EECS4460.112.16.211.pptx
Power System Management
EECS 4460/5460-901
Lecture #11
Power Generation Alternatives – FUEL
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Is Historical Volatility in our Past? (Indexed 1970-2010)
1 Prices are not adjusted for inflation. See “Nominal Dollars” in Glossary.
2 Wood and wood-derived fuels, and biomass waste; excludes fuel ethanol and biodiesel.
Prior to 2001, also includes non-biomass waste.
3 Based on nominal dollars.
4 Liquefied petroleum gases.
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| Nuclear | Fossil Steam (Coal) | Gas Turbine | Renewables | |
| 2009 | 5.35 | 32.30 | 51.93 | 0 |
| 2019 | 6.81 | 24.28 | 23.11 | 0 |
Fuel Costs: Simple Summary
Average Costs in $/MWHr
EIA Electric Power Annual – October 2020
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| Receipts (Mtons) | Cost ($/MMBtu) | Receipts (Kbarrels) | Cost ($/MMBtu) | Receipts (M Mcf) | Cost ($/MMBtu) | |
| 2009 | 981 | 2.21 | 88,951 | 7.02 | 8,119 | 4.74 |
| 2019 | 560 | 2.02 | 24,556 | 9.07 | 11,693 | 2.89 |
Fossil Fuel Deliveries and Costs
EIA Electric Power Annual – October 2020
Coal
Petroleum
Natural Gas
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Natural Gas Now Competitive with Coal
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With Regional Variations
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Recent Gas Fired Generation by Region
Anthracite
86-97% carbon; .6-.8% sulfur (by weight)
Highest heating value (used by metals industry); 15000 BTU/lb
Less than 1% of U.S coal production - Northeastern PA.
Bituminous
45-86% carbon; 2-4% sulfur (by weight)
Most abundant in U.S.;100-300Million Years; 11000 BTU/lb
About 46% of all U.S. coal production - 74% from WV, IL, PA, KY, IN
Subbituminous
35-46% carbon; <2% sulfur (by weight)
Lower heating value than bituminous; 8500 BTU/lb
About 45% of all U.S. coal production – 89% from WY
Lignite
25-35% carbon; .4-1.0% sulfur (by weight)
Lowest Heating Value; 5900 BTU/lb
9% of all U.S. coal production – 50% from TX, 43% ND
ND facility to convert to synthetic natural gas
Types of Coal
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Coal as a Resource is Regional
Appalachia – 26%
78% Underground
WV largest
Interior – 19%
56% Underground
IL largest
Western – 56%
91% Surface
WY largest @73%
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Overall Coal Production Declining
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Coal Volumes for Power Generation Declining as Well
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Coal Prices Continue to Fall
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Coal-fired generation continues to decline
Pandemic impacted coal generation
With coal plant retirements continuing
Natural Gas Geology
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Natural Gas Production and Delivery
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Gas Transmission Network
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Associated Production Trend Pre-Pandemic
Natural Gas dry production is also regional
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Shale Production “Expansion”
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Marcellus and Utica
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Fracking Simplified
High pressure stream of water, sand and chemical injected
Mixture velocity dislodges rock, releasing gas to the surface
Worldwide, belief is trillions of shale gas could be released
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Issues with Shale Gas Fracking
Improvement of U.S. Energy Security
Positive regional economic effect
Health effects??
Increased truck traffic/on-site diesel generators
Seismic activity risk
Ground water quality concerns
Management of wastewater (recycle/injection)
Banned in NY, VT and MD; France, Germany and others
Financial business model for shale companies
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Earthquake Trends and Wastewater Injection from Shale Wells
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Shale Efficiencies are Improving
Production and Consumption Trend
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Production and Consumption
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Global oil supply has exceeded demand
March 2020: Saudi Arabia cuts price in dispute with Russia
Resulted from proposals to cut production amid the pandemic
Results in 65% quarterly fall in price
U.S. prices fall 34 %, crude price by 26%
April 2020: U.S. futures fall below zero for the first time
WTI crude for June delivery fell to $11.95/bbl
Output reduced
April 2020: Deal reached to cut output by about 10%
Week-long negotiations between OPEC and the group of 20 Nations
May 2020: U.S. shale oil producers cut output dramatically
Further reductions expected
Oil prices “rally” to $40/bbl – sustainable?
Market rebalancing or “plaster on an open wound”?
Winter 2021 cold spell boosts prices to $60/bbl
COVID-19: Energy Markets Impacted
IEA Oil Recovery Forecast
International Energy Agency - April 27, 2020
Gas futures initially rose slightly in response to oil
March 10: January 2021 forwards up to $2.69/MMBtu
Anticipated slowdown in associated gas drilling will trim inventory
Demand still largely weather-driven
Price “recovered” down to pre-COVID levels, $1.60-$1.80/MMBtu,
Winter 2021 cold spell sees regional price spikes
LNG deals have been impacted
Structural challenges existed before the pandemic
Some contract cancellations from “force majeure” clauses
Exports down due to COVID but recovering
Natural Gas Markets are Less Impacted
Natural Gas Price History (1975-2012)
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Remember the Big Picture…
With forecasted consumption increasing
Source: EIA AnnualOutlook 2021
Nuclear Fuel Cycle
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Mined Uranium is Concentrated by Milling
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Enrichment is Next
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5% Enrichment Limit for Commercial Nuclear
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Fabrication is the Final Step
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Fabricated Fuel Assemblies
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The “Saga” of Yucca Mountain
1982 – Congress passes Nuclear Waste Policy
Requiring two repositories
1986 – Three sites are selected: Hanford WA,
Deaf County TX and Yucca Mt. NV
1987 – Congress amends the Act and selects
Yucca Mt.
1994 – Excavation and tunneling begins
1998 – DOE fails to meet deadline for accepting waste
2000 – New Guidelines are issued and NV files lawsuit
2008 – DOE submits license for NRC approval
2015 – NRC issued Safety Evaluation Report
Concept:
The Federal Government is responsible for high level nuclear waste through DOE
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Yucca Mountain Recently …
2016 – Exploratory work halted; site abandoned.
2018 – “Revival’ bill approved by Congress with provisions
for temporary storage. NV Governor vows to oppose.
2021 – Biden administration announces opposition
Meanwhile, 77,000 metric tons of spent fuel is currently being safely stored at 121 locations across 39 states.
By the way, more than 160 million Americans live within 75 miles of those sites.
Yucca Mt. is about 100 miles northwest of Las Vegas, next to the Nevada Test Site
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Spent Fuel: Dry Cask Storage
Spent Nuclear Fuel is Currently being Stored at the Plants in Dry Storage Casks – Concrete or Steel
2-6 Dozen Fuel Assemblies per Cask
Filled with Inert Gas and Sealed
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Spent Fuel Storage
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Long Term Trend: Import Uranium Supply
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Global Uranium Market
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Nuclear Fuel Cost is Driven by Uranium Supply
$29.50
Feb. 2021
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One uranium fuel pellet creates energy equivalent to one ton of coal, 149 gallons of oil or 17,000 cubic feet of natural gas.
An 1110MW PWR has 193 fuel assemblies, over 50,000 fuel rods and some 18 million fuel pellets
A single fuel assembly spends about 5-6 years in a reactor
A reactor is “refueled” about every two years - about 1/3 of the fuel is replaced and the remainder “reshuffled”
Why nuclear fuel costs ($/MWhr) are low
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Power System and the Environment
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