Subject: winter 2001 : a higher plane - cera alert
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - forwarded by lorna brennan / et & s / enron on 09 / 29 / 2000
04 : 47 pm - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
webmaster @ cera . com on 09 / 29 / 2000 04 : 42 : 45 pm
to : lorna . brennan @ enron . com
cc :
subject : winter 2001 : a higher plane - cera alert
cera alert : sent fri , september 29 , 2000
title : winter 2001 : a higher plane
author : moritzburke , snyder , zenker
e - mail category : alert
product line : western energy ,
url : http : / / www . cera . com / cfm / track / eprofile . cfm ? u = 5526 & m = 1378 ,
alternative url :
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * cooler temperatures
and lower energy demand in the west have driven daily power prices below $ 100
per megawatt hour ( mwh ) . the summer brought the region ' s strongest sustained
power and gas markets in recent history . for fall and winter , cera expects
western spot power and gas prices to be higher and more volatile than in past
years , with october on - peak power prices at $ 114  ) $ 143 per mwh and winter
prices around $ 74  ) $ 92 per mwh , depending on location . august ' s el paso
pipeline explosion intensified the summer ' s supply bottlenecks . although
service on the southern system was quickly restored , the supply disruption
affected storage inventories , with a heavy summer draw in california
weakening already dwindling inventories . for two weeks , pipeline capacity
limits on el paso ' s pipe into california pushed topock differentials to
nearly $ 2 . 00 per mmbtu , and the access constraint intensified downward
pressure on rocky mountain !
and san juan prices . the topock differential fell back last week after
averaging over $ 1 . 00 per mmbtu for most of september . the rush to inject
storage inventories ahead of heating season should limit further declines in
that differential .
* * end * *
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