An Event Risk Assessment
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EM-604Week-21.pdf
‘Try to love the questions themselves. . .’ —RAINER MARIA RILKE, FROM A LETTER TO FRANZ XAVER KAPPUS IN 1903
IN THIS CHAPTER, WE WILL EXPLORE:
• How to determine the event risk management data we choose to use
• Utilizing Gemba Kaizen in risk management
• How to conduct a preliminary risk assessment for an event
• Different types of crimes
• Event risk management packages
• Improving our listening skills
Risk assessment is as much about asking the right questions as it is about getting the right answers.
The old adage, “garbage in/garbage out”
This lecture examines many of the questions that need to be asked by professional event risk managers.
Critical Steps in Conducting Professional Event Risk Management
The critical steps in conducting professional event risk management require that you:
Ø Assess
Ø Plan
Ø Manage
Ø and control the risks for each event. (APMC)
v The professional event risk manager is responsible for ensuring that each of these steps is carefully completed.
v Professional event risk management further requires that you carefully and systematically evaluate the outcome of each event so that you can use this history (data) to make informed decisions regarding future events.
v The primary difference between the amateur event manager and the professional event manager is that the professional systematically completes each of these steps and concludes with a thorough evaluation of the processes and outcomes for each event.
For example, The fire and police departments of New York City were called to the scene of the World Trade Centre disaster, the leaders immediately began conducting a thorough assessment that included: • Triage of the injured individuals • Planning for the next steps (search and rescue) • Management of the scene (credentialing for security) • Control (by limiting access, providing safety equipment for the workers, and taking other steps to avert additional injuries or loss of life)
• Whether you are managing a small or large event, these four steps, APMC, are essential to ensure that you have addressed each and every possible risk factor associated with your event. Once you have completed APMC, you will, as did the New York City risk experts, carefully evaluate your processes and outcomes in order to improve your performance for the next time or perhaps to prevent a next time from occurring.
• To accomplish the above, we must decide what data we need and what the risks are.
• This leads to the eternal epistemological question: How do we know what it is that we know? In other words, a risk manager may have a lot of diverse facts, but without some format the facts are just facts.
To understand this concept better: let us examine the place where an “event” is to occur.
• It is the risk manager who must decide if the quantity of doors is important.
• The risk manager will examine the site for issues of security and safety.
• How many entrances/exits should the site have?
• How many entrances are too many?
• What is the relationship between the number of exits needed in case of fire and the
number of entrances needed as regards crowd control?
• If the quantity is important, then this piece of information becomes part of the
overall database; if the quantity is not important, then we are dealing with a non-
useful fact.
• Think how important this simple judgment call is at a major jewellery show,
computer show, or clothing show.
In order, then, to determine which facts are important, we must develop risk theories and scenarios. We will need to ask questions such as the following:
•How many people will be in attendance? In event risk management, size matters. Knowing how many people are attending an event establishes perimeters and forecasts staffing levels.
•What types of events take place in the venue? Take the time to study the history of the venue. If this is normally a venue for sports events, what special problems will a political event pose for you? What sports facilities can be converted and used for another purpose?
•What type of person will attend the event? Demographics tell us a lot about the type of risk that may be prevalent at this event. Will this event attract jewellery thieves? Are the attendees liable to become rambunctious or is this a group that has a low tolerance level for frustration? The more you know about the type(s) of person(s) you will have at the event, the easier it is to develop a risk plan.
•How frequently do events take place in a particular facility? Is the site used only occasionally for a special event or large gathering or is this a site that has employees who are event oriented? What event facilities, such as communications centers, does the site have?
Summary: • Part of the risk manager’s job, then, is to know the right questions to ask. • Determining the correct questions to ask may be one of the hardest parts of risk
management, yet the cost of asking the wrong questions can be enormous. • If the risk manager emphasizes the wrong data, he or she is liable to miss issues and to
cause a great deal of harm.
v Unfortunately, there is no one magic formula for knowing which facts are important for the event risk manager to transform into data.
v Following are some suggestions that will help you to decide. At the end of this chapter, you will find a listing of common methodological mistakes.
• Know who you are. It is essential that you are comfortable in your position of risk manager. What are your strengths and weaknesses? Are you a person who operates more according to rational thought or more through intuition?
• Know with whom you are dealing. What does (do) your supervisor(s) expect from you? What type of public are you serving? What are the public’s needs? What type of relation- ship do you have with local law enforcement agencies and fire departments?
• List your event risk management assumptions. We all make many more assumptions than we are willing to admit. From personal relationships to pure science, assumptions are made.
• Develop a methodology for data/information collection. How do you plan on getting the facts you need and how will you put these facts together in a logical system?
• Keep your paradigm options open. Are you doing things based on “we’ve always done them that way” or are you ignoring contradictory data simply because these data do not fit into your particular paradigm? If so, take the time to challenge your own assumptions and determine if you are engaging in circular reasoning.
• Don’t get stuck in a political quagmire. All too often, event risk managers get off base, simply because the politics of the situation make it impossible for them to work. Politics is the art of the possible; know what is possible and go there. Time your proposals and reports carefully.
Principles of Gemba Kaizen
• Much of this lecture examines decision-making theory.
• Despite what many people believe, few event risk managers have all or even most of the data needed to make informed decisions.
• Indeed, in a classical hierarchical system, those on top of the pyramid, that is to say, those who have the most power, often have the least knowledge.
The Japanese have tried to circumvent this system by use of what they call Gemba Kaizen. Gemba Kaizen is defined by Masaaki Imai as “being in the workplace; knowing what goes on at the point of production.” In event risk management, we do not produce a tangible product, but risk managers should also practice Gemba Kaizen.
For example, it would be hard to assess and control the risks of a celebrity wedding if the event risk manager did not attend the event.
Gemba Kaizen is a classical methodology that allows us to not get stuck in a routine that can lead to costly errors.
