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The Living, Moving and Travel Behaviour of the Growing American Solo: Implications for Cities Devajyoti Deka
[Paper first received, November 2012; in final form, March 2013]
Abstract
Between 1930 and 2010 the share of single-person, or solo, households in the US increased from 6 per cent to almost 28 per cent, whereas the share of married- couple households decreased from 79 per cent to 49 per cent. Yet solo households have received little attention in urban planning and transport research. Given the significant increase of solo households in US cities, this study identifies the distinc- tive dwelling, moving and travel characteristics of the American solo households, and examines the reasons for their attraction to cities. It uses historical data from census Public Use Microdata Samples and recent national data from the American Housing Survey and the National Household Travel Survey. Descriptive statistics, basic statistical tests, binary logit models and Heckman sample selection models are used to examine various relationships. Some of the transport-related and environ- mental implications of the findings are discussed.
Introduction
In his recent book, Going Solo: The Extraordinary Rise and Surprising Appeal to Living Alone, sociologist Eric Klinenberg (2012) brings to the fore the growing ten- dency among American adults to live in single-person, or solo, households. For the first time in centuries, Klinenberg men- tions, the majority of American adults are now single and approximately 31 million
adults, or one of every seven, live in a solo household. From Klinenberg’s contention that the US is simply following a pattern experienced for a longer duration by other advanced countries like Japan, Germany, Canada, France and Australia, it can be anticipated that the growth of solo house- holds in the US will continue in the fore- seeable future.
Devajyoti Deka is in the Alan M. Voorhees Transport Centre, Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, 33 Livingston Avenue, New Brunswick, New Jersey 08901, USA. Email: [email protected].
Article 51(4) 634–654, March 2014
0042-0980 Print/1360-063X Online ! 2013 Urban Studies Journal Limited
DOI: 10.1177/0042098013492233 at LOYOLA MARYMOUNT UNIV on January 8, 2016usj.sagepub.comDownloaded from
Given the significant growth of solo households in the US over the past decades and its potential impact on urban areas in the future, this paper seeks to provide a better understanding about the distinctive characteristics of the American solo house- holds. It analyses the potential reasons for their growth in cities, compares their travel and moving patterns with adults from mar- ried-couple households and discusses the implications of their growth for urban America. The paper is prepared with the pre- mise that understanding the characteristics of the solo households and the reasons for their distinctive living, travel and moving patterns is beneficial for urban planners, transport planners and policy-makers.
Understanding the growth of solo households in US cities is important for several reasons. First, given the massive loss of population in central cities over the past decades, the growth of any type of house- hold and jobs in cities could be perceived as a positive sign. Between 1950 and 1990, the proportion of metropolitan residents in central cities decreased from 57 per cent to 37 per cent, whereas the proportion of jobs decreased from 70 per cent to 45 per cent (Mieszkowski and Mills, 1993). Therefore, the apparent attractiveness of cities for solo households, especially working adults from solo households, provides a glimmer of hope about potential recovery of US cities. Secondly, as land is more compactly devel- oped in central cities than suburban areas, continued growth of solo households in central cities can be expected to create a more sustainable metropolitan land devel- opment pattern in the future. Thirdly, solo households exhibit travel patterns that are more conducive to environmentally sus- tainable cities than the travel patterns of two-earner households. As shown in this paper and other studies, solo households own fewer cars and workers from solo households commute shorter distances,
spend less time commuting and use auto- mobiles less frequently. Considering that the increase in the use of the automobile has often been attributed to the growth of two-earner households (Cervero, 1989; Downs, 1992), the replacement of two- earner households by solo households could potentially help to reduce society’s dependence on the automobile and pro- mote the use of public transit.
This paper focuses on the US as a whole instead of specific regions or cities of the country. Hence, data from several sources are used at the national level and city-spe- cific comparisons are avoided. All compari- sons in the paper are made between adult persons from solo households and married- couple households. By definition, married couples are those with two spouses living together, whereas solo households are com- posed of only one adult. Single parents are not included in any comparison because few people potentially make a choice between remaining solo and getting married with the expectation of becoming a single parent. Although many elderly persons live in solo households, the paper places a greater emphasis on working adults because of their potential impact on the economic wellbeing of cities today and in the future.
