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Demonetization_RM_2.docx

Research Methods

Coursework 2

Candidate Name: - Sarah Aamir Inam

Candidate Student ID Number: - H00283904

Module Name: - Research Methods

Course Code: - C39RE

Lecturer/Tutor : - Dr. Esinath Ndiweni

Word Count: - 1812 (Excluding References)

Table of Contents

Details

Page #

· Working Title

1. Introduction

3

2. Research Philosophy

3

3. Data Collection Methods

5

4. Data Analysis Techniques

7

5. Ethical Issues and Considerations

8

6. Structure

9

7. References

11

Title

Evaluate the impact of the 2016 demonetization on middle-class Indian Investors

Introduction

The aim of this study was to examine how demonetization impacted the Indian stock markets and influenced investor behavior. This paper will highlight the systematic process to conduct the research and outline the methodological steps to be carried out.

Research Strategy

Research philosophy is termed as the process of “developing new knowledge” in a subject through individuals’ beliefs and assumptions (Saunders, Lewis and Thornhill, 2016). Easterby-Smith (2012) explains that a sound understanding of research philosophy helps in creating refined data. Every researcher has a different approach, strategy and perception when finding solutions to a problem (Altinay, Paraskevas and Jang, 2008). With an efficient research design several methodologies can be tested, allowing greater exploration into the topic (Thorpe, Jackson and Easterby-Smith, 2012). Lincoln and Guba (1985) stated that the research paradigm consists of three essential elements: epistemology, methodology and ontology. These elements reflect an individual’s values, beliefs and views about the world (Lincoln and Guba, 1985). Every issue requires an understanding of what is (ontology) and understanding what it means to know (epistemology) (Crotty, 1998).

Epistemology is the branch of philosophy concerned with assumptions made about the kind or nature of human knowledge (Richards, 2003). Cohen, Manion and Morrison (2007) define it as the “bases of knowledge – its nature and form, how it can be derived and communicated to others” (Cohen, Manion and Morrison, 2007). The epistemological approach can be divided into interpretivism and positivism. Positivism focuses on objectivity and evidence in gathering information, based on distinct facts and values (Spencer and Snape, 2003). Objectivity ensures that the researcher is cognizant of the boundaries within which they work to avoid any bias. On the contrary, interpretivism attaches importance to the nature of people’s character along with participation in their social and cultural life, whilst ignoring the methods of natural science (Elster, 2007). Interpretivist researchers study the meaning and motivations behind people’s actions and behaviors (Whitley, 1984).

Ontology is the study of being and existence (McQueen and McQueen, 2010). Richards (2003) defines ontology as the assumptions made regarding the structure of reality and what exists. It can be categorized into two parts, which are subjectivism and objectivism.

As per Bryman (2012), objectivism considers ‘social phenomena’s’ to be external factors, outside the influence of researchers. On the other hand, subjectivism argues that social actors can revise the external realities (Bryman, 2012). For this proposal, the subjective approach will be preferred that will allow in-depth analysis of the impact of demonetization on the BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange). The research will be conducted through a mixed-method approach, encompassing first an event study – which will be quantitative to determine stock market returns. The second stage will be using an interpretivist approach, by conducting an interview of middle-income investors in order to attain their perceptions of the experience. Secondary research will be conducted through examining historical data such as newspapers, official documents and stock price movements. This study adopts 2 philosophical approaches which are an interpretivist philosophy, because it investigates investor behavior in a subjective manner. Along with a positivist approach for the impact of demonetization on stock market behavior which is an objective approach.

Data Collection Methods

Researchers are moving towards using a mixed-method approach, in an attempt to expand the scope of their study and benefit from greater insight (Sandelowski, 2000). It is necessary to distinguish qualitative from quantitative methods when conducting research. Qualitative data will be gathered using interviews as it incorporates a narrative approach to data analysis, whereby an individual can describe the psyche behind their moral and ethical decisions (Kivunja and Kuyini, 2017). On the other hand, quantitative research methods involve numerical data and “quantification in collecting and analyzing data” and will be collected by the means of an event study (Bryman, 2012).

Demonetization took place on the 8th of November 2016 and severely impacted the stock markets. Event study approach monitors firms’ stock prices to measure the wealth effects of a particular event over a period of time (Maul and Schiereck, 2016). This study will examine the impact of the demonetization announcement on 30 companies listed on the BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange) over a 50-day event window. This methodology aims to evaluate if shareholders earned varying returns due to the occurrence of the 2016 demonetization in India. Key underlying assumptions when conducting this study are as follows:

· Assuming markets to be efficient, the impact of an event will be instantly reflected through share prices.

· The event is unforeseen, as in the case of the surprise announcement of demonetization on the 8th of November 2016.

· The event is considered in isolation, ignoring all other factors that may influence share prices (Sitthipongpanich, 2011).

The market return can be computed using the Market Model formula (which makes use of regression analysis) as follows:

Ri,t = αi + βi Rm,t + εi (Chauhan and Kaushik, 2017)

Rit = return for security i for day t

αi = the intercept

βi = Volatility of security

Rmt = Return on market at day t

εi = error term

However, it should be noted that markets might be inefficient with imperfect knowledge so events may be anticipated in advance. Overlapping of multiple events can also be problematic, as it will create biased stock returns (MacKinlay, 1997).

