eco pp4

ECO 309

Economic Forecasting

Project Part 4

 

 

TURN IN ONLY A SINGLE WORD DOCUMENT AND WRITE YOUR NAME ON EACH PAGE

 

1. Remind me if Xs are highly correlated (scatter plots, VIF, correlations). If you have sign switch, correct the

Situation by throwing one of the variables out of the model?  Consider R-squared or adj R-squared when making the decision.

2. Using the scatter plots you generated, identify any nonlinear relationships between Y and X variables.

Try to correct nonlinearity through transformation (page 233-237). If it works keep the transformations. If not, move on to the next test.

3. Once you correct for nonlinearity and multicollinearity, check for autocorrelation using DW test. Do you have autocorrelation? Correct for autocorrelation if you have any.

4. Once you corrected for all possible problems, rewrite your final equation, INTERPRET the equation, and forecast y, for 35th in sample observation.

5. Incorporate seasonal dummies and trend into your model. Identify if you have seasonality, trend by checking their significance? Is that consistent with your previous findings?

6. Analyze the resulting residuals (page 229)

7. How does regression analysis do compared to other methods you have learned? Hint: Copy and paste your table from previous project part for the error summaries of univariate models and add regression analysis to the table.