuels in energy production with renewable energy, reduction of carbon emissions is achieved. At the same time, diversification of energy production ensures security of energy supplies. This increases power system resilience and reduces its vulnerability. In this case, vulnerability can be defined as a condition or a process resulting from a given (natural or man-made) hazard [11] and can be defined as the joint conditional probability of disruption in an energy system due to hazard likelihood, hazard potential impact and system capacity [19].

Unfortunately, energy resilience remains an unfamiliar topic for local communities. Considering that improvements of the local community resilience would contribute to the larger scale applications, it is important to deal with the lack of information about energy resilience on the municipal level. About 90 % of the information found by the author is about large scale energy resilience, mostly country-level, EU-level and higher. This highlights the gap in the country-wide resilience. Energy resilience of a country is comprised of municipal and regional energy resilience and cannot be considered perfect if there are no energy resilience strategies on the municipal level.

The remainder of this paper is organized as follows: Section 2 describes the used methodology; Section 3 is an analysis of authors’ findings and results; Section 4 – conclusions.

2. Methodology

The algorithm using a Boolean approach for searching relevant papers useful within this research was: “Resilience and energy” or “Resilience and power”. Search queries in Scopus by article titles, abstracts and keywords on this subject gave the following results: about 6490 documents matched the searching criteria. After analysing the given information, only 93 articles were proven to be useful for this research and were investigated in-depth creating a table of key topics to perform an overall analysis and have a clearer picture of the growing importance of the specific research subject (see attached in the annex). Thus, within each relevant publication, information on the following topics was used:

 Renewable energy: in terms of opportunities of using renewable energy;  Grid: in terms of the grid’s analysis;  Energy security;  Hazards: in terms of identifying if single hazards (i.e. storms, tsunamis, earthquakes etc.) or multihazards

scenarios were proposed;  Shocks (stress) to energy system: interruptions and recover of the energy system;  Modelling: types of modelling types used;  Energy crisis and criticalities: in terms of energy shortages and interruptions;  Climate impact – how climate impacts an energy system’s resilience.

106 Marina Mola et al. / Energy Procedia 147 (2018) 104–113 Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000 3

The authors have also observed the scale of the studies: municipal, country or other. Figures of the exact populations in the researched areas are also provided.

3. Analysis of findings and results

After the analysis of the search results by year, source, author, country type, subject area and other factors, statistical conclusions were made. Energy resilience research was not common until year 2000 (Fig. 1), but after there was an exponential growth of research on this topic. Clearly there is a rising demand for energy resilience research, especially in the last decade.

1000

800

600

400

200

0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

D oc

um en

ts

1200

Fig. 1. Documents on energy resilience, grouped by year.

As shown in Fig. 2(a) there are many universities dealing with energy resilience issues. Moreover Fig. 2(a) shows the universities with the most documents published about energy resilience are in the United States and the United Kingdom. This is mainly driven by the particular attention devoted on risk reduction in these countries. As shown in Fig. 2(b), documents on energy resilience are published in the United States (by document count) more than anywhere else, and United Kingdom stands out as the second country by number of documents.

Purdue University

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

CNRS Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

Arizona State University

Georgia Institute of Technology

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

University of Manchester

Chinese Academy of Sciences

UCL

Politecnico di Milano

Documents

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

(a)

4 Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

United States

United Kingdom

China

Australia

Germany

Italy

Canada

France

India

Netherlands

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400

Documents (b)

Fig. 2. (a) Search results by author’s organization; (b) search results grouped by country/territory.

Fig. 3 shows the results classified by different subject areas. The biggest share of search results is under the subject of engineering. Shares of subjects of environmental sciences and energy are also notable. This is relevant to see how energy resilience is more specifically devoted to the optimization of the engineering infrastructural systems but still keep it the multi- and inter- disciplinary perspective typical of the resilient concept.

Fig. 3. Search results grouped by subject area.

The authors collected around 6500 articles and the results of a preliminary screening based only on the title and a second one based on the reading of the abstract found that 93 articles were viable for the purposes of this research. These 93 articles were linked to the following relevant topics, or were closely connected to these keywords: renewable energy [20], grid [21], security [22], hazards [23], shocks [24], stress [25], modelling, energy crisis, climate impact [26].