Data and Methods
This study uses data from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS), the 2009 American Housing Survey (AHS) national sample, and Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) from several censuses and the 2010 American Community Survey (ACS). For analytical purposes, it uses descriptive sta- tistics, basic statistical tests, binary logit models and the Heckman sample selection model.
The following section, or the third sec- tion of the paper, uses historical PUMS
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data from 1930 to 2010 to demonstrate the growth of solo households and the labour force, and to compare the relative attrac- tiveness of cities for adults from married- couple households and solo households. The characteristics of the solo households in the US are explored by using binary logit models with 2010 ACS PUMS data in the section following the literature review on the distinctive characteristics of solo house- holds. In the subsequent section, compari- sons are made between solo households and adults from married-couple house- holds regarding their living and travel char- acteristics. For this purpose, descriptive statistics from the 2009 NHTS and three Heckman sample selection models with data from the 2009 AHS national sample are used.
The Heckman sample selection model (Heckman, 1976, 1979) was used because it has clear advantages over ordinary least squares and binary logit or probit models. It uses a system of equations to jointly predict the probability of selection (for example, the decision to be solo) and the outcome vari- able (for example, commuting trip distance or time). Since the model predicts an out- come variable on the basis of the probability of being selected into a group, the predicted outcome can be interpreted as the result of self-selection into the group. Thus the model has a causal element that is absent in ordinary least squares models. A number of studies in transport have used the Heckman model, including Cooke and Ross (1999), Deka (2002) and Vance and Iovanna (2007). Studies in other fields have used it to com- pare SAT scores for coached and uncoached students (Briggs, 2004), treatment duration for individuals treated by two different drugs (Leslie and Ghomrawi, 2008), profits for family-controlled and non-family firms (Maury, 2006) and child-abuse reporting cases for Black and White populations (Ards et al., 1998).
The analysis of travel characteristics of solo households is followed by a comparison of the moving behaviour of solo and mar- ried-couple households. Three binary logit models were used with 2009 AHS data to make these comparisons. Additional infor- mation about the specific models has been provided in the sections where they have been used.
The Growth of American Solo Households and the Potential Reasons for Their Growth
To verify Klinenberg’s observations about the growth of solo households, especially their growth in cities, historical census PUMS data were obtained from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (Ruggles et al., 2010). The changing shares of solo households as well as population and labour force from solo households, obtained from this source, are presented in Figure 1. As evident, the share of solo households increased from 6 per cent to almost 28 per cent between 1930 and 2010. During this period, the share of married- couple households decreased from 79 per cent to 49 per cent. Because of the presence of children in non-solo households, the increase in the share of population in solo households is less substantial than the increase in the share of solo households. However, the share of labour force from solo households has been growing more rapidly than population.
Consistent with Klinenberg’s assertion about the growth of solo households in cities, the figure shows that the share of solo households, population and labour force in central cities is significantly higher than the country as a whole. While the share of solo female labour force in central cities has been higher than male labour force since 1930, the share of solo male
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labour force in central cities has increased considerably since 1970. As of 2010, the share of solo male and female labour force in central cities was 15 per cent and 16 per cent respectively.
Klinenberg identifies economic develop- ment, the welfare state and cultural change as the primary reasons for the growth of solo households. He contends that the rising status of women, new communica- tions technologies, mass urbanisation and increasing longevity contributed to the trend. An additional reason for the growth of solo households in the US could be the diminishing attractiveness of marriage. As Warren and Tyagi (2003) emphasised, mar- riage for many working adults has become a trap that leaves them with less savings for the rainy day compared with solo households.
Since women have historically contribu- ted more to the growth of solo households in cities than men, Kleinenberg’s assertion about the rising status of women as a
reason for the growth of solo households requires further discussion. Available data on women’s education and earnings seem to provide some support to the claim that women’s status has risen in recent decades. In 1960, women received 35 per cent of the bachelor’s degrees in the US, whereas they received 58 per cent of the degrees in 2004 (Buchmann and DiPrete, 2006). The 2010 ACS PUMS data for persons in the labour force 25 or older show that 51 per cent of women from solo households have a bache- lor’s degree or higher level of education, whereas 47 per cent of women from mar- ried-couple households and 45 per cent of men from both types of household have that distinction. Thus women from solo households do have a certain level of advan- tage in education over women from mar- ried-couple households and men.
