STATISTICS

QMB4680 – Operations Analysis, Section U01, Spring 2019

Please use the following data to prepare your forecast report for the Make-To-Inventory demand of the five models of planes. I am providing you the equivalent of two years’ worth of data if we think of these periods as quarters. Periods 1-4 are the first year; periods 5-8 are the second year. Periods 9-12 are the four periods of the actual game.

7 9 10 12 13 16 14 18 8 9 7 8 5 3 2 6 12 10 10 14

I had originally thought to use five different locations but have determined that we will decrease the complexity and just use one. So, assume that all of the planes that are demanded from inventory will be sold from only one central distribution center.

You should take the data and, using the methods found in chapter 3 on Forecasting of “Operations and Supply Chain Management, The Core”, produce a forecast for what your team believes will be the market demand in period 9 for each of the five models. If you graph the demand in Excel, you will notice that some are increasing in demand, some are decreasing in demand, some may be seasonal, and some may be only subject to common cause variation and appear fairly stable.

You should experiment with the different forecast models such as moving averages, weighted moving averages, exponential smoothing, linear regression, and seasonal factor forecasting to see which method produces the lowest MAD for each plane. The same method will not work for all planes! Then, using the best method for each plane, forecast the demand for that plane for period 9.

Your report should discuss:

1. Which method was shown to be best for each plane?

2. What was the MAD associate with each method?

3. What is the forecast for each plane for period 9?

· The forecast for each plane this period is to grow until inventory reaches a peak then greatly decrease in growth to then increase in growth again.

4. Graphs from Excel copy/pasted into your word document if possible.

5. Appropriate discussion.

No more than two pages please.

Forecast of Period 9

Per 1 Paperwing Gull Lark Mockingjay Nimbus 1 22 7 4 8 Per 2 Paperwing Gull Lark Mockingjay Nimbus 3 20 8 2 9 Per 3 Paperwing Gull Lark Mockingjay Nimbus 3 21 7 4 8 Per 4 Paperwing Gull Lark Mockingjay Nimbus 4 15 9 10 10 Per 5 Paperwing Gull Lark Mockingjay Nimbus 6 16 6 4 10 Per 6 Paperwing Gull Lark Mockingjay Nimbus 6 13 8 1 10 Per 7 Paperwing Gull Lark Mockingjay Nimbus 7 12 7 3 11 Per 8 Paperwing Gull Lark Mockingjay Nimbus 9 12 6 10 13 Per 9 Paperwing Gull Lark Mockingjay Nimbus 7 13 8 5 12 Per 10 Paperwing Gull Lark Mockingjay Nimbus 9 16 9 3 10 Per 11 Paperwing Gull Lark Mockingjay Nimbus 10 14 7 2 10 Per 12 Paperwing Gull Lark Mockingjay Nimbus 12 18 8 6 14