Gemba Kaizen’s eight steps include the following (Imai, 1997, p. xxvi):
1. Select a project.
2. Understand the current situation and objectives.
3. Analyse data to identify root causes.
4. Establish countermeasures.
5. Implement the countermeasures.
6. Confirm the effect.
7. Standardize.
8. Review.
Even in this system, which the Japanese developed for manufacturing purposes, choices must be made as to observation points.
The first set of questions that a risk manager must ask is:
• How does he or she receive information? • Is the information conveyed from direct observation, from empirical or factual
sources, or from intuitive sources?
A brief summary of the types of event risk information that can be gathered and examples of how it is used in event risk management.
DIRECT OBSERVATION
In normative research, this method is the most empirical of all. Routine inspections of an event site location, for example, may reveal potential risk. The operative word, however, is “potential.” All event risk is “potential.”
The event risk manager must rely on his or her own professional intuition from past events.
As long as the risk is in the future, it is only a mere hypothesis. Direct observation never answers the question “why,” but rather it seeks to answer questions such as those listed in Figure 2.1.
actualizes that risk (slips or falls) there is no way of knowing if the risk will become a danger. As long as the risk is in the future, it is only a mere hypothesis. Direct observation never answers the question “why,” but rather it seeks to answer questions such as those listed in Figure 2.1.
We might argue that waxing makes floors slippery. However, the fact that the floors are slippery might make people extra cau- tious. Thus, the waxed floors might also cut down on slippage. The risk might take place on the floor; however, the person may be so busy watching his or her step that he or she does not see the low ceiling and bumps into it. One might imagine that older peo- ple have a higher potential for slipping, but it may be children who slip due to the shiny floors inviting them to try and see if they can slide. In a like manner, the risk may at first be seen as a risk to a visitor’s health; nevertheless, the risk may also be to the build- ing or the economic well-being of the event.
DATA COLLECTION
Data collection is the most popular tool in decision making. Event risk managers should keep careful records. For example, who slipped and where, what was the age breakdown, and did men and women exhibit different patterns? No matter how good one’s data are, it is essential to remember that data reflect the past and never the future. There can be no future data, but rather we use data from past events to assume that, under similar circumstances, fu- ture events of a similar nature may occur. Of course, as the popu- lar television advertisement reminds people: Past performance is no guarantee of future action.
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1. Where might the event risk occur?
2. Under what circumstances would this event risk occur?
3. Who might be at the event?
4. What is the risk of conducting this event? High? Medium? Low?
Figure 2-1 How “X” Is a Risk
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INTUITIVE KNOWLEDGE/PAST EXPERIENCE
No matter how well the event risk manager observes the location, how well he or she analyses it, and how much data he or she collects, some facets of the event risk will be missing.
No one can observe everything, no one can collect all of the data needed, and even if such data collection were possible, there is always the potential to subdivide (analyse the data) by the wrong variables.
Event risk managers must make decisions, often based on past experience and personal intuition. This need to create an internal professional database is one principal reason risk managers should try to gather first-hand knowledge of the entire events management industry. It is this first-hand, hands-on experience that produces the base from which professional intuition grows. Performing routine tasks, then, helps event risk managers to develop the internal databases that are needed to make informed and intuitively correct decisions.
Assessing Event Risk One of the key ways by which event risk managers determine event risk is by conducting a preliminary assessment of the event’s location and venue. This assessment means that the event risk manager needs to determine who is at risk and where the risk will take place.
• What are the political and economic consequences of the risk actualizing itself? • Are there different consequences if a participant is hurt, an employee is hurt, and
property is damaged? • How much support is the administration willing to provide the risk management
team? • Does management understand all of the consequences of assuming a risk? • Risk can often be divided into four distinct groups, as shown in Figure 2.2.
Ø The convention industry is part of the visitor industry (also known as the travel and tourism industry), and, to a lesser extent, we may even say that weddings are part of that industry if the wedding brings in people from out of town.
Ø As such, the event risk manager’s number one issue must be the safety of his or her guests and employees.
Ø Material goods can be replaced, but lives cannot be replaced.
Ø To be effective in developing an event security risk management program, we first need to understand the challenge of security and safety.
Assessing Event Risk One of the key ways by which event risk managers determine event risk is by conducting a preliminary assessment of the event’s location and venue. This assessment means that the event risk manager needs to determine who is at risk and where the risk will take place. What are the political and economic consequences of the risk actualizing itself? Are there different consequences if a participant is hurt, an employee is hurt, and property is damaged? How much support is the administration willing to provide the risk management team? Does management understand all of the consequences of assuming a risk? Risk can often be divided into four distinct groups, as shown in Figure 2.2.
The convention industry is part of the visitor industry (also known as the travel and tourism industry), and, to a lesser extent, we may even say that weddings are part of that industry if the wedding brings in people from out of town. As such, the event risk manager’s number one issue must be the safety of his or her guests and employees. Material goods can be replaced, but lives cannot be replaced. To be effective in developing an event security risk management program, we first need to understand the challenge of security and safety.
38 Chapter 2 Risk Assessment
1. The probability of the risk occurring is highly probable and its consequences are minimal.
2. The probability of the risk occurring is minimally probable and its consequences are minimal.
3. The probability of the risk occurring is highly probable and its consequences are great.
4. The probability of the risk occurring is minimally probable and its consequences are great.
Figure 2-2 Risk Probabilities
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The events industry has more security and safety issues (rang- ing from food safety to acts of violence) than the average person realizes. Some of the acts of violence that may concern the risk manager are shown in Figure 2.3. Traditionally, event risk man- agement crimes of violence have been classified into one or more of three categories as shown in Figures 2.4 to 2.6.
Assessing Event Risk 39
! Workplace violence
! Violence against visitors (event attendees, conventioneers)
! Social disorders such as rowdiness from alcohol, drugs, or gangs
! Family violence
! Violence committed against property
Figure 2-3 Acts of Violence That Concern Event Risk Management
! Carjacking
! Drive-by shooting
! Kidnapping
! Mugging
! Murder
! Sexual assault
Note that acts of terrorism are included in this category.