The increasing level of education for women has been accompanied by an increase in earnings. Although women from
Figure 1. Share of solo households, persons and labour force in the US, excluding group quarters, 1930–2010. Source: estimated from 1930–2000 censuses and 2010 ACS PUMS data.
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both solo and married-couple households still earn substantially less than male work- ers, the increase in educational attainment among women has reduced the gender gap in earnings. That earned income for women has increased in recent years is evident from Figure 2, which shows the average earnings of persons age 25 and older from solo and married-couple households. Due to the 2007–09 recession, the earnings for all per- sons in the labour force stagnated in 2010. Yet a comparison between 1990 and 2010 shows that the gap between male and female earnings decreased, in all places as well as in central cities, for both married- couple households and solo households. Although the earnings for the female labour force from married-couple households are rapidly increasing, consistent with their respective educational attainment, women from solo households continue to earn more.
Taking a cue from economists who believe that marriage is an economic insti- tution and that the decisions to marry and divorce can be explained by utility theory (for example, Becker, 1974; Becker et al., 1977), one can argue that, due to increasing earnings, women today feel less compelled to marry for security than in the past. Becker’s theory suggests that both husband and wife benefited from production effi- ciencies due to the division of labour in tra- ditional households, but, as Isen and Stevenson (2010) point out, these produc- tion efficiencies have disappeared over time due to technological advances. The decrease in the production efficiencies can be expected to reduce the motivation to marry for both men and women, thereby leading to the growth of solo households.
Another rationale for an individual to go solo is the solo’s ability to move quickly whenever desirable employment opportu- nities arise. Their ability to move could potentially allow them to earn a higher
salary in the job market. At an age of quick job turnover, solo workers certainly have an advantage.
What brings solos to cities? According to Klinenberg, educated solo men and women are increasingly flocking to large cities of the US to live independent lives. Klinenberg emphasised the liberal culture as a reason for their concentration in cities. However, as shown in Figure 2, an earnings differential also makes cities more attractive to solos than married- couple households. While men from mar- ried-couple households earn nearly the same in central cities as elsewhere, both men and women from solo households earn far more by living in central cities. Since men have continued to remain the primary earners of married-couple house- holds, the attractiveness of central cities for these households is lower than solo households.
The Distinctive Characteristics of Solo Households in Past Studies
A number of studies that compared the resi- dential location and travel patterns of differ- ent types of household provide evidence of the distinctive nature of solo households. In a study for the San Francisco Bay Area, Bhat and Guo (2007) found that individuals from solo households are less likely to own cars and more likely to live in areas with high street density. In a study for the Louisville, Kentucky–Indiana metropolitan area, Scott and Horner (2008) found that persons from solo households live in areas with greater access to activities, especially commercial activities within walking distance. Similarly, Brownstone and Golob (2009) found in a California study that, compared with others, solo households locate more often in high- density areas, drive fewer miles and con- sume less fuel.
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Studies from other countries provide more extensive evidence about solo house- holds. In a British study, Dargay and Hanly (2007) found that solo workers are less likely to commute by automobile than others. Noting that workers from solo households spend less time commuting, Vandersmissen et al. (2003) concluded in a study for Québec City, Canada, that devoid of family constraints, solo workers have a greater opportunity than others to locate close to work. A study by Howley (2009) found that solo households are less likely than others to move out of a central-city area of Dublin. Eluru et al. (2009) found in a study for Zurich, Switzerland, that solo persons are more likely to move for educa- tion and employment compared with per- sons from multiple-person households.
Other studies have identified additional travel and transport attributes that distin- guish solo households from others. For example, Roorda et al. (2010) found that persons from solo households make more
trips per person compared with persons from married-couple households in several Canadian cities. Analysis conducted by Arentze, et al. (2005) in the Netherlands showed that solo individuals make more shopping trips than others. However, as noted by Newsome et al. (1998), solo indi- viduals often have to make more trips than individuals from multiple-person house- holds because of their sole responsibility of household activities.
