operation strategy

DynaSol_SolarWaterHeating_MGMT_707_Summ12016.xlsx

Assignment

LASELL COLLEGE
GRADUATE SCHOOL
MGMT 707 OPERATIONS STRATEGY
FORECASTING ASSIGNMENT SUMM 1, 2016
DYNASOL, A ACTIVE SOLAR WATER HEATING EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURER
Dynasol is in a rapidly growing and highly competitive field of Solar Water Heating.
It needs a forecast for based on their sales history and on the total solar heating market sales history
The forecast is needed as Dynasol is at manufacturing capacity and needs information to determine how much to expand.
The assignment is to develop a 6 month forecast for their sales and for the total market sales.
	DynaSol		Total Market
Month		Sales in Units	Sales in units
2014
September		24	223
October		28	228
November		31	230
December		32	231
2015
January		30	229
February		35	235
March		39	240
April		40	265
May		43	281
June		47	298
July		51	314
August		54	354
September		59	389
October		62	421
November		67	466
December		69	501
2016
January		74	529
February		79	573
Hint #1 a simple moving average will not work. Moving Average methods can only forecast for the next time period.
Hint #2 a trend analysis can work
Hint #3 a graphic analysis can work.

LASELL COLLEGE
GRADUATE SCHOOL
MGMT 707 OPERATIONS STRATEGY
FORECASTING ASSIGNMENT
The Data:
	DynaSol			Total Market
Month		Sales in Units		Sales in units
2014
September		24		223
October		28		228
November		31		230
December		32		231
2015
January		30		229
February		35		235
March		39		240
April		40		265
May		43		281
June		47		298
July		51		314
August		54		354
September		59		389
October		62		421
November		67		466
December		69		501
2016
January		74		529
February		79		573
INSTRUCTIONS:
There are 2 simple methods to use for this assignment:
A) A modified trend analysis:
#1 Determine the average monthly difference in Dynasol's sales in units.
#2 Add that difference to Feb. '16 and repeat until you have the future 6 months data.
#3 Chart the data (highlight the data, open the "insert tab" in charts select a line chart).
#4 Does it look like it belongs?
#5 Repeat the same 4 steps for Total Market.
DynaSol			Total Market
	Sales in Units		Sales in units
	24		223
	28		228
	31		230
	32		231
	30		229
	35		235
	39		240
	40		265
	43		281
	47		298
	51		314
	54		354
	59		389
	62		421
	67		466
	69		501
	74		529
	79		573
B) The graphics approach:
#1 Use the same data under part A).
#2 Prepare a chart of the 18 months.
#3 Take a straight edge and line it up so that it "fits".
#4 Do not move the straight edge and extend the line for another 6 months.
#5 Does It looks like it belongs?
#6 Repeat the same steps for Total Market.