Figure 2-4 Event Crimes of Violence
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The events industry has more security and safety issues (ranging from food safety to acts of violence) than the average person realizes. Some of the acts of violence that may concern the risk manager are shown in Figure 2.3. Traditionally, event risk management crimes of violence have been classified into one or more of three categories as shown in Figures 2.4 to 2.6.
The events industry has more security and safety issues (rang- ing from food safety to acts of violence) than the average person realizes. Some of the acts of violence that may concern the risk manager are shown in Figure 2.3. Traditionally, event risk man- agement crimes of violence have been classified into one or more of three categories as shown in Figures 2.4 to 2.6.
Assessing Event Risk 39
! Workplace violence
! Violence against visitors (event attendees, conventioneers)
! Social disorders such as rowdiness from alcohol, drugs, or gangs
! Family violence
! Violence committed against property
Figure 2-3 Acts of Violence That Concern Event Risk Management
! Carjacking
! Drive-by shooting
! Kidnapping
! Mugging
! Murder
! Sexual assault
Note that acts of terrorism are included in this category.
Figure 2-4 Event Crimes of Violence
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Planning for Event Stakeholder Security Physical security begins with planning. It is not economically fea- sible, or theoretically necessary, for installations and activities of every kind and character to achieve the same degree of protection. Due to monetary and personnel constraints, many sites will not be able to achieve maximum protection for the entire facility or ac- tivity at all times. It is essential that where cuts may need to be made that everything possible is considered to first protect lives and only then to protect physical property.
40 Chapter 2 Risk Assessment
! Auto theft
! “Con” games
! Property theft
! Pickpocketing/distraction
! Vandalism
Figure 2-5 Event Crimes of Opportunity and Nonviolent Crimes
! Drug purchases
! Illegal gambling
! Prostitution and public nudity
! Public disorderly conduct (e.g., intoxication)
Figure 2-6 Self-Victimizing Event Crimes
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Planning for Event Stakeholder Security Physical security begins with planning. It is not economically fea- sible, or theoretically necessary, for installations and activities of every kind and character to achieve the same degree of protection. Due to monetary and personnel constraints, many sites will not be able to achieve maximum protection for the entire facility or ac- tivity at all times. It is essential that where cuts may need to be made that everything possible is considered to first protect lives and only then to protect physical property.
40 Chapter 2 Risk Assessment
! Auto theft
! “Con” games
! Property theft
! Pickpocketing/distraction
! Vandalism
Figure 2-5 Event Crimes of Opportunity and Nonviolent Crimes
! Drug purchases
! Illegal gambling
! Prostitution and public nudity
! Public disorderly conduct (e.g., intoxication)
Figure 2-6 Self-Victimizing Event Crimes
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Planning for Event Stakeholder Security
Physical security begins with planning. It is essential that where cuts may need to be made that everything possible is considered to first protect lives and only then to protect physical property.
Mission Exercise The beginning of event risk management is “knowing your mission.” What do you, as an event risk manager, believe your mission to be?
For example, a mission statement might read: “The mission of the Festival Risk Management Division is to create a safe environment in which the guests are able to enjoy our festival in a peaceful, safe, and secure environment.”
Stages Risk management programs often have three stages. First, a program that desires to create a safe and visitor-friendly ambiance must offer good planning. This means that the program is organized for those unfortunate events with which we hope we never have to deal.
Second, employees should consider public awareness and participation. Are employees allies in avoiding risk or do they simply not notice?
Finally, you must implement employee and volunteer education and training. Does your program train others to work with you or is your department isolated and alone?
An event risk management department should consider a “park, walk, and talk” philosophy regarding security and crime prevention.
To begin to develop such a plan, think about the questions shown in Figure 2.7 and for each event seek answers that work for that scenario.
Mission Exercise The beginning of event risk management is “knowing your mis- sion.” What do you, as an event risk manager, believe your mis- sion to be? For example, a mission statement might read: “The mission of the Festival Risk Management Division is to create a safe environment in which the guests are able to enjoy our festi- val in a peaceful, safe, and secure environment.”
Stages Risk management programs often have three stages. First, a pro- gram that desires to create a safe and visitor-friendly ambiance must offer good planning. This means that the program is orga- nized for those unfortunate events with which we hope we never have to deal. Second, employees should consider public aware- ness and participation. Are employees allies in avoiding risk or do they simply not notice? Finally, you must implement employee and volunteer education and training. Does your program train others to work with you or is your department isolated and alone?
An event risk management department should consider a “park, walk, and talk” philosophy regarding security and crime preven- tion. Alternatives to standard patrols that might be considered are saturation or directed patrols and special-event units that utilize equipment such as bikes or horses. To begin to develop such a plan, think about the questions shown in Figure 2.7 and for each event seek answers that work for that scenario.
Stages 41
1. How would you define visitor activities at your event?
2. Where are the major risks to visitors at that specific event?
3. What are the major risks to the event site from outsiders?
Figure 2-7 Questions to Consider
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Publicity and Crime Reduction Publicity for your event comes in many forms: • Visual,
• Written, or oral;
• Formal or informal. Ø Publicity is the way that the events industry informs the public about an event:
what it has to offer, when it is open, and how much it costs.
• It is essential to remember that no risk is fixed in time: What may be an acceptable risk at one point in time may be unacceptable in another time frame.
• Risk is changeable and needs to be reviewed constantly.
• All event risk analyses should be based on the principle that there is no object, person, or reputation that cannot be stolen, damaged, or destroyed.
Event Stakeholder Risk Analyses
Because there are always costs involved, risk analyses are conducted to develop probability samples and determine how resources should best be utilized.
uEvent stakeholder analyses consist of a number of steps, including those shown in Figure 2.8. Then: u Conduct a hazards and vulnerability study (site survey) of personnel, facilities, items, and functions. u Conduct a probability of occurrence assessment. What are the chances that the risk will actually occur? u Establish a range of losses based on experience (3–5 year period). How much damage will the risk’s occurrence cause? u Compare the probability of occurrence with the risk of damage. Can you absorb the loss? What would happen if such a loss were to occur?