To the detriment of solo households, sev- eral studies have shown that married-couple households can save significantly because of economies of scale generated by the sharing of goods and services within the household. For example, Lazear and Michael (1980) showed that married couples have an advan- tage over solo households because they save substantially on the consumption of shelter, food and other goods because of sharing. Similarly, Nelson (1988) found that larger households generate more savings in the consumption of shelter, food, household
Figure 2. Personal earned income in constant 1999 dollars for persons in the labour force age 25 and over in the US, excluding group quarters, 1990–2010. Source: estimated from 1990 and 2000 censuses and 2010 ACS PUMS data.
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furnishings and transport compared with smaller households. A number of other stud- ies have provided additional insights about the economies of scale due to sharing of goods and services by household members (Deaton and Paxson, 1998; Gan and Vernon, 2003; Fernández-Villaverde and Krueger, 2002; Browning et al. 2006). These studies leave little doubt that solo households sacri- fice the benefits of sharing housing space and household goods and services. For the growth of solo households, countervailing factors must offset these sacrifices.
Who are the Solo in America?
Although Klinenberg cites a number of potential reasons for the growth of solo households, his objective was to describe a phenomenon rather than to provide a sta- tistical discourse. This study takes a more methodological approach. To identify the factors associated with the likelihood of living in a solo household, three binary logit models were used with 1 per cent PUMS data for the US from the 2010 ACS. The results are presented in Table 1. In model 1, the likelihood of living in a solo household is predicted by including all individuals in the dataset excluding those below age 25 and people living in group quarters. In model 2, the data are further restricted to workers in the 25–64 age group to examine if their likelihood of living in solo households differed from the likelihood for all individuals. This model was included especially in view of the large proportion of persons in the labour force from solo households in cities. Model 3 is more elegant than model 1 and model 2 in that it combines the first two models and it can be used to show the relationships between the dependent variable and the independent variables separately for work- ers and non-workers. In this model, all variables are interacted with employment
status except for the dummy variable on employment.
Living in a solo household is the depen- dent variable in all three models, which was coded 1 for persons living in a solo house- hold and 0 for others. The independent vari- ables in the models are the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the indi- viduals in the dataset. In addition, a dummy variable on central city was included to examine the extent to which central-city living is associated with being solo.
The results of the three models in Table 1 are consistent with each other in terms of the signs of the coefficients and their statis- tical significance. Although many other characteristics of individuals are associated with the likelihood of living in a solo household, the three models show that ageing contributes to the likelihood more than other characteristics. This is more evi- dent in model 1 and model 3 than in model 2 because in these two models the persons older than age 65 are also included. Model 1 shows that a person who is 85 or older is almost 900 per cent more likely, and a person between age 75 and 84 is almost 400 per cent more likely, to live in a solo house- hold compared with a 25–34-year-old person (e2.265 = 9.63 and e1.609 = 4.997). Model 1 also shows that being female and being African American increases the likeli- hood of living in a solo household, whereas being Hispanic, a foreign-born immigrant, or a non-English speaker decreases the like- lihood. The latter results are consistent with the notion that immigrants are more family-oriented than non-immigrants. Consistent with Klinenberg’s assertion about the growth of solo households in cities, both models show a positive associa- tion between central-city living and being solo. Persons with personal earned income between $40,000 and $60,000 are the most likely to live in solo households, whereas persons with lower and higher earnings are
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less likely. Higher education increases the likelihood of living in a solo household, although the influence of higher education is higher for workers than the general pop- ulation. According to model 2, a worker with a bachelor’s degree is about 21 per cent more likely to live in a solo household compared with a person with an associate degree or some college education. For the general population, being female increases the likelihood of living in a solo household by 27 per cent, but for workers aged 25–64, women have a 6 per cent lower likelihood of living in a solo household. Further exam- ination of the data reveals that a reason for this discrepancy is that a far larger number of elderly widows live in solo households compared with widowers. In male solo households, 34 per cent are divorced, 42 per cent have never married and 14 per cent are widowed, whereas in female solo households, 29 per cent are divorced, 25 per cent have never married and an over- whelming 40 per cent are widowed (poten- tially due to women’s greater longevity than men). In sum, although Klinenberg’s asser- tions are mostly validated by the analysis, the significant likelihood of living in a solo household by the elderly suggests that these individuals are being solo because of their circumstances instead of going solo on their own volition. Yet the analysis shows that higher education, a middle-class income and central-city residence are positively associated with the likelihood of living in a solo household.
