Quant

RiskSerializationData

1	0
0
0	TRUE	0	1	GF1_rK0qDwEADADDAAwjACYAOwBRAGUAZgByAH4AnQC/ALkAKgD//wAAAAAAAQQAAAAAB0dlbmVyYWwAAAABEEJhdGNoZXMgcmVxdWlyZWQBAAEBEAACAAEKU3RhdGlzdGljcwMBAQD/AQEBAQEAAQEBAAIAAQEBAQEAAQEBAAIAAYIAAhcAEEJhdGNoZXMgcmVxdWlyZWQAAC8BAgACAKUArwABAQIBmpmZmZmZqT8AAGZmZmZmZu4/AAAFAAEBAQABAQEA	1	0	0		>75%	<25%	>90%																					0	1	1	FALSE	TRUE	0	FALSE	ERROR:#NAME?
0
FALSE	13440	6498	10560	100
FALSE	13440	6497.5	10560	500
FALSE	13440	6497.5	10560	1000
FALSE	13440	6497.5	10560	1500
FALSE	13440	6497.5	10560	2000
0
0.01	FALSE	FALSE	10	0.5	1

Model

Planning production of a drug
Input section
Ounces required	8000				Distribution of days needed to produce a batch (discrete)
Due date	1-Dec					Days	Probability
						5	0.05
Distribution of yield (ounces) from each batch						6	0.10
						7	0.20
	Average	900				8	0.30
	Standard Deviation	75				9	0.20
						10	0.10
						11	0.05
						Outputs
						Batches required
						Days to complete
						Day to start
							Statistical summary measures
							Max batches reqd				Probability of meeting due date
											Start date	Probability of completion by due date
Prob of passing inspection	0.8						Avg days reqd				15-Jul
							Min days reqd				1-Aug
							Max days reqd				15-Aug
Simulation model							5th perc days reqd				1-Sep
Batch	Days	Yield	Pass?	CumYield	Enough?		95th perc days reqd				15-Sep
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Wozac Company is a drug manufacturer. Wozac has recently accepted an order from its best customer for 8000 ounces of a new miracle drug, and Wozac wants to plan its production schedule to meet the customer’s promised delivery date of December 1. There are three sources of uncertainty that make planning difficult. First, the drug must be produced in batches, and there is uncertainty in the time required to produce a batch, which could be anywhere from 5 to 11 days. This uncertainty is described by the discrete distribution in the model. Second, the yield (usable quantity) from any batch is uncertain. Based on historical data, Wozac believes the yield can be modeled by an average yield of 900 with a standard deviation of 75. Third, all batches must go through a rigorous inspection once they are completed. The probability that a typical batch passes inspection is only 0.8. With probability 0.2, the batch fails inspection, and none of it can be used to help fill the order. Wozac wants to use simulation to help decide how many days prior to the due date it should begin production. To use simulation to determine when Wozac should begin production for this order so that there is a high probability of completing it by the due date.