EECS4460.92.8.211.pptx
Power System Management
EECS 4460/5460-901
Lecture #9
Power Generation Alternatives
1
Solar Generation – PV Cells
Basic Idea: Convert light
energy from the sun
into Electric Energy
The Photovoltaic Effect
(NOT: Passive Solar, Solar Water Heating, Solar Process Heat)
Solar Cell Characteristics
Solar Cell Characteristics
Solar Cell Characteristics
Solar Cell Efficiency Improvements
Crystalline Silicon Panels Dominate the Market
Solar PV Modules – A Global Market
U.S. Imports 94% of its panels
8
Solar Integration via Inverters
Solar Thermal Plants
Collect and concentrate sunlight to produce high temperature
heat for boiler/turbine/generator
Linear Concentrating Systems use long rectangular curved mirrors
to focus sunlight on receivers with fluid in tubes
280Mw Mojave Desert CA, 280Mw Gila Bend AZ,250Mw Blythe CA
Solar Power Tower uses large flat sun-tracking mirrors to concentrate
sunlight onto receiver at top of tower
392Mw Ivanpath Dry Lake CA, 110Mw Crescent Dunes NV
Solar Power Tower
Solar Resources in the U.S.
Solar Facilities
Generally defined as >1000KWe (1MWe); most are 1-5 Mw
Utility Scale: 76M Kwhrs in 2008 to 72B in 2019
Small Scale: Small scale grid connected has grown from 11B
Kwhr in 2014 to 35B in 2019
2019: Solar accounted for 1.7% of the utility scale generation
Utility-Scale Solar
Solar Generation Summary
Advantages:
Renewable resource
No carbon emissions
Domestic fuel source (?)
Low operating cost
Inverter performance
Disadvantages:
Intermittent source
Environmental impact
on the land use: mining,
and plant
High capital cost
Visual “pollution”
Inverter performance
Biomass Generation
Burning wood carbon neutral?
Wood derived – pulp byproducts
Waste to Energy
Paper, wood, yard waste, food, rubber
Advanced Coal
Ultrasupercritical
Carbon Capture and Sequestration
Circulating Fluidized Bed (CFB)
Coal Gasification
Advanced Nuclear
DOE “GAIN” Program
Small Modular Reactors
Advanced Generation Technologies
Waste to Energy Generation
Carbon Capture Simplified
Entering “Generation IV” of Nuclear Power
19
Small Modular Reactors
Perspective on SMR’s
SMR’s are <300Mw; modular construction
Passive design, improved simplicity and security
60 designs under development
Strong international support
Small Modular Reactor Update
22
The Obligation to Serve
Includes the responsibility to have sufficient generation resources to meet customer needs
Elements of this Obligation
Load forecast assumptions
Lead time to build, if needed
Agreements for others to provide resources
Cost: “The Least Cost Plan”
Measures of Reliability
Operating Reserve Requirements (Day-to-Day)
Planning Reliability Criteria of Reserve Margin
Generation to Meet the Load
Reserve Margin
=
Capacity – Peak Load
Peak Load
Expressed as a Percentage
Historically, an “acceptable” LOLP has been loss of firm load one day in ten years
While it is system specific, a LOLP of one day in ten years generally correlates to a Reserve Margin of 20%
“Acceptable” Reserve Margins vary by system and region and are part of the State Regulatory process in many states.
Correlation between Reserve Margin and Loss of Load
Loss-of-Load Probability (LOLP) This is defined as the probability of system daily peak or hourly demand exceeding the available generating capacity during a given period. The probability can be calculated either using only the daily peak loads (or daily peak variation curve) or all the hourly loads (or the load duration curve) in a given study period.
Generation Resource Adequacy “Conventional Wisdom”
Provide Sufficient Resources to meet 20% Reserve Margin over the Peak Load
Continue to Improve Efficiency and Lower Costs –
Advance Technologies to do so.
Provide Fuel Security and Diversity
Build Transmission necessary to support reliability
Operate the System Economically and Reliably
Include Operating Reserves
Dispatch Units based on Costs and Heat Rate
Summer 2020 Reserve Margin Assessment
Resource adequacy tools are being developed in various regions of the country to improve the methodologies for assuring adequate resource reliability
New tools utilize both deterministic and probabilistic approaches
An example is the GRAF (Generation Resource Adequacy Tool) in the Western Interconnection
Localized reliability challenges remain
Reserve Margin Observations
Loss-of-Load Probability (LOLP) is still the appropriate measure for reliability - defined as the probability of system daily peak or hourly demand exceeding the available generating capacity during a given period.