Renewable energy [27, 28] is considered the future of energy systems, because it substitutes conventional fossil fuels and diversifies energy supplies, in turn increasing energy system resilience. Thus renewable resource use has

Other; 38,4 %

Engineering; 33,1 %

Computer Science; 24,8 %

Social Sciences; 17,1 %

Environmental Sciences; 16,2 %

Energy; 10,1 %

Agricultural and Bological Sciences;

8,9 %

Medicine; 8 %

Mathematics; 6,9 %

Materials Sciences; 6,6 % Undefined; 0,1 %

Marina Mola et al. / Energy Procedia 147 (2018) 104–113 107 Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000 3

The authors have also observed the scale of the studies: municipal, country or other. Figures of the exact populations in the researched areas are also provided.

3. Analysis of findings and results

After the analysis of the search results by year, source, author, country type, subject area and other factors, statistical conclusions were made. Energy resilience research was not common until year 2000 (Fig. 1), but after there was an exponential growth of research on this topic. Clearly there is a rising demand for energy resilience research, especially in the last decade.

1000

800

600

400

200

0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

D oc

um en

ts

1200

Fig. 1. Documents on energy resilience, grouped by year.

As shown in Fig. 2(a) there are many universities dealing with energy resilience issues. Moreover Fig. 2(a) shows the universities with the most documents published about energy resilience are in the United States and the United Kingdom. This is mainly driven by the particular attention devoted on risk reduction in these countries. As shown in Fig. 2(b), documents on energy resilience are published in the United States (by document count) more than anywhere else, and United Kingdom stands out as the second country by number of documents.

Purdue University

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

CNRS Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

Arizona State University

Georgia Institute of Technology

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

University of Manchester

Chinese Academy of Sciences

UCL

Politecnico di Milano

Documents

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

(a)

4 Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

United States

United Kingdom

China

Australia

Germany

Italy

Canada

France

India

Netherlands

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400

Documents (b)

Fig. 2. (a) Search results by author’s organization; (b) search results grouped by country/territory.

Fig. 3 shows the results classified by different subject areas. The biggest share of search results is under the subject of engineering. Shares of subjects of environmental sciences and energy are also notable. This is relevant to see how energy resilience is more specifically devoted to the optimization of the engineering infrastructural systems but still keep it the multi- and inter- disciplinary perspective typical of the resilient concept.

Fig. 3. Search results grouped by subject area.

The authors collected around 6500 articles and the results of a preliminary screening based only on the title and a second one based on the reading of the abstract found that 93 articles were viable for the purposes of this research. These 93 articles were linked to the following relevant topics, or were closely connected to these keywords: renewable energy [20], grid [21], security [22], hazards [23], shocks [24], stress [25], modelling, energy crisis, climate impact [26].

Renewable energy [27, 28] is considered the future of energy systems, because it substitutes conventional fossil fuels and diversifies energy supplies, in turn increasing energy system resilience. Thus renewable resource use has

Other; 38,4 %

Engineering; 33,1 %

Computer Science; 24,8 %

Social Sciences; 17,1 %

Environmental Sciences; 16,2 %

Energy; 10,1 %

Agricultural and Bological Sciences;

8,9 %

Medicine; 8 %

Mathematics; 6,9 %

Materials Sciences; 6,6 % Undefined; 0,1 %

108 Marina Mola et al. / Energy Procedia 147 (2018) 104–113 Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000 5

a positive effect on energy resilience and several studies are performed and base their outcomes on this topic. Results of this search included 61 articles with the keyword “renewable resources” [29].

Grid [30] is the main part of infrastructure to supply electricity. Without the grid [31] it is not possible to ensure electricity supply from power plants throughout a populated area, thus decreasing risk on energy distribution result to be a relevant factor. The keyword “grid” was mentioned in 32 articles.

Extreme weather events as natural hazards that can cause abrupt and unforeseen disruptions to electricity generation and supply [32]. For that reason, performing risk analysis of disruptions in power systems with the help and support of specific modelling approaches [11, 14, 33–54] is very popular nowadays. Different software and simulation tools allow determining the probabilistic risk of disruptions in electricity generation and supply. These tools allow understanding weaknesses of existing power systems and threats to security of energy supply caused by stresses and shocks, and give information for decision making for improvements. 34 articles were about security, 20 about hazards (for example storms or hurricanes), 18 about shock and stress, 24 about various kinds of modelling, 30 on energy crisis and 28 about climate impact (more information in the annex).