SUPPORT STRUCTURES
These are the facilities that supplement or make possible an event or convention delegate’s stay in an out-of-town location. They in- clude such items as places of lodging, eating establishments, trans- portation arteries, medical facilities, and basic city services such as firefighters and security professionals. At an event site, risk managers may want to examine such areas as the power/cool- ing/heating system, the visitor information center/booth, storage areas, the walls and fences around the site, and the roadways lead- ing up to the site or through the site.
The law enforcement/security professional community and our legal system traditionally have served as our social control process. However, at special events, some people exhibit low in- hibition levels and social control is harder to maintain. Event risk managers often have large geographic areas to patrol and this mix- ture of high visitor density plus wide-open spaces leads to the questions shown in Figure 2.9.
NATURAL THREATS
These are the consequence of natural phenomena such as a hurri- cane or earthquake. In the United States, these occurrences are seen as not preventable or, as they are called in the world of
Event Stakeholder Risk Analyses 43
Identification of Individuals, Items, Locales, and Functions in Terms of:
! Loss of life or bodily injury
! Total replacement
! Temporary replacement
! Unrecoverable costs
! Allied or related loss
Figure 2-8 Identifying Individuals, Items, Locales, and Functions
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SUPPORT STRUCTURES They include such items as places of lodging, eating establishments, transportation arteries, medical facilities, and basic city services such as firefighters and security professionals. At an event site, risk managers may want to examine such areas as the power/cooling/heating system, the visitor information centre/booth, storage areas, the walls and fences around the site, and the roadways leading up to the site or through the site. The law enforcement/security professional community and our legal system traditionally have served as our social control process. However, at special events, some people exhibit low inhibition levels and social control is harder to maintain.
Event risk managers often have large geographic areas to patrol and this mixture of high visitor density plus wide-open spaces leads to the questions shown in Figure 2.9.
insurance, acts of God. They may, nevertheless, greatly affect se- curity measures and are a major risk to the event. Europeans, on the other hand, argue that the results of such natural threats are foreseeable and therefore not acts of God. To make matters even more complicated, it is often very difficult to reschedule an event. Thousands of dollars may already be invested in the venue, air- line tickets, and/or speaker’s fees. The event’s organizers may take a very different approach to foreseeable natural phenomena, such as the prediction of a hurricane, than the risk management de- partment, thus causing a major political problem for the risk man- agement team.
The questions shown in Figure 2.10 should be posed as a key part of your event risk management assessment process.
HUMAN THREATS
These are traditionally those threats that are the result of a state of mind, attitude, weakness, or character trait. Some common human threats that event risk managers must assess, manage, or control
44 Chapter 2 Risk Assessment
! What type of equipment is best for a particular site and event? For example, heavy weapons might add extra security but could do more harm than good at a political rally.
! Does the threat of punishment act as a good deterrent in visitor situations?
! What impact might acts of terrorism have on the event’s management?
! What is the potential for site disruption, damage, loss or destruction of property, personal injury or loss of life?
! How secure is the information at your event both for the attendees and for the event management?
Figure 2-9 Patrol Questions
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NATURAL THREATS
These are the consequence of natural phenomena such as a hurricane or earthquake or, as they are called in the world of insurance, acts of God. Europeans, on the other hand, argue that the results of such natural threats are foreseeable and therefore not acts of God.
To make matters even more complicated, it is often very difficult to reschedule an event. Thousands of Riyals may already be invested in the venue, airline tickets, and/or speaker’s fees.
The event’s organizers may take a very different approach to foreseeable natural phenomena, such as the prediction of a hurricane, than the risk management department, thus causing a major political problem for the risk management team. The questions shown in Figure 2.10 should be posed as a key part of your event risk management assessment process.
are listed in Figure 2.11. Human threats have certain common characteristics, including those depicted in Figure 2.12.
While most event risk managers wish to achieve a perfect and absolute risk-free environment, the reality is that this goal is un- attainable. For this reason, event risk management departments concentrate on both prevention and protection. Most people who
Event Stakeholder Risk Analyses 45
! What are some of the natural threats to your event or meeting?
! Do you have a plan of action ready?
! How well are you coordinated with other agencies such as civil defense?
! What type of communications system would you use were your site to lose standard methods of communications?
! How would you handle the political problems involved? For example, the risk management team desires to cancel the event and the event’s organizers are willing to accept the risk.
Figure 2-10 Key Considerations Should a Natural Disaster Occur at Your Event
! Theft
! Bombings and acts of terrorism
! Pilferage
! Assaults, economic or sexual
! Carelessness and accidents in performance of duties
! Disaffection and disloyalty of staff
! Safety hazards from equipment Figure 2-11 Typical Human Threats at Events
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HUMAN THREATS These are traditionally those threats that are the result of a state of mind, attitude, weakness, or character trait. Some common human threats that event risk managers must assess, manage, or control are listed in Figure 2.11. Human threats have certain common characteristics, including those depicted in Figure 2.12.
are listed in Figure 2.11. Human threats have certain common characteristics, including those depicted in Figure 2.12.
While most event risk managers wish to achieve a perfect and absolute risk-free environment, the reality is that this goal is un- attainable. For this reason, event risk management departments concentrate on both prevention and protection. Most people who
Event Stakeholder Risk Analyses 45
! What are some of the natural threats to your event or meeting?
! Do you have a plan of action ready?
! How well are you coordinated with other agencies such as civil defense?
! What type of communications system would you use were your site to lose standard methods of communications?
! How would you handle the political problems involved? For example, the risk management team desires to cancel the event and the event’s organizers are willing to accept the risk.
Figure 2-10 Key Considerations Should a Natural Disaster Occur at Your Event
! Theft
! Bombings and acts of terrorism
! Pilferage
! Assaults, economic or sexual
! Carelessness and accidents in performance of duties
! Disaffection and disloyalty of staff
! Safety hazards from equipment Figure 2-11 Typical Human Threats at Events
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are listed in Figure 2.11. Human threats have certain common characteristics, including those depicted in Figure 2.12.