The Distinctive Travel and Living Characteristics of the American Solo
The characteristics of solo households found in the literature pertaining to other developed countries can also be observed in the US. Basic statistics from the 2009
NHTS, presented in Table 2, show that men from solo households, on average, travel a significantly shorter distance and spend less time commuting to work than men from married-couple households. Solo women commute a shorter distance than women from married-couple households, but spend an almost identical amount of time commuting. Solo persons’ higher pro- pensity to use public transit and walk, and a lower propensity to use personal vehicles, is evident for both men and women. As expected, a far smaller proportion of solo households own vehicles compared with married-couple households and the average number of vehicles owned by solo house- holds is also smaller than married-couple households. Solo women have a lower pro- pensity to own vehicles than solo men as well as men and women from married- couple households. Consistent with other studies, American solo men and women make a greater proportion of trips for shop- ping/errands and personal business/obliga- tions compared with men and women from married-couple households.
The travel patterns of American solo households are potentially associated with their dwelling characteristics. As evident in Table 2, less than half of the solo men and women live in detached single houses, whereas around 75 per cent of married couples live in such dwellings. Almost 54 per cent of solo men and 45 per cent of the solo women live in rented dwellings, com- pared with about a quarter of the men and women from married-couple households. By living in rented homes, solo households can minimise their commuting distance and time, although they spend more on shelter than married-couple households on a per-earner basis. The 2009 US Consumer Expenditure Survey data analysed by the author shows that the average per-earner shelter expenditure for an adult in a mar- ried-couple household is $1394 for a
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Table 2. Comparison of travel and dwelling characteristics of persons aged 25–64 from solo households and married-couple households in the US
Couple Solo
Male Female Male Female
Mean trip distance (miles)a
All trip purposes 13.08 9.02 10.09 7.18 Work trips only 14.87 10.22 10.93 8.64
Mean trip duration (minutes)a
All trip purposes 22.14 18.17 20.57 18.05 Work trips only 27.09 21.78 22.69 21.55
Mode used for all trip purposes (percentages)b
Car, truck, van and SUV 87.2 87.2 77.4 80.6 Public transit (excluding taxi, ferry, school bus and inter-regional transit)
1.5 1.6 4.2 4.1
Walk 8.7 10.0 14.0 13.5 Bicycle 1.0 0.3 2.2 0.2 Other 1.6 1.0 2.2 1.6 Total 100 100 100 100
Mode used for work trip purposes (percentages)b
Car, truck, van and SUV 91.5 93.9 85.8 88.5 Public transit (excluding taxi, ferry, school bus and inter-regional transit)
3.1 2.8 6.1 7.0
Walk 2.3 2.4 3.9 3.7 Bicycle 1.2 0.2 1.5 0.2 Other 1.9 0.6 2.7 0.7 Total 100 100 100 100
Trip purpose (percentages)b
Home 33.8 33.6 32.7 31.1 Work 20.4 12.1 18.8 17.0 Shopping/errands 15.9 19.2 20.6 22.4 Social/recreational 10.1 10.3 11.6 10.0 Family personal business/ obligations
2.9 3.4 3.4 4.7
Meals 7.2 6.5 7.3 6.9 Other purposes 9.6 14.9 5.6 7.9 Total 100 100 100 100
Mean number of vehicles in householda
2.40c 2.37c 1.28c 1.02c
Percentage of households with at least one vehiclea
97.6 97.0 86.7 85.0
(continued)
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quarter, whereas the expenditure for a solo male is $1660 and for a solo female is $1561 (US Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2010).
Although the data presented in Table 2 suggest that the travel characteristics of the solo are environmentally more sustainable than individuals from married-couple households, they do not show that their distinctive travel characteristics are linked to their decision to be solo. A model that takes into account this link is the Heckman sample selection model.