The scope of research in many articles was specified for a single country, for example, Rwanda [55, 56], Bangladesh [57–61], Palestine [62], Pakistan [36, 63–71], Nigeria [72–76], Sweden [77], Australia [39, 78], Germany [40, 79, 80], Japan [44, 80–83], Hungary [45], Turkey [54, 84–86], Greece [46], Finland [87] and many others. In most of such studies the use of renewable energy was investigated in terms of the perspective of the chosen country. Many articles considered countries with hundreds of millions of inhabitants, for example, [36, 44, 57–61, 63–76, 81, 82]. By population, the largest country researched is India, with more than a billion inhabitants in [88]. The largest scale observed in this search for articles was regional, specifically, articles on the Asia-Pacific region [89]. It is important to point out that analysis for the municipal data is miscellaneous as the scale of municipalities varies: some municipalities consist of 690 [37], others of 9000 inhabitants, [43, 90], of approximately 37 million people. Search results show that there are significantly more articles for municipalities with a large population (in the order of millions of inhabitants) [42, 47, 91, 92], than for those where population is small. Here, interesting fact to point out is that search results include countries with less than a million inhabitants, for example Cyprus [51], meaning that sometimes country scale is smaller, than for a big municipality [91].

Overall the articles analysed have been divided into three major categories namely: urban level, municipal level and country level. Nevertheless it was impossible to have information about the scale of the study on 20 articles. The set of analysed papers was including: 53 countries, 14 municipal and 5 urban level materials. This information is reflected in Table 1 below for easier reference and comprehension.

Table 1. Topics in analysed articles.

Research level Renewable energy

Grid Security Hazards Shocks, stress

Modelling Energy crisis

Climate impact

Country level 86.79 % 18.87 % 28.30 % 7.55 % 7.55 % 20.75 % 41.51 % 26.42 %

Municipal level 35.7 % 57.1 % 35.7 % 42.9 % 14.3 % 50.0 % 28.6 % 28.6 %

Urban level 60.0 % 40.0 % 60.0 % 60.0 % 40.0 % 40.0 % 60.0 % 60.0 %

Table 1 clearly reflects that there is not enough research about shocks and hazards in energy systems on both

country and municipal levels. There is also a lack of country level energy grid modelling, while at the same time there is substantial data for municipal and urban levels on this topic. Energy crisis scenarios and climate impact are not being thoroughly researched on the municipal level, whereas urban and country level research are somewhat covered. This can be explained by the fact that between 60 % and 80 % of energy is consumed in urban areas [12], while for country level policy planners consider the energy crisis scenarios in energy policy process.

4. Conclusions

There is a clear exponential growth of the number of articles and researches on energy resilience over the last two decades. This indicates that the energy resilience topic is a current interest.

6 Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

Research scale is an important part of this analysis. Most of the reviewed articles were carried out on the country level. Energy resilience on the municipal level is often underestimated and there is not much information in this field of research.

Selected articles were analysed by keywords “Renewable energy”, “Grid”, “Energy security”, “Hazards”, “Shocks (stress)”, “Modelling”, “Energy crisis” and “Climate impact”. The most used method of analysis in the search results was case study. Other methods include conceptual frameworks [93], optimization models, literature reviews or other scientific approaches. Usually grids, hazards and modelling are provided in research, however there is a need for more data about shocks and stresses.

The amount of researches that considers urban level is limited – only 5 articles were available. The authors also found the amount of research on the municipal level to be insufficient – 14 articles. More documents are available for larger scale areas. Most researches were found for country level – 53 articles. There is sufficient information about renewable energy sources; energy crisis is covered in half of the cases. There is not much information about climate impact, modelling, security and grids on the country level.