While most event risk managers wish to achieve a perfect and absolute risk-free environment, the reality is that this goal is un- attainable. For this reason, event risk management departments concentrate on both prevention and protection. Most people who
Event Stakeholder Risk Analyses 45
! What are some of the natural threats to your event or meeting?
! Do you have a plan of action ready?
! How well are you coordinated with other agencies such as civil defense?
! What type of communications system would you use were your site to lose standard methods of communications?
! How would you handle the political problems involved? For example, the risk management team desires to cancel the event and the event’s organizers are willing to accept the risk.
Figure 2-10 Key Considerations Should a Natural Disaster Occur at Your Event
! Theft
! Bombings and acts of terrorism
! Pilferage
! Assaults, economic or sexual
! Carelessness and accidents in performance of duties
! Disaffection and disloyalty of staff
! Safety hazards from equipment Figure 2-11 Typical Human Threats at Events
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commit crimes against event guests believe that the opportunity exists for that crime’s success. Event risk managers must always operate under the assumption that there is no object so well pro- tected that it cannot be stolen, damaged, or destroyed. There is nothing in this world that is 100 percent secure.
Event risk management should never be conducted in a vac- uum. It is a good idea for event risk managers to develop contacts with allied organizations such as local police and fire depart- ments, hospitals, and federal agencies. Figure 2.13 provides a guide to conducting the event risk management process.
Types of Crimes That Are Common Event Occurrences The following crimes may occur before, during, or after an event. You must assess your event’s vulnerability for each of these po- tential threats.
CRIMES OF DISTRACTION*
While crimes of distraction (CODs) are rarely noticed by the me- dia, the victims of CODs rarely forget their experiences. How you handle a COD can determine how a visitor will remember his or
46 Chapter 2 Risk Assessment
! They often involve acts of carelessness.
! They often can be prevented by thoughtful planning.
! A determined person will get through almost any risk management system.
! They often involve a sense of denial on the part of the event’s organizers.
Figure 2-12 Common Characteristics of Human Threats
*The author wants to recognize the lectures given by Ray Wood and Lothel Craw- ford for their ideas and inspiration found in this section.
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• While most event risk managers wish to achieve a perfect and absolute risk-free environment, the reality is that this goal is unattainable. For this reason, event risk management departments concentrate on both prevention and protection.
• Most people who commit crimes against event guests believe that the opportunity exists for that crime’s success. Event risk managers must always operate under the assumption that there is no object so well protected that it cannot be stolen, damaged, or destroyed. There is nothing in this world that is 100 percent secure.
• Event risk management should never be conducted in a vacuum. It is a good idea for event risk managers to develop contacts with allied organizations such as local police and fire departments, hospitals, and federal agencies. Figure 2.13 provides a guide to conducting the event risk management process.
1. Conduct a good security analysis of the event site both before and after the event. What are your weaknesses, where are you most vulnerable? Before the event, the risk manager attempts to locate risks and develop a plan to deal with these risks. The postinspection is the critique. After the event, the event risk manager should ask questions such as: What other risks were there? What was missed? What actions might have been taken?
2. Develop a good working relationship between local security professionals and the various components of the local tourism, hospitality, and events industry. Do they know you: the risk manager? Will local public safety agencies be of help? To whom can you, as the event risk manager, turn, should you need help. These are the political questions that can make a major difference in the success or failure of an event’s total risk management plan.
3. Make certain that all event stakeholders know who you are and for what each risk manager is responsible. The more other staff and volunteers understand your role and what you do, the better the chances that they will become willing team members in helping you to manage the risks at your event.
4. Develop security pamphlets/signs and other communications that explain to guests, staff, and volunteers key information as listed below and make sure that the signs are readable to all of those who are attending and working at the event. English language signs are not helpful if the attendee does not read English and you may prefer to use international graphical symbols.
4. ! Best evacuation routes to take 4. ! Exit signs 4. ! People and things to avoid 4. ! First-aid signs 4. ! Warning signs 4. ! Parking signs 4. ! Emergency access phones and numbers 4. ! Information kiosks
5. Develop a media plan to: 4. ! Increase safety and security awareness 4. ! Be prepared in case damage control is needed
6. Coordinate event risk management efforts with the local community as to: 4. ! Controlled hours and traffic flow 4. ! Advance notice of events 4. ! Consultation prior to event 4. ! Limitations and division of labor and resources 4. ! Policy vis à vis out-of-towners 4. ! Visitor information sources
Figure 2-13 Guide to Conducting the Event Risk Management Process
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Types of Crimes That Are Common Event Occurrences The following crimes may occur before, during, or after an event. You must assess your event’s vulnerability for each of these potential threats.
CRIMES OF DISTRACTION (CODs)
• While crimes of distraction (CODs) are rarely noticed by the media, the victims of CODs rarely forget their experiences.
• How you handle a COD can determine how a visitor will remember his or her visit to your event site. CODs are always remembered by the event’s participant, who often blames the experience on the risk management team rather than on his or her own mistakes.
• The category of COD includes such criminal activities as credit card fraud, pickpocketing, and “quick change-of-bags.”
• Although we will never be able to enter into the mind of an- other human being, research shows these common elements among the perpetrators of CODs.
• COD perpetrators often view their victims as suckers whose money should be separated from them with a minimum of difficulty.
• COD practitioners do not wish to deal directly with victims, but instead prefer to be invisible. They tend to seek an immediate escape and feel no remorse at hurting an- other person.
• COD practitioners assume that getting caught is part of the “price” of doing business.
Following are several examples of common COD techniques. It should be noted that COD practitioners study their art, just as any other professional, and are continuously updating their skills and techniques.
• Coat over arm. In this case, the perpetrator uses the coat as a means to take a purse and then hide it.
• Ketchup bandits. Something such as ketchup is spilled on the victim and then while one person is cleaning the victim up, his “colleague” steals the victim’s wallet or purse.
• Luggage/bag removal. This is common where bags are held while an event is in progress. It can take place either by the perpetrator insisting that he or she has lost a receipt or when one person creates confusion while his or her partner walks off with the luggage.
