EECS4460.102.9.211.pptx
Power System Management
EECS 4460/5460-901
Lecture #10
Power Generation Alternatives
1
Recap: Our Appetite for Electricity
Annual U.S. Electricity Consumption 1950-2040
Projected
KWH
(billions)
Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2015
Location • Date
2
Total electricity demand increases by 22 percent by 2040
Electricity demand increases in response to population growth and economic growth and fluctuates in the short term in response to business cycles and weather trends
Over the long term, electricity demand growth has slowed progressively in each decade since the 1950s
Electricity use boomed in the 50s, when technological advances led to household products that offered increased efficiency and labor-saving features
Sales of televisions and other home appliances skyrocketed
Slower growth continues as increased demand for electricity is offset by efficiency gains from new appliance efficiency standards and investment in energy-efficient equipment
Largest percentage increase is in the commercial sector, with service industries continuing to lead the growth
Electricity: Bringing Good Energy to Everyday Life
Including Record Consumption in 2018
In fact, it is us … the consumer …
The Historical View…
And the Historical Renewable Growth …
State Renewable Portfolio Standards are Driving Renewable Growth
Recap: Renewable Generation Growth
Overall, (non-hydro) Renewable Generation in 2019 was 440B Kwhr, or 10.6% of the total (4.1 Trillion Kwhr)
Recap: 2021Long-Term Forecast
Long Term Planned Additions are Primarily Renewables and Natural Gas
Natural Gas Drives the Long-Term Forecast
Natural Gas has Emerged as the Top Generation Source*
*EIA, August 26, 2020
Coal Plant Retirement Update*
*EIA, September 1, 2020
Coal Generation has Become More Seasonal*
*EIA, September 1,2020
Wind Generation Sets Record at Year-End 2020
December 2020 Wind Generation
Customer-Owned Generation Increases
Load Forecast – “Needs Analysis”
State Regulatory vs. Market Driven
Financial Considerations
Potential Return on Investment
Cost Recovery Mechanisms
Capital Costs and Time to Build
Assessing Technological Risks
Four-year nominal build time
Operating Costs
Fixed and Variable
Fuel Costs
Assessing Cost and Supply Risks
Transmission Interface Costs
Siting and System Interface
Political and Regulatory Landscape
Adding Generation to the Power System
Capacity Additions and Cost
Construction Costs
Solar Construction Costs
Wind Farm Construction Costs
Natural Gas-Fired Plant Construction Costs
Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE)
Average Revenue per Unit of Electricity Generated that would be required to recover the costs of building and operating a generating or battery storage plant at an assumed financial life and duty cycle.
One Way to Figure the Costs…
Includes: Capital Cost: $/MW
Fuel Costs: $/MWhr
Fixed O&M: $/MW-yr
Variable O&M: $/MWhr
Financing Costs: $
LCOE for Dispatchable Technologies ($/MWhr)
| Capacity Factor (%) | Levelized Capital Cost | Levelized Fixed O&M | Levelized Variable O&M | Total LCOE | |
| Combined Cycle | 87 | 7.78 | 1.61 | 26.68 | 37.11 |
| Combustion Turbine | 10 | 45.41 | 8.03 | 132.38 | 194.87 |
| Advanced Nuclear | 90 | 50.51 | 15.51 | 2.38 | 69.39 |
| Geothermal | 90 | 19.03 | 14.92 | 1.17 | 36.40 |
| Biomass | 83 | 34.96 | 17.38 | 35.78 | 89.21 |
| Battery Storage | 10 | 57.98 | 28.48 | 23.85 | 119.84 |
| Coal | NB | NB | NB | NB | NB |
Total Includes Transmission Costs, excludes tax credits for Nuclear and Geothermal . Source: EIA February 2021 Update
For Units Entering Service in 2026
LCOE for Non-Dispatchable Technologies ($/MWhr)
Total Includes Transmission Costs
Source: EIA 2021 Update For Units Entering Service in 2026
| Capacity Factor (%) | Levelized Capital Cost | Levelized Fixed O&M | Levelized Variable O&M | Total LCOE | Tax Credit* | LOCE w/ Tax Credit | |
| Wind, Onshore | 41 | 27.01 | 7.47 | 0.0 | 36.93 | -6.1 | 30.83 |
| Wind, Offshore | 44 | 89.20 | 28.96 | 0.0 | 120.52 | -12.9 | 107.62 |
| Solar, PV | 29 | 23.52 | 6.07 | 0.0 | 32.78 | -14.3 | 18.48 |
| Solar with storage | 28 | 31.13 | 13.25 | 0.0 | 47.67 | -14.3 | 33.37 |
| Hydro | 55 | 38.62 | 11.23 | 3.58 | 55.26 | NA | 55.26 |
*Current tax credits (ITC and PTC) shown – most expire before 2026, but will likely renew
Regulatory Framework
State Regulatory Resource Plan
Merchant Generation
Financial Impact – Rates and Shareholders
Projected Utilization Rate
Regional Resource Mix
Area “Margins”
Capital and Operating Costs
Fuel Supply and Costs
Transmission Costs & Approval
Environmental Risk Assessment
ReCap: Factors Affecting New Generation Decisions
“And …the Political Environment”
Power Generation Alternatives…Continued
Focus on FUEL
Sourcing
Process
Costs
Considerations
Next Lecture(s)
Chart1
| 1950 |
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Sheet1
| KWH (Billions) | |
| 1950 | 291 |
| 1951 | 300 |
| 1955 | 497 |
| 1960 | 688 |
| 1965 | 954 |
| 1970 | 1392 |
| 1971 | 1470 |
| 1972 | 1595 |
| 1973 | 1713 |
| 1974 | 1706 |
| 1975 | 1747 |
| 1976 | 1855 |
| 1977 | 1948 |
| 1978 | 2018 |
| 1979 | 2071 |
| 1980 | 2094 |
| 1981 | 2147 |
| 1982 | 2086 |
| 1983 | 2151 |
| 1984 | 2286 |
| 1985 | 2324 |
| 1986 | 2369 |
| 1987 | 2457 |
| 1988 | 2578 |
| 1989 | 2756 |
| 1990 | 2837 |
| 1991 | 2886 |
| 1992 | 2897 |
| 1993 | 3001 |
| 1994 | 3081 |
| 1995 | 3164 |
| 1996 | 3254 |
| 1997 | 3302 |
| 1998 | 3425 |
| 1999 | 3484 |
| 2000 | 3592 |
| 2001 | 3557 |
| 2002 | 3632 |
| 2003 | 3662 |
| 2004 | 3716 |
| 2005 | 3811 |
| 2006 | 3817 |
| 2007 | 3890 |
| 2008 | 3865 |
| 2009 | 3724 |
| 2010 | 3886 |
| 2011 | 3900 |
| 2012 | 3950 |
| 2013 | 3836 |
| 2014 | 3867 |
| 2015 | 3800 |
| 2016 | 3850 |
| 2017 | 3850 |
| 2018 | 3992 |
| 2019 | 4024 |
| 2020 | 4056 |
| 2021 | 4088 |
| 2022 | 4121 |
| 2023 | 4154 |
| 2024 | 4187 |
| 2025 | 4220 |
| 2026 | 4254 |
| 2027 | 4288 |
| 2028 | 4322 |
| 2029 | 4357 |
| 2030 | 4392 |
| 2031 | 4427 |
| 2032 | 4462 |
| 2033 | 4498 |
| 2034 | 4534 |
| 2035 | 4570 |
| 2036 | 4607 |
| 2037 | 4644 |
| 2038 | 4681 |
| 2039 | 4718 |
| 2040 | 4756 |
Sheet2
Sheet3
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