Appendix A. Analyzing the articles, a table was created

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[93] Conceptual framework

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[7] Case study + - + - + - + - Urban level

[33] Comparative analysis

- + - + - + - + Fictional city, urban level

[9] Conceptual framework

+ - + + + - + + Micro, meso, macro level

[34] Case study - + - + + + + - Regional level

[55] Case study + - - - - - + - Country level

[92] Case study + - - - - - - - Municipal level

[61] Case study + - - - - - + - Country level

[35] Optimization model - + + - + + - - -

[60] Case study + - - - - - + - Country level

[62] Case study + - - - - - + - Country level

[36] Case study + - - - - + + - Country level

[72] Case study + - - - - - - - Country level

[63] Optimization model + - - - - - + - Country level

[66] Optimization model + - - - - - - - Country level

[3] An overview + - + - + - - - Macro and micro- economics

[77] Descriptive analysis - - + + + - + - Country level

[37] Optimization model - + - - - + - - Regional level

[38] Modeling approach - + + - + + - - -

[39] Optimization model + - - - - + - - Country level

[78] Optimization model + + + - - - - + Country level

[64] Case study - + + - + - + - Country level

[32] Case study + - - - - - - + National, regional, or state-level

[40] Case study + - - - - + - + Country level

Marina Mola et al. / Energy Procedia 147 (2018) 104–113 109 Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000 5

a positive effect on energy resilience and several studies are performed and base their outcomes on this topic. Results of this search included 61 articles with the keyword “renewable resources” [29].

Grid [30] is the main part of infrastructure to supply electricity. Without the grid [31] it is not possible to ensure electricity supply from power plants throughout a populated area, thus decreasing risk on energy distribution result to be a relevant factor. The keyword “grid” was mentioned in 32 articles.

Extreme weather events as natural hazards that can cause abrupt and unforeseen disruptions to electricity generation and supply [32]. For that reason, performing risk analysis of disruptions in power systems with the help and support of specific modelling approaches [11, 14, 33–54] is very popular nowadays. Different software and simulation tools allow determining the probabilistic risk of disruptions in electricity generation and supply. These tools allow understanding weaknesses of existing power systems and threats to security of energy supply caused by stresses and shocks, and give information for decision making for improvements. 34 articles were about security, 20 about hazards (for example storms or hurricanes), 18 about shock and stress, 24 about various kinds of modelling, 30 on energy crisis and 28 about climate impact (more information in the annex).

The scope of research in many articles was specified for a single country, for example, Rwanda [55, 56], Bangladesh [57–61], Palestine [62], Pakistan [36, 63–71], Nigeria [72–76], Sweden [77], Australia [39, 78], Germany [40, 79, 80], Japan [44, 80–83], Hungary [45], Turkey [54, 84–86], Greece [46], Finland [87] and many others. In most of such studies the use of renewable energy was investigated in terms of the perspective of the chosen country. Many articles considered countries with hundreds of millions of inhabitants, for example, [36, 44, 57–61, 63–76, 81, 82]. By population, the largest country researched is India, with more than a billion inhabitants in [88]. The largest scale observed in this search for articles was regional, specifically, articles on the Asia-Pacific region [89]. It is important to point out that analysis for the municipal data is miscellaneous as the scale of municipalities varies: some municipalities consist of 690 [37], others of 9000 inhabitants, [43, 90], of approximately 37 million people. Search results show that there are significantly more articles for municipalities with a large population (in the order of millions of inhabitants) [42, 47, 91, 92], than for those where population is small. Here, interesting fact to point out is that search results include countries with less than a million inhabitants, for example Cyprus [51], meaning that sometimes country scale is smaller, than for a big municipality [91].

Overall the articles analysed have been divided into three major categories namely: urban level, municipal level and country level. Nevertheless it was impossible to have information about the scale of the study on 20 articles. The set of analysed papers was including: 53 countries, 14 municipal and 5 urban level materials. This information is reflected in Table 1 below for easier reference and comprehension.

Table 1. Topics in analysed articles.

Research level Renewable energy

Grid Security Hazards Shocks, stress

Modelling Energy crisis

Climate impact

Country level 86.79 % 18.87 % 28.30 % 7.55 % 7.55 % 20.75 % 41.51 % 26.42 %

Municipal level 35.7 % 57.1 % 35.7 % 42.9 % 14.3 % 50.0 % 28.6 % 28.6 %

Urban level 60.0 % 40.0 % 60.0 % 60.0 % 40.0 % 40.0 % 60.0 % 60.0 %

Table 1 clearly reflects that there is not enough research about shocks and hazards in energy systems on both

country and municipal levels. There is also a lack of country level energy grid modelling, while at the same time there is substantial data for municipal and urban levels on this topic. Energy crisis scenarios and climate impact are not being thoroughly researched on the municipal level, whereas urban and country level research are somewhat covered. This can be explained by the fact that between 60 % and 80 % of energy is consumed in urban areas [12], while for country level policy planners consider the energy crisis scenarios in energy policy process.