• Rest room thefts. These are common in places where a man hangs up his jacket or a woman her purse on the back side of a lavatory door. Men’s wallets have even been stolen while the victim was using the toilet.
Pickpocketing Pickpocketing is the number one form of COD. Event risk management departments are often unaware of the extent of this problem because many guests fail to report such crimes. Figure 2.14 lists several techniques to help guests reduce the incidence of pickpocketing.
Credit Card Theft Credit card theft is another serious problem at events. The goal is to take credit cards and utilize them as quickly as possible. Credit card theft can become a problem, especially where there are booths selling souvenirs or at local stores that earn their money from ma- jor event participants. The event risk manager can use the recom- mendations in Figure 2.15 to reduce credit card theft.
Reviewing Packages Events may be places where “terrorists” may choose to make a statement, and for this reason a large number of places around the world review packages prior to allowing ingress into event venues.
Reviewing Packages 49
Always Remind Visitors To:
! Use handbags with zippers and locking flaps
! Carry handbags securely with the flap close to the body
! Never carry wallets in back pockets
! Watch out for unnecessary “bumps,” especially in markets and other places where there are crowds, such as at long lines or major banquets
! Never leave valuables unguarded or trust a stranger to watch valuables
! Be on guard if a stranger tells you have a spill on your clothing or spills something on you
! Watch out for strangers at ATMs or credit card machines who state that money has been dropped—on the whole, indoor ATMs may be safer
! Watch for people loitering
! Never loan money to someone who claims to work for the event
Figure 2-14 Theft and Pickpocket Reduction Techniques
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Credit Card Theft Credit card theft is another serious problem at events. The goal is to take credit cards and utilize them as quickly as possible. Credit card theft can become a problem, especially where there are booths selling souvenirs or at local stores that earn their money from major event participants. The event risk manager can use the recommendations in Figure 2.15 to reduce credit card theft.
While bombs and other incendiary devices can be disguised in nu- merous types of packaging, the following discussion may act as a guide to help the risk manager deal with extraneous packages, bags, and so on. Such package reviews often cause a great deal of consternation, possible embarrassment, and additional time man- agement problems for guests and participants. Figure 2.16 provides event risk managers with a number of ways to handle this problem.
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! Encourage visitors to keep credit cards protected.
! Encourage event sellers and concessionaires to check signatures on credit cards. The signature on the card should look like the signature on the sales slip. Both signatures should look the same!
! Look for unusual behavior. If the person seems overly nervous and/or is making a strange set of purchases (e.g., many of the same item), this may be a sign of fraud. Another sign may be purchases made without regard to size, quantity, or color.
! Encourage event personnel to seek a second form of picture identification prior to selling merchandise by means of a credit card.
! Check the expiration date. Is the card still valid?
! Ask to see a passport and check the passport’s seal and the individual’s photo when dealing with foreign credit cards. Handwritten passports ought to be regarded with a tremendous amount of suspicion.
! Be wary of customers who are unnecessarily talkative or who delay a selection until the salesclerk becomes upset.
! Be wary of a person who hurries the salesperson just as it is time to quit for the day.
! Be wary of a person who takes a credit card from a pocket rather than from a wallet or purse.
! Be wary of a person who does not carry a driver’s license or does not have a photo identification card.
Figure 2-15 Event Credit Card Theft Prevention Recommendations
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Reviewing Packages Events may be places where “terrorists” may choose to make a statement, and for this reason a large number of places around the world review packages prior to allowing ingress into event venues. While bombs and other incendiary devices can be disguised in numerous types of packaging, the following discussion may act as a guide to help the risk manager deal with extraneous packages, bags, and so on. Such package reviews often cause a great deal of consternation, possible embarrassment, and additional time management problems for guests and participants. Figure 2.16 provides event risk managers with a number of ways to handle this problem.
Event risk managers must always consider both local laws and cus- toms and so should modify these guidelines accordingly.
There can also be a significant amount of risk to the people conducting the package reviews. Make sure that these people are trained in package review and in anger management. Prepare writ- ten instructions and guidelines to remind package reviewers of the following:
! Do not put your hands into a package blindly; you do not know what needles or other dangerous objects may be there.
! Place the contents of a package onto a tray, then in plain sight look at the contents.
! Allow the person whose package is being inspected to return the contents to the package.
! Test cameras and beepers. Take a photo or turn the beeper on. ! Use common sense. If in doubt, do not admit the article in
question into the venue. ! Smile! If a person becomes angry, smiles and agreements that
these inspections are a hassle is the best policy. Let the visi- tor know that you are on his or her side and that you are do- ing this procedure for his or her protection.
Reviewing Packages 51
! Post signs clearly announcing package reviews. Make sure that guests and participants understand that packages are to be reviewed at the time of ticket purchase or prior to entering an event venue.
! Encourage attendees to store packages away from the event venue or to leave these items with trusted people not attending the event.
! Act sensibly and sensitively. Event participants are not criminals. If a person chooses not to be searched, that person should be allowed to leave. Do not immediately assume that a refusal to have a bag examined means that the person is dangerous.
! Offer alternatives, be polite, but do not give in to pressure. If the person refuses to allow the search, explain that the examinations are the policy of the event management and that people who do not wish to have their bags searched can either lock their bags at another place or not enter the venue.
Figure 2-16 Guidelines for Event Package Reviews
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• Event risk managers must always consider both local laws and customs and so should modify these guidelines accordingly.
• There can also be a significant amount of risk to the people conducting the package reviews.
• Make sure that these people are trained in package review and in anger management.
Prepare written instructions and guidelines to remind package reviewers of the following: • Do not put your hands into a package blindly; you do not know what
needles or other dangerous objects may be there. • Place the contents of a package onto a tray, then in plain sight look at the contents. • Allow the person whose package is being inspected to return the contents to the package. • Test cameras and beepers. •Take a photo or turn the beeper on. • Use common sense. If in doubt, do not admit the article in question into the venue. • Smile! If a person becomes angry, smiles and agreements that these inspections are a hassle is the best policy. • Let the visitor know that you are on his or her side and that you are doing this procedure for his or her protection.
