EECS4460.2411.25.19.pptx
Power System Management
EECS 4460/5460-901
Lecture #24
International Power Systems
1
Recap: Global Growth by Fuel Source
2016 Outlook
2
Recap: Carbon Emissions are Increasing
Policy: Countries are Implementing Carbon Pricing
Several design options with carbon pricing
Emissions Trading Systems (ETS), “cap and trade” total emissions and allows trading of emissions under the cap
Market-based approaches
Carbon tax - direct tax on carbon content of fuels
Indirect methods – fuel taxes
Increasing in utilization
As of April 2019, 46 countries and 28 subnational jurisdictions have carbon pricing schemes; most of Canada; and California
Pricing schemes cover about 13% of the global greenhouse gas emissions
Pricing can have significant impact
Carbon Pricing Leadership Coalition (CLPC) Annual Assembly in Spring 2019
Banks considering a “shadow pricing” for investments
Support for $40/ton price range (“Stern-Stiglitz Report”)
Carbon Pricing
Carbon Pricing Simplified*
Some Facts:
In 2017, Ohio fossil power plants generated 77.4 Million Metric Tons (MMT) of CO2
It was 117.4 MMT in 1997
In 2017, the transportation sector generated 63.3 MMT
In 1997, it generated 65.8 MMT
Conclusion: Progress on power plants, less with transportation
Note: One Metric Ton = 1.102 Tons
Let’s Assume:
A simple carbon tax is applied per ton of emissions
A carbon price of $40/ton
Thus:
The 2017 carbon “cost” from the plants is 77.40x1.102x40 = $3.41 Billion
The “cost” for the transportation sector is 63.3x1.102x40 = $2.79 Billion
*Data from EPA State Emissions Report released Summer 2019
Potential Carbon Pricing Impact 2013 Report (U.S.)
Potential Carbon Pricing Impact 2013 Report (U.S.)
Growth in generation*: Renewables and Natural Gas
Significant Global Renewable Growth to Date
Projection: Renewables will Provide Nearly Half of the World’s Electricity by 2050
Wind and Solar Dominate Renewable Growth*
Policy makers are driving the change
168 countries have renewable energy targets
121 countries have a tariff system, green certificates or auctions in place for renewable generation
88 of those countries are using the auction approach
Technology is catching up
Manufacturing costs are coming down
Efficiency, especially solar, is improving
Operating challenges have emerged
Alternatives for carbon-free electricity are a challenge
Carbon capture is “work in progress”
Nuclear and hydro power have mixed support
Global Renewable Generation is Policy Driven
IEA Projects Significant Asian Growth
14
India has 364 GW of installed capacity as of 10/31/19
Electricity consumption has doubled in the past 13 years (1181 KWhr per capita in 2018)
Coal is 54% of the generation mix – coal is imported
Nuclear is 2%, targeting to grow by five times by 2032
Hydro limited by high capital costs and droughts
Solar has 70,000Mw under construction, but land use is large debate – average of 4-5 acres per MW
India and Electricity
15
India Infrastructure Challenges
Overcoming inefficiency and theft
A Healthy Solar Footprint
Also:
Local diesel generators @80 BKWhr
Intermittent supply
Fuel supply constraints
Resistance to hydro, nuclear
Resistance to energy efficiency
Electricity consumption has grown:
2000: 1,014 BKwhr 2018: 6,840 BKwhr
Averaging a 10% annual increase in generating capacity since 2010
70% has been built in the last ten years
72% of the China’s Generation is coal @ 993Gw
Government “ceiling” on coal 1100Gw by 2020
China and Electricity
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China Electricity Growth 1980-2014
18
China Projects* Greater Fuel Diversity
19
Nuclear: Global Forecast: +73% by 2040
20
Current Global Nuclear Growth*
Currently 451 Operating Reactors Worldwide
U.S – 98 France -58 Japan – 39
China – 46 Russia – 36 S. Korea -24
India – 22 Canada – 19 Ukraine -15
2018 Worldwide Nuclear Generation:
2.6 Trillion KWHr (11.5% of the Total)
2040 Forecast: 4.5Trillion KWHr
Global electricity consumption grew 3.5% in 2018
Globally, 100+ reactors under construction
Note: 31 Reactors in China
*Nov. 2019 Update
21
A Shift in Asian Nuclear Production
22
Nuclear Growth Dominated by China
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46 Operating Reactors as of November 2019
(10.8% of the World’s Nuclear Capacity)
New in-service:
Seven new units brought online in 2018
Including Sanmaen 1 AP1000 and Taishan 1 EPR
June 2019: (Taishan 2 1600MW and Yangjiang 6 1000MW)
Developing New Technologies:
Fast Neutron Reactor (FNR) (600MW) under construction in Fujian
HTR Pebble Bed Modular prototype (10MW) is operational
Two 250MW HTR designs under construction
China building reactors in Argentina and Pakistan
Agreements with eight other countries to build
Update on China Nuclear
24
Middle East Nuclear Capacity Forecast (March 2018)
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Electricity in the UAE:
Growth – 19BKwhr in 2000 to 113 BKwhr today
99% Fossil Generation
Gas Reserves: 6th in the world
Oil Reserves: 8th in the world
“Energy Strategy 2050”
Clean Energy includes nuclear and renewables
Barakah – 4xAPR1400 (KEPCO), est. 2020
Construction complete – readiness ongoing
$24.4 Billion cost (5380MW) – Government loans @$19.2B
UAE (United Arab Emirates) and Nuclear
26
Nuclear Power – mixed approach
France generates 75% of it’s electricity from nuclear – policy to reduce to 50% by 2035
France exports 70 TWHr at €3Billion revenue per year
Germany is phasing out nuclear by 2022 – was 25%
Sweden has eight reactors providing 40% of the electricity
Belgium (54% nuclear) has closed two units, phasing out
Italy, Switzerland and Spain have banned new reactors
Germany has an aggressive renewable policy
38% of electricity in Germany from renewables
Strong public support: efficiency, especially solar, is improving
Operating challenges have emerged
Alternatives for carbon-free electricity are a challenge
Carbon capture is “work in progress”
Nuclear and hydro power have mixed support
European Electricity Policies
German Polls Support Policy
Electricity growth will be primarily in developing countries
Renewables will continue to dominate the growth agenda
Carbon remains a significant issue, especially in developing countries
Nuclear power is increasing its role outside the U.S.
The role of natural gas will increase, as coal generation is reduced
Technological advances will be essential to improve costs and efficiencies
The “new grid” and cyber security will play an important role
Global Electricity Summary
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