4. Conclusions

There is a clear exponential growth of the number of articles and researches on energy resilience over the last two decades. This indicates that the energy resilience topic is a current interest.

6 Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

Research scale is an important part of this analysis. Most of the reviewed articles were carried out on the country level. Energy resilience on the municipal level is often underestimated and there is not much information in this field of research.

Selected articles were analysed by keywords “Renewable energy”, “Grid”, “Energy security”, “Hazards”, “Shocks (stress)”, “Modelling”, “Energy crisis” and “Climate impact”. The most used method of analysis in the search results was case study. Other methods include conceptual frameworks [93], optimization models, literature reviews or other scientific approaches. Usually grids, hazards and modelling are provided in research, however there is a need for more data about shocks and stresses.

The amount of researches that considers urban level is limited – only 5 articles were available. The authors also found the amount of research on the municipal level to be insufficient – 14 articles. More documents are available for larger scale areas. Most researches were found for country level – 53 articles. There is sufficient information about renewable energy sources; energy crisis is covered in half of the cases. There is not much information about climate impact, modelling, security and grids on the country level.

Appendix A. Analyzing the articles, a table was created

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L ev

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[93] Conceptual framework

+ - + + - - + + Urban level

[7] Case study + - + - + - + - Urban level

[33] Comparative analysis

- + - + - + - + Fictional city, urban level

[9] Conceptual framework

+ - + + + - + + Micro, meso, macro level

[34] Case study - + - + + + + - Regional level

[55] Case study + - - - - - + - Country level

[92] Case study + - - - - - - - Municipal level

[61] Case study + - - - - - + - Country level

[35] Optimization model - + + - + + - - -

[60] Case study + - - - - - + - Country level

[62] Case study + - - - - - + - Country level

[36] Case study + - - - - + + - Country level

[72] Case study + - - - - - - - Country level

[63] Optimization model + - - - - - + - Country level

[66] Optimization model + - - - - - - - Country level

[3] An overview + - + - + - - - Macro and micro- economics

[77] Descriptive analysis - - + + + - + - Country level

[37] Optimization model - + - - - + - - Regional level

[38] Modeling approach - + + - + + - - -

[39] Optimization model + - - - - + - - Country level

[78] Optimization model + + + - - - - + Country level

[64] Case study - + + - + - + - Country level

[32] Case study + - - - - - - + National, regional, or state-level

[40] Case study + - - - - + - + Country level

110 Marina Mola et al. / Energy Procedia 147 (2018) 104–113 Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000 7

[80] Descriptive analisys + - + + - - - + Country level

[1] Case study - - + - - - - - Country level

[4] Case study - - + - - - - - Country level

[41] Case study - + - - + + - - -

[74] Case study + + - - - - + + Country level

[71] Case study + - - - - - + - Country level

[2] Case study + + + - - - - + Country level

[6] Descriptive analisys - + + + - - + - 1/6 Country India

[58] Case study + + + - - - + - Country level

[5] Literature review - - + - - - - - Country level

[27] Case study + - - - - - + + Country level

[28] Case study + + + - - - - + World level

[65] Case study + - - - - - + - Country level

[57] Case study + - - - - - + + Country level

[26] Case study - - - - - - - + Municipal and Country level

[42] Case study - + + + - + - - Municipal level

[43] Case study - + + + - + - - Municipal level

[89] Case study - - + - + - - - Country level

[81] Case study + - - - - - - - Country level

[16] Case study + - + - - - - - Country level

[17] Literature review + - - + - - - + -

[90] Case study + + - - - - + - Municipal level