Alshenqeeti (2014) points out that the interactive nature of interviews provide for complete, clear answers and yield in-depth information about a certain topic or subject (Alshenqeeti, 2014). A semi-structured interview will be conducted on the middle-income investors to understand their perspectives and interpret the meaning of their described phenomena (Cassel and Symon, 2014). The semi-structured approach has some predetermined format, but is usually not rigid. It is more explorative with open-ended questions, giving way to greater interpretation (Blandford, Makri and Furniss, 2013). Despite being time-consuming, interviews are amongst the most used methods for extensive data analysis (Salvador, 2016). The flexibility of such interviews will allow us to benefit from greater understanding of the investors experiences. A drawback of this methodology is the effort undertaken to analyze and present the large amount of data gathered. Caution will be exercised in choosing a suitable sample size, which should be representative of the whole population (Newcomer, Hatry and Wholey, 2015). Interviews will be conducted on a sample of 30 middle-class Indian investors to understand investor behavior.

Secondary Data on the other hand involves reviewing previously gathered data for another primary purpose (Johnston, 2014). This method tends to be cost effective and convenient to users (Smith, 2008). Access to secondary data provides opportunities to researchers with inadequate funds, to collect reliable data (Hakim, 1982). However, it should be noted that the data was collected for another purpose and may not be applicable to the current scenario (Boslaugh, 2007).

Data Analysis Techniques

Qualitative data can be analyzed through varying methods, including Template and Thematic analysis. Thematic Analysis is a qualitative data collection method used to identify, analyze and report patterns (themes) within data (Braun and Clarke, 2006). It can be used to analyze interview transcripts and highlight the psychological state of the investors (Delaney, Egan and O’Connell, 2011). Detailed sets of data are organized to aid decision-making by researchers. However, the simplistic approach may threaten validity of the results and cause damage to readers (Javadi and Zarea, 2016).

Using template analysis, qualitative data gathered will be reorganized on the basis of pre-established codes. Coding refers to the systematic order through which information is categorized into groups based on themes and patterns (Saldaña, 2015). Priori codes are predetermined codes derived from key theoretical frameworks. The flexibility associated with template analysis provides freedom to researchers to adapt to the needs of different studies (King, 2019).

Event study methodology encompasses quantitative research in relation to investment management. Event studies require cross sectional regression analysis to measure the effects of announcements on exogenous variables (Eckbo, Maksimovic and Williams, 1990). Cross Sectional Analysis compares the abnormal returns earned to a firms characteristics, taking into consideration the economic effect of the event (Kothari and Warner, 2004). They are straightforward and easy to execute, but the results should be interpreted with caution (Campbell, Lo and MacKinlay, 2012).

Ethical Issues and Considerations

Ethics is defined as “the branch of philosophy concerned with the dynamics of decision-making between what is right and wrong” (Fouka and Mantzorou, 2011). Research ethics aims to protect individuals’ right to privacy, confidentiality and dignity, while avoiding any harm (Bresler, 1994). Armiger (1997) outlined that participants must be fully informed and voluntarily give their consent (Armiger, 1977). Burns and Grove (2005) stated that requesting intimate details of individuals’ lives could create discomfort. Researchers should aim to minimize the potential harm and ensure that the benefits outweigh the risks of the study (Burns and Grove, 2005).

Research data must uphold requirements of confidentially throughout the storage, analysis and publication stages, as investors will be volunteering sensitive information. Transparency is a key factor when conducting research to avoid falsification of facts and deceptive practices (Glesne, 2015). The interpersonal relationship between participants and researchers can also create ethical concerns and controversies (Eide and Kahn, 2008). Researcher’s behavior must demonstrate concern for participants’ privacy and dignity at all times (Social Research Association 2003). Participants also have the right to withdraw from the study at any time and withdraw any data they have provided (McLeod, 2015). An ethical clearance form should be filled, ensuring that no vulnerable groups are targeted and people over 18 are interviewed.

In relation to Indian investors, the ethical factors must be fully reviewed to ensure both researchers and participants adhere to the standards of respect, non-maleficence and justice, as required by the study (Aluwihare-Samaranayake, 2012).

Structure

Work Stage

Start Date

Duration

End Date

Introduction and research question

06-01-19

7

12-01-19

The topic aims and objectives

13-01-19

14

26-01-19

Literature research and readings

27-01-19

14

09-02-19

Preparing literature review draft

10-02-19

7

16-02-19

Collection of data

17-02-19

14

02-03-19

Further literature reading

03-03-19

7

09-03-19

Data Analysis Techniques

10-03-19

14

23-03-19

Collection and analysis of data

24-03-19

5

28-03-19

Ethical Issues

29-03-19

5

2-04-19

Final Edits

3-04-19

1

4-04-19

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Chapter 1 introduces the subject matter, demonetization and its effect on middle class Indian investors. It presents the research question, aim and objectives, and outlines the research gap to be filled through the study. Chapter 2 analyses historical data on implementation of demonetization in the past, across the globe. Literature review is conducted through reviewing journal articles, newspaper articles and academic sources. Chapter 3 used various research methodologies to demonstrate the nature of the study. It comprises of collection and analysis of data. Chapter 4 was concerned with interpretation of the results gathered from the research methods applied. Chapter 5 poses as a conclusion, providing recommendations and suggestions to the investors, regarding investment strategies. The study will end with relevant references to authenticate the work of the researcher and provide evidence to readers.

References

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