California Outages in August……
Unusually hot weather, high demand
Some unplanned plant outages
Perspectives:
Peak Load occurs when renewables are less available
Thermal resources needed to meet peak, typically natural gas
California ISO relies on imports to meet peak demands
Factors Impacting California “Rolling Blackouts” (Loss of Firm Load)
The CAISO Geography
And …smoke from the fires reduced solar generation
August 14 CAISO Supply
Our Appetite for Electricity “Marches On”
Annual U.S. Electricity Consumption 1950-2040
Projected
KWH
(billions)
Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2015
Location • Date
33
Total electricity demand increases by 22 percent by 2040
Electricity demand increases in response to population growth and economic growth and fluctuates in the short term in response to business cycles and weather trends
Over the long term, electricity demand growth has slowed progressively in each decade since the 1950s
Electricity use boomed in the 50s, when technological advances led to household products that offered increased efficiency and labor-saving features
Sales of televisions and other home appliances skyrocketed
Slower growth continues as increased demand for electricity is offset by efficiency gains from new appliance efficiency standards and investment in energy-efficient equipment
Largest percentage increase is in the commercial sector, with service industries continuing to lead the growth
Electricity: Bringing Good Energy to Everyday Life
Historical Build…Capacity by Initial Year of Operation and Fuel Type
Electricity Demand Growth Remains Modest
2021Long Term Forecast: Overall Renewable Generation Doubles by 2020
Renewable Generation Growth
Overall, (non-hydro) Renewable Generation in 2019 was 440B Kwhr, or 10.6% of the total (4.1 Trillion Kwhr)
Forecast Variability: Fossil Fuels
Power Generation Alternatives
Generation Costs
Alternatives and Decision Making
Next Lecture(s)
Chart1
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Sheet1
| KWH (Billions) | |
| 1950 | 291 |
| 1951 | 300 |
| 1955 | 497 |
| 1960 | 688 |
| 1965 | 954 |
| 1970 | 1392 |
| 1971 | 1470 |
| 1972 | 1595 |
| 1973 | 1713 |
| 1974 | 1706 |
| 1975 | 1747 |
| 1976 | 1855 |
| 1977 | 1948 |
| 1978 | 2018 |
| 1979 | 2071 |
| 1980 | 2094 |
| 1981 | 2147 |
| 1982 | 2086 |
| 1983 | 2151 |
| 1984 | 2286 |
| 1985 | 2324 |
| 1986 | 2369 |
| 1987 | 2457 |
| 1988 | 2578 |
| 1989 | 2756 |
| 1990 | 2837 |
| 1991 | 2886 |
| 1992 | 2897 |
| 1993 | 3001 |
| 1994 | 3081 |
| 1995 | 3164 |
| 1996 | 3254 |
| 1997 | 3302 |
| 1998 | 3425 |
| 1999 | 3484 |
| 2000 | 3592 |
| 2001 | 3557 |
| 2002 | 3632 |
| 2003 | 3662 |
| 2004 | 3716 |
| 2005 | 3811 |
| 2006 | 3817 |
| 2007 | 3890 |
| 2008 | 3865 |
| 2009 | 3724 |
| 2010 | 3886 |
| 2011 | 3900 |
| 2012 | 3950 |
| 2013 | 3836 |
| 2014 | 3867 |
| 2015 | 3800 |
| 2016 | 3850 |
| 2017 | 3850 |
| 2018 | 3992 |
| 2019 | 4024 |
| 2020 | 4056 |
| 2021 | 4088 |
| 2022 | 4121 |
| 2023 | 4154 |
| 2024 | 4187 |
| 2025 | 4220 |
| 2026 | 4254 |
| 2027 | 4288 |
| 2028 | 4322 |
| 2029 | 4357 |
| 2030 | 4392 |
| 2031 | 4427 |
| 2032 | 4462 |
| 2033 | 4498 |
| 2034 | 4534 |
| 2035 | 4570 |
| 2036 | 4607 |
| 2037 | 4644 |
| 2038 | 4681 |
| 2039 | 4718 |
| 2040 | 4756 |
Sheet2
Sheet3
05001000150020002500300035004000450050001950197019751980198519901995200020052010201520202025203020352040
