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Question 1: True/False [15 points]

i. When people are stuck in a poverty trap, no aid or intervention can help them.

£ True

£ False

ii. Famine—that is, extreme scarcity of food in a particular geographic area—is becoming less common over time.

£ True

£ False

iii. Most children in developing countries today are not enrolled in school.

£ True

£ False

iv. In many developing countries, the poor spend a significant proportion of their budgets on food.

£ True

£ False

v. Books for Africa is a non-profit organization that ships used textbooks to primary school students in Africa. Based on the evidence we saw in class, this program is likely to be highly effective at improving learning outcomes for students who receive the donated books.

£ True

£ False

vi.

Question 2: Multiple choice [15 points]

i. A key contribution of the Miguel & Kremer (2004) paper on mass deworming was that their design accounted for externalities of the treatment. Because of externalities, previous papers that used individual-level randomization:

a) Understated the effect of deworming on educational outcomes (made it seem less effective than it really was)

b) Overstated the effect of deworming on educational outcomes (made it seem more effective than it really was)

c) Were biased, but the direction of bias is unclear

d) Provided unbiased estimates of the effect of deworming on educational outcomes

e) It is not possible to say.

ii. A good for which consumption decreases as the price decreases is called a “Giffen” good. Which of the following is most likely to be a Giffen good for the poor in a developing country?

a) Meat

b) Fish

c) Chocolate

d) Rice

e) All of the above

iii. Based on the evidence we saw in class, which of the following policies or programs have been successful at improving school enrollment?

a) Providing cash to families who enroll their children in school

b) Providing cash to families with no strings attached

c) Providing information about job opportunities for educated people

d) a) and b)

e) a) and c)

iv. In class and in the reading, we saw good evidence for a nutrition-based poverty trap in which of the following areas?

a) Adults experiencing extreme undernutrition (insufficient calories) in Indonesia

b) Floriculture workers who received extra meals in Ethiopia

c) Children experiencing micronutrient deficiency in Kenya

d) Poor households consuming rice and wheat in China

e) All of the above

v. What has been the main cause of famine in the current century?

a) Insufficient global food production

b) Conflict and war

c) Government corruption and elite capture of resources

d) The poor choosing not to buy food

e) All of the above

Question 3 [10 points]

1. Please define a poverty trap. (2)

2. The following figures depict potential relationships between an individual’s income today and income tomorrow. In which figures could a poverty trap occur? Select ALL that apply (4)

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a)

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b)

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c)

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d)

3. In class, we discussed an example of how adult undernutrition could create an “S-shaped” relationship between poor laborers’ income today and work hours tomorrow. Describe one other example of how we could see an S-shaped relationship between income today and income, work hours, or work capacity in the future (for example, related to child nutrition, education investments, or agriculture). (4)

Question 4 [20 points]

The below questions are based on Jensen (2012), “Do Labor Market Opportunities Affect Young Women’s Work and Family Decisions?” which studies the impact of informing young women in rural India about new job opportunities in the business process outsourcing (BPO) sector.

i. This study is a test of the human capital model. The human capital model says that an individual will complete an additional year of schooling if:

where the variables are the same as defined in class: is the direct cost of schooling, is the indirect cost of schooling, is the wage in time t if you obtain schooling, and is the wage in time t if you do not obtain schooling. In 2-3 sentences, explain what this expression means (that is, explain the intuition behind this result). (4)

ii. The study tests the human capital model because the intervention changes people’s beliefs about one of the variables in the expression above. Which variable is this? (2)

iii. The study found that, in treatment villages, girls aged 6-17 were more likely to be enrolled in school, even though the intervention targeted young women aged 18-24. Is this result consistent with the human capital model? Why or why not? (4)

iv. Imagine a program similar to the one in the study, where recruiters came to villages to inform young women about labor market opportunities. However, suppose this program focuses on agricultural day labor rather than call center jobs. How do you think this program would affect whether young girls are enrolled in school? Explain why, using the human capital model. (5)

v. Now imagine that the village was exposed to a disease epidemic primarily affecting people in their 20s and 30s. How do you think this program would affect whether young girls are enrolled in school? Explain why, again using the human capital model. (5)

Question 5 [20 points]

Between 2010 and 2015, a government rolls out a school lunch program to different schools. Suppose you are the lead researcher on an impact evaluation of the new schools. You are given the table below. The number in each cell is the average weight in pounds for 8 year olds.

Average weight of 8 year olds:

School received program between 2010 and 2015?

Yes: Lunch program

No lunch program

Data collected in 2015

43

50

i. Using only the data above, compute an estimate of the impact of the school lunch program. That is, if we take this estimate at face value, how does participating in the school lunch program change children’s weight? (2)

ii. Provide one specific and concrete reason that this a poor estimate of the impact of the program. (4)

Fortunately, you are able to obtain additional data from 2009, before the lunch program started were built:

Average weight of 8 year olds:

School received program between 2010 and 2015?

Yes: Lunch program

No lunch program

2015 Data

43

50

2009 Data

41

49.5

iii. Is this new data consistent with the problem you identified in (ii)? Why or why not? (4)

iv. Compute the Difference-in-Differences estimate of the effect of the school building program schooling attainment. (4)

v. Now, suppose you learn that in some regions, children who live on the border of two school districts were randomly chosen to go to either a school that got the new program, or a school that didn’t. You are able to obtain data on these children as follows. Use these data to calculate your best estimate of the impact of the school lunch program. (4)

Randomly assigned to attend school that received lunch program between 2010 and 2015?

Yes: attended lunch program

No lunch program

2015 Data

43.3

40.01

2013 Data

42.5

40.02

vi. Explain why you calculated the impact the way that you did. (2)

Question 6: Short Answer [10 points each]

Answer only TWO of the following questions. If you answer more than two, only the first two will be graded. Each answer should be about 5 sentences.

a) Jensen and Miller randomize the prices of staple foods in China. They find that when they reduce prices, demand for staple foods decreases, and in fact total calories consumed also decrease. Explain what this implies about the income elasticity of demand for calories. Then, explain whether this is consistent or inconsistent with the idea of a nutrition-based poverty trap. A complete answer will include a discussion of why Giffen goods violate the law of demand.

b) Discuss one current demand-side issue and one current supply-side issue in education in developing countries. Provide examples of two promising programs to address one or both of these issues.

c) Carter, Laajaj and Yang, studied temporary agricultural input subsidies to improve farmers' productivity. Briefly summarize the key elements of the program and the results of the evaluation. Then, discuss whether the results are consistent or inconsistent with the idea of a poverty trap and justify your answer.

d) What is the “transportation problem” in randomized controlled trials and related methods? Explain in detail. Then, discuss how it affects our interpretation of the results of the studies we have learned about in class.

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