The Heckman model was used to com- pare the commuting time and distance of workers with the 2009 AHS national sample data. The dataset was restricted to persons aged 25–64 belonging to solo households or married-couple households in urbanised areas. Persons from other types of house- hold, such as single-parent households, were omitted so that comparisons could be made directly between solo households and married-couple households. The results of the two models are presented in Table 3 (models 1 and 2). The models were esti- mated by using both STATA and SAS to ensure that the results are identical.
The Heckman model consists of two components: a selection component and an outcome component. In addition to the coefficients and standard errors of the vari- ables, the model generates two critical para- meter estimates: sigma (s) and rho (r). While sigma is the adjusted standard error of the outcome model, rho represents the correlation between the errors of the two models and indicates whether the factors affecting selection are associated with the outcome. For example, if the selection group is solo individuals, and rho is statistically sig- nificant and negative, it would indicate that the outcome variable, commuting time or distance, for solos is shorter than individuals from married-couple households because of the selection effect.
In addition to the models on commuting distance and time, a Heckman sample selec- tion probit model estimating the likelihood of commuting by automobile is presented in Table 2 (model 3). Similar to the typical Heckman model with a continuous outcome variable, the binary outcome variable of this model is predicted on the basis of a selection component. The outcome component of the
Table 2. (Continued)
Couple Solo
Male Female Male Female
Percentage living in rented homea
24.4 26.9 53.6 45.1
Dwelling type (percentages)b
Detached single house 76.4 74.8 45.3 48.3 Row house or townhouse 12.2 13.5 40.5 40.3 Other housing types 11.3 11.7 14.2 11.4 Total 100 100 100 100
aSolo male and female are different from married-couple men at the 5 per cent significance level on t-test. bDifferences are significant at the 5 per cent level on chi-squared test. cAccording to 2010 ACS PUMS, these figures are 2.33, 2.28, 1.15 and 0.97 respectively. Source: estimated from the 2009 National Household Transportation Survey.
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three models, measuring commuting dis- tance, commuting time and the likelihood of automobile use, is shown in the top part of Table 3, whereas the selection component, measuring the likelihood of being solo, is shown in the bottom part. In the selection component of all three models, the depen- dent variable is a dummy variable (solo = 1, else 0), whereas the dependent variables in the outcome component of model 1 and model 2 are continuous (distance and time) and binary in model 3 (automobile use = 1, else 0).
The selection component of the three models, which predicts the likelihood of being solo, is consistent with the model results in Table 1, where the likelihood of being solo was predicted with 2010 ACS PUMS data. Similar to the models in Table 1, the selection components of the models in Table 3 show that the likelihood of being solo is higher for central-city residents, African Americans, highly educated persons and persons with moderate earnings, while it is lower for Hispanic persons, immi- grants and persons in mid-life. The out- come component of the three models also shows results consistent with expectation. According to the distance model (model 1), women, renters and central-city residents commute a shorter distance, whereas African Americans, Hispanic persons, per- sons living in large dwellings and persons from households with a larger number of vehicles commute a longer distance. These results are consistent with the results in Crane (2007), where distance was estimated with a random-effects generalised least squares model using past AHS data.
The commute time model (model 2) is similar to the distance model for all vari- ables except the number of vehicles in the household. Although the number of vehicles has a positive association with distance and a negative association with commute time, both results are consistent with expectation
because vehicles can reduce travel time. The only variable that was not statistically signif- icant in either of the models was the variable on movers.
The negative sign of a statistically signifi- cant rho in the commuting distance and time models indicates that the selection into the solo group decreases commute distance and time. By using the parameter estimates of the two models, it can be estimated that an average solo person commutes 3.2 miles and 3.4 minutes less than individuals from married-couple households.
