Forecasting Exercise
Durga-prasad_01
EduTargetExercise.xlsxExercise
| Assumptions and Background Information | |
| Finance has assigned $6.8M of target to Education in Q4'21. It is our job to assess the risk/upside to this target | |
| The tools typically used are a variety of data analyses. For this exercise, you will have trended product actuals and the overall pipeline history as options to make your assessment | |
| Trended ARR actuals by product type can be found on the "ARR Actuals" tab | |
| Trended pipeline actuals can be found on the "Pipeline Actuals" tab | |
| Goal | |
| 1) Estimate the Q4'21 anticipated actuals for each Edu product | |
| 2) Estimate the total risk or upside versus the total Finance target for Q4'21 | |
| 3) Summarize your findings in a PowerPoint presentation to be discussed with myself and senior leaders | |
| This should include your responses to #1 and #2, a brief summary of your approach, and any additional information that you feel would improve the analysis | |
ARR Actuals
| Qtr | Week | Named | SDL | SLP | Total ARR | |
| Q1'19 | WK 1 | 90,000 | 38,000 | 21,000 | 149,000 | |
| Q1'19 | WK 2 | 72,000 | 18,000 | 51,000 | 141,000 | |
| Q1'19 | WK 3 | 88,000 | 143,000 | 30,000 | 261,000 | |
| Q1'19 | WK 4 | 83,000 | 36,000 | 20,000 | 139,000 | |
| Q1'19 | WK 5 | 82,000 | 51,000 | 13,000 | 146,000 | |
| Q1'19 | WK 6 | 142,000 | 36,000 | 30,000 | 208,000 | |
| Q1'19 | WK 7 | 48,000 | 169,000 | 29,000 | 246,000 | |
| Q1'19 | WK 8 | 121,000 | 87,000 | 26,000 | 234,000 | |
| Q1'19 | WK 9 | 113,000 | 262,000 | 52,000 | 427,000 | |
| Q1'19 | WK 10 | 99,000 | 33,000 | 32,000 | 164,000 | |
| Q1'19 | WK 11 | 243,000 | 78,000 | 46,000 | 367,000 | |
| Q1'19 | WK 12 | 105,000 | 265,000 | 23,000 | 393,000 | |
| Q1'19 | WK 13 | 277,000 | 184,000 | 41,000 | 502,000 | |
| Q4'18 | WK 1 | 180,000 | 32,000 | 10,000 | 222,000 | |
| Q4'18 | WK 2 | 104,000 | 20,000 | 14,000 | 138,000 | |
| Q4'18 | WK 3 | 73,000 | 120,000 | 12,000 | 205,000 | |
| Q4'18 | WK 4 | 182,000 | 31,000 | 54,000 | 267,000 | |
| Q4'18 | WK 5 | 82,000 | 39,000 | 12,000 | 133,000 | |
| Q4'18 | WK 6 | 102,000 | 33,000 | 30,000 | 165,000 | |
| Q4'18 | WK 7 | 75,000 | 57,000 | 21,000 | 153,000 | |
| Q4'18 | WK 8 | 106,000 | 61,000 | 20,000 | 187,000 | |
| Q4'18 | WK 9 | 200,000 | 69,000 | 22,000 | 291,000 | |
| Q4'18 | WK 10 | 102,000 | 144,000 | 14,000 | 260,000 | |
| Q4'18 | WK 11 | 173,000 | 61,000 | 24,000 | 258,000 | |
| Q4'18 | WK 12 | 81,000 | 275,000 | 16,000 | 372,000 | |
| Q4'18 | WK 13 | 312,000 | 333,000 | 195,000 | 840,000 | |
| Q3'18 | WK 1 | 116,000 | 22,000 | 11,000 | 149,000 | |