[44] Case study + + + + + + - - Country level

[11] Conceptual framework - + - + + + - + -

[21] Literature review - + - + - - - + -

[45] Case study + - - - - + - - Country level

[20] Case study + - - - - - - - Country level

[46] Case study - - - - - + - - Urban level, City level

[23] Literature review - - - + - - - + -

[10] Literature review + - + - - - - + Country level

[22] Case study - + + - - - - - Continent level

[47] Optimization model - + - + - + - + Municipal level

[14] Optimization model - + + + - + - + Country level

[19] Case study - + + + - - - - -

[48] Optimization model - + - - - + - - Regional level

[15] Case study - + + - - - - - -

[56] Case study + - - - - - + - Country level

[86] Case study + - - - - - - - Country level

[82] Case study + - - - - - - - Country level

[12] Literature review + + + + + - + + Urban level

[70] Case study + + - - - - - + Country level

[59] Case study + - + - - - + - Country level

[84] Case study + - - - - - - - Country level

[67] Optimization model + - - - - - + - Country level

8 Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

[18] Case study + + - - - - - - -

[85] Case study + - - - - - - + Country level

[73] Case study + - - - - - + - Country level

[88] Case study + - - - - - + - Country level

[68] Case study + + - - - - + - Country level

[49] Case study + - - - - + - - Country level

[75] Case study + - - - - - + - Country level

[30] Conceptual framework + + - - - - - - -

[87] Case study + - - - - - - - Country level

[29] Literature review + - - - - - - - Country level

[76] Case study + + - - - - + + Country level

[50] Case study + - - - - + - - Country level

[25] Conceptual framework

+ - - - + - - - -

[69] Case study + - - - - - - - Country level

[24] Case study - - + - + - - - -

[51] Case study + - - - - + - + Country level

[13] Case study - - + - + - - + -

[52] Case study + - - - - + - - European Union, all countries

[31] Case study - + + + + - - - -

[53] Case study - - - - - + - - Municipal level

[79] Case study + - + + + - - + Regional level

[54] Case study + - - - - + - + Country level

[91] Case study + - + - - - + - Municipal level

References

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Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 2013;24:9–20. [3] Mansson A, Johansson B, Nilsson LJ. Assessing energy security: An overview of commonly used methodologies. Energy 2014;73:1–14. [4] Sander M. Conceptual proposals for measuring the impact of international regimes on energy security. Energy Policy 2013;63:449–57. [5] Ang BW, Choong WL, Ng TS. Energy security: Definitions, dimensions and indexes. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 2015;42:1077–93. [6] Ranjan A, Hughes L. Energy security and the diversity of energy flows in an energy system. Energy 2014;73:137–44. [7] Hughes L, de Jong M, Wang WQ. A generic method for analyzing the risks to energy systems. Appl. Energy 2016;180:895–908. [8] Friedrichs J. Peak energy and climate change: The double bind of post-normal science. Futures 2011;43(4):469–77. [9] Kucharski J, Unesaki H. A Policy-oriented Approach to Energy Security. Procedia Environ. Sci. 2015;28:27–36. [10] Molyneaux L, Brown C, Wagner L, Foster J. Measuring resilience in energy systems: Insights from a range of disciplines. Renew. Sustain.

Energy Rev. 2016;59:1068–79. [11] Panteli M, Mancarella P. Influence of extreme weather and climate change on the resilience of power systems: Impacts and possible

mitigation strategies. Electr. Power Syst. Res. 2015;127:259–70. [12] Sharifi A, Yamagata Y. Principles and criteria for assessing urban energy resilience: A literature review. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev.

2016;60:1654–77. [13] Hughes L. The effects of event occurrence and duration on resilience and adaptation in energy systems. Energy 2015;84:443–54. [14] Espinoza S, Panteli M, Mancarella P, Rudnick H. Multi-phase assessment and adaptation of power systems resilience to natural hazards.

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[80] Descriptive analisys + - + + - - - + Country level

