Decision Analysis

ACTIVITY BRIEF FOR ASSESSMENT 1

ACADEMIC YEAR 2021 – 2022 - FALL

Course BBA312 – Decision Analysis (2CH/3ECTS)

Instructor Paulo Azevedo

Participation in all assessment activities stated in this document is required. An overall course total of 70

points is required to pass the course. Due dates and times are always in Geneva time.

Assessment 1

Description Due date and time

Weight of course total

Task 1.1: Discussion concerning main elements of decision process

Assessment type: Discussion forum

Description: Given a description of a decision problem, students will discuss and define the goal and the scope of the problem, as well as a few feasible alternatives and at least one measure of the quality of the possible outcomes.

For further details of this assessment task, please consult the activity description on the relevant week of the course site.

18/10/2021 14:00 5%

Task 1.2: Quiz on decision making under uncertainty

Assessment type: Quiz

Description: Students will complete quiz concerning the different decision criteria in problems involving uncertainty.

For further details of this assessment task, please consult the activity description on the relevant week of the course site.

08/11/2021 14:00 5%

Main task

Task 1.3: Midterm assessment

Assessment type: Written assignment

Description: Students will provide a detailed description of a complex business problem (real or imaginary), and provide the framework to deal with this problem using proper decision analysis.

See sections below for further details.

15/11/2021 14:00 30%

IN STR UCT ION S

Main task

Based on a single decision problem, students should write a report that addresses the following points:

1. Describe a complex business decision problem. The problem may be real or imaginary (don’t forget to

include appropriate references if you’re using a real problem). You must provide relevant context -

why is the decision important, why is the decision process taking place at this time, etc.

2. Define and provide a reasonably detailed description of:

• the goal and scope of the decision process;

• at least two feasible alternatives;

• at least one measure or metric for the quality of the decision process outcome.

3. Describe relevant sources of uncertainty and how these may affect the decision process - is

uncertainty easy to quantify?

4. Describe possible sources of risk in the context of this decision problem.

FORMAT

Your submission must meet the following formatting requirements:

• Submit one file(s) only.

• Required file format for main submission: PDF.

• Additional file format for additional deliverables: Not applicable.

• Additional file requirements: None.

Other details:

• Font size 12

• Double-spaced

• Number of words: Between 1500 and 2500

All refencing and citations require Harvard referencing style.

LEARN ING OUT COMES

• To have an in-depth understanding of effective decision-making processes within a business context

marked by uncertainty, risk, danger, opportunity, and growth.

• To identify and apply interpretive and analytical methods and tools for effective analysis and decision-

making.

• To critically appreciate the framework of problem analysis with the context of decision-making.

ASSESSMENT CR IT ER IA

Task 1.1:

Task Accomplished (A) Proficient (B) Partially proficient (C)

Borderline (D) Fail (F)

Discussion Forum

Student’s contribution is relevant, original, and correct from the Decision Analysis point of view.

Student’s contribution provides a valuable definition of goal, alternatives, or metrics.

Student’s contribution is relevant and correct from the Decision Analysis point of view, with minor errors or shortcomings.

Student’s contribution provides a valuable definition of goal, alternatives, or metrics.

Student’s contribution is relevant and partially correct from the Decision Analysis point of view, with significant errors or shortcomings.

Student’s contribution provides an imperfect definition of goal, alternatives, or metrics.

Student’s contribution is not relevant nor correct from the Decision Analysis point of view, with significant errors or shortcomings that reveal lack of knowledge or analysis.

Student’s contribution provides an invalid definition of goal, alternatives, or metrics.

Student does not answer or provides incomprehensibl e and irrelevant contribution.

Student’s contribution is not useful.

Task 1.2:

Matching question quiz:

• Faced with a specific quantitative problem, students must link one of four “decision criterions” with

matching solution to the problem.

• Each correct answer is worth 25 points.

• There are no deductions or penalties for wrong answers.

Main task (Task 1.3):

Criteria Accomplished

(A) Proficient (B) Partially

proficient (C) Borderline (D) Fail (F) Weight on

assessment

Problem description

The business decision problem is comprehensively described. The relevance and importance of the decision process is well established and justified. The perceived advantages and disadvantages of each possible choice are clearly outlined.

The business decision problem is well described. The relevance and importance of the decision process is established and justified. The perceived advantages and disadvantages of each possible choice are outlined. Minor shortcomings and/or incoherent statements affect the quality of the description.

The business decision problem is described with significant shortcomings. The relevance and importance of the decision process is established but not well justified. The perceived advantages and disadvantages of each possible choice are not completely clear. Important shortcomings and/or incoherent statements affect the quality of the description.

The business decision problem is affected by serious shortcomings. The relevance and importance of the decision process are not clear. The perceived advantages and disadvantages of each possible choice are not clear. A generally confusing description is given.

The description does not correspond to a proper business decision problem. Relevance of decision process is missing. Alternatives or choices are not correctly described. description is given.

40%

Decision Analysis Framework

The framework for the decision analysis process has been correctly and logically established. The scope and the goal of the decision process are clearly identified. Different feasible alternatives are outlined. At least one relevant metric for measuring the quality of the decision process outcome is identified.

The framework for the decision analysis process is generally correct and coherent. The scope and the goal of the decision process are clearly identified. Different feasible alternatives are outlined. At least one relevant metric for measuring the quality of the decision process outcome is identified. Minor shortcomings, such as missing alternatives or the inclusion of unfeasible alternatives.

The framework for the decision analysis process is partially correct. Important errors or shortcomings affect the definition of the scope and the goal of the decision process, feasible alternatives, and/or metrics for measuring the quality of the decision process outcome.

The framework for the decision analysis process is affected by serious shortcomings. Scope, goal, alternatives and/or metrics are not always properly defined or are not coherent with problem description. General idea still comes across.

The framework for the decision analysis process is missing or generally incorrect and incoherent. Scope, goal, alternatives, and metrics are not properly defined, or are not coherent with problem description. If provided, framework is not useful in the context of decision analysis.

40%

Description of uncertainty and risk

Relevant sources of uncertainty and risk are described. The nature and importance of these uncertainties and risks are analyzed. The possibility of quantifying these uncertainties and risks is addressed in a coherent and well supported manner.

Relevant sources of uncertainty and risk are described. The nature and importance of these uncertainties and risks are analyzed with minor shortcomings. The possibility of quantifying these uncertainties and risks is addressed in a generally correct and justified manner.

Relevant sources of uncertainty and risk are described. The nature and importance of these uncertainties and risks are analyzed with important shortcomings. The possibility of quantifying these uncertainties and risks is addressed but the reasoning is partially incorrect.

Relevant sources of uncertainty and risk are partially or incorrectly described. The nature and importance of these uncertainties and risks is not completely clear. The possibility of quantifying these uncertainties and risks is not addressed or is incorrectly analyzed.

No proper sources of uncertainty and risk are described. The nature and importance of these uncertainties is not clear. The possibility of quantifying these uncertainties and risks is not addressed or is incorrectly analyzed.

20%