| Q3'18 | WK 2 | 41,000 | 35,000 | 31,000 | 107,000 | |
| Q3'18 | WK 3 | 134,000 | 135,000 | 24,000 | 293,000 | |
| Q3'18 | WK 4 | 116,000 | 97,000 | 41,000 | 254,000 | |
| Q3'18 | WK 5 | 43,000 | 52,000 | 34,000 | 129,000 | |
| Q3'18 | WK 6 | 67,000 | 37,000 | 25,000 | 129,000 | |
| Q3'18 | WK 7 | 156,000 | 62,000 | 34,000 | 252,000 | |
| Q3'18 | WK 8 | 116,000 | 124,000 | 25,000 | 265,000 | |
| Q3'18 | WK 9 | 177,000 | 28,000 | 27,000 | 232,000 | |
| Q3'18 | WK 10 | 102,000 | 26,000 | 68,000 | 196,000 | |
| Q3'18 | WK 11 | 106,000 | 161,000 | 25,000 | 292,000 | |
| Q3'18 | WK 12 | 165,000 | 164,000 | 78,000 | 407,000 | |
| Q3'18 | WK 13 | 346,000 | 164,000 | 5,000 | 515,000 | |
| Q2'18 | WK 1 | 44,000 | 5,000 | 28,000 | 77,000 | |
| Q2'18 | WK 2 | 140,000 | 50,000 | 26,000 | 216,000 | |
| Q2'18 | WK 3 | 56,000 | 72,000 | 30,000 | 158,000 | |
| Q2'18 | WK 4 | 207,000 | 39,000 | 28,000 | 274,000 | |
| Q2'18 | WK 5 | 87,000 | 168,000 | 9,000 | 264,000 | |
| Q2'18 | WK 6 | 75,000 | 45,000 | 22,000 | 142,000 | |
| Q2'18 | WK 7 | 247,000 | 52,000 | 24,000 | 323,000 | |
| Q2'18 | WK 8 | 161,000 | 40,000 | 63,000 | 264,000 | |
| Q2'18 | WK 9 | 162,000 | 137,000 | 22,000 | 321,000 | |
| Q2'18 | WK 10 | 82,000 | 60,000 | 32,000 | 174,000 | |
| Q2'18 | WK 11 | 196,000 | 25,000 | 34,000 | 255,000 | |
| Q2'18 | WK 12 | 63,000 | 64,000 | 23,000 | 150,000 | |
| Q2'18 | WK 13 | 232,000 | 211,000 | 29,000 | 472,000 | |
| Q1'18 | WK 1 | 111,000 | 9,000 | 15,000 | 135,000 | |
| Q1'18 | WK 2 | 65,000 | 8,000 | 15,000 | 88,000 | |
| Q1'18 | WK 3 | 62,000 | 11,000 | 33,000 | 106,000 | |
| Q1'18 | WK 4 | 62,000 | 4,000 | 44,000 | 110,000 | |
| Q1'18 | WK 5 | 31,000 | 9,000 | 19,000 | 59,000 | |
| Q1'18 | WK 6 | 59,000 | 71,000 | 40,000 | 170,000 | |
| Q1'18 | WK 7 | 29,000 | 18,000 | 25,000 | 72,000 | |
| Q1'18 | WK 8 | 59,000 | 94,000 | 31,000 | 184,000 | |
| Q1'18 | WK 9 | 113,000 | 47,000 | 21,000 | 181,000 | |
| Q1'18 | WK 10 | 40,000 | 143,000 | 17,000 | 200,000 | |
| Q1'18 | WK 11 | 161,000 | 121,000 | 9,000 | 291,000 | |
| Q1'18 | WK 12 | 150,000 | 21,000 | 26,000 | 197,000 | |
| Q1'18 | WK 13 | 229,000 | 204,000 | 32,000 | 465,000 | |
| Q2'19 | WK 1 | 30,000 | 70,000 | 15,000 | 115,000 | |
| Q2'19 | WK 2 | 73,000 | 42,000 | 32,000 | 147,000 | |
| Q2'19 | WK 3 | 91,000 | 113,000 | 28,000 | 232,000 | |
| Q2'19 | WK 4 | 67,000 | 255,000 | 61,000 | 383,000 | |
| Q2'19 | WK 5 | 57,000 | 125,000 | 30,000 | 212,000 | |
| Q2'19 | WK 6 | 59,000 | 127,000 | 30,000 | 216,000 | |
| Q2'19 | WK 7 | 50,000 | 108,000 | 33,000 | 191,000 | |
| Q2'19 | WK 8 | 89,000 | 105,000 | 43,000 | 237,000 | |