[1] Case study - - + - - - - - Country level

[4] Case study - - + - - - - - Country level

[41] Case study - + - - + + - - -

[74] Case study + + - - - - + + Country level

[71] Case study + - - - - - + - Country level

[2] Case study + + + - - - - + Country level

[6] Descriptive analisys - + + + - - + - 1/6 Country India

[58] Case study + + + - - - + - Country level

[5] Literature review - - + - - - - - Country level

[27] Case study + - - - - - + + Country level

[28] Case study + + + - - - - + World level

[65] Case study + - - - - - + - Country level

[57] Case study + - - - - - + + Country level

[26] Case study - - - - - - - + Municipal and Country level

[42] Case study - + + + - + - - Municipal level

[43] Case study - + + + - + - - Municipal level

[89] Case study - - + - + - - - Country level

[81] Case study + - - - - - - - Country level

[16] Case study + - + - - - - - Country level

[17] Literature review + - - + - - - + -

[90] Case study + + - - - - + - Municipal level

[44] Case study + + + + + + - - Country level

[11] Conceptual framework - + - + + + - + -

[21] Literature review - + - + - - - + -

[45] Case study + - - - - + - - Country level

[20] Case study + - - - - - - - Country level

[46] Case study - - - - - + - - Urban level, City level

[23] Literature review - - - + - - - + -

[10] Literature review + - + - - - - + Country level

[22] Case study - + + - - - - - Continent level

[47] Optimization model - + - + - + - + Municipal level

[14] Optimization model - + + + - + - + Country level

[19] Case study - + + + - - - - -

[48] Optimization model - + - - - + - - Regional level

[15] Case study - + + - - - - - -

[56] Case study + - - - - - + - Country level

[86] Case study + - - - - - - - Country level

[82] Case study + - - - - - - - Country level

[12] Literature review + + + + + - + + Urban level

[70] Case study + + - - - - - + Country level

[59] Case study + - + - - - + - Country level

[84] Case study + - - - - - - - Country level

[67] Optimization model + - - - - - + - Country level

8 Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

[18] Case study + + - - - - - - -

[85] Case study + - - - - - - + Country level

[73] Case study + - - - - - + - Country level

[88] Case study + - - - - - + - Country level

[68] Case study + + - - - - + - Country level

[49] Case study + - - - - + - - Country level

[75] Case study + - - - - - + - Country level

[30] Conceptual framework + + - - - - - - -

[87] Case study + - - - - - - - Country level

[29] Literature review + - - - - - - - Country level

[76] Case study + + - - - - + + Country level

[50] Case study + - - - - + - - Country level

[25] Conceptual framework

+ - - - + - - - -

[69] Case study + - - - - - - - Country level

[24] Case study - - + - + - - - -

[51] Case study + - - - - + - + Country level

[13] Case study - - + - + - - + -

[52] Case study + - - - - + - - European Union, all countries

[31] Case study - + + + + - - - -

[53] Case study - - - - - + - - Municipal level

[79] Case study + - + + + - - + Regional level

[54] Case study + - - - - + - + Country level

[91] Case study + - + - - - + - Municipal level

References

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Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 2013;24:9–20. [3] Mansson A, Johansson B, Nilsson LJ. Assessing energy security: An overview of commonly used methodologies. Energy 2014;73:1–14. [4] Sander M. Conceptual proposals for measuring the impact of international regimes on energy security. Energy Policy 2013;63:449–57. [5] Ang BW, Choong WL, Ng TS. Energy security: Definitions, dimensions and indexes. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 2015;42:1077–93. [6] Ranjan A, Hughes L. Energy security and the diversity of energy flows in an energy system. Energy 2014;73:137–44. [7] Hughes L, de Jong M, Wang WQ. A generic method for analyzing the risks to energy systems. Appl. Energy 2016;180:895–908. [8] Friedrichs J. Peak energy and climate change: The double bind of post-normal science. Futures 2011;43(4):469–77. [9] Kucharski J, Unesaki H. A Policy-oriented Approach to Energy Security. Procedia Environ. Sci. 2015;28:27–36. [10] Molyneaux L, Brown C, Wagner L, Foster J. Measuring resilience in energy systems: Insights from a range of disciplines. Renew. Sustain.

Energy Rev. 2016;59:1068–79. [11] Panteli M, Mancarella P. Influence of extreme weather and climate change on the resilience of power systems: Impacts and possible

mitigation strategies. Electr. Power Syst. Res. 2015;127:259–70. [12] Sharifi A, Yamagata Y. Principles and criteria for assessing urban energy resilience: A literature review. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev.

2016;60:1654–77. [13] Hughes L. The effects of event occurrence and duration on resilience and adaptation in energy systems. Energy 2015;84:443–54. [14] Espinoza S, Panteli M, Mancarella P, Rudnick H. Multi-phase assessment and adaptation of power systems resilience to natural hazards.

Electr. Power Syst. Res. 2016;136:352–61. [15] Fang Y, Sansavini G. Optimizing power system investments and resilience against attacks. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 2017;159:161–73. [16] Sovacool BK, Geels FW. Further reflections on the temporality of energy transitions: A response to critics. Energy Res. Soc. Sci. 2016;22:232–7. [17] Chandramowli SN, Felder FA. Impact of climate change on electricity systems and markets - A review of models and forecasts. Sustain.

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