An additional variable, travel distance, was included in the probit model on auto- mobile use for commuting (model 3 in Table 3) because mode choice widely varies by distance. The variable on moving was excluded because it could not be theorised why or how moving would affect mode choice. Although fewer variables are statisti- cally significant in this model compared with the models on commuting distance and time, the parameter estimates are gener- ally consistent with expectation, as they show that central-city residents and African Americans are less likely to commute by automobile, whereas persons from house- holds with a large number of vehicles and persons living in larger dwellings are more likely to do so. As expected, individuals making longer trips are more likely to use an automobile for commuting. Most impor- tantly, the highly significant negative rho indicates that persons from solo households are less likely to use an automobile than per- sons from married-couple households because of a selection effect. According to the model results, the automobile usage rate for commuting for an average solo person is 4 per cent lower than that for an average person from a married-couple household. In sum, the models on commuting distance, commuting time and automobile use for commuting, estimated with AHS data, are consistent with the statistics provided in
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Table 2 from the 2009 NHTS. The models provide further evidence that the travel pat- terns of solo households are environmen- tally more sustainable than the travel patterns of persons from married-couple households.
The structure of the Heckman model also provides some insights about the relation- ship between being solo, living in central cities and having more sustainable commu- tes. The selection component of the model in Table 3 shows that the solos are more likely to live in central cities and the outcome com- ponent shows that, by living in cities, they commute a shorter distance and use the auto- mobile less often for commuting. The selection and outcome components together indicate that the higher propensity of the solo house- holds to live in central cities adds to their pro- pensity to commute a shorter distance and use an automobile less often. However, living in central cities is one of many reasons for their observed travel patterns.
The Moving behaviour of the American Solo
It can be hypothesised that solo persons dis- play more sustainable travel characteristics because: they have a greater ability to move; and, they have a greater concern about job proximity than acquiring larger housing space compared with married-couple house- holds. Solo households can be expected to have a greater ability and propensity to move because they have no constraints related to other persons in the household, such as spouse’s employment or children’s school. Because they do not benefit from sharing housing space, solo households can also be expected to have a lower propensity to move in order to acquire larger dwelling units. It can be further hypothesised that their lower attraction for housing space is accompanied by a greater attraction for
proximity to work because they are the sole earners in household with greater time con- straints than an average adult from a mar- ried-couple household. To test three specific hypotheses—that solo households move more often, move less to acquire larger housing units and move more for greater proximity to work—statistical models were used with the 2009 AHS data.
The AHS inquires whether a respondent’s household moved within the past 12 months. The responses to this question were used to examine whether solo households move more than married-couple house- holds. Those who moved are subsequently asked by the AHS the reasons for their move. The response categories ‘‘needed a larger house or apartment’’ and ‘‘to be closer to work/school/other’’ were used to examine the attraction of solo households for housing space and proximity to work. The restriction of the dataset to age 25–64 is expected to eliminate most of those who moved for greater proximity to school. Among the movers from married couple- households, 15 per cent men and 13 per cent women aged 25–64 reported moving for a larger dwelling, but only 3 per cent men and 4 per cent women from solo households mentioned doing so. In con- trast, 7 per cent men and 8 per cent women from married-couple households men- tioned moving to be closer to work/school/ other, compared with 10 per cent men and 9 per cent women from solo households. Since these differences may be because of other characteristics of the individuals, the relationship between household type and moving was examined by using binary logit models to control for variations in these characteristics. Sample-selection probit models, which would estimate the probabil- ity of being solo first and use the probabil- ities to predict moving, were considered inappropriate because moving, the outcome
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variable, refers to the past. Being associative, binary logit models do not involve this con- ceptual problem, although their results cannot necessarily be interpreted as causal.
Results from three binary logit models are presented in Table 4. In model 1, the dependent variable is a dummy variable on moving, which was coded 1 for movers and 0 for non-movers. In model 2, where the coefficients were obtained with data from movers only, the dummy dependent variable indicates whether a household moved to acquire a larger dwelling. Those who moved to acquire larger dwelling were coded 1 and the other movers were coded 0. Similarly, in model 3, the dummy dependent variable was coded 1 for those who moved for greater proximity to work/school/other, and other movers were coded 0.