Decision Making How you reach these decisions can have major consequences for your event. Event risk managers are human and, as such, also make mistakes. Following are some of the most common methodological mistakes that event risk managers commit: • Inaccurate observations. Event risk managers must always remember that seeing is
not always believing. Often, what appears to be safe may not be safe at all. In a like manner, there are many people who are experts in deception. Seeing should be understood as one way to gather data, but never the only way.
• Overgeneralizations. It is easy to assume that all children are at risk, that all females are helpless, and so forth. These are dangerous overgeneralizations. For example, the female may be a karate expert or a homicide bomber, while the sexual assailant may be desirous of assaulting a man rather than a woman.
• Selective observation. Event risk managers may be so convinced that they must deal with an alcohol problem that they may fail to note other potential problems along the way. The problem may be not just alcohol but also drugs and/or sexual assault.
• Inventing information. All people have a habit of creating in- formation. In fact, as any good lawyer knows, honest people may hear and see events from totally different perspectives. The mind often plays tricks on observers and providers of information. Risk managers can never accept a story at face value. Instead, they must investigate it and use good common sense. The difficulty arises when time is of the essence for your event.
• Illogical reasoning/lack of alternative assumptions. Mistakes are often made simply because we get stuck in one set of assumptions. The cash box may have been stolen by the local carnival troupe down the street, but perhaps it was not stolen at all but merely misplaced and the location forgotten. Often, we assume too much. In the area of event risk management, too many faulty assumptions can lead to major errors in judgment.
• Ego involvement. Risk managers need to be able to say, “I don’t know.” When we assume that we have a monopoly on good judgment, truth, and information, we place ourselves and those for whom we are working at risk.
• Premature closing of inquiry. We can easily overlook an issue because we are too tired or too sure of ourselves. We are often stuck in a specific paradigm, so we simply do not see the obvious or we forget to ask the next set of questions. Because something was successful, dangerous, or not dangerous in the past does not mean that it cannot be so in the future.
• Mystification. This is the way that all of us deal with issues such as luck. There is a certain amount of luck that can make the difference between success and failure, but it is a mistake to confuse good luck with good planning. Many airline crashes are avoided by good luck, but chaos theory would argue that our luck can only last for so long.
• Not recognizing that we make errors. All people make mistakes: Reports get mislaid, light switches get turned off by accident, and doors are not locked that should have been locked. The issue is not necessarily that mistakes happen, but rather how we plan for their happening. Do we have a backup plan for when they do occur and what is our recovery plan?
Listening and Communication Skills • One of the most important methodologies in developing data for risk management is
precise listening skills.
• We often hear what we want to hear, or, due to distractions, busy lives, and so on, simply do not hear what we need to hear.
• Learning to listen may be one of the hardest things we do and most of us rarely do it very well. Figure 2.17 provides several tools to help improve your listening and communication skills.
GENERAL SKILLS • Most feelings are combinations of five basic feelings (similar to the primary colours).
• When listening, see if you can find one or more of the following basic feelings and then determine how the speaker is expressing it (them).
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In Event Face-to-Face Communication:
! Look at the other person directly. It is essential that you face the person who is speaking to you. Not only does this let the other party know that you care, but it also provides you with insights into the person’s body language.
! Adopt an open posture. Many of the people with whom you may come in contact are of a psychographic nature. When dealing with these people, it is essential that they think you care about them and that you are willing to help.
! Lean slightly toward the other person. When we lean toward someone, our body language says “I am taking what you say seriously.” The better the rapport, the better the information.
! Maintain good eye contact. There is a wealth of information to be gained from someone’s eyes. The better the eye contact, the more people are willing to share information.
! Try to be in a relaxed position. You are the professional. The last thing that you can afford is for the other person to think you are nervous.
In Asking Good Questions:
! Use concrete speech. Avoid words like “things” and “feel.” Ask questions such as: When did the event happen? What was the man’s name? The pronoun “they” refers to a plural, not a singular. Using “he” and “she” can reveal important information.
! Do not be vague. What does an “old man” mean? Is old 20, 30, 40, 70, or 80 years of age? Get the facts.
! Listen for themes and subtexts. If the person is telling you about a food problem but there is always a stranger in the story, are you getting a message that is different from what the initial story may have been?
! Listen for feelings. Is the person telling you that he or she is afraid? Is there a control issue that is not being stated? Is anger being expressed in the guise of love? For example, “I would not tell you this but I care about Joe. . . .”
Figure 2-17 Improving Your Listening and Communication Skills
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• Anger. Many people in the United States are often afraid to express anger. Instead it manifests itself in passive aggressive behaviour, for example, agreeing to do something and then not doing it. Anger can make your work a lot harder and mislead you when you are trying to collect information.
• Fear. Fear is a major element in event risk management. Risk is a form of fear of the future. In small doses, it can lead to a well-though-tout plan; too much fear, however, can paralyse the event and lead to overreactions.
• Sadness. Sadness is a normal part of life. When organizing most events, sadness is an emotion that most event risk managers try to avoid. Sadness is one of those emotions that leads people to let their guard down and to be open to a high degree of risk.
• Joy/happiness. This is the emotion that most event risk managers’ supervisors and clients want to create. Your job is to do the risk management work so that others can experience joy with the least possible risk. However, as every event guest knows, joy often is accompanied by tragedy.
• Love. This is one of the hardest emotions for an event risk manager. Love can create all sorts of strange problems. For example, family disputes are dangerous because they often mix passion, love, and anger. The love emotion may also mean that important information may be withheld from the event risk manager.
Figure 2.18 shows the relationship between the five senses and the verbs that express these senses.
stakeholders. The better your communication skills, the more com- prehensively you will be able to assess the risks at your events.