| Q2'19 | WK 9 | 35,000 | 124,000 | 34,000 | 193,000 | |
| Q2'19 | WK 10 | 83,000 | 75,000 | 46,000 | 204,000 | |
| Q2'19 | WK 11 | 67,000 | 217,000 | 29,000 | 313,000 | |
| Q2'19 | WK 12 | 79,000 | 360,000 | 49,000 | 488,000 | |
| Q2'19 | WK 13 | 483,000 | 123,000 | 73,000 | 679,000 | |
| Q3' 19 | WK 1 | 67,000 | 36,000 | 29,000 | 132,000 | |
| Q3' 19 | WK 2 | 92,000 | 146,000 | 39,000 | 277,000 | |
| Q3' 19 | WK 3 | 45,000 | 119,000 | 56,000 | 220,000 | |
| Q3' 19 | WK 4 | 146,000 | 212,000 | 82,000 | 440,000 | |
| Q3' 19 | WK 5 | 59,000 | 40,000 | 74,000 | 173,000 | |
| Q3' 19 | WK 6 | 109,000 | 119,000 | 31,000 | 259,000 | |
| Q3' 19 | WK 7 | 93,000 | 59,000 | 34,000 | 186,000 | |
| Q3' 19 | WK 8 | 65,000 | 394,000 | 22,000 | 481,000 | |
| Q3' 19 | WK 9 | 101,000 | 253,000 | 53,000 | 407,000 | |
| Q3' 19 | WK 10 | 79,000 | 156,000 | 67,000 | 302,000 | |
| Q3' 19 | WK 11 | 116,000 | 111,000 | 49,000 | 276,000 | |
| Q3' 19 | WK 12 | 104,000 | 296,000 | 131,000 | 531,000 | |
| Q3' 19 | WK 13 | 256,000 | 527,000 | 57,000 | 840,000 | |
| Q4' 19 | WK 1 | 60,000 | 101,000 | 40,000 | 201,000 | |
| Q4' 19 | WK 2 | 64,000 | 87,000 | 35,000 | 186,000 | |
| Q4' 19 | WK 3 | 218,000 | 149,000 | 41,000 | 408,000 | |
| Q4' 19 | WK 4 | 105,000 | 210,000 | 60,000 | 375,000 | |
| Q4' 19 | WK 5 | 65,000 | 318,000 | 35,000 | 418,000 | |
| Q4' 19 | WK 6 | 46,000 | 220,000 | 48,000 | 314,000 | |
| Q4' 19 | WK 7 | 109,000 | 162,000 | 52,000 | 323,000 | |
| Q4' 19 | WK 8 | 134,000 | 96,000 | 68,000 | 298,000 | |
| Q4' 19 | WK 9 | 99,000 | 229,000 | 61,000 | 389,000 | |
| Q4' 19 | WK 10 | 103,000 | 192,000 | 53,000 | 348,000 | |
| Q4' 19 | WK 11 | 98,000 | 210,000 | 41,000 | 349,000 | |
| Q4' 19 | WK 12 | 237,000 | 367,000 | 97,000 | 701,000 | |
| Q4' 19 | WK 13 | 91,000 | 529,000 | 123,000 | 743,000 | |
| Q1'20 | WK 1 | 95,000 | 121,000 | 23,000 | 239,000 | |
| Q1'20 | WK 2 | 84,000 | 337,000 | 217,000 | 638,000 | |
| Q1'20 | WK 3 | 120,000 | 280,000 | 61,000 | 461,000 | |
| Q1'20 | WK 4 | 36,000 | 134,000 | 69,000 | 239,000 | |
| Q1'20 | WK 5 | 50,000 | 126,000 | 23,000 | 199,000 | |
| Q1'20 | WK 6 | 132,000 | 61,000 | 45,000 | 238,000 | |
| Q1'20 | WK 7 | 47,000 | 218,000 | 42,000 | 307,000 | |
| Q1'20 | WK 8 | 80,000 | 67,000 | 28,000 | 175,000 | |
| Q1'20 | WK 9 | 203,000 | 110,000 | 48,000 | 361,000 | |
| Q1'20 | WK 10 | 77,000 | 98,000 | 70,000 | 245,000 | |
| Q1'20 | WK 11 | 99,000 | 277,000 | 51,000 | 427,000 | |
| Q1'20 | WK 12 | 191,000 | 333,000 | 52,000 | 576,000 | |
| Q1'20 | WK 13 | 134,000 | 538,000 | 102,000 | 774,000 | |
| Q2'20 | WK 1 | 110,000 | 28,000 | 31,000 | 169,000 | |
