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Disasters and conflict

RECOMMENDATIONS The successor to the HFA should explicitly recognise the need and value of building disaster risk management institutions as a means to support governance strengthening.

• For contexts where formal Government structures are in place, disaster management should be seen as a means through which to strengthen policy formulation processes, national fiscal and budgetary arrangements, and institution building.

• For vulnerable populations living in areas where the state and/or governance structures are lacking, or where those in power are party to a conflict, international support should be provided to enhance disaster management through local action, governance arrangements at the sub-national level and through informal institutions.

The successor should include action and indicators on:

Complexity of risk To include the relationship between natural hazards, climate change, conflict and fragility in risk and vulnerability assessments.

Dual benfits Seek opportunities for co-benefits for peacebuilding and state building as well as development progress. And as a bare minimum, adopt climate and conflict-sensitive approaches to disaster risk management.

Inclusive governance Adopt inclusive decision making processes, with appropriate mechanisms in participation, accountability and transparency.

Disasters in challenging contexts account for some of the largest on record

disasters associated with natural hazards were in contexts affected by complex political emergencies. But the gaps in evidence are immense- true numbers are likely to be much higher.

haiti earthquake 2010 Killed 222,570 Affected 3,700,000

chad drought 2009 Affected 2,400,000

drought 2012 Affected 1,600,000

pakistan flooding 2005 Affected 7,000,450

flooding 2010 Affected 20,359,496

pakistan earthquake 2005 Killed 73,338 Affected 5,128,000

myanmar cyclone 2008 Killed 138,366 Affected 2,240,000

Future projections show that climate related disaster

vulnerability will be felt most in fragile and conflict

affected states

Recorded data shows that between 1999 and 2004

The necessary elements of disaster risk management are development levels, political conditions and risk governance

The top twenty ranked countries most at risk of combined high levels of fragility, disaster, poverty and climate change vulnerability, combined

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KEY MESSAGE Fragile and conflict affected states experience shocks and stresses related to natural hazards simultaneously to the challenges of conflict and fragility. Much can be done to reduce, manage and prepare for natural disasters in more appropriate – or in some cases more interconnected – ways. The successor to the HFA must do more to support effective disaster risk reduction in these complex contexts by being explicit about the need to support governance strengthening as a starting point to building disaster resilience.

Many disasters occur in fragile states and conflict affected, accounting for a high proportion of disaster- affected populations each year.

The latest IPCC report tells us that:

Location of people affected by natural disasters

From 2005–2009, more than 50% of people impacted by natural hazard related disasters lived in fragile and conflict affected states.

Our future will almost certainly feature an increase in climate-

related disasters.

Countries experiencing violent conflict or difficulties in

governance are least likely to be able to support communities to deal with vulnerability to climate impacts, or be able to adapt to

climate change.

Contact Katie Peters at ODI for further information, including the background evidence for this set of graphics. [email protected]

Poorly designed risk reduction, adaptation and mitigation

strategies can increase the risk of conflict.

In some years the figure is more than 80%.

Non-conflict affected (excl. China) Conflict affected

50%

1 2 3 4

80% 2005

%

2006 2007 2008 2009

10 0

90 80

70 60

50 40

30 20

10

high levels of human

development, political stability

and democracy: includes New Zealand,

the Netherlands, Australia, Finland, Norway, Japan, Slovenia, Sweden, the UK, Denmark, Canada,

Iceland, Hungary, Korea, Germany and the US.

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fragile states and low levels of human

development: Two-thirds of countries from

Africa, including Sudan, Togo, Burundi, Uganda, Côte d’Ivoire, Cameroon, Comoros,

Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Central African

Republic, Afghanistan, Myanmar, Chad, Zimbabwe

and Guinea-Bissau.

high levels of human

development, medium stability:

A third of these countries are Latin

American/Caribbean (30.9%), including Argentina, Mexico,

Colombia, Panama, Cuba, Peru, Brazil and China.

medium levels of development and stability: A third of countres

(31.7%) from Africa and nearly a quarter from Asia (22%), including Morocco, Kenya, Senegal, Bolivia,

Honduras, Vietnam, India, Bhutan and the

Philippines.