To improve your listening and communication skills, practice this exercise. Take the sentence, “I don’t think you should produce this event because. . . .” As you complete this sentence, carefully distinguish between the feelings and the content of the message. Then, to further progress in your abilities, make certain that you:
! Avoid responses that imply condescension or manipulation. ! Avoid giving premature advice. ! Do not give a negative response. ! Do not patronize or placate. ! Avoid clichés. ! Ask closed and specific questions.
HEARING BODY LANGUAGE
When people are given a choice between visual body language and oral communication for meaning, most people will choose body language. To improve your communication skills, you should:
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Sense Verbs/Expressions
Sight See, look, be lucid, be foggy, clear things up
Hearing Pay attention, sounds . . . , gossip
Touch Dig, handle, get a hold of, be easy to deal with, push people around
Smell Sniff, be rotten, smell like
Taste Be nasty, sweet, sour, on tip of tongue
Figure 2-18 Sensory Relationship Words for Event Risk Management
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To improve your listening and communication skills, practice this exercise. Take the sentence, “I don’t think you should produce this event because. . . .” As you complete this sentence, carefully distinguish between the feelings and the content of the message. Then, to further progress in your abilities, make certain that you:
• Avoid responses that imply condescension or manipulation. • Avoid giving premature advice. • Do not give a negative response. • Do not patronize or placate. • Avoid clichés. • Ask closed and specific questions.
HEARING BODY LANGUAGE When people are given a choice between visual body language and oral communication for meaning, most people will choose body language.
To improve your communication skills, you should:
• Keep your voice low and steady and know that your voice really does sound like the one you hear on the tape recorder.
• Listen to a tape or compact disc (CD) of a person whose voice you admire. • Listen to your voice for signs of stress: higher or lower than • normal pitch or faster or slower than normal speed. • Review your mannerisms to determine what is and is not pleasing.
INTERPRETING BODY LANGUAGE
An effective event risk manager must be able to interpret body language. You can accomplish this task by paying attention to:
• Person’s use of space • Person’s posture • Person’s seeking of privacy, through silence or lack of • expression
A smile is not always the same smile. There are various forms of smiles. Which other smiles can you recognize?
• Knowing smiles • Forgiving smiles • Presenting smiles
As you watch for body language, you must be able to analyse carefully the hidden messages that are transmitted through looks, posture, smiles, and gestures. When listening for body language make certain you:
• Do not appear to be defensive. • Connect with the other person; try to see things from his or her side. • Apologize and do not argue if you have made a mistake. • Do not take things personally; when necessary, quote an event policy or rule in a
neutral manner.
The preceding discussion on interpreting body language was adapted from the book Body Language by Julius Fast (1971).
There are three ways we communicate with event stakeholders: through words, through body language, and through the tones and loudness of our voices.
If the total message we transmit or receive is 100 percent, then about 7% is through words, about 38% is through tones, and about 55% is through body language. Therefore, over 90% of our ability to communicate is through our ability to use and interpret body language, speech tones, and vocal cues.
JUDGING BEHAVIOR: MALES VERSUS FEMALES
It is essential that when we listen we try to be as gender neutral as possible. Figure 2.19 shows some of the prejudices under which many females have been, and often still are, forced to labour. This figure demonstrates how a person with sexual bias often unfairly reframes a statement made by a male when the same statement is made by a female.
Males Females
In business we call men enterprising. In business we call the same action when done by women pushy.
When men are contemplative, we view When women are contemplative, they them as thoughtful. are often called overly choosy.
A man who finishes a task is praised for When a woman finishes a task, some his follow-through. men say she does not know when to
quit.
If a man holds on to a position, he is When a woman refuses to budge, she is seen as steadfast in his beliefs. often call stubborn.
When a man has many intimate In the same situation, women suffer relations, he is often called “worldly.” from a double standard and often people
say that they have “been around.”
Men who say what they think are Women who say what they think are considered to be honest and forthright. often unfairly called opinionated.
Men in positions of power are expected Women in positions of power are often to exercise authority. called tyrannical when they exercise
their authority.
We call men who know how to be When women choose not to speak, they quiet discreet. are called secretive and when they do
speak are called gossips.
Society honors tough-minded men and When a woman is tough-minded, she is calls them stern taskmasters. often called difficult.
Figure 2-19 Are You Guilty of Male and Female Stereotypes? (Source: Deborah Tannen.)
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Read carefully the statements in the figure and then think of other unfair situations in which you may have judged someone not for what that person said or did, but merely because of the person’s gender, religion, ethnic background, sexual identity, or race.
Effective event risk management must avoid bias when communicating with stakeholders. The more open you are to communication with others, the more effective you will be in collecting the information you need to make informed decisions regarding event risk management.
Event Risk Management Key Terms
Decision-making theory: A set of principles that explains how we make or do not make decisions.
Foreseeable natural phenomena: Another term for acts of God. It implies that humans are responsible for natural calamities due to lack of good risk management.
Gemba Kaizen: Being in the workplace; knowing what goes on at the point of production.
Hazards and vulnerability study: An assessment of the physical site for an event, what can go wrong, where the risks are found.
Human threats: Traditionally, those threats that are the result of a state of mind, attitude, weakness, or character trait.
Probability of occurrence assessment: An attempt to decide if there is (1) low chance of occurrence and low consequences, (2) low chance of occurrence and high consequences, (3) high chance of occurrence and low consequences, or (4) high chance of occurrence and high consequences.
Event Risk Management Drills 1. How would you incorporate listening skills into your collection of data for a festival? How might different people state problems each in their own way? What information might not be said? How might body language help in determining the types of questions that you might want to ask? How would your process differ if the event were a trade show?
2. You have been asked to turn a sports arena with seating for 5,000 spectators into an exhibit hall. What are some of the types of information that you would need to know? What questions would you ask? What would be some of the event risk management challenges that you would face?
3. You have been asked for the first time to manage a large business meeting. The corporate executives will attend, and if they like the way you organize the event, there will be some great recommendations. Review the principles of Gemba Kaizen and explain how these principles might help you. How would this methodology help you to conduct a hazards and vulnerability study (site survey) of personnel, facilities, items, and functions, as well as a probability of occurrence assessment?
Thank You!
Any Question?