| Q2'20 | WK 2 | 65,000 | 79,000 | 30,000 | 174,000 | |
| Q2'20 | WK 3 | 266,000 | 177,000 | 51,000 | 494,000 | |
| Q2'20 | WK 4 | 105,000 | 70,000 | 100,000 | 275,000 | |
| Q2'20 | WK 5 | 113,000 | 256,000 | 53,000 | 422,000 | |
| Q2'20 | WK 6 | 89,000 | 107,000 | 24,000 | 220,000 | |
| Q2'20 | WK 7 | 118,000 | 151,000 | 43,000 | 312,000 | |
| Q2'20 | WK 8 | 51,000 | 80,000 | 45,000 | 176,000 | |
| Q2'20 | WK 9 | 151,000 | 54,000 | 36,000 | 241,000 | |
| Q2'20 | WK 10 | 72,000 | 78,000 | 30,000 | 180,000 | |
| Q2'20 | WK 11 | 52,000 | 177,000 | 27,000 | 256,000 | |
| Q2'20 | WK 12 | 101,000 | 347,000 | 62,000 | 510,000 | |
| Q2'20 | WK 13 | 175,000 | 309,000 | 209,000 | 693,000 | |
| Q3'20 | WK 1 | 86,000 | 159,000 | 29,000 | 274,000 | |
| Q3'20 | WK 2 | 80,000 | 136,000 | 42,000 | 258,000 | |
| Q3'20 | WK 3 | 35,000 | 52,000 | 45,000 | 132,000 | |
| Q3'20 | WK 4 | 191,000 | 213,000 | 73,000 | 477,000 | |
| Q3'20 | WK 5 | 127,000 | 150,000 | 63,000 | 340,000 | |
| Q3'20 | WK 6 | 85,000 | 107,000 | 42,000 | 234,000 | |
| Q3'20 | WK 7 | 34,000 | 150,000 | 51,000 | 235,000 | |
| Q3'20 | WK 8 | 65,000 | 119,000 | 46,000 | 230,000 | |
| Q3'20 | WK 9 | 202,000 | 230,000 | 57,000 | 489,000 | |
| Q3'20 | WK 10 | 118,000 | 107,000 | 56,000 | 281,000 | |
| Q3'20 | WK 11 | 169,000 | 98,000 | 47,000 | 314,000 | |
| Q3'20 | WK 12 | 94,000 | 531,000 | 102,000 | 727,000 | |
| Q3'20 | WK 13 | 471,000 | 324,000 | 129,000 | 924,000 | |
| Q4'20 | WK 1 | 107,000 | 112,000 | 56,000 | 275,000 | |
| Q4'20 | WK 2 | 72,000 | 70,000 | 73,000 | 215,000 | |
| Q4'20 | WK 3 | 113,000 | 97,000 | 46,000 | 256,000 | |
| Q4'20 | WK 4 | 199,000 | 239,000 | 47,000 | 485,000 | |
| Q4'20 | WK 5 | 141,000 | 225,000 | 62,000 | 428,000 | |
| Q4'20 | WK 6 | 96,000 | 101,000 | 62,000 | 259,000 | |
| Q4'20 | WK 7 | 185,000 | 91,000 | 57,000 | 333,000 | |
| Q4'20 | WK 8 | 137,000 | 115,000 | 61,000 | 313,000 | |
| Q4'20 | WK 9 | 182,000 | 211,000 | 75,000 | 468,000 | |
| Q4'20 | WK 10 | 165,000 | 301,000 | 38,000 | 504,000 | |
| Q4'20 | WK 11 | 57,000 | 223,000 | 64,000 | 344,000 | |
| Q4'20 | WK 12 | 215,000 | 567,000 | 40,000 | 822,000 | |
| Q4'20 | WK 13 | 197,000 | 367,000 | 126,000 | 690,000 | |
| Q1'21 | WK 1 | 104,500 | 127,050 | 24,610 | 256,160 | |
| Q1'21 | WK 2 | 92,400 | 353,850 | 232,190 | 678,440 | |
| Q1'21 | WK 3 | 132,000 | 294,000 | 65,270 | 491,270 | |
| Q1'21 | WK 4 | 39,600 | 140,700 | 73,830 | 254,130 | |
| Q1'21 | WK 5 | 55,000 | 132,300 | 24,610 | 211,910 | |
| Q1'21 | WK 6 | 145,200 | 64,050 | 48,150 | 257,400 | |
| Q1'21 | WK 7 | 51,700 | 228,900 | 44,940 | 325,540 | |
