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Dimondsconclusions.pptxWhy do some societies make disastrous decisions?
Failures of Group Decision-Making
Four factors related to the Failure of Group Decision-Making Failure to anticipate a problem before it actually arrives. Failure to perceive a problem when it does arrive.
Failure to try to solve a problem.
Unsuccessful attempt in trying to solve the problem
Society may not be familiar with the problem when it arrives Society may have "forgotten" about the eventFalse analogies. A situation might resemble another situation, but actually is different.
Phenomena may be imperceptible Distant managers/ decision-makers Slow trend disguised by wide up and down fluctuations a fast downward trend may be easier to recognize than a slower trend
Rational/self-interested behavior may interfere with solving group goals
Tragedy of the Commons
while it is in the best interests of everyone to refrain from using a resource, individuals have an incentive to exploit the resource
Interests of decision-making elite clash with the interests of society at large
Religious or cultural values may interfere with the actions needed to prevent the problem.
Clashes between long-term and short-term problem solving focus.
Crowd psychology
Groupthink
Psychological denial
Problem may beyond the societies' capabilities to solve
.Problem may be too expensive to solve.
Efforts to solve problems may be too little too late.
Diamond cautions against “environmental determinism”