As expected, model 1 shows that solo men and women are more likely to move than adult men and women from married- couple households. According to the model results, men and women from solo house- holds are 30 per cent and 29 per cent more likely to move in a 12-month period com- pared with adult men and women from married-couple households (e0.262 = 1.30 and e0.257 = 1.29). The model also shows that younger adults and persons with lower incomes are more likely to move compared with older adults and persons with higher incomes. Level of education does not seem to influence the likelihood of moving to a great extent, except that individuals with the lowest level of education are less likely to move than others. Consistent with expec- tation, having children reduces the likeli- hood of moving. The negative association between the number of household vehicles and moving can be interpreted as a trade- off between transport cost and moving because greater mobility using vehicles can reduce the need for moving.
Fewer independent variables are statisti- cally significant in model 2 and model 3
than in model 1, but both provide the expected results. The coefficients of model 2 show that solo men and solo women respec- tively, are 75 per cent and 67 per cent less likely to move to acquire a larger dwelling unit compared with adults from married- couple households (1-e-1.399 = 0.75 and 1-e-1.123 = 0.67). Model 3 shows that both solo men and solo women are more likely to move for greater proximity to work com- pared with adults from married-couple households. However, only the variable on solo men has a confidence level of 95 per cent, whereas the variable on solo women has a confidence level of 87 per cent. The model shows that men and women from solo households are 34 per cent and 27 per cent more likely respectively to move for job proximity compared with adults from married-couple households. Model 3 also shows that younger adults and individuals with a high level of education are far more likely to move for job proximity compared with others. Overall, the model results are consistent with the notion that adults from married-couple households are more inter- ested in acquiring larger dwelling space, whereas solo households are more con- cerned about job proximity. The lower con- cern for larger housing space and a greater concern for job proximity seemingly lead to a more sustainable living and commuting behaviour by the solo.
Summary of the Findings and Implications
The growth of solo households and workers can be perceived as a sign of recovery for American central cities. A lower propensity to live in detached single homes and a greater propensity to live close to work, walk and use public transport make them more attractive to cities than two-earner households. To the benefit of themselves
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SOLO HOUSEHOLDS IN THE US 651
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and their employers, they can move more freely than married couples to take advan- tage of employment opportunities.
This research showed that, in addition to ageing, the increase in education and earn- ings of women could be a reason for the growth of solo households. By living in cen- tral cities, solo workers benefit more than the traditional bread-winners from married- couple households. This research further showed that solo households are more likely to move for job proximity and less likely to move to acquire large dwelling units com- pared with married-couple households. Solo households have been able to bear the excess expenses on shelter and transport so far because of an earnings advantage, but if their costs increase relative to their earnings, the growth of solo households may slow down. For the continued growth of solo households in cities, there will have to be a continued increase in earnings, stabilisation of housing and transport costs, or both. Their earnings will increase if jobs increase because of higher demand for labour.
Although solo households have so far exhibited living and travel patterns that are conducive to environmentally sustainable cities, there is no guarantee that they will continue to exhibit these patterns. For example, despite their higher propensity to use public transit, according to PUMS data, the share of transit commuting trips by 25–64-year-old female solo workers decreased from 9.6 per cent to 7.8 per cent between 1990 and 2010, while the share for solo male workers decreased from 6.5 per cent to 6.2 per cent. During this period, average commuting time by transit for solo female workers increased from 40 minutes to almost 46 minutes, while the time for solo male workers increased from 39 min- utes to 45 minutes. The decrease in transit usage and increase in transit commuting
time were accompanied by an increase in the average number of vehicles owned by both solo females (from 0.90 to 0.97) and solo men (from 1.13 to 1.15).
To provide better incentives to solo house- holds, planners should address local public transport needs. Although solo workers are still far more likely to commute by transit and spend less time commuting than workers from married-couple households, if the quality of transit service deteriorates, the commuting pat- terns of solo workers could potentially become less environmentally friendly.
Planners should also be concerned about the long-term consequences of the growth of solo households in cities. Although the living and commuting patterns of solo households are more sustainable than those of married- couple households, many older adults are solo because of their spouse’s death, divorce, or separation. In the absence of other persons in the household to take care of their travel needs, the older adults from solo households require special attention from society. Many elderly solos need special transport services. When today’s young solos become elderly in future decades, the need for these services will only increase.
Funding
This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial or not- for-profit sectors.
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