| Q1'21 | WK 8 | 88,000 | 70,350 | 29,960 | 188,310 | |
| Q1'21 | WK 9 | 223,300 | 115,500 | 51,360 | 390,160 | |
| Q1'21 | WK 10 | 84,700 | 102,900 | 74,900 | 262,500 | |
| Q1'21 | WK 11 | 108,900 | 290,850 | 54,570 | 454,320 | |
| Q1'21 | WK 12 | 210,100 | 349,650 | 55,640 | 615,390 | |
| Q1'21 | WK 13 | 147,400 | 564,900 | 109,140 | 821,440 | |
| Q2'21 | WK 1 | 121,000 | 29,400 | 33,170 | 183,570 | |
| Q2'21 | WK 2 | 71,500 | 82,950 | 32,100 | 186,550 | |
| Q2'21 | WK 3 | 292,600 | 185,850 | 54,570 | 533,020 | |
| Q2'21 | WK 4 | 115,500 | 73,500 | 107,000 | 296,000 | |
| Q2'21 | WK 5 | 124,300 | 268,800 | 56,710 | 449,810 | |
| Q2'21 | WK 6 | 97,900 | 112,350 | 25,680 | 235,930 | |
| Q2'21 | WK 7 | 129,800 | 158,550 | 46,010 | 334,360 | |
| Q2'21 | WK 8 | 56,100 | 84,000 | 48,150 | 188,250 | |
| Q2'21 | WK 9 | 166,100 | 56,700 | 38,520 | 261,320 | |
| Q2'21 | WK 10 | 79,200 | 81,900 | 32,100 | 193,200 | |
| Q2'21 | WK 11 | 57,200 | 185,850 | 28,890 | 271,940 | |
| Q2'21 | WK 12 | 111,100 | 364,350 | 66,340 | 541,790 | |
| Q2'21 | WK 13 | 192,500 | 324,450 | 223,630 | 740,580 | |
| Q3'21 | WK 1 | 94,600 | 166,950 | 31,030 | 292,580 | |
| Q3'21 | WK 2 | 88,000 | 142,800 | 44,940 | 275,740 | |
| Q3'21 | WK 3 | 38,500 | 54,600 | 48,150 | 141,250 | |
| Q3'21 | WK 4 | 210,100 | 223,650 | 78,110 | 511,860 | |
| Q3'21 | WK 5 | 139,700 | 157,500 | 67,410 | 364,610 | |
| Q3'21 | WK 6 | 93,500 | 112,350 | 44,940 | 250,790 | |
| Q3'21 | WK 7 | 37,400 | 157,500 | 54,570 | 249,470 | |
| Q3'21 | WK 8 | 71,500 | 124,950 | 49,220 | 245,670 | |
| Q3'21 | WK 9 | 222,200 | 241,500 | 60,990 | 524,690 | |
| Q3'21 | WK 10 | 129,800 | 112,350 | 59,920 | 302,070 | |
| Q3'21 | WK 11 | 185,900 | 102,900 | 50,290 | 339,090 | |
| Q3'21 | WK 12 | 103,400 | 557,550 | 109,140 | 770,090 | |
| Q3'21 | WK 13 | 518,100 | 340,200 | 138,030 | 996,330 |
Pipeline Actuals
| Beginning Pipeline | New Pipeline | Beg Pipe Won | New Pipe Won | ||
| Q1'19 | 10,876,012 | 4,350,405 | 2,476,466 | 900,534 | |
| Q2'19 | 10,782,559 | 4,852,152 | 2,561,938 | 1,048,062 | |
| Q3'19 | 12,248,198 | 5,144,243 | 3,273,947 | 1,250,053 | |
| Q4'19 | 13,862,816 | 5,545,127 | 3,705,532 | 1,347,468 | |
| Q1'20 | 15,405,267 | 6,624,265 | 3,507,776 | 1,371,224 | |
| Q2'20 | 10,255,265 | 4,512,316 | 2,944,284 | 1,177,716 | |
| Q3'20 | 16,777,611 | 7,549,925 | 3,488,064 | 1,426,936 | |
| Q4'20 | 17,365,552 | 6,946,221 | 3,954,135 | 1,437,865 | |
| Q1'21 | 16,070,880 | 6,428,352 | 3,818,445 | 1,388,525 | |
| Q2'21 | 12,015,511 | 6,411,022 | 2,973,839 | 1,442,481 | |
| Q3'21 | 14,490,877 | 6,086,168 | 3,809,648 | 1,454,592 | |
| Q4'21 | 17